Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
Private sources report that Secretary General Trọng has partly recovered and is paralyzed in one
arm.
2
The Politburo could appoint a caretaker party leader from now until the 13th national
party congress scheduled for early 2021. It should be recalled that when party leader
Lê Duẩn passed away in July 1986 he was replaced by a former party chief, Trường
Chinh. Six months later, at the sixth national party congress, reformist Nguyễn Văn
Linh was elected party Secretary General.
If the Politburo opts for a caretaker seniority should weigh heavily. This suggests -
however improbable - that Tòng Thị Phóng (first deputy chair of the National
Assembly) or Nguyễn Thiện Nhân (party secretary of Hồ Chí Minh City) could be likely
candidates. Phóng has government experience and would be the first female party
leader.
The appointment of a caretaker would buy the party at least twenty months to decide
who to nominate as the next party Secretary General.
Until we know the precise nature and severity of Trọng’s reported illness, all this is idle
speculation. Trọng might recover in the coming months and retire at the next
congress.
One indication of the state of Secretary General Trọng’s health is whether is able to
address the opening and closing sessions of the next Central Committee plenum
normally held in May.
Secretary General Trọng was invited by President Donald Trump in February to visit
Washington this year. The ball is now in Vietnam's court to halt speculation and to
give a report on the status of Nguyễn Phú Trọng’s health.