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Uganda Economic
Outlook 2018
www.pwc.com/ug
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2 PwC
Uganda’s economy is projected to grow by 5.0%
to 5.50% this financial year 2017/18 and the
outlook for the future is even more positive
1
Bank of Uganda – Monetary Policy Statement February 2018
2
Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC
3
UBOS 107th Issue – Economic Indicators for Q1
4
UBOS Press Release on Quarterly GDP
4 PwC
The sluggish growth of the economy in the last
three years has resulted in a slight deterioration
of the poverty levels in the country
The recent slowdown of the economy has The key reason for the increase in poverty is that
5
UBOS National Household Survey Report
Uganda’s banking system is very sound rates continues to show rigidity towards
and strong. All banks are comfortably
meeting their minimum core capital
requirements of 8% risk weighted assets.
5.6% responding to the downward BOU central
Bank Rate (CBR) movements. This
rigidity may be further proof that the CBR
The rate of non-performing loans across is simply a signal rate, and has little effect
In addition, all the banks have adequate the banking sector has dropped from a on commercial banks’ decisions.
liquidity buffers as reflected by the ratio high of 10.5% in December 2016 to a Therefore, commercial banks are also
of their liquid assets to total deposits. As low of 5.6% in December 2017 being cautious and mindful of the
of June 2017, the ratio of liquid assets to prevailing market conditions and future
total deposits across the industry was an As a result of these improvements, we are economic expectations.
average of 50.1%. This is two and a half beginning to see signs of recovery in the
times the minimum requirement of 20%. private sector credit and borrowings. The This, coupled with the fact that the
recovery is being driven mainly by growth banking sector is still recovering from its
Credit risk management has also of credit to agriculture, trade and poor performance due to the economic
improved greatly. Currently the average personal loans. Credit to the mortgaging, slowdown of FY2016/17 partly explain
non-performing loan across the industry building and services sector remains the slowdown in credit growth especially
is below 5%. This is a major improvement subdued, although it is also showing some in the first half of 2017. Structural
from the rate of 10.5% as of December signs of recovery compared to the rigidities within the banking sector
2016. The Manufacturing sector was the negative trends we saw in FY2016/17. translate to high costs of borrowing and
best performing where NPLs declined continue to weigh down credit growth.
considerably. Agriculture still remains as Despite these signs of improvement, the
one of the sectors with the highest NPLs6. commercial bank prime lending interest Banks in Uganda are very vital to the
country’s financial system and economic
Trend of Non-Performing Loans in Uganda growth. They are the main source of
credit and have a direct impact on the
level of investment and expenditure in the
Non-performing loans (%)
12%
economy.
10%
Therefore, in order for the government’s
8% current expansionary monetary policy to
6% result in a boost in economic growth
through increased private investment, the
4% reduction in the CBR must translate to a
2% reduction in the cost of credit.
0%
June June December September December
2015 2016 2016 2017 2017
Years
Source: Bank of Uganda
6
BOU State of the Economy report - March 2018
6 PwC
The latest data on inflation released by UBOS
indicates that both headline and core inflation
declined to 2.1% and 1.7% respectively
Sep
Oct
Dec
Feb
Feb
Aug
Aug
Nov
Jan
Jan
May
May
Apr
Apr
Jun
Jun
Mar
Jul
Jul
goods inflation that declined to 1.6% in
February compared to 2.3% for the year 2016 2017 2018
ending January 2018. Other goods was
Years Soure: UBOS
predominately driven by sugar which
dropped by -11.5% in February compared
to -4.0% in the year ended January 2018. The Bank of Uganda CBR rate trend for the last 2 years
18% 16%
Bank of Uganda is forecasting the near 16%
term inflation to remain within the target 14%
of 5% or below, assuming no sharp 12%
fluctuations in local currency, and the 10% 9.00%
CBR
December
October
October
August
August
June
June
February
February
April
April
7
UBOS CPI publication for February 2018
Whereas the CBR has fallen by a Put differently, if the spread is large, it
cumulative 7.0% since April 2016, results in low credit availability due to
commercial bank lending rates have depressed savings. On the other hand,
fallen by only 5.0%, from an average of high lending rates also lead to a
24% in June 2016 to the current average reduction in credit demand and the
lending rate of about 19% for shilling money supply as a result of the high cost
denominated loans. of borrowing.
On the other hand the average deposit The prevailing high lending rates in the
rates have declined from 12% in market in part reflect the country’s high
December 2016 to 8.5% today. This cost of doing business as well as the
means that the spread between lending heightened risk aversion in banks caused
and deposit rates has ranged at about by high levels of non-performing loans
11.5% over the same period. (NPL).
20%
Commercial Bank Prime Lending rate (%)
25
24
23 Commercial bank prime lending rate
Lending rate (%)
17-Dec
17-Oct
17-Feb
16-Dec
17-Aug
17-Jan
17-Jan
16-Oct
17-May
16-Aug
17-Jun
16-May
17-Jul
17-Apr
16-Nov
17-Mar
16-Jun
16-Apr
16-Jul
Despite this optimism, the prevailing low and may worsen the credit challenge by
business confidence, the ongoing political crowding out private sector borrowing, Weaknesses within the public
situation in South Sudan and its impact thus delaying the growth benefits of investment management system,
on particular segments of the country’s public investment. poor project implementation
exports sector, as well as the high cost of and execution are affecting
credit will continue to weigh in on Overall, Uganda’s medium-term growth growth as the economic benefits
private domestic investment. potential remains positive. We forecast expected from these projects are
growth to rise to 6.0% and above in FY delayed.
Reliance on rain-fed agriculture remains 2018/19. The planned development of
a major downside risk to real GDP the oil sector and the accompanying
growth. This is because of the increase in infrastructure investments
importance of agriculture to the economy have the potential to drive growth to
as a whole. 6.5% by FY 2019/20 and above 7.0%
when oil production begins.
Agriculture is the main source of income
to the majority of the population, it is The government currently estimates first
very critical to the food security in the oil by the end of 2020 and the private
country as it is the main source of export sector oil companies currently operating
revenue for the country. in the sector are expected to make their
final investment decision by the end of
Weaknesses within the public investment this financial year.
management framework mean that
government execution of development
expenditure remains a challenge. Delays
in the completion of public investment
projects prevent the productivity that
could be gained by the economy from
enhanced infrastructure, which in turn
slows down growth.
Uganda’s public debt burden as a than 12% of government expenditure, as main source of foreign exchange for the
percentage of GDP has risen by 12.7% in well as the risk of the exchange rate country with which government meets its
the last four years from 25.9% in FY depreciation. external debt service obligations. In
2012/13 to 38.6% as at the end of FY addition, there are perceptions in the
2016/17. This figure is expected to The other risk that was identified was the market that Uganda may not be able to
continue rising and is projected to peak slow growth in exports, which is the service its rising debt levels.
at 42.6% in FY 2019/20 before declining
to 28.4% by FY 2024/25.
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FY
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8
Ministry of Finance – Debt Sustainability Analysis Report December 2016
9
Bank of Uganda – State of the Economy December 2016 Report
10
National Budget Framework Paper for 2018/19
10 PwC
For debt to remain sustainable, the real GDP
has to grow at a rate higher than the average
real interest rate on government debt
60
to bilateral and commercial creditors
respectively. Multilateral lenders are 40
23.4 26.6
dominated by the International 20 12.6 14.5
Development Association (IDA), a 0 0 0 2.6
0
concessional lender.
2013/14 2014/15 201516 2016/17
IDA`s share in total public debt has been FY
on a downward trend since FY2013/14,
from 58.3% to 45.2% as at the end of Multilateral Creditors Bilateral Creditors Commercial Banks
FY2016/2017. China a non-concessional Source: Ministry of Finance
lender currently dominates the bilateral
creditors. Its share in total public debt Uganda, like many countries in sub- development banks and organizations to
has been increasing since FY2013/14 Saharan Africa, is experiencing a shift non-concessional / commercial
when it was 7.7% and to a high of 20.3% from highly concessional social sector borrowing, in order to fund its public
as at the end of FY2016/17. borrowing from international infrastructure projects.
Non-concessional borrowing is typically more In addition, the ideal debt mix should contain
costly and offers shorter grace and repayment more of domestic debt rather than reliance on
periods. This in turn increases the debt service external debt, in order to ensure long term
burden on the budget. This is what we are economic stability.
currently experiencing in Uganda. The high cost
of this non concessional borrowing is also Likewise, for debt to remain sustainable, it is
affecting the resources available to other sectors, critical that real GDP continues to grow at a rate
such as health and education11. higher than the average real interest rate on
government debt.
An ideal mix for a country should be more
concessional debt, as a lot of non-concessional An increase in the average real interest rate or a
debt is likely to affect the economy as foreign decline in real GDP growth would pose a serious
financing from commercial banks is relatively risk to debt sustainability.
expensive, leading to an increase in the country’s
debt servicing costs.
12 PwC
Despite the recent increase in the debt to GDP
ratio, the risk of debt stress in Uganda is low
To ensure that the burden of public entire project cycle including the introducing targeted measures
debt does not hinder the growth of carrying out of high quality aimed at widening the tax base by
economy, we recommend that the feasibility studies, proper and timely bringing the very large informal
government should... procurement and contracting sector into the tax net,
procedures, funds allocation, project
a) re-affirm its commitment to ensuring e) borrow only for development
selection, monitoring and evaluation,
that the public debt to GDP remains expenditure, and not for recurrent
below the 50% threshold prescribed c) restructure the public debt mix expenditure such as public sector
by both the EAC Monetary Union wherever possible by either reducing salaries and wages,
Protocol and the Public Debt on the external foreign borrowing, or
f) wherever possible and practical,
Management Framework (PDMF), having a larger percentage of
involve the private sector in project
external borrowing on concessional
b) resource, support and build capacity identification, development and if
loans,
in the Project Monitoring Unit in the possible funding through the PPP
Office of the Prime Minister to ensure d) take concrete steps to reduce budget model, as this will reduce the strain
that the Unit oversees the proper, deficit through better domestic on the public finances,
timely and efficient implementation revenue mobilization, by continuing
g) improve governance and
of all government public with the ongoing improvements in
accountability, take measures to
infrastructure projects across the tax administration as well as
reduce wastage and corruption,
prosecute all corrupt public officials
and confiscate all wealth obtained
through corrupt means,
h) partner with the various private
sector organisations and commit to
provide all the support needed by the
private sector to diversify the
economy as well as build an export
driven economy,
14 PwC
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