California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics

March 2019
 Sales Dipped Slightly from February after
Double-Digits Monthly Surge
California, March 2019 Sales: 397,210 Units, -8.2% YTD, -6.3% YTY
700,000

600,000
Mar-18: Mar-19:
423,990 397,210
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 California Home Sales down 11 Months in a
Row
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Bay Area Sales Experienced Double-Digits
Decline again in the latest month
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10% -10.8%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10
Jan-11

Sep-11
Jan-12

Sep-12
Jan-13

Sep-13
Jan-14

Sep-14
Jan-15

Sep-15
Jan-16

Sep-16
Jan-17

Sep-17
Jan-18

Sep-18
Jan-19
May-18
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 So. California Sales Declined by More than
10 percent but Partly Due to Seasonality
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10.6%
-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Central Valley Sales Dropped Less than the
Bay Area and So CA
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%

-8.2%
-10%

-20%

-30%
Jan-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Sep-18

Jan-19
May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13

May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
 Sales Declined in All Price Segments
March 2019 (YTY% Chg.) Share by Price Segment
0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

-5% -2.6% $0 - $299k 18.9%

-5.0%
-6.0% -5.9% $300 - $399k 16.2%
-10%
$400 - $499k 14.5%
-15% -13.4%
$500 - $749k 23.6%
-17.3%
-20% $750 - $999k 10.9%
-20.9%
-25% $1,000 - $1,999k 12.2%

$2,000k+ 3.7%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Home Prices Had the Smallest Growth in 7
Years
California, March 2019: $565,880, 5.9% MTM, +0.2% YTY
Mar-18: Mar-19:
P:May-07
$700,000 $564,820 $565,880
$594,530

$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Growth at Lowest Level since Early 2012
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Condo/Townhome Price Bounced Back after
Year-over Year Dip in February
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Mar-18: Mar-19:
$300,000 $460,500 $465,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0
Jan-05

Jan-10

Jan-15
Jun-10
Jun-05

Dec-07

Dec-12

Jun-15

Dec-17
Nov-05

Sep-06

Jul-07

May-08

Nov-10

Sep-11

Jul-12

May-13

Nov-15

Sep-16

Jul-17

May-18
Apr-06

Feb-07

Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09

Apr-11

Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14

Apr-16

Oct-18
Mar-19
Feb-12

Feb-17
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile
California Year-over-Year Price Growth by Quintile (March 2019)
5% 4.3%
4%
3%
2% 1.4%
1%
0.0%
0%
-1%
-2% -1.4%
-1.9%
-3%
-4%
-3.8% -4.0% -3.8%
-4.1%
-5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 List Price Suggests Minimal but Positive
Future Sales Price Growth
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Sales Price Growth Lags List Price Growth by 4-6 Months
40%

30%
YTY% Chg. in Price

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%
Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Apr-17
Jul-17

Jul-18
Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-18
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Reduced-Price Listings
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 32.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -3.9%
California Reduced-Price Listings
50% 10%
32.5%
45% 9%
40% 8%
35% 7%
30% 6%
25% 5%
20% 4%
15% 3.9% 3%
10% 2%
5% 1%
0% 0%
10/1/2010

10/1/2011

10/1/2012

10/1/2013

10/1/2014

10/1/2015

10/1/2016

10/1/2017

10/1/2018
7/1/2016

1/1/2017

7/1/2017
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010

1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011

1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012

1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013

1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014

1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015

1/1/2016
4/1/2016

4/1/2017

1/1/2018
4/1/2018
7/1/2018

1/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price Per Square Foot Had Smallest Growth
since Aug 2015
March 2019: $277, Up 1.8% MTM, Up 0.4% YTY
$400
Mar-19:
$350 Mar-18: $277
$276
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 California Market Velocity and Price Growth

150% 50%

Existing SFR Median Price Growth

40%
100%
30%
20%
Market Velocity

50%
10%
0% 0%
-10%
-50%
-20%
-30%
-100%
-40%
-150% -50%
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Sep-11

May-15
May-09
Sep-09

May-10
Sep-10

May-11

May-12
Sep-12

May-13
Sep-13

May-14
Sep-14

Sep-15

May-16
Sep-16

May-17
Sep-17

May-18
Sep-18
Price Growth Market Velocity Market Velocity (12-Month Trailing Avg.)

SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales Price -to-List Price Highest in 6 Months,
but Biggest YTY Drop since Oct 2014
March 2019: 98.5%, +0.5% MTM, -1.5% YTY
Mar-18:
Mar-19:
100.0%
98.5%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
101.0%

100.5%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

100.0% 99.8%
99.6%
99.5% 99.5%
99.5% 99.3%

99.0% 98.9%

98.5%

98.0%

97.5%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Mar-18 Mar-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Time on Market Fell Below 30 Days for the
1st Time in 4 Months
California, March 2019: 25.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Median Time on Market by Percentile
California Median Time on Market by Quintile
30 28
25 25 24 24
25
20 19
20 17 17 17
16 16 16 15
15 14 13 13 14
12 12
10

0
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Percentile

Mar-18 Mar-19

SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Dipped after Reaching
Highest in Three Years
March 2018: 2.9 Months; March 2019: 3.6 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Had Smallest Growth since July
2018
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%

30%

20%
13.8%
10%

0%

-10%

-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Price vs. Price/Sq. Ft

Mar 2019
Median Price (YTY% Chg.) Median Price/Sq. Ft. (YTY% Chg.)
10%

3.6% 3.6% 3.1%

0%
-0.1% -0.3%
-1.1%
-1.4% -1.7% -2.5% -1.5%
-2.6%
-4.6% -4.3%
-6.6% -5.6%
-10% -7.7% -7.5%
-10.6%

-20%

SERIES: Regional median prices and price per sq. ft.

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Supply Improved in All Price Segments
Mar 2019
Active Listing
30%

23.5%
20.4%
20%
15.1%
13.4% 13.8%

10% 7.6%

1.4%
0%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Improved from Year Ago as Sales
Continued to Fall
9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0
2.6
2.0

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions

Mar-18 Mar-19
30,000
26,966

25,000 23,722

20,000
Active Listings

15,000

10,000 8,517 9,345

6,155
5,000 4,490
2,244 2,407

0
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Mar 2019

Sales Active Listings

40% 37.1%

30%
Year-to-Year % Chg

20%
13.7%
9.7%
10% 7.3%

0%

-10% -8.2% -7.4%

-10.8% -10.6%
-20%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Inventory Index Highest in Millions
California Unsold Inventory Index by Segment
12 11.3

10
8.4
8

5.9
6
4.6 4.5
4.0 4.1
4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6
2.93.1 3.2 3.0 2.9
2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8
2

Mar-18 Mar-19
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 Active Listings by Month
California Active Listings by Month
70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

2018 2019
 Mortgage Payment Declined for the 1st
time in 32 months
30 Yr. FRM California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
6%
20%
5%
4.44%
4.27% 15%
4%

YTY% Chg.
10%
3%

5%
2%

0%
1%

-5%
0%

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Oct-16
Jul-16

Apr-17
Jul-17

Jul-18
Apr-16

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth

SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18
in at least 27 months

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19
Pending Sales Had 1st Year-Over-Year Growth
 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

-50%
-45%
-40%
-35%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%

-30%
0%
Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18
Pending Sales – Under $200k

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19
 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales

-15%
-10%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%

0%
5%
Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18
Pending Sales - $1M +

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19