Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science

6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Fall 2010)

Tutorial 1 Solutions

September 16/17, 2010

1. If A ⊂ B, then P(B ∩ A) = P(A) But we know that in order for A and B to be independent,
P(B∩A) = P(A)P(B). Therefore, A and B are independent if and only if P(B) = 1 or P(A) = 0.
This could happen, for example, if B is the universe or if A is empty.

2. This problem is similar in nature to Example 1.24, page 40. In order to compute the success
probability of individual sub-systems, we make use of the following two properties, derived in
that example:

• If a serial sub-system contains m components with success probabilities p1 , p2 ...pm , then

the probability of success of the entire sub-system is given by

P(whole system succeeds) = p1 p2 p3 ...pm

• If a parallel sub-system contains m components with success probabilities p1 , p2 ...pm , then

the probability of success of the entire sub-system is given by

P(whole system succeeds) = 1 − (1 − p1 )(1 − p2 )(1 − p3 )...(1 − pm )

Let P(X → Y ) denote the probability of a successful connection between node X and Y. Then,

P(A → B) = P(A → C)P(C → E)P(E → B) (since they are in series)

P(A → C) = p

P(C → E) = 1 − (1 − p) (1 − P(C → D)P(D → E))

P(E → B) = 1 − (1 − p)2

The probabilities P(C → D), P(D → E) can be similarly computed as

P(C → D) = 1 − (1 − p)3
P(D → E) = p

The probability of success of the entire system can be obtained by substituting the subsystem
success probabilities:

P(A → B) = p (1 − (1 − p)(1 − (1 − (1 − p)3 )p) (1 − (1 − p)2 ).

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 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Fall 2010)

3. The Chess Problem.

(a) i. P(2nd Rnd Req) = (0.6)2 + (0.4)2 = 0.52

ii. P(Bo Wins 1st Rnd) = (0.6)2 = 0.36
iii. P(Al Champ) = 1 − P(Bo Champ) − P(Ci Champ)

= 1 − (0.6)2 ∗ (0.5)2 − (0.4)2 ∗ (0.3)2 = 0.8956

2
(b) i. P(Bo Challenger|2nd Rnd Req) = (0.6) 0.36
0.52 = 0.52 = 0.6923
ii. P(Al Champ|2nd Rnd Req)
= P(Al Champ|Bo Challenger, 2nd Rnd Req) × P(Bo Challenger|2nd Rnd Req)
+ P(Al Champ|Ci Challenger, 2nd Rnd Req) × P(Ci Challenger|2nd Rnd Req)
= (1 − (0.5)2 ) × 0.6923 + (1 − (0.3)2 ) × 0.3077
= 0.7992

(0.6)2 ∗(0.5)
(c) P((Bo Challenger)|{(2nd Rnd Req) ∩ (One Game)}) = (0.6)2 ∗(0.5)+(0.4)2 ∗(0.7)

(0.6)2 (0.5)

= 0.2920 = 0.6164

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6.041 / 6.431 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability

Fall 2010

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