258 Relisilty evalustion of power systems
1e random sequence of failure event se poss
be expected given
average behaviour
ible. They are use
system as a function of
input data to an economic eval
of such schemes.
8.6 Inclusion of weather effects
8.6.1 Concepts
system networks are exposed to vi
‘component can be mai
favourable weather con
(and any other en
ion. During 1
ly and the probabi
very much greater than that in favourable w
is known as the bunching effect due to the fact that component
ability indices evaluated for a load point can be over-oy
and consequently very misleading.
It should be noted that the techniques used to account for failure
bunching do not imply that there is dependence between the failures of
components. Although the components may reside within a common
environment which affects the failure rates of the components, the actual
failure process of overlapping outages still assumes the component fail-
ures to be independent, There is no suggestion therefore that the process
is @ common mode or dependent failure, onl 1¢ independent failure
‘are enhanced because of the common environment.
js also worth noting that, although the following techniques are
described in relation to a common weather environment, they are equally
applicable to failure processes in other types of varying environment such
as temperature, stress, etc
8.6.2 Weather state modelling
The failure rate of a component is @ continuous fi
Which suggests that it should be described either by a
‘nv
Distribution systems—parallel and meshed networks 259
rnough to make the s
E Standard [7] subdivides the weather em
id
echniqns have been
reason Why two-state weather mo
past. The criterion for deciding into
must be placed is dependent on
nents. Those weather conditions having little or
rate should be classed as normal and those h:
classed as adverse. Examples of adverse weat
tzales, typhoons, snow and ice.
h category each ty
spact on the failure rate of compo-
of weather
effect on the failure
a large effect should be
include lightning storms,
periods of normal and adverse weather must be collated even if no
ures occur during any given period. This point cannot be stressed 100
greatly since it is of little use allocating a particular failure event to
normal weather or adverse
aspect requires cooperation between the utility and the appropriate
weather bureau or weather centre.J Failure to collect such st
ill mean significant errors,
variation as depicted in Fig. 8.4.
‘The pattern of durations of weather can be co
process which can then be described by expected values,
sred a random
.e. expected
duration of normal weather is given by N= 5; n/T and expected duration
oe | Sees) = 1
s eres
Fig. 84 Chronological var