262 Reliability evaluation of power systems 8.6.4 Evaluation methods The first contribution [10, 11] to the evaluation of a two-state weather model proposed a set of approximate equations for use with a network reduction method. These, although a major step forward, contained certain weaknesses which were identified from a Markov analysis (12] of the same problem. Subsequently a modified set of equations were pro- used as part of @ network reduction process or, more fruitfully, in association with a failure modes (minimal cut set) analysis. One funda- ‘must not be used to combine’ sequenti nents. Considerable errors would accrue, the general case of a secon¢ overlapping a forced outage and a forced 0 nance outage. These equations can be enhanced by sul ‘outage into permanent, temporary and transient using the concepts described in Section 8.5 and by extending the concepts of second-order events to third- and higher-order events. (These extended equations are shown in Appendix 3.) 8.6.5 Overlapping forced outages i ices associated with overlap- stablished by considering four separate cases. These are: ccurs during normal weather, second failure occurs during normal weather; (b) initial failure occurs during normal weather, second failure occurs uring adverse weather; I failure occurs during adverse weather, second failure occurs 1g normal weather; tial failure occurs during adverse Weather, second failure occurs yy and the concepts of overlapping events described by Equation ring Systems. ‘Two constraints are imposed on the evaluation process: repair can be done during adverse weather; repair cannot be done during adverse weather. Distribution systems—ps meshed networks 263 (i Repair can be done during adverse weather * (@) Both failures oceur during normal weather ‘The contribution of this case to the overall failure rate is given by of component 1 by the failure of component 2)] In this case the ‘exposure time’ is not simply the repair time of the failed ‘component because repair can proceed into the adverse weather period. ‘The second failure must occur during the proportion of the repair time that takes place in the normal weather period, i. the “exposure time’ is the time associated with the overlapping event of repair and normal weather and this is equal to Nr/(N+r). ‘Therefore N Nn Nn) sop Gat) Owe] (e219 2 and if en then aa AG Dadan) + a0u0 = otal tral 8.27%) =aypg alt) (8.27) Equation (8.27) therefore reduces to Equation (8.1) if only one ‘weather state is considered. (®) Initial failure in normal weather, second failure in adverse weather ‘The same principle is used in this case with the addition that the second failure can occur only if the weather changes before the second failure ‘occurs: Consequently the failure rate of the second component is weigh- ted by the probability that, during the repair time of the frst component, the weather changes from normal to adverse. Also the ‘exposure ich the second component must fail is the overlapping time the repair of the first component and the duration of ‘Therefore weptelnloss)en@\oig] am