BASIC CONCEPT

1. The probability that it will not rain in the evening is 85%. What is the
probability that it will rain in the evening?
Solution:
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 + 𝑃𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 = 1
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 + 0.85 = 1
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 = 1 − 0.85
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 = 0.15 𝑜𝑟 15%

2. A game is played by two players using a dice. If the rules are set up so that
one player always win when he rolls an odd number and the other player wins
when he rolls an even number, what are each player’s chances of winning?

Solution: each number between 1 and 6 has an equal chance of being rolled.
Hence, the chance of rolling any one number is 1 in 6:
1 1 1 1 1 1
𝑃1 = , 𝑃2 = , 𝑃3 = , 𝑃4 = , 𝑃5 = , 𝑃6 =
6 6 6 6 6 6
The probabilities of rolling odd number are
𝑃1 , 𝑃3 , 𝑃5
The overall probability of rolling an odd number is
𝑃𝑜𝑑𝑑 = 𝑃1 + 𝑃2 + 𝑃3
1 1 1
𝑃𝑜𝑑𝑑 = + +
6 6 6
3
𝑃𝑜𝑑𝑑 =
6
The probabilities of rolling an even number and an odd number must be 1.
Hence, the probability of rolling an even number is
𝑃𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 + 𝑃𝑜𝑑𝑑 = 1
3
𝑃𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 + = 1
6
3
𝑃𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 = 1 −
6
3
𝑃𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 =
6
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

3. If the probability that it rains but does not snow tomorrow is 0.30 and the
probability that is snows but does not rain is 0.40, what is the probability of
either rain or snow, but not both, tomorrow?

Solution:
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 + 𝑃𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 0.3 + 0.4
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 0.7
Hence, there is a 70% chance of either rain or snow, but not both.
 4. Rolling two dice, what is the probability of rolling a 6 or an 11?

Solution: there are 36 different number combinations possible between the two
1
dice. Hence, the chance of rolling any one combination is 36. And 6 can be
rolled in five different ways:

Dice 1 Dice 2
1 5
2 4
3 3
4 2
5 1

Therefore, the probability of drawing a 6 is

5
𝑃6 =
36

Similiarly, an 11 can be rolled in two different ways:

Dice 1 Dice 2
5 6
6 5

The probability of rolling an 11is

2
𝑃11 =
36
To determine the probability of rolling a 6 or 11, we use the formula for mutually
exclusive event:

5 2 7
𝑃6 𝑜𝑟 11 =
+ = = 0.194
36 36 36
Therefore, on the average, 19.4% of the time, or 194 of 1000 rolls of two dice,
either a 6 or an 11 will be obtained.

NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

5. On Easter Sunday, it may rain or snow, or it may rain and snow on the same
day. The probability of rain on Easter Sunday 70% (𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 =0.7), and the
probability of snow is 40% (𝑃𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 =0.4). What is the probability that three will
be either rain or snow, or rain and snow, on Easter Sunday, assuming that a
combination of rain and snow occur 20% of the time (𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 0.2)

Solution:
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 0.2
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛, 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤, 𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 + 𝑃𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 − 𝑃 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤
 𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛, 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤, 𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.2
𝑃𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛, 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤, 𝑜𝑟 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑤 = 0.9

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
6. If during 2000 hours (h) of operation of an amplifier, the probability of
transistor Q failing is 5% and that of diode CR is 9%, what is the probability of
a failure of both Q and CR, during 2000 hr of operation (the failure of either
device is assumed to be independent of the failure on the other)

Solution:
𝑃𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑅 = 𝑃𝑄 × 𝑃𝐶𝑅
𝑃𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑅 = 0.05 × 0.09
𝑃𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶𝑅 = 0.0045
The probability of both the transistor and the diode failing during the 2000 h of
operation is 0.45% (or 45 in 10000 case)

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
7. If a class of 40 students there are 25 boys and 15 girls. Of the 25 boys, 10
come from religious homes, and of the 15 girls 8 come from religious homes.
What is the probability 𝑃𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅 that a student elected randomly by lottery is
both a boy and from a religious home?

Solution: let us make a matrix that combines all the data

Boys Girls Total
Religious 10 8 18
Non-religious 15 7 22
Total 25 15 40
 25
The probability of drawing a boy is 𝑃𝐵 = 40
15
The probability of drawing a girl is 𝑃𝐺 = 40
18
The probability of drawing a religious person is 𝑃𝑅 = 40
22
The probability of drawing a non-religious person is 𝑃𝑁𝑅 = 40
The probability that the person drawn is religious, given that he is a boy, is
10
𝑃𝑅|𝐵 = 25
The probability that the person drawn is religious, given that she is a girl, is
8
𝑃𝑅|𝐺 = 15
The probability that the person drawn is a boy, given that he is religious, is
10
𝑃𝐵|𝑅 =
18
The probability that the person drawn is a boy, given that he is religious, is
8
𝑃𝐺|𝑅 = 18

Therefore, the probability that the randomly selected student is both religious
and a boy is
𝑃𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃𝑅 × 𝑃𝐵|𝑅
18 10
𝑃𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = ×
40 18
𝑃𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 0.25
An alternative way to get the same result is to find the probability that the
randomly selected student is both boy and religious, is
𝑃𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅 = 𝑃𝐵 × 𝑃𝑅|𝐵
25 10
𝑃𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅 = ×
40 25
𝑃𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅 = 0.25

8. Based on problem 7, what is the probability that a student selected at random

is both a girl and from nonreligious home?

Solution:
22
𝑃𝑁𝑅 =
40
7
𝑃𝐺|𝑁𝑅 =
22
22 7
𝑃𝑁𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺 = ×
40 22
7
𝑃𝑁𝑅 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐺 =
40
9.
Ilmu Manajemen Rekayasa Total
pengetahuan
Pria 250 350 200 800
Wanita 100 50 50 200
Total 350 400 250 1000
Misalkan:
S1 = siswa adalah pria
S2 = siswa adalah wanita
C1 = siswa adalah dalam kurikulum ilmu pengetahuan
C2 = siswa adalah dalam kurikulum manajemen
C3 = siswa adalah dalam kurikulum rekayasa

Berapakah P(S1), P(S2), P(C1), P(C2), P(C3), P(C3/S2)

800
𝑃𝑆1 =
1000
200
𝑃𝑆2 =
1000
350
𝑃𝐶1 =
1000
400
𝑃𝐶2 =
1000
250
𝑃𝐶3 =
1000
𝑃𝐶3 𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑢 𝑆2 = 𝑃𝐶3 + 𝑃𝑆2
250 200
𝑃𝐶3 𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑢 𝑆2 = +
1000 1000
450
𝑃𝐶3 𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑢 𝑆2 =
1000

PERMUTASI
10. How many three-digit numbers can be formed from the number 1, 2, 3, 4 and
5 if each number can be repeated?

Solution:
The first place can be filled in five ways, the second place can also be filled in
five ways and so can the third place. Hence, we can form
5 × 5 × 5 = 125 different numbers

11. How many four-digit number can be formed from the number 1 to 9?

Solution:
There is no provision for repeating any number within any four-digit of
number. We can thus use the standard expression with n = 9 and r = 4.
𝑛! 9! 9!
nPr = (𝑛−𝑟)! = (9−4)! = 5! = 9 × 8 × 7 × 6 = 3024 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
 COMBINATIONS
12. In how many ways can a team of 9 be selected from 12 people?
Solution:
This is evidently a problem of selection and not of arrangement, as the
assignment of positions is not considered. Therefore, we use combination
equation with n = 12 and r = 9
𝑛! 12! 12×11×10
nCr = 𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)! = 9!×3! = = 220 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
3×2

13. From 5 men and 4 women, in how many ways can we selected a group of 3
men and 2 women?

Solution:
a. We can select 3 men from 5 men in 5C3 ways
b. We can select 2 men from 4 men in 4C2 ways
By the fundamental principle of selection we can do (a) and (b) in 5C3 x 4C2.
Thus, the number of possible selection is
5! 4!
5C3 x 4C2=(3!(5−3)!) × (2!(4−2)!)
5×4 4×3
=( )×( )
2! 2
= 60

14. From 6 men and 5 women, how many committee of 8 members can be
formed when each committee is to contain at least 3 women?

Solution:
The condition of the problem is satisfied if a committee contains
5 men and 3 women selected in 6C5 x 5C3. ways
4 men and 4 women selected in 6C4 x 5C4. ways
3 men and 5 women selected in 6C3 x 5C5. Ways

The number of possible committee is thus:

6C5 x 5C3 + 6C4 x 5C4 + 6C3 x 5C5=155

15. What is the probability of obtaining two tails when flipping two coins?

Solution:
The probability of flipping two tails is 𝑞 2 . Since the probability of flipping one
tail is 0.5, the answer is
𝑞 2 = 0.52 = 0.25

16. What is the probability of obtaining at least one tail when flipping three coins
simultaneously?

17. What is the probability of obtaining three equal coin faces when flipping three
coins?
Solution:
The probability of flipping a head and a tail is 2pq. Accordingly, the answer is
2𝑝𝑞 = 2(0.5)(0.5) = 0.5