Adamson University

College of Engineering

Industrial Engineering Department

A Research Entitled

A MULTI-ECHELON HUMANITARIAN SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL

FOR DISASTER RELIEF: AN EVOLUTIONARY GENETIC ALGORITHM APPROACH

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of Requirements

For The Degree of

Bachelor of Science in Industrial Engineering

Submitted by:

GONZALES, CARL JOSHUEL B.

Submitted to:

DR. VENUSMAR C. QUEVEDO, PIE, ASEAN ENGR.

 CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background of the Study

Disasters are various events that can disrupt the functions of a system
such as social communities. It can slow down the movement within the system of
essential entities; it can cease the existence or utility of a certain function or
entity; or it can prevent the communication of a system to its environments. It can
cost large amounts of money and lives if no preparations for its effects are made.
Alleviation of its effects still incurs large amounts of money specially if not
managed properly. The correct management of assets could mitigate the effects
of the disaster and save the lives of millions of people together with the reduction
of costs.

Figure 1. 1 Types of Disasters (Luthra, Garg, & Haleem, 2015)

Disaster can be natural or human-induced. Natural disasters originate

from natural calamities. These disasters’ characteristics directly depend on the
location of its occurrence. There are natural disasters that can only occur on very
specific locations on the plane; on specified areas on the planet, but these areas
may not be limited to one nation only; and may also occur on each side of the
planet. Most natural calamities are effects of abnormal fluctuations in the
activities happening either meteorologically, atmospherically, or geologically.

Human-induced disasters on the other hand are disasters which are

effects of human activities such as wars. These disasters are possible to prevent
unlike the natural disasters. But some might be difficult because of political
struggles and other social conflicts present within the source of the disaster.
Some human-induced disasters are prevented through the use of laws, rules and
regulations. These laws attempts to neutralize some of the powers of each sides
within a certain set of specific circumstances that is assumed to promote order
and understanding between the sides and to non-participants that might be
affected in the conflict of each side. Human-induced disasters are predictable
enough to be prevented unlike natural disasters. This let the people properly
prepare for its occurrence and also to prevent its effects.

Natural disasters are guaranteed to be unpredictable although, the degree

of unpredictability of these disasters varies depending on its type. Figure 1. 1
shows the different types of natural disasters and some examples that belong in
those categories. There are disasters that can be predicted by observing
organizations within weeks before the disasters occurrence. This allows for
proper evacuation and preparation before the disaster falls. There are also
disasters that can be predicted within the scope of a week or days before the
disaster occurs. Lastly, there are also disasters that can only be predicted within
an hour or a few minutes before the disaster’s occurrence and there are also
disasters that are currently impossible to predict unless it has already occurred.
These types of natural disasters are the most devastating because it only allows
a very short time for preparation: from the recognition of the disaster until the
recourse action to prevent devastation.

The unpredictability of natural disasters and its ability to damage strong

infrastructures make it a highly overwhelming phenomenon even with the proper
preparations made. Thus, the disaster management was developed in order to
deal with the effects of disasters.

In the past recent years, there have been multiple disasters recorded in
history that has greatly damaged the community it affected. Three of the most
recent disasters that is known worldwide would be the earthquake in Haiti;
earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear plant breakdown in Japan; and typhoon Haiyan
which is most widely known in the Philippines as Typhoon Yolanda. These three
disasters have alerted the international community and have made them aware
of the different dangers these disasters may bring upon even with preparations.

International Humanitarian Relief Organizations have act upon the

response to these disasters. They have gathered sufficient relief goods from
different sources such as donations and their own stocks of relief goods.
Different propagandas were made in order to enhance people’s awareness over
the disaster and different people have initiated events in order to raise funds for
the victims.

This fact clearly shows how much cost a humanitarian relief operation
incurs every time it has to respond to the needs of disaster victims. Humanitarian
relief operation incurs large costs because it has to deliver its goods on time
otherwise these goods will be good for nothing.

In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management

Council, or formerly known as the National Disaster Coordinating Council, is the
government agency responsible for preparing and responding to natural
calamities and also human-induced emergencies. This government agency was
enabled in order to fulfill the legislation of Republic Act 10121, also known as the
“Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management act of 2010” (Republic Act
10121, 2010).

One inevitable problem that arises in every humanitarian and disaster

operations management organizations is the ability to respond to the onset of
disaster with high effectiveness and agility. This becomes very prominent in
different countries because disaster only allows little time for planning. The same
is true in the setting of the Philippines. Since the Philippines is an archipelago
and most of its highly capable supply chains are located in its mainland Luzon,
disaster management in the lower part of Visayas and Mindanao are somehow
difficult since trucks should have to travel by sea in order to fulfill the demand
made by the disaster.

1.2. Statement of the Problem

Humanitarian Relief Efforts are costly operations due to the need for
immediate deployment and implementation. Poorly planned disaster
management might not only fail in fulfilling its objectives in aiding the victims but
would incur high costs to aiding organizations. One way to reduce the costs of
disaster management operations is to provide mathematical model which would
be able to reduce the total operation costs; and additionally, to provide better
services through improving the total coverage level of the relief operations. By
accomplishing the model, the study should be able to answer the following:

(i) How does genetic algorithm improve the humanitarian supply chain
model?
(ii) What are the significant factors that affect the efficiency of the disaster
relief operation?
(iii) What are the measures to be used in determining the improvements made
by the model?

1.3. Objective of the Study

The researcher would like to accomplish the following objectives. These

are:
 (i) To determine the improvements made by the genetic algorithm to the
model.
(ii) To determine the significant factors that affects the efficiency of the
disaster relief operation.
(iii) To determine the measures to be used in determining the improvements
made by the model.

1.4. Scope and Delimitations

The research shall be dealing with a three-echelon system, with the first
echelon being made up central distribution centers; depots and staging areas for
the second echelon; relief camps for the third echelon which directly interacts
with the disaster victims. The costs to be considered are the transportation cost,
holding cost, maintenance cost or fixed cost, ordering cost, and capital expense
of setting up the said facilities. The decisions to be considered in the study are
those classified under inventory distribution and allocation.

The research would not consider the competitive aspects of site location.
It shall not consider the closing of central distribution centers once opened. The
perishability of relief goods will not be considered since the time frame is short-
lived. Perishable commodities on the other hand would be considered long-lived
as well. A distribution supply chain would be considered in this study. Therefore,
no production cost would be considered in model formulation. Destruction of
transportation networks and depots are not considered.

1.5. Significance of the Study

Disaster has been going on in different forms which torment the lives and
livelihoods of the people. Huge costs are left by the disaster in the affected areas
in both lives and infrastructures. Because disasters in general are highly
unpredictable, aiding bodies and organizations also face huge costs for their
relief operations if not planned thoroughly. One of the aspects of disaster
management that involves significant cost would be the humanitarian supply
chain. Thus, this study would be significant to the following:

1.5.1. Non-government Organizations

This study can benefit non-government organizations that help disaster

victims since this study focuses on humanitarian supply chain. This study
might be able to assist in assuring the efficiency of their humanitarian efforts:
allowing better service and coverage and ensuring that relief goods arrive to
its desired recipients in the right set of conditions.

1.5.2. Government Organizations

This study can benefit government organizations in facilitating local and

foreign supplies for disaster relief operations concerning their countries.
They can use this study to ensure that disaster victims will acquire the relief
goods coming from different locations in the right set of conditions.

1.5.3. Disaster Victims

This study can help the disaster victims to receive their needed relief
goods at the right time. The study would allow the relief goods arrive at their
respective recipients, the disaster victims, at the right time and the right set
of conditions.
 CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

2.1. Disaster

“The World Health Organization defines a disaster as any occurrence that

causes damage, destruction, ecological disruption, loss of human life, human
suffering, deterioration of health and health services on a scale sufficient to
warrant an extraordinary response from outside the affected community or area”
(Haghani & Oh, 1996 as cited by (Mehmet, 2013)).

2.2. Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief

Humanitarian Aid has received attention especially in the past recent

years. The semi-decade from 2008 to 2013 has been recorded to have reduced
impact of disasters compared from the year 2000 to 2004 (Roh, Pettit, Harris, &
Beresford, 2015). There are reduced numbers of disasters (reduced to about
2100 recorded events) and affected people from 1.4 billion within 2000 to 2004 to
1.03 billion between 2008 to 2013 (about 26 % reduction) (Roh et al., 2015) &
(CRED EM-DAT, 2014).

Disaster Management is the organization and management of resources

and responsibilities for dealing with all humanitarian aspects of emergencies
(IFRC, 2015). There are four basic phases of disaster management. These
phases are: disaster preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery
(McLoughin, 1985). Disaster preparedness a process of ensuring that an
organization has the capability and resources to continue to sustain its essential
functions without being overwhelmed by the demand placed on them
(businessdictionary.com, 2015). A key part to disaster preparedness is pre-
positioning of emergency supplies which gives an advantage of reduced
response time (Galindo & Batta, 2013b; Rawls & Turnquist, 2012). Disaster
mitigation is a set of activities that aims to reduce the risks and effects of
disaster. Disaster can be done either before or after the occurrence of the
disaster. Disaster response is a set of activities performed after the occurrence of
the disaster. The main objective of it is to serve the affected population through
deployment of vital resources. The last phase which is disaster recovery is a set
of activity intended to restitute the normal functioning of the community (Galindo
& Batta, 2013a). It can be assumed that each stage directly affects the efficiency
of the other. Good disaster mitigation and preparedness better the activities done
for disaster response and recovery in several ways especially when these
focused on civic infrastructures such as road networks continuous availability. A
summarized representation of the disaster management life cycle is shown in
Figure 2.1.

Figure 2. 1. Disaster Management Cycle (IFRC, 2015)

Among the four phases or stages of disaster operations management, the

stages which have received most attention to studies would be disaster response
(Galindo & Batta, 2013a) and mitigation (Altay & Green, 2006) with most of the
studies focused on model formulation.
2.2.1. Performance Measure of Humanitarian Logistics

Gosling and Geldermann have discussed four different metrics in order to

assess a particular humanitarian logistics and its decisions. “Effectiveness
metrics measure the output quality reported as a ratio of the actual amount of
outputs to a target value. Impartiality metrics measure the difference in the
effectiveness among the beneficiaries in the disaster area.” The impartiality
metrics captures the principles of fairness and nondiscriminatory measures.
“Productivity metrics measure the transformational efficiency of a configuration
as a ratio of actual outputs to actual inputs. flexibility metrics measure the
transformational efficiency of a configuration over time reported as the amount of
additional inputs necessary to adapt to changes in the demand pattern (action
flexibility) or as the number of different demand patterns a network can serve
without additional inputs (state flexibility).” (Gösling & Geldermann, 2014)

2.2.2. Humanitarian and Commercial Logistics

Table 2.1. Characteristics of Commercial Logistics and Humanitarian Logistics (Holguín-veras,

Jaller, Wassenhove, Pérez, & Wachtendorf, 2012)

Table 2.1 shows the difference between a commercial logistics and a

humanitarian logistics. The main difference between the two types of logistics is
their main objectives (Holguín-veras et al., 2012). The objective of a commercial
supply chain is to minimize the cost. The objective of a humanitarian logistics is
to minimize social costs. Another thing that is different from the two is the
stochasticity of demand. Demand in a commercial supply chain is stochastic but
can its stochasticity can be determined with precision that little amount of error is
perceived especially with the right use of complex and advanced forecasting
tools. On the other hand, the demand in a humanitarian supply chain is
stochastic and cannot be easily determined. As a matter of fact, demand to be
satisfied by humanitarian logistics rises rapidly with the occurrence of the
disaster then stabilizes for a long time together with the disappearance of the
disaster.

2.2.3. Disaster Operations Management

Disaster Operations Management is “the sequence of operations that seek

to prevent or reduce the injuries, fatalities, and damages resulting from a disaster
and to facilitate recovery from such event” (Rawls & Turnquist, 2012). This can
be divided into four phases: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.
Each of these phases has received attention to research studies with varying
degrees. The recent researches within this field has been heavily skewed
towards mathematical modelling and programming and towards the mitigation
and response stages (Galindo & Batta, 2013a; Hoyos, Morales, & Akhavan-
tabatabaei, 2015).

2.2.3.1. Disaster Preparedness

Disaster preparedness is an important part of disaster management. It

focuses on advancements of supplies prior to the disaster in order to improve the
relief operations. Pre-positioning inventory gives a disaster management
organization better response time but can be very costly (Kunz, Reiner, & Gold,
2014). They suggested that a mix of improving disaster management capability
and pre-positioning emergency supplies can reduce lead time while also
significantly reducing costs unlike solely pre-positioning inventory. This stage has
been given enough attention by researchers. It ranks third in the literature review
conducted by Hoyos et al (2015) and Altay and Green (2006) and second in the
review of Galindo and Batta (2013), among the four stages. Based on the study
by Galindo and Batta (2013), most of the researches in this stage are dedicated
to model formulation.

2.2.3.2. Disaster Mitigation

Disaster mitigation is a stage of disaster management which aims to

reduce the consequences of the occurrence of the disaster. This stage have also
received due attention to researchers since it has the most number of dedicated
researches according to the review survey of literature done by Altay and Green
(2006) and Hoyos et al (2015). There are many researches dedicated to this
stage and a few of it are made by the following authors (Iwata, Ito, & Managi,
2014; Mehmet, 2013; Miller, 2015; Paul & Macdonald, 2015).

2.2.4. Disaster Response

Table 2. 2 Decisions in Disaster Management Phase (Gösling & Geldermann, 2014)

 Disaster response is the stage of disaster management focused on
distribution of emergency supplies, medical services, and such which is
performed after the occurrence of the disaster. Since the disasters are difficult to
predict, necessary preparations are made in order to reduce the time needed for
the response to reach its intended recipients (Galindo & Batta, 2013a). Normally,
disasters have intense effects on different types of infrastructures especially
logistic network infrastructures which are vital to the continuous flow of supply
chains and services.

2.2.4.1. Disaster Recovery

This stage is an important phase of disaster management since it is

responsible for the restitution of the community back to its normal condition.
Ironically, this stage has received the least amount of researches in the available
review surveys conducted. This phase involves the reconstruction of damaged
infrastructures, construction of replacement of damaged facilities which are
beyond repair, long-term aid to affected families, and removal of debris are part
of this phase. Since there is little number of researches that focuses on this
stage, there are little amounts of literature dedicated for this which could be able
to assist researchers far from the affected location to understand the underlying
problems which are part of this stage. Multiple authors have already argued that
future researches for disaster management should shift towards this stage
especially in debris removal and infrastructure repair (Hoyos et al., 2015).

2.2.5. Three-Echelon Humanitarian Supply Chain

The use of three-echelon gives more flexibility to the relief operation. In

the work of Galindo and Batta (2013), they used three echelons in their network.
The first would be the main distribution center (MDC), the next would be the
potential supply point (SP), and the last would be the demand point (DP)
(Galindo & Batta, 2013b). The network relationship of the three was flexible. The
MDC can deploy relief towards either the SP or the DP if it is necessary. This
allowed continuity of operation if ever one of the SP was destroyed during the
disaster event.

Three-echelon network also gives the supply chain wider coverage

through dispersion of inventory further in the network. In a work of Minic et al
(2014), they utilized a three-echelon network comprised of suppliers, satellites
(S), and customers (C). In the first echelon which is the suppliers, there is a far
supply node and a close or local supply node. The far supply node is considered
to have unlimited inventory and capacity while the local supply node has limited,
but large capacity. The next echelon which is the satellites has a smaller capacity
than the close supply node. Although for each close supply node, there can be
many satellites linked to each. The last echelon would be the customers which
like the satellites, has smaller capacity than its previous echelon but also greater
in numbers. This network allowed the inventory to be positioned independently
according to the potential demand at an area or as advised by the management.
With this, the coverage level can be improved without increasing the number of
inventory.

2.2.6. Scenario planning

Scenarios are “hypotheses that describe a range of possibilities for the

future – not predictions”(“Introduction to Scenario Planning,” 2007). Rich and
data-driven, scenarios allow decision makers to make decisions presently that
would have desirable effects in the near future. Scenarios help overcome the
possibility of oversimplifying the future by planning for multiple possible futures.
 Scenario planning is a technique which is used “(to provide) a means for
ordering perceptions about how future may play out and (to determine) what
strategic decisions today offer the best chance of success tomorrow”
(“Introduction to Scenario Planning,” 2007). The number of scenarios to be
perceived may vary depending on the size affected by the scenario and the
number of possible events that may happen in reality. Scenario planning allows
the researchers to look at possible effects of each event to the results of the
solution.

Scenarios are closely related to strategic planning which can be put into
context by the background of each of the strategic management and planning
views (Cherkmack, Lynham, & Ruona, 2001). The views are: Rationalist School,
the evolutionary school, and the processual school. The rationalist school
dictates that an elite few formulates a strategic plan. The evolutionary school
thinks that strategy is a “process of random experimentation and filtering out of
the unsuccessful” (van der Heijden, 1997). The processual school thinks on the
other hand that members can make an organization more adaptive.

2.2.7. Metaheuristic Algorithms

Metaheuristics are solution methods that use local improvement process

and higher level strategies in order to create processes that are able to escape
local optima and perform robust search on search space (Korosec, n.d.).
Metaheuristic algorithms are algorithms that search solution through the use of
trial and error, thus the name heuristic. These algorithms are different from
algorithms such as the simplex algorithm since algorithms such as simplex uses
gradient in order to search for solutions (X. Yang, 2010).
2.2.8. Ant Colony Optimization and Supply Chain Management

Ant Colony Optimization or ACO is a metaheuristic algorithm adapting

swarm intelligence. It is a population-based metaheuristic technique inspired by
ant foraging first introduced by Marco Dorigo and colleagues (Blum, 2005). Ants
foraging for food will first randomly search for it. Ants will lay out pheromones
which will then be trails that can be used either to go back to the colony or as a
path for following ants. Other paths will be lay out by other ants towards the food
found by others. Since pheromones evaporate some paths which are not
frequently used will be deserted. Paths which take the shortest amount of time
between the food and colony will have its pheromone trail rejuvenated most often
which will then in turn be the path used by the ants to forage the food. The
shortest path between the food and the colony is the high quality solution. The
algorithm has three basic procedures. These are: the construct ant solution,
apply local research, and update pheromones (Moncayo-Martínez & Recio,
2014). The first procedure lets an ant or an agent build a solution. The second
procedure is optional. What happens here is that the ant’s solution is improved
by applying local search. The last procedure reinforces the pheromone trails
according to the solution’s quality. Low quality solutions are evaporated by an
evaporation factor in order to avoid stagnation of solution.

In a work my Moncayo-Martinez and Recio, they used a Pareto Ant

Colony Optimization for a bi-criterion optimization to configure an assembly
supply chain. According to their review of literature, none of the literatures have
attempted to use ACO in order to optimize bi-objective supply chain configuration
problems. Most of the literatures have utilized to use of genetic algorithm in order
to optimize their problems. They were able to optimize their problem using P-
ACO with a simultaneous search of the ants for solutions on the search space
that gave considerable CPU computation time of 235 s. They have stated other
parameters that would allow them to conclude the algorithm is efficient.
2.2.9. Evolutionary Algorithms

One type of algorithm under the metaheuristics is known to be the

evolutionary algorithms. These algorithms mimics natural evolution in order to
come up with solutions and are better algorithms for optimization than traditional
algorithms when it comes to solving real world problems (Korosec, n.d.).

2.2.10. Genetic Algorithms

Genetic Algorithm is an evolutionary computational model which is

developed by John Holland in the 1970s originally for the purpose of mimicking
natural adaptation to computer systems (Melanie, 1996). It is basically a
population-based model that uses selection and recombination operators in order
to generate new sample points in a search space (Whitley, 1994). It is a non-
traditional tool used mostly for optimization and on different scientific,
engineering and mathematical fields. The genetic algorithm uses reproduction,
crossovers and mutations in order to arrive with an optimal solution according to
either the maximum number of generations produce or a satisfactory fitness level
has been reached by a certain population (Danalakshmi & Kumar, n.d.).

Genetic Algorithms are algorithms not used solely for the purpose of
optimization, although its idea’s origin, which is Evolutionary Systems, was
conceived in order to optimize real-valued parameters (Mitchell, 1999). The
algorithm is inspired by natural evolution. Genetic algorithm can work very well
with mixed (discrete and continuous) combinatorial problems and are able to get
stuck at local optima unlike other gradient search techniques (Danalakshmi &
Kumar, n.d.). This makes it one of the widely used optimization tool on fields
such as engineering, mathematics, economics, and other fields.

Genetic algorithms are also applied heavily on the robotics field as its
preliminary purpose was in this field along. It was used for autonomous robotic
navigation through applying reactive control parameters (Ram, Arkin, Boone, &
Pearce, n.d.). It was used by Johanssen and Evertsson and introduced time
parameters to the algorithm in order to react efficiently on real time (Johansson &
Evertsson, 2003). They used time instead of the number of generations in order
to initiate the end of iterations for the algorithm. They found out that the
complexity of the problem takes into consideration when implementing time
constraints.

Genetic algorithm applied to supply chain management and other fields

In a work by, they used genetic algorithm in order optimize a supply chain
network through minimizing its total operation cost. They used 3 suppliers, 2
manufacturing plants, 3 distribution centers and 6 retailers. The costs they used
in their model are the transportation cost, supplier cost, and the distributor’s cost
while integrating profit which is characterized by demand and selling price
reduced by the total operating cost. This work maximizes profit through the use
of minimizing the total operating cost (Danalakshmi & Kumar, n.d.).

In a work by Minic and his colleagues, they considered a three-echelon

supply chain network composed of four different nodes; the far supply node,
Close supply node, the satellite supply node, and the customer supply node and
the echelons located in between the nodes aforementioned. The study assumed
that maintainability and availability of transportation vehicles during travel is
perfect and has not considered scheduling and routing of protection support
vehicles and staff. Their idea in order to develop a model was by first solving a
deterministic version of the problem before tackling the stochastic version. The
study also used scenarios to model uncertainty in demand. These scenarios are
ranged from natural to man-made disasters wherein the demand’s characteristics
vary from deterministic to stochastic (Minic et al., 2014).
 In a work by Djennas, Bebouziane and Djennas, they consider using
genetic algorithm and clustering and fuzzy logic to specify supply chain
management trading interactions among agents. Their work’s results support the
view that the structured model provides a good tool for modeling the supply chain
activities using AI methodology (Djennas, Benbouziane, & Djennas, 2012).

In a work by Yang et al., they proposed a hybridization of the efficient

genetic algorithm (EGA) with the stochastic competitive Hopfield neural Network
(SCH) in order to improve the computational abilities of both algorithms. They
used their proposed hybrid algorithm in a Frequency Assignment Problem (FAP)
which needs to assign frequency stations that would minimize the frequency
interference on each station. They compared their hybrid algorithms with other
metaheuristic algorithms and evolutionary algorithms and found that the results
state that their hybrid algorithm acquired better results. (Yang, Wu, Jin, & Xu,
2016)

In a work by Barzinpour et al., they used an efficient genetic algorithm to

solve their proposed model which aims to minimize the total cost while also
maximizing the least rate of satisfaction in the case of being fair while distributing
the items. The model is multi-objective and it also simultaneously determines the
location of distribution centers and the allocation of affected areas to relief
distribution centers. They used the LINGO software in order to run their model
and compared the results of the genetic algorithm with simulated annealing. In
their conclusion, the proposed genetic algorithm provides relatively good
solutions in a reasonable time. (Barzinpour, Saffarian, Makoui, & Teimoury,
2014)
2.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Disaster Humanitarian Supply Chain

Genetic/ Evolutionary Algorithm

Factors affecting Total Factors affecting Total
Operation Cost Coverage Benefit

Mathematical Modelling

Improved Cost & Model Efficiency

Coverage

Figure 2.2 Conceptual Framework

The Figure 2.2 above shows the conceptual framework of the study which
discusses the study’s flow. The main focus of the study is to formulate a model
that would represent the behavior and characteristics of the humanitarian supply
chain with an objective of minimizing cost and maximizing total coverage. To
achieve that, both the humanitarian supply chain and the disaster related to it
have to be studied in order to come up with the factors that have effect on the
efficiency of the supply chain. In the formulation of the model, these factors
would be considered. The model would be run in genetic algorithm in order to
find a solution. In running the model through the algorithm, the nearly optimized
cost & coverage benefit can be gathered together with the model efficiency.

2.2 HYPOTHESES

These are the hypotheses that the researcher wants to prove by the end
of the research.

ℎ1∅: There is no significant difference between the effects of the factors

affecting the efficiency of the disaster relief operation.
ℎ11 : There is a significant difference between the effects of the factors
affecting the efficiency of the disaster relief operation.

2.3 DEFINITION OF TERMS

The following list defines the different terms and jargons that have been
used in the study. The following terms need not be found in the following pages
after this list. Other terms not found in the following pages are used in the
previous chapters and sections of this paper. The terms are arranged
alphabetically. Hierarchical arrangement of definitions is not considered.

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). A type of metaheuristic algorithm that adapts

the nature of swarm intelligence. This algorithm uses ants and
pheromones in order to find the local optima of a problem.
Ant. A type of insect that is the primary inspiration of ACO. This allows ACO to
find solutions in the search space by allowing it to swarm and scout
for the local optima through secretion of pheromones.
Barangay. The smallest administrative division in the Philippines and is the
native Filipino term for village.
Chromosome. A parameter used in evolutionary algorithm that contains a
solution from the search space. This allows evolutionary algorithm
to find the local optima through different genetic operations.
Clustering. A type of strategy used in facilities planning and design that puts
facilities with the same function close together in order to minimize
the distance between the sources of materials to each of the
facilities adjusted, allowing faster processing and distribution.
Commercial Supply Chain. A type of supply chain used commonly in traditional
commercial and industrial industries. It is commonly related with the
objective of minimizing the total cost of a supply chain.
Commodities. A type of good in its raw state or form.
Constraint. A type of equation that limits the values of the objective function to
the feasible region of the problem.
Crossover Rate. The rate at which the chromosomes would mate with another
in order to form children solutions.
Demand. The amount of goods that is wanted by the consumers.
Destruction. The act or process of damaging something resulting in a state
beyond repair.
Deterministic. A theory stating that occurrences in a system or phenomenon are
determined and certain.
Devastated. The state of being damaged or destroyed.
Disaster Management. A type of management focused on disasters. It aims to
alleviate suffering, mitigate the disaster’s effects, reducing risks of
disasters, responding to the disaster’s effects, and recovering the
natural state of the devastated area.
Disaster Mitigation. A phase in disaster management that aims to reduce the
effects of a disaster before and after its occurrence.
Disaster Preparedness. A phase in disaster management that prepares a
community to the sudden burst of disaster through training,
structural reinforcement, and system improvement.
Disaster Recovery. A phase in disaster management that recovers the state of
the affected region back to normal once a disaster has fallen.
Disaster Relief Operations. An operation in disaster management closely
related to disaster response which performs distribution of relief
materials that would assist in the recovery of the community.
Disaster Response. A phase in disaster management that performs activities
that would allow
Disaster. A type of event which can disrupt the flow of activities in a community
in a destructive or devastating way.
Distribution Centers. A warehouse which has a large capacity of holding relief
goods commonly located far from the probable location of a
disaster.
Donations. Goods obtained from different sources without product cost.
Echelon. A synonymous term for steps.
Evacuation Center. A facility holding the yielded population of a disaster.
Evolutionary Algorithms. A type of metaheuristic algorithm that adapts the
ability of living beings to improve through the use of primary
operators of evolution.
Family. The smallest social group of people.
Fitness Level. A measure used in genetic algorithm for the proximity of the
recent generation of population to the local optima.
Forecast. A prediction of future events with considerable number of evidences
backing the prediction.
Genetic Algorithm. A type of evolutionary algorithm that mimics the ability of
evolution through the use of genetic operators such as mutation,
crossover, and generation.
Government. A type of organization tasked to control a country or state.
Humanitarian Logistics. A type of logistics aimed at aiding people and
alleviating their sufferings through the use of effective movement of
products and services.
Humanitarian Supply Chain. A type of supply chain that acts as the framework
for Humanitarian Logistics.
Lateral Transshipment. A strategy in logistics where transportation of goods
between facilities in the same echelon is allowed.
Management. The science and art of making decisions for an organization in
order to achieve the organizational objectives.
Mathematical Modelling. A part of operations research that translates real
problems into mathematical equations containing at least one
objective function and sets of constraints.
Maximization. A type of optimization objective that finds the largest value of the
objective function within the feasible region.
Metaheuristics. A combination of heuristics and algorithm that allows the user to
search by trial-and-error local optima in a search space without the
use of gradients.
Minimization. A type of optimization objective that finds the least value of the
objective function within the feasible region.
Mutation Rate. The rate at which a chromosome would change a part of its
solution without the process of mating.
Non-government. A type of organization that is headed by citizens not holding
and position in any government office.
Organization. A group of people formed for a particular purpose.
Objective Function. A mathematical equation in mathematical modelling that is
optimized according to the given limitations of the constraints.
Parameter. A term that defines a variable’s nature; usually pertaining to
constants.
Pareto. Commonly related to the 80-20 rule, the Pareto is a principle stating the
few 20 percent would contribute 80 percent of the total outcome of
any phenomenon.
Prediction. An attempt to
Prepositioning. A type of strategy in humanitarian supply chain that allows
holding of supplies in satellite before the occurrence of the disaster.
Real Time. A type of scenario which allows the search for solution depending on
the current circumstances and relative to the changes in the
circumstances as time passes.
Relief Camps. A type of warehouse that facilitates end distribution of relief
goods in an affected area.
Risk Reduction. An activity which allows minimizing of observable and potential
risk in a certain area.
Satellites. A type of warehouse that has a smaller capacity than the distribution
center but is located near or in the probable affected area.
Satellites also allow the strategy of prepositioning.
Scenario. A representation of possible future events.
Stochastic. A theory stating uncertainty in an occurrence within a system or
phenomenon.
Strategy. An educated plan or method designed in order to achieve a particular
goal.
Supply Chain Management. A type of management that focuses on the
strategies for selecting the supplier and customer and the type of
movement to be used for the goods to be processed.
Traffic. The movement of vehicles.
Typhoon. A meteorological calamity caused by a low pressure area that
accumulates gaseous substances until it forms into a depression;
synonymous to cyclone and hurricane with the primary difference of
the origin of formation.
Variable. A term that has values that may vary depending on the given situation.
Vehicle. A thing used primarily for transportation of entities between places.
Warehouse. A facility intended for storage of goods.
Yielded. The effect of a certain phenomenon.
 CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY

3.1. Introduction

The study deals with modelling a multi-echelon humanitarian supply chain

with an objective to maximize the supply chain’s coverage and minimize its total
operating cost. This section of the study will discuss the methodology used by
the researcher in order to come up with a solution and answer to the given set of
research questions.

3.2. Research Design

The study is a combination of qualitative and quantitative research designs.

Qualitative research design (historical research) was used in gathering the
necessary historical data from different offices and organizations such as the
NDRRMC and PAG-ASA which either actively participates and has affiliations
within humanitarian activities in either local or international locations. This
allowed the researcher to be more knowledgeable about other facts not included
in the read literature and also the current situation of humanitarian relief
operations on their organizations. Qualitative research design was used in
selecting necessary and rejecting unnecessary assumptions for the formulation
of the model based from the literatures.

Quantitative research design was used in manipulating the data received

from its sources. This allowed the researcher to gather the needed information
from the given data which was not explicitly given upon receiving the data
firsthand

An experimental research design was used since the modelling shows the
causalities and effects of different parameters and variables to each other. The
research was experimental since there is the presence of a control and
experimental group. The control group of the research is the historical data while
the experimental group was the generated results of the model.

. Quantitative research design will also be used in modelling the supply chain
that would represent the behavior and characteristics of the supply chain with
considerable precision. Quantitative research design will also be used to
formulate, examine, and reject or non-reject a set of hypotheses. Quantitative
research design will also be used in order to measure the improvements to be
made by the model and also to measure the model’s efficiency in finding
solutions.

3.3. Sampling Design

The study aims to formulate a model that would represent a humanitarian

supply chain according to its cost and coverage. The researcher would be using
the all required data and information about a single natural calamity; preferably, a
tropical storm. Thus, a convenience sampling would be used. Tropical storms are
formed on seas and oceans where a large amount of water can evaporate with
significant mass in order to form large clusters of clouds. This allows tropical
storms to be observed before it hits land. This allows observers to forecast the
direction of the tropical storm which can be used to generate a number of
possibilities of areas that can be strike by the disaster days before it hits land.

3.4. Research Instruments

The researcher used various research instruments in order to fulfill the

objectives of the study. These aided the researcher in understanding the data to
be collected and analyze the information extracted from the data.
3.4.1. Interview

The researcher conducted an interview on the ABS-CBN Sagip

Kapamilya Foundation which is the main department of the organization
that spearheads the humanitarian assistance operations of the TV
network. This instrument aided the researcher in assessing the different
factors that affect the efficiency of a humanitarian supply chain. This also
aided the researcher in obtaining knowledge about extraneous variables
affecting the humanitarian operations that also affect the precision of
humanitarian supply chain models formulated by researchers. The
interview also allowed the researcher to gain insights about how
humanitarian operations are done in the Philippines and its difference with
the operations of international humanitarian organizations.

3.4.2. Microsoft Excel

Microsoft Excel was used by the researcher in order to tabulate the

data received from the National Risk Reduction and Management Council.
This also allowed efficient data manipulation without the use of other
softwares. Excel is more popularly known as a good tool in accounting.
Even with the computing power of Excel, there are still limitations to its
feature. Further statistical analysis to the data requires the use of other
softwares. Excel is used in order to run the model formulated in
evolutionary algorithm.

3.4.3. Mathematical Modelling

The researcher will use mathematical modelling in interpreting the

data received from the organizations and offices. The model will allow the
study come up with a solution that would reduce the cost of the supply
 chain and improving coverage. Mathematical models allow people to
simulate real events and problems mathematically; through that, solutions
and other possibilities about the problem or event can be observes by
solving the model through a set of defined step called algorithms and
heuristics. Mathematical models allow the observation of different
scenarios without expending on the simulation of the problem. Thus, in a
way this can be considered a type of non-destructive testing.

3.4.4. Journals and other related literatures

Journal articles and other references written by credible authors and

coming from different sources was used in this study. This aided the
researcher in gaining better understanding about modelling humanitarian
supply chain networks. This also allowed the researcher gain necessary
assumptions which can be made in order to simulate the environment of a
disaster and its affected areas in a mathematical model.

3.5. Data Collection

The data gathered came from the National Risk Reduction and
Management Council (NDRRMC) and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical
and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Strategical insights were
gathered through the interview of ABS-CBN managers for their humanitarian
operation assistance. The data gathered include information about how much
people were affected, structures affected and the cost of each, the number of
relief goods distributed, the number of evacuation center, and etc. The data
acquired from the different organizations and offices are cited properly and would
be acknowledged. Distances to be traveled by the vehicles were taken from
Google Maps with their destination feature readily available in their website.
3.6. Data Analysis Procedure

The data analysis procedure discusses the different steps done in order to
achieve the objectives of the study. This will be done by discussing how each of
the research problems would be answered step-by-step. The following research
questions and procedures would be as follows.

(i) How does genetic algorithm improve the humanitarian supply chain
model?

Step 1: The network topology would be discussed in order to assess if the

desired behavior of the supply chain is also observed in the
model.
Step 2: The necessary assumptions for the network would be discussed
which would aid in modelling
Step 3: The parameters and variables would be defined.
Step 4: The objective function and constraints would be defined and
discussed.
Step 5: The model would be run through the evolutionary/genetic
algorithm and the required output would be gathered.
Step 6: The output would be analyzed and the analysis would be
discussed.
(ii) What are the significant factors that affect the efficiency of the disaster
relief operation?

Step 1: The model was run through the evolutionary/genetic algorithm

until it acquires the solution.
Step 2: The solution was subjected to a sensitivity analysis using spider
plot which allowed to determine the criteria/ factor that
significantly affects the solution.
Step 3: The derivative of the objective function while undergoing
sensitivity analyses in each criteria was recorded and tallied.
Step 4: The criteria sensitivity analysis result was ranked according to the
highest derivative.

(iii) What are the measures to be used in determining the improvements made
by the model?

Step 1: The model was run through the genetic algorithm. The following
would be requested as an output to the program: Number of
generations and time required to come up with a solution.
Step 2: The output of the model was compared to the used funds in the
data given.
Step 3: The amount of budget saved from the solution was used in order
to determine the magnitude of improvement made by the model.
 CHAPTER 4
DATA ANALYSIS AND PROCEDURE

4.1. INTRODUCTION

In this chapter, the researcher discusses the methods used in order to

come up with a conclusion which can be done through answering the set of
research questions formulated in Chapter One of this research. The methodology
discussed in Chapter Three is used in order to achieve the objectives of the
study. In order to achieve coherence of discussion, the thorough discussion of
the system would be written in this chapter which would aid in a faster
understanding of the definition of parameters. Moreover, the assumptions to be
used in modelling the system would be discussed in this chapter. The
assumptions to be made that would aid in the modelling activity would adhere to
the scopes and limitations of the study discussed in Chapter One.

4.2. SYSTEM DEFINITION

The network topology discusses the network to be used in the study. The
supply chain network to be considered in this study will be a three-echelon
supply chain. The echelons of the network would be composed of the following:
the central distribution center (Supply Point or SP), satellites (local depot or
LD), and the relief camp (Demand point or DP).

The central distribution centers (SPs) are warehouse facilities that are
able to hold a limited but large amount of relief goods at a specific time. SPs are
considered the initial echelon of the supply chain. It is assumed to be the primary
and only origin of relief goods that will run throughout the system. In order to
replenish the relief goods which are distributed to either the satellites or relief
camps, the central distribution center would be supplied by relief goods through
the procurement of the organization with its suppliers. Donations that come from
different sources (either individuals or organizations) would not be considered
since the donated goods may apply too much variability to the prices of the relief
goods. In the system to be considered, only one distribution center would be
used in order to centralize the distribution on the first and second echelons.

The satellites (LPs) are warehouse facilities that are able to hold a limited
but relatively smaller amount of relief goods compared to the SPs. LPs are
considered to be the second echelon of the supply chain. There can be more
than one LP in every SPs. LPs allow the supply chain to hold a certain amount of
inventory which is relatively closer to the potential relief camps (DPs) during the
strike of the disaster. Since satellites are larger in number than central
distribution centers, its capacity to hold inventory is reduced from the capacity of
the SP in order to reduce the cost of the facility: in its establishment and
maintenance.

The relief camps (DPs) are facilities which can hold very small amount of
inventory unlike the other two echelons. DPs are considered the third echelon of
the system. It is also the facility where the demand is satisfied. There can be
more than one DP in every satellite. Relief camps are designed with small
inventory capacity because these facilities are mostly pre-established facilities
which are designed for other purposes. In the Philippines, it is rare for a
municipality to have their own evacuation facility unless their local government
acquires enough amount of tax income from the locality that would allow them to
establish a facility for evacuation purposes. Commonly, schools, municipal halls,
and community centers are used for evacuation of affected people. Figure 4.1
shows the pictorial representation of the three echelons.

The three-echelons would be collectively called nodes. The supply chain

would thus have three types of nodes and two of the nodes would have different
locations.
 Very small inventory
capacity

Smaller but limited

warehouse capacity DP1, 1

Satellite 1 DP1 ,2

DP1, 3
Large, but limited
warehouse capacity
DP2, 1
Central
Distribution Satellite 2 DP2, 2
Center
DP2, 3

DP3, 1

Satellite 3 DP3, 2

DP3, 3

FLOW OF GOODS

Fig 4.1. A Three-Echelon Supply Chain Network (Minic et al., 2014)

The lines in figure 4.1 represent the paths to be taken by the vehicles in
order to transport goods from one echelon to another. The transportation route to
be considered in the system would be the shortest route in terms of the distance
from one echelon to another. Simply put, only one path would be considered in
the transportation of goods from one echelon to another. The transportation of
goods from the SP to the DP is allowed in order to facilitate further flexibility in
the logistics of the supply chain.
4.3. PROBLEM DEFINITION AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

Humanitarian Supply Chains are far more complex to model than a

commercial supply chain since the stochastic nature of different parameters is
high. In order to deal with the stochasticity of the variables, the researcher would
be using different scenarios in order to deal with it. Each scenario would be
deterministic and the summary of the results of each deterministic approach
would be the equivalent result of a stochastic model.

Two scenarios would be considered and the primary change that would
take place in each scenario would be the difference in demand. The demand
would be changed according to the path of the tropical storm. One scenario
would be the path taken by Typhoon Glenda in the time it hit the Philippines while
the other scenario would be created using one of the routes in the area of
forecast uncertainty. The locations and capacities of each facility in each echelon
are known.

During a disaster, the commodities and goods also gains high stochasticity
due to the shortage of supplies and the destruction of transportation routes.
Considering this characteristic would far make the model more realistic but would
make the model more complex and difficult to make. Thus, the cost of the goods
to be bought from the suppliers would be considered constant in this study. The
transportation time and transportation routes would be considered deterministic.
The supplies coming from the suppliers would be considered unlimited. Vehicles
to be used would be considered indestructible and in a very good condition
during its tours.

In order to prepare with the modelling of the supply chain, the following
criteria for the formulation of the objective function would be done. The model
would be composed of four objective criteria which are:
 (i) The transportation cost from SP to LP
(ii) The transportation cost from LP to DP
(iii) Inventory cost
(iv) Penalty cost for unmet demand

The multiple criteria objective function can be made possible through the use
of weights. The sum of the weights of the transportation and inventory costs
criteria would be equal to 1 while the weight for the last criterion would be larger
than the other weights in order to avoid reducing cost through not meeting the
demand. This will ensure that the primary purpose of the humanitarian supply
chain would be achieved by the model.

4.4. DEFINITION OF PARAMETERS AND VARIABLES

This part of the study discusses the methods to be used in order to formulate
the model that would interpret and mimic the behavior of a humanitarian supply-
chain with three-echelon.

4.4.1. Sets

𝑁 set of nodes
𝐾 set of paths
𝑆𝑃 set of central distribution center
𝐿𝑃 set of satellites
𝐷𝑃 set of relief camps
𝑉 set of vehicle types
𝑅 set of relief goods
4.4.2. Parameters

𝑐𝑟 cost of relief goods 𝑟, 𝑟 ∈ 𝑅

𝑐𝑣𝑘 cost of using vehicle 𝑣 in path 𝑘, 𝑣 ∈ 𝑉, 𝑘 ∈ 𝐾
ℎ𝑟 inventory cost of relief good 𝑟
𝑞𝑣 capacity of vehicle 𝑣
𝑞𝑠𝑝 capacity of distribution center 𝑠𝑝, 𝑠𝑝 ∈ 𝑆𝑃
𝑞𝑙𝑝 capacity of satellite 𝑙𝑝, 𝑙𝑝 ∈ 𝐿𝑃
𝑞𝑑𝑝 capacity of relief camp 𝑑𝑝, 𝑑𝑝 ∈ 𝐷𝑃
𝑝𝑟 penalty cost for unmet demand of relief good 𝑟
𝑘𝑙 length of path 𝑘
𝑑𝑟𝑑𝑝 demand for relief good 𝑟 at echelon 𝑑𝑝
𝑐𝑜 budget or maximum cost allowed
𝑟𝑖 initial total quantity of relief good 𝑟 in the system
𝑑𝑝
𝑚 𝑟𝑑 the ratio of relief good 𝑟 for demand 𝑑 at echelon 𝑑𝑝
𝑤𝑒 objective function weights 𝑒 = 1,2,3,4

4.4.3. Decision Variables

𝑞𝑟𝑣𝑙𝑝 quantity of relief good 𝑟 transported by vehicle 𝑣 to echelon

𝑙𝑝
𝑞𝑟𝑣𝑑𝑝 quantity of relief good 𝑟 transported by vehicle 𝑣 to echelon
𝑑𝑝
𝑞𝑟 quantity of relief good 𝑟 bought from supplier
𝑗𝑠𝑝𝑟 quantity of relief good 𝑟 that was stored in echelon 𝑠𝑝
𝑗𝑙𝑝𝑟 quantity of relief good 𝑟 that was stored in echelon 𝑙𝑝
𝑗𝑑𝑝𝑟 quantity of relief good 𝑟 that was stored in echelon 𝑑𝑝
𝑔𝑠𝑝𝑟 inventory level at echelon 𝑠𝑝 for relief good 𝑟
𝑔𝑙𝑝𝑟 inventory level at echelon 𝑙𝑝 for relief good 𝑟
 𝑔𝑑𝑝𝑟 inventory level at echelon 𝑑𝑝 for relief good 𝑟
𝑏𝑑 =1 if ∑ 𝑑𝑟𝑑𝑝 > 𝑟𝑖; 0 otherwise
𝑥 𝑣𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑝 =1 if vehicle 𝑣 is used to transport relief good 𝑟 from echelon
𝑠𝑝 to 𝑙𝑝; 0 otherwise
𝑛𝑣𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑝 number of times vehicle 𝑣 is used to transport relief good 𝑟
from echelon 𝑠𝑝 to 𝑙𝑝
𝑥 𝑣𝑟𝑙𝑝𝑑𝑝 =1 if vehicle 𝑣 is used to transport relief good 𝑟 from echelon
𝑙𝑝 to 𝑑𝑝; 0 otherwise
𝑛𝑣𝑟𝑙𝑝𝑑𝑝 number of times vehicle 𝑣 is used to transport relief good 𝑟
from echelon 𝑙𝑝 to 𝑑𝑝
𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑝 quantity of unmet demand for relief good 𝑟 at echelon 𝑑𝑝

4.4.4. MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODEL

𝑀𝑖𝑛 (𝑤1 ∑𝑟 ∑𝑣 ∑𝑠𝑝 ∑𝑙𝑝 ∑𝑘 𝑐𝑣𝑘 𝑛𝑣𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑝 +

𝑤2 ∑𝑟 ∑𝑣 ∑𝑙𝑝 ∑𝑑𝑝 ∑𝑘 𝑐𝑣𝑘 𝑛𝑣𝑟𝑙𝑝𝑑𝑝 + 𝑤3 (∑𝑟 ∑𝑠𝑝 𝑐𝑟 𝑗𝑠𝑝𝑟 +

∑𝑟 ∑𝑙𝑝 𝑐𝑟 𝑗𝑙𝑝𝑟 + ∑𝑟 ∑𝑑𝑝 𝑐𝑟 𝑗𝑑𝑝𝑟 + 𝑏𝑑 ∑𝑟 𝑐𝑟 𝑞𝑟 ) +

𝑤4 ∑𝑟 ∑𝑑𝑝 𝑝𝑟 𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑝) (1)

Subject to:

𝑚𝑑𝑝
𝑟𝑑 𝑞 𝑟𝑣𝑑𝑝 ≥ 𝑑𝑟𝑑𝑝 (2)

𝑞𝑟𝑣𝑙𝑝 ≤ 𝑔𝑙𝑝𝑟 (3)

𝑞𝑟𝑣𝑑𝑝 ≤ 𝑔𝑑𝑝𝑟 (4)

𝑞𝑟 + 𝑔𝑠𝑝𝑟 ≥ ∑ 𝑑𝑟𝑑𝑝 (5)

 𝑞𝑟𝑣𝑙𝑝
𝑛𝑣𝑟𝑘𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑝 = ⁄𝑞 (6)
𝑣

𝑞𝑟𝑣𝑑𝑝
𝑛𝑣𝑟𝑘𝑙𝑝𝑑𝑝 = ⁄𝑞𝑣 (7)

𝑗𝑠𝑝𝑟
ℎ𝑠𝑝𝑟 = ⁄𝑞𝑠𝑝 (8)

𝑗𝑙𝑝𝑟
ℎ𝑙𝑝𝑟 = ⁄𝑞𝑙𝑝 (9)

𝑗𝑑𝑝𝑟
ℎ𝑑𝑝𝑟 = ⁄𝑞𝑑𝑝 (10)

The objective function is found in equation (1). The four criteria discussed
above are considered in formulating the objective function. The given weights for
the objective function criteria were also included. Equation (2) limits the quantity
of relief goods to be transported to the relief camps. Equation (4) ensures that
the number of distributed goods is not more than the inventory level held in its
source. Equation (5) ensures that the number of relief goods from the central
distribution center is not less than the demand at any relief camp. Equation (6)
and (7) determines the number of tours of each vehicle in each path. The
equations (8) to (10) determines the inventory levels at each echelon.

𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑐𝑜 − (𝑤1 ∑𝑟 ∑𝑣 ∑𝑠𝑝 ∑𝑙𝑝 ∑𝑘 𝑐𝑣𝑘 𝑥 𝑣𝑟𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑝 + 𝑤2 ∑𝑟 ∑𝑣 ∑𝑙𝑝 ∑𝑑𝑝 ∑𝑘 𝑐𝑣𝑘 𝑥 𝑣𝑟𝑙𝑝𝑑𝑝 +

𝑤3 (∑𝑟 ∑𝑠𝑝 𝑐𝑟 𝑔𝑠𝑝𝑟 + ∑𝑟 ∑𝑙𝑝 𝑐𝑟 𝑔𝑙𝑝𝑟 + ∑𝑟 ∑𝑑𝑝 𝑐𝑟 𝑔𝑑𝑝𝑟 + 𝑏𝑑 ∑𝑟 𝑐𝑟 𝑞𝑟 ) +

𝑤4 ∑𝑟 ∑𝑑𝑝 𝑝𝑟 𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑝 ) (11)
Equation (11) tests the model if a budget constraint is introduced. This would
allow to determine if there are any difference in the solutions of the two objective
functions once the budget was input in the model.

4.5. DATA ANALYSIS

4.5.1. Generation of Scenarios

Figure 4.1 Weather Forecast number 7 for Typhoon RAMMASUN (Glenda)(Padua, 2014)

Figure 4.1 shows the current location of the tropical cyclone during the
14th of July in the year 2014 at 11 PM in the night. During this time, the
forecasted area where the typhoon would landfall is in the northeastern Albay in
the afternoon. Regions and places that could yield devastation from the typhoon
was forecasted as well and these are the Bicol Region (Region V), Central Luzon
(Region III), and Region IV. The figure above shows the path that can be taken
by the cyclone through time. According to PAGASA, the average error of the
track for day 2 and 3 forecast is 100 and 250 km respectively. The day 2 and 3
forecasts are July 15 and 16.

Figure 4. 2 Weather Forecast number 12 of Typhoon RAMMASUN (Glenda) (Millanes, 2014)

Figure 4. 2 shows the weather forecast for the tropical cyclone Glenda for
the 16th of July, 2014. The black line represents the previous track of the
typhoon. The blue line on the other hand is the forecasted track of the typhoon. It
can be seen from the black line from Figure 4. 2 that it is not the same with the
forecasted track in Figure 4.1. It can be observed that the typhoon’s landfall had
slowed the typhoon. According to the report, these are the forecasted devastated
regions during the day: Bicol Region, Northern Samar and Northern Quezon. The
forecasted devastated regions during the night are: Northern Mindoro,
Marinduque, Quezon, Pollilo Island, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite,
Bataan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, Southern Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, and
Pangasinan. It can be seen in Table 4. 1 that parts of the Bicol Region
(Camarines Sur, Sorsogon and Albay), Northern Samar, Quezon, Laguna,
Cavite, and Bataan are part of the most devastated places in terms of yielded
population and also the listed forecasted regions to be devastated in the report.
These places experienced a Philippine tropical storm signal # 3 during the
typhoon.

Table 4. 1 The Ten Places with the most yielded population based on families and persons

Region/Province/ Yielded Yielded Yielded

Rank Mun/City Brgys Families Persons
1 CAMARINES SUR 702 228,591 920,408
2 QUEZON 947 150,988 646,830
3 SORSOGON 511 121,796 602,778
4 ALBAY 430 102,722 505,327
5 NORTHERN SAMAR 515 76,508 350,293
6 LAGUNA 433 68,038 322,405
7 CAVITE 234 56,607 271,939
8 BATANGAS 354 51,230 251,942
9 BATAAN 149 38,741 182,641
10 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 281 32,304 155,681

Table 4. 2 shows the average percent yielded population of each region. It

can be observed that regions V, VIII, and IV-A has the most yielded average
population in terms of percentage. This is true because the typhoon has landfall
in Northern Albay which caused storm signal #3 be experienced in these regions.
Other regions experienced signal #2 or #1 during the typhoon. To generate the
second scenario, the path of the typhoon would be offset in a way that it would
landfall in the Quezon Province which would reduce the % yielded in the regions
V, and VIII by 50% and increase in the other regions by 100%. Since IV-A
contains Quezon Province; this region would also gain an increase % yield of
150%. The % increase would be used in the % yielded of the typhoon in each
province and not on the yielded population.
 Table 4. 2 Average Percent of Yielded Population in each region

Region Average % Yielded

I 0.01%
III 5.06%
V 34.95%
VIII 22.36%
IV-A 14.88%
IV-B 2.10%
NCR 0.22%
Grand Total 14.73%

It is shown in Table 4.3 the average percent yielded and the generated
average %. There has been almost insignificant change in the first two regions
(NCR and Region I) while there has been significant change in the rest. It can
also be observed that the grand average was not significantly changed along the
process. Plugging these values will allow the researcher to generate the second
scenario.

Table 4.3 Average of % Yielded with Average of Generated % Yielded

Region Average % Yielded Average of Generated % Yielded

NCR 0.22% 0.45%
I 0.01% 0.01%
III 5.06% 10.12%
V 34.95% 17.48%
VIII 22.36% 11.18%
IV-A 14.88% 37.21%
IV-B 2.10% 4.21%
Grand Average 14.73% 14.77%
 4.5.2. The Second Scenario

Using the values obtained in Table 4.3 and using it on the population,
the resulting scenario is shown in Table 4. 4.

Table 4. 4 Generated Yielded Population for each region

Region Generated Yielded Population

NCR 53,016
I2 614
III2 442,802
V2 1,112,583
VIII2 273,343
IV-A 3,999,083
IV-B 68,032
Grand Total 5,949,472

4.5.3. Determination of Food to Person Ratio

The researcher would be using the 3 regions for the study. Table 4.5 shows the
yielded population and the number of evacuation centers in each region. It can
be observed that the ratio of evacuation centers vary in each region.

Table 4.5 Number of Populations and Evacuation Centers yielded in the three most devastated
regions during Typhoon RAMMASUN (Glenda)

Region/Province/ Yielded No. of Evac

Mun/City Centers
Brgys Families Persons
GRAND TOTAL 4,733 963,719 4,371,484 2,721
REGION IV-A 2,091 349,174 1,599,633 407
REGION V 1,801 497,488 2,225,165 2,003
REGION VIII 841 117,057 546,686 311

Table 4. 6 shows the ratio of people per evacuation center in the three
regions. It can be seen that the intended number of people for evacuation center
is not proportional in each region. Region IV-A has at most a half more than the
demand for evacuation center space in Region V (44.62%) and Region VIII has
at most a quarter of the same rate with Region IV-A (9.42%).

Table 4. 6 Ratio of People per Evacuation Center

Region Ratio of People per Evacuation Center

REGION IV-A 1,607
REGION V 1,111
REGION VIII 1,758

Table 4. 7 shows the number of yielded population that can be found inside
evacuation centers. The population inside evacuation centers means the families
and persons that are able to utilize the space in the evacuation center contrary to
being outside the evacuation center. Table 4. 8 shows the number of yielded
population that stays outside evacuation centers. These are families and persons
that are still able to make use of the relief operation activities in evacuation
centers but are not able to utilize the space of evacuation centers for them. This
population need not be resting in the streets; there is also the possibility of these
people to live in their houses.

Table 4. 7 Number of Yielded Families and Persons inside Evacuation Centers

Region/Province/ Inside Evacuation Centers

Mun/City Families Persons
GRAND TOTAL 219,040 1,015,939
REGION IV-A 19,297 90,245
REGION V 144,099 689,143
REGION VIII 55,644 236,551

Table 4. 8 Number of Yielded Families and Persons Outside Evacuation Centers

Region/Province/ Outside Evacuation Centers

Mun/City Families Persons
GRAND TOTAL 419,305 1,873,435
REGION IV-A 26,311 131,539
REGION V 331,601 1,431,761
REGION VIII 61,393 310,135
 Table 4. 9 shows the number of people served by the relief operations. It
can be observed that the value of the total served population is not equivalent to
the value of total yielded population shown in Table 4.5. The difference between
the two values encompasses the number of unmet demand of the relief
operations done in the area.

Table 4. 9 Total Number of Yielded Population Served in Evacuation Centers

Region/Province/ Total Served

Mun/City Families Persons
GRAND TOTAL 638,345 2,889,374
REGION IV-A 45,608 221,784
REGION V 475,700 2,120,904
REGION VIII 117,037 546,686

Table 4. 10 shows the number of unmet demand in the three devastated

regions. It can be observed that almost all of the demand in region VIII was met
unlike the other two regions. These unmet demand was not included in the
number of relief goods distributed therefore this should be isolated in the
determination of the food to person ratio.

Table 4. 10 Number of Unmet Demand per Region

Unmet Demand
Region
Families Persons
REGION IV-A 303,566 1,377,849
REGION V 21,788 104,261
REGION VIII 20 -

Table 4. 11 shows the summary of relief goods provided by DSWD

together with other relief goods coming from donations. By dividing the value of
each relief goods to the total served, the ratio of relief goods to person can be
determined. Using the values in Table 4. 9 and Table 4. 11, the food to person and
non-food to person ratio is shown in Table 4. 11. For every thirteen food items,
three persons can benefit from it; and for every four non-food items, 5 persons
can benefit from it. This will be used in order to determine the demand in the
model.
Table 4. 11 Summary of DSWD Relief Goods Provided with donations and its ratio to each Person

Food Items Provided Non-Food Items Provided

12,589,869 2,350,659
Food: Person Non-Food: Person
13:3 4:5

4.5.4. Unit Product Cost

The types of relief goods to be used in the study would be the food
items and non-food items. These types of relief goods are the two
commonly used collective terms in the reports of NDRRMC. According to
their data, the unit product cost of food and non-food items are Php 225.2
and 151.44 respectively.

4.5.5. Costs of Inventory and Vehicle; Capacity of Vehicle and

Warehouses

The types of vehicles to be used in the study would be a 20’ footer

and a 40’ footer truck. These types of trucks are two of the commonly
used vehicles in a humanitarian operation. The cost to be used for the
vehicles was determined through the use of a cost matrix provided by the
Confederation of Truckers Association of the Philippines or CTAP (Zapata,
et al., 2014). According to their cost matrix, the average cost per kilometer
of 20’ footer and 40’footer trucks are Php 3,500.00 and 4,000.00
respectively.

The cost for the inventory would be 25% of the price of each goods.
Since the prices of the two relief goods are Php 225.2 and 151.44, their
respective unit inventory costs would be Php 56.3 and 37.86.
 The capacity of a 20’ footer and a 40’ footer truck is 30.68 m 3 and
62 m3 respectively. The volume of each type of relief item is 0.012 m 3.
Since the volume of each type of relief item is 0.0012 m3, the capacity of
each type of truck: 20’ footer and 40’ footer are 25000 and 55000 relief
items respectively. The capacity of each type of warehouses: LP and DP
are 40,000 items and 200,000 items respectively.

4.5.6. Distances of the Warehouses

The distances from each echelon with available paths are

determined using the software Google Maps. The central distribution
center would be located in Quezon City. The satellite would be located in
the center of each region. The relief camps would be settled in the capital
of each province. There would be three satellites in all regions and there
would be three relief camps in each region. Table 4.12 shows the
distances in kilometers of each echelon with available paths.

Table 4.12 Distances of Each Echelon in kilometers

Regions/Provinces Distances (km)

IV-A 13
V 30
VIII 45
Camarines Sur 3
Sorsogon 3
Albay 4
Quezon 6
Laguna 3
Cavite 4
Northern Samar 4
Samar(Western Samar) 4
Eastern Samar 4
 Using the distances from Table 4.12 and using the costs from page 47, the
cost of each path to be taken is tabulated in Table 4.13. It can be observed that
the distance and cost of the LP from SP is relatively higher than the relief camps.

Table 4.13 Costs of each vehicle for each path

Regions/Provinces Cost of Path for 20' footer Cost of Path for 40' footer
IV-A 45,500.00 52,000.00
V 105,000.00 120,000.00
VIII 157,500.00 180,000.00
Camarines Sur 10,500.00 12,000.00
Sorsogon 10,500.00 12,000.00
Albay 14,000.00 16,000.00
Quezon 21,000.00 24,000.00
Laguna 10,500.00 12,000.00
Cavite 14,000.00 16,000.00
Northern Samar 14,000.00 16,000.00
Samar(Western Samar) 14,000.00 16,000.00
Eastern Samar 14,000.00 16,000.00

4.5.7. Model Validation

The model was run in Microsoft Excel with its solver feature of
Evolutionary Algorithm. The model would be run with a default rate of
convergence at 0.0001, a mutation rate of 0.05, a default population size
of 100, a default random seed of 0, and a maximum time without
improvement of 30 seconds.

The assigned values for 𝑤𝑒 is shown on Table 4. 14. The assigned

weight for 𝑤1 is 0.3; for 𝑤2 is 0.3; for 𝑤3 is 0.4; for 𝑤4 is 0.8. The total
amount of the weights is 1.8. The value for 𝑤4 is 0.8 in order to avoid
distribution inefficiency. The value of the sum surpasses 1 because the
cost and distribution are considered different objectives.
 Table 4. 14 Assigned Weights

Weights Value
1 0.3
2 0.3
3 0.4
4 0.8

The first run was made in the Solver. The first run took 184 s real time and
58141 iterations in order to come up with a solution to the problem starting with a
solution of about 334 B. Table 4. 15 shows the values of the first run. The values
indicated in Table 4. 15 are already treated with the weights. It can be seen that
the transportation cost from SP to LP is 20,286,300 while the transportation cost
from LP to DP is 2,971,650. This is true because the unit cost of using a vehicle
is relatively larger for travels from SP to LP that in LP to DP. It can also be
observed that the inventory cost has major contribution to the grand total cost of
the objective function. The number of unmet demand observed in the first run
was 0.

Table 4. 15 Objective Function Values for First Scenario

Unmet
Trans. Cost SP LP Trans. Cost LP DP Inventory Cost Demand Grand Total

Total 20,286,300.00 2,971,650.00 2,195,406,297.63 0 2,218,664,247.63

Table 4. 16 shows the raw value of the transportation cost for each travel
type: from SP to LP and LP to DP. It can be observed that the value of
transportation cost from SP to LP (67,621,000) is at least six times the value of
the transportation cost from LP to DP (9,905,500).

Table 4. 16 Transportation Costs

Transportation Cost for SP to LP Transportation Cost for LP to DP

67,621,000 9,905,500
 Table 4.17 shows the minimum number of vehicles needed in order to
transport the relief goods from the SP to each DP of each province. It can be
observed that the amount of vehicles allocated to each province is also directly
proportional to the number of yielded population in the area.

Table 4.17 Vehicle Allocation for Each Province

TRANSPORTATION
COST 20' Footer 40' Footer
Albay 88 8
Camarines Sur 160 14
Cavite 48 4
Eastern Samar 7 1
Laguna 56 5
Northern Samar 61 6
Quezon 113 10
Sorsogon 105 9

Table 4. 18 shows the inventory and product cost for each type of relief
items. Since the ratio for food items to person is 13:3 unlike the ratio for non-food
items which is 4:5, the cost for each type of relief items vary largely from one
another. Since the cost for food items is also about a third higher than the value
of unit cost for non-food items, this also become one factor that affects the
difference between the two. It can also be observed that 5 billion pesos is already
needed to be allocated for food items if donation of supplies is not considered.

Table 4. 18 Inventory Cost and Production Cost For Each Relief Items

INVENTORY AND
PRODUCT COST Food Items Non-Food Items
INVENTORY COST 2,789,930,229 346,364,482
PROCUREMENT COST 3,719,906,972 461,819,309

The next run was done with the second scenario. The run took 298 s real-
time and took 31497 iterations in order to come up with a solution. It can be
observed that the value of the objective function for the grand total increased
from the first run (approx. 300 M difference). The values for the transportation
 cost for each set of paths also differ. The value of the transportation cost from SP
to DP became 16,582,050 from 20,286,300.00 in the first run. The value of the
transportation cost from LP to DP became 3,871,650.00 from 2,971,650.00 in the
first run. It can be observed that the value for the first type of transportation cost
decreased but the value for the second type increased, although the increase of
the value for the transportation cost does not tally with the amount of increase
from the first run. The value of the inventory cost became 2,527,373,735.63 from
2,195,406,297.63. Through here it can already observed that the inventory cost
may play a critical role in the value of the inventory cost. The value of the unmet
demand is still 0.

Table 4. 19 Objective Function Values for Second Scenario

Unmet
Trans. Cost 1 Trans. Cost 2 Inventory Cost Demand Grand Total

Total 16,582,050.00 3,871,650.00 2,527,373,735.63 0 2,547,827,435.63

Table 4. 20 shows the raw value of each type of transportation cost. Here,
the total value of the transportation cost is 68,179,000.00. It can be observed that
the value of the type of transportation may differ from the first scenario but the its
characteristics remains untouched.

Table 4. 20 Transportation Cost for Second Scenario

Transportation Cost for Transportation Cost for

SP to LP LP to DP
TRANSPORTATION COST 55,273,500 12,905,500

Table 4. 21 shows the vehicle allocation for the second scenario. It can be
seen that there are some observable changes in the values of vehicles allocated
in each path. The number of vehicles allocated for each province was slightly
skewed to the provinces within region IV-A. The number of vehicles allocated for
the Region V decreased significantly as well.
 Table 4. 21 Vehicle Allocation for Second Scenario

TRANSPORTATION COST 20' Footer 40' Footer

Albay 44 4
Camarines Sur 80 7
Cavite 118 10
Eastern Samar 4 1
Laguna 140 12
Northern Samar 31 3
Quezon 281 24
Samar(Western Samar) 14 2
Sorsogon 53 5

Table 4. 22 shows the raw values of inventory and product cost for the
second scenario. It can be observed that the values of each relief items vary from
the values of the first run, but the characteristics of the values from the first run
can still be observed in the second scenario.

Table 4. 22 Inventory and Product Cost

INVENTORY AND
PRODUCT COST Food Items Non-Food Items
INVENTORY COST 3,211,795,644 398,738,264
PROCUREMENT COST 4,282,394,192 531,651,019

The first scenario uses the real event where the typhoon landfall in Albay
causing the Region V to have the most yielded population among the regions.
The second scenario assumes that the Typhoon would landfall on Quezon
causing the most yielded population in the Region IV-A. Table 4. 23 shows the
summary of the objective function values for the two scenarios.
 Table 4. 23 Summary of Objective Function Values for each Scenario

Unmet
Trans. Cost 1 Trans. Cost 2 Inventory Cost Grand Total
Demand
Landfall in Albay 20,286,300.00 2,971,650.00 2,195,406,297.63 0 2,218,664,247.63

Landfall in Quezon 16,582,050.00 3,871,650.00 2,527,373,735.63 0 2,547,827,435.63

4.5.8. Sensitivity Analysis

A sensitivity analysis was done in the objective function in order to

determine the criteria that contribute the most in the significant change in the
value of the objective function. The sensitivity analysis was done through the use
of a spider plot which would show the change in the value of the objective
function for each periodic change in the value of the criterion. The sensitivity
analysis was done through a 5 percent change in the criterion. The criterion
would be ranked according to the resulting derivative or slope of the criterion
change.

Sensitivity Analysis
3,500,000,000.00

3,000,000,000.00

2,500,000,000.00

2,000,000,000.00 Trans. Cost SP LP

Trans. Cost LP DP
1,500,000,000.00
Inventory Cost
1,000,000,000.00 Unmet Demand

500,000,000.00

-
30%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%

0%
5%
-5%

Figure 4. 3 Sensitivity Analysis for the objective criteria

 Figure 4.1 shows the graphical representation of the sensitivity analysis
through the use of a spider plot. It can be observed that the inventory cost has
the steepest lope among the four criteria. The difference between the rest cannot
be clearly observed in the spider plot. Thus, the numerical value of the derivative
of each criterion change was tabulated in order to clearly assess the criterion.
Table 4. 24 shows the derivative of each criterion change. It can be observed that
there is significant difference among the factors or criterion because of the
inventory cost. This is the reason why the two scenarios differ in value by at least
300 M. With this value, the criteria can be ranked according to the amount of
derivative. The first would be the inventory cost, next would be the transportation
from SP to LP, next would be the transportation from LP to DP and the last is the
unmet demand.

Table 4. 24 Derivative of each sensitivity analysis for each criterion

Criteria Derivative
Trans. Cost SP LP 20,286,300.00
Trans. Cost LP DP 2,971,650.00
Inventory Cost 2,195,406,297.63
Unmet Demand -

4.5.9. Objective Function with budget constraint

In order to determine how much improvement can be made by the

algorithm and the model to the humanitarian supply chain, a budget actually used
in the operations by NDRRMC was used. The budget constraint was appended
to the objective function as shown in equation (11). The budget constraint taken
from NDRRMC is 69,165,033. Since the values acquired from the inventory and
product cost significantly surpasses the value of the budget, the inventories to be
used in this strategy would be coming from donation-based supplies. The criteria
 to be considered here would be the transportation cost from SP to LP and LP to
DP and unmet demand.

Table 4. 25 shows the values of the of the objective function and its criteria
after three runs on the problem. Here it can be seen that the value of the
transportation cost from SP to LP is 28,088,700.00 and from LP to DP is
4,098,450. The unmet demand is still zero and the model was able to save
36,977,882.93 from the given budget. Here it can be seen that the improvements
made by the model and algorithm saved about half the budget (46.54%). Since
the inventory cost was not included in the problem, a large amount of cost was
lost in the objective function. This shows that donation-based supplies allow
significant savings to humanitarian organizations because of the large costs it
incurs.

Table 4. 25 Objective Function Values with Budget Constraint

Transportation Cost Transportation Cost

1 2 Unmet Demand Budget Grand Total

28,088,700.00 4,098,450.00 0 69,165,033 36,977,882.93

Table 4. 26 shows the vehicle allocation for the problem with budget
constraint. It can be seen that the value did not differ from the values taken from
the first run of the first scenario.

Table 4. 26 Vehicle Allocation for Objective with budget Constraint

TRANSPORTATION COST 20' Footer 40' Footer

Albay 88 40
Camarines Sur 160 73
Cavite 48 22
Eastern Samar 7 3
Laguna 56 26
Northern Samar 61 28
Quezon 113 51
Samar(Western Samar) 27 13
Sorsogon 105 48
 CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1. INTRODUCTION

This chapter would discuss the summary of the study. The results
taken from the data analysis chapter would be summarized in this chapter
as well together with the insights of the researcher about the different
aspects of the study. A conclusion would be formulated according to the
summarized results of the study. Recommendation would also be given by
the researcher in order to improve the results of further studies.

5.2. CONCLUSION

The study utilizes a three-echelon humanitarian supply chain

model for disaster relief that used decisions for a single-period planning,
multi-product, and heterogeneous fleets. The study has observed that the
model was able to improve the supply chain since it has considered
yielded population that was not located in and out of evacuation centers
since the real operation was not able to serve all yielded population. The
study was able to determine the minimum amount of vehicles to be used
in order to transport the relief goods from one echelon to another. The
served population in the real operations was the population located near
evacuation centers, whether they utilize the indoor facilities of the
evacuation center or not. With the use of the evolutionary genetic
algorithm in Excel, the model was able to acquire results with fast
considerable speeds in a medium-end computer with a intel processor of
core i3, a RAM of 1 GB, and a hard disk drive of 500 GB. The model was
able to run in the model with the acquired solution taking a maximum of 5
minutes real time and an observed maximum sub-problem approximately
60,400.
 The study was able to eliminate unmet demand but has incurred a
large amount of cost because of inventory. This shows that the model mimics
the real nature of the humanitarian operations since its primary objective is to
maximize distribution over minimizing cost. The study was able to determine
that most of the cost of a humanitarian supply chain comes from inventory
and product cost if they do not consider donation-based supplies. This shows
how much the donation-based supply critically and significantly affects the
efficiency of a humanitarian supply chain.

The study has utilized two scenarios where the path of the typhoon
Glenda was altered in order to come up with a different set of demand per
location. Each scenario was solved in a deterministic methodology and the
results of both scenarios are summarized in order to deal with the stochastic
nature of disaster.

The study was also able to determine the significant criteria which
affect the efficiency and the value of the supply chain. According to the
sensitivity analysis, the most significant criterion is the inventory cost. This
again also relates to the significance of donation-based supply to the
efficiency of supply chain. Transportation costs are next in the ranking of the
criteria while the unmet demand was not observed since the model has
eliminated it.

The study was also able to determine the improvements made by the
model to the real situation by plugging in the objective function the budget
constraint that was also used in the actual operation. The model was able to
save at most half of the budget by considering donation-based supplies for its
operations.
5.3. RECOMMENDATION

The study has observed that the use of a single-period planning

horizon limits the number of conclusion that can be formulated from the study.
The same results can still be achieved from a single-period planning horizon
but a multi-period planning horizon would give better granularity of data that
would be able to assist humanitarian managers in deciding what can be done
before, during, and after disaster since the effects of the disaster to a
community is highly stochastic.

The study has used heterogeneous fleets in order to come up with

different logistics strategies during a disaster. Since the availability of data is
limited, only two types of vehicles commonly used in humanitarian operations
was used in the study. Further studies can use an increased variety of
vehicles that are used in humanitarian logistics, such as armored convoys,
ambulances, and such. This strategy would require further analysis and this
would make the model more complex.

The study has used the evolutionary genetic algorithm in order to

run the model and acquire results. The results taken from the algorithm was
acquired within 5 minutes real-time which can be considered fast for a type of
metaheuristics. This shows that the evolutionary genetic algorithm was able
to improve the solution search process of the model problem. This algorithm
has already been partnered with other algorithms in order to improve its
computational capabilities since it still has some downsides whenever it is
used specifically when the initial solution is too bad. The literatures have
already attempted to combine this algorithm with other metaheuristics like
simulated annealing. These hybrid algorithms can be recommended for use in
other related fields to humanitarian supply chain.
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