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Flood Hazard Zoning of Tarlac City: Towards the Development of Flood

Overlay Zones and Provision

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DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.010

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 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
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ScienceDirect
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Available Engineering
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Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76

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Flood Hazard Zoning of Tarlac City: Towards the Development of
Flood Hazard Zoning of Tarlac City: Towards the Development of
Flood Overlay Zones and Provision
Flood Overlay Zones and Provision
Dr. Murphy P. Mohammed*
Dr. Murphy P. Mohammed*
College of Engineering, Tarlac State University
College of Engineering,
Tarlac City, Tarlac State University
Philippines
Tarlac City, Philippines

Abstract
Abstract
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© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
© 2017
© 2018 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibilityby
of the scientific committee of the 7th International Conference on Building Resilience.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 7th International Conference on Building Resilience.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 7th International Conference on Building Resilience.
Keywords: Flood Hazard Zoning, Flood Overlay Zones, Risk Management
Keywords: Flood Hazard Zoning, Flood Overlay Zones, Risk Management

*Corresonding author. Tel.: +639228142577

*Corresonding
Email address: author. Tel.: +639228142577
:eng_mpm@yahoo.com
Email address: :eng_mpm@yahoo.com

1877-7058 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

1877-7058
Peer-review©under
2017 responsibility
The Authors. Published by Elsevier
of the scientific Ltd. of the 7th International Conference on Building Resilience.
committee
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 7th International Conference on Building Resilience.

1877-7058 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 7th International Conference on Building Resilience
10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.010
2 M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

70 Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76

1. Introduction

The Philippines is one of the countries around the world oftentimes experiencing disasters such as earthquake,
volcanic eruption, typhoon, tsunami, drought, as well as flooding among others. Flooding is the most frequently
experienced phenomenon in the Philippines due to the monsoon rains and typhoons experienced by the country. On
average, the country experiences about 20 typhoons (more or less) per year. On the other hand, monsoon rain affects
the weather system of the country for about six months or half of the year. This causes flooding in many parts of the
country.
Excessive rainfall runoff can cause urban flooding as well as breach on river dikes or levees which likewise can
cause flooding to low lying towns and villages. Damage to property, agriculture, as well as loss of lives may be
encountered during floods. The Philippines experienced several disasters related to flooding which caused many
deaths and damage to property in the last decade.
The province of Tarlac in the Philippines is one of the commonly flooded areas due to its geographical
characteristics. The province is surrounded by high mountains along its eastern outskirt (part of Nueva Ecija and
Aurora provinces) and western outskirt (province of Zambales) but predominantly the province is a vast flat area.
The province of Tarlac has 17 municipalities and one city.
The population of Tarlac City is 342,493, based on the 2015 National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)
data [1]. There are 141,439 people residing in the urban barangays whereas in the rural barangays there are 201,054
residents.
According to the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (CDRRMO), several barangays in the
city were identified as flood prone, heavily flooded areas, and/or isolated during heavy rains. Based on the record of
the CDRRMO, 17 out of the 76 barangays or 22.37 percent are prone to flooding.
The Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) of Tarlac City was approved in 2003 and to be adapted up to 2010.
In 2014, the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) released a new guide to comprehensive land use
plan preparation. The following year, Tarlac City initiated to update the CLUP. Unfortunately, several years passed
but the new CLUP of Tarlac City is yet to be approved.
Section 13.2 of the 2014 CLUP Guidebook of the HLURB states that flood overlay zone regulations are applied
in areas that have been determined in the CLUP as flood-prone. The objective of the flood overlay zone is to protect
lives and properties from the harmful effects of flood [2].
Flood risk is a function of two arguments: hazard probability and vulnerability. In other words, risk is a
mathematical expectation of vulnerability (consequences) function. Flood probabilities are determined in order to
produce flood hazard maps [3]. Flood risk may be treated as a set of triplets: a set of scenarios, scenario
probabilities, and consequences per scenario [4]. Flood risk assessment consists of four steps: (i) hazard assessment;
(ii) exposure assessment; (iii) vulnerability assessment; and (iv) risk assessment [5]. Flood hazard risk is usually
measured by the probability that a flood will occur [6].
Water level can represent flood risk, although total flood volume or flood velocity can likewise be used to
measure flood risk [7]. Flood hazard risk assessment is important in ensuring healthy and sustainable development
of human society [8]. Flood may result to the destruction of natural environment and natural resources as well as to
the dispersal of epidemic diseases and destruction of habitats [9].
Good planning is the key to minimizing the long-term risks of damage from flooding. The principle is simple –
plan and develop properties, buildings and structures so that they are safe from flooding from the outset without
compromising the safety of other properties. Prevention is far cheaper than the cure [10].

2. Objective of the Study

The present study focuses on the development of flood model for the urban areas or urban barangays of Tarlac
City wherein a flood overlay zone will then be developed based on the flood hazard model. Specifically, the study
tries to attain the following objectives.
 Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76 71
M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000 3

1. To develop a flood inundation model.

2. To determine the flood hazard and susceptibility on the existing land use and to determine the risks on the
urban barangays.
3. To look into the implications of land use policies towards risk management.

3. Research Methodology

The study involved historical, analytical and qualitative methods to obtain its objectives. As regards historical
method, rainfall data were gathered from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAG-ASA). Rainfall data from the synoptic station in Tarlac City were acquired from the Agno
River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (ARFFWC) of PAG-ASA.
Analytical method considered in the study was 2D flood hazard modeling. The use of geographic information
system (ArcGIS version 10.2), LIDAR/SAR DEM data, raster and vector images of the study area, rainfall data, and
FLO-2D Basic software were utilized in the study.
Qualitative method involved in the study was the conduct of workshops with the stakeholders of Tarlac City.
The stakeholders were identified by the Tarlac City government whom it wished to involve in the aforesaid
workshop. The stakeholders were involved in the formulation of policies and strategies which may lessen the flood
hazards and risks towards the urban communities based on the results of the developed flood hazard modelling.
Officials present during the workshop were from the: City Planning and Development Office; City Environment and
Natural Resources Office; City Social Welfare and Development; City Engineering Office; City Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Office; and representative from the City Administrator’s Office.

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Flood Inundation Model

The current study developed several flood hazard models based on the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 15-year, 25-year,
50-year, and 100-year extreme rainfall data gathered from the Agno River Flood Forecasting and Warning Center
(ARFFWC) of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The
computed extreme rainfall value was based on the 9 years of gathered rainfall data. In Table 1, the computed
extreme values of precipitation are presented.
The FLO2D Basic software was used in the model development. Inputs used in the model were the digital
elevation model (DEM), soil classification, rainfall data, and different shapefiles. The developed inundation model
only covered the urban barangays of Tarlac City wherein 41 percent of the population or about 141,439 of the
populace reside. The central business district, essential facilities, as well as industrial zones are all situated in the
study area. The study area is approximately 52 square kilometers.

Table 1. Computed Extreme Values (in mm) of Precipitation

Return Precipitation
Period 10 20 30 1 2 3 6 12 24
(yrs) mins mins mins hr hrs hrs hrs hrs hrs
2 17.1 25.0 32.1 41.7 50.6 55.8 67.3 82.0 98.6
5 21.9 32.0 41.1 53.4 67.5 75.4 89.9 114.9 138.5
10 25.1 36.7 47.1 61.1 78.8 88.3 104.9 136.6 165.0
15 26.9 39.3 50.4 65.5 85.1 95.6 113.3 148.9 179.9
25 29.1 42.5 54.6 70.9 93.0 104.7 123.8 164.2 198.5
50 32.0 46.9 60.2 78.2 103.6 116.8 137.9 184.6 223.3
100 35.0 51.2 65.7 85.4 114.0 128.9 151.8 204.8 247.9

Based on the soil type classification map acquired from the Provincial Government of Tarlac, the soil type of
the study area is classified as Zaragosa Clay. The specified soil classification became the basis of the researcher as
to the input parameter for the model using the Green and Ampt infiltration method. The Manning’s Roughness
72 Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76
4 M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

Coefficients used in the model were based on the different land cover types for flood plains.

4.2. Flood Hazard and Susceptibility on the existing land use and Risks on the urban barangays

4.2.1. Flood Hazard based on the different extreme rainfall events

According to Project Noah, flood hazards are categorized based on water depth and they are as follows: Low
(less than 0.5m); Medium (between 0.5m to 1.5m); and High (1.5m and above) [11]. In this study the above said
parameters were adopted. In this study the color coding to the set parameters were as follows: Low (Level 1) –
Green; Medium (Level 2) – Yellow; and High (Level 3) – Red.
Figure 1 presents the modeled flood hazard map based on different extreme rainfall return periods. It can be
observed as a result of the modeling that for a 2-year rainfall return period, majority of the areas were categorized as
prone to low flood hazard level. In addition, some areas were prone to medium flood hazard level. As different
rainfall return periods are modeled, it can be observed that areas previously categorized as prone to low level flood
hazard became prone to medium as well as to high flood hazard levels.
The flood hazard maps based on the 25, 50 and 100-year extreme rainfall return periods indicated that little has
changed as to the flood hazard level among the affected areas. Change from low to medium flood hazard level in
some areas is still observable in the identified hazard maps based from the aforesaid rainfall return periods.

2-year Return Period 5-year Return Period 10-year Return Period 15-year Return Period

25-year Return Period 50-year Return Period 100-year Return Period Study Area

Figure 1. Flood Hazard Map

Some areas of barangays San Sebastian, San Rafael, San Miguel and Maliwalo are prone to Level 3 or high
flood hazard level. The aforesaid barangays have several residents residing along the indicated hazard level. As
attested by the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management team, there were several instances wherein high flood
level was observed among the indicated barangays which resulted to the evacuation of some residents.
High water level can also be observed along the major roads within the city based on the developed model. In
some areas, flood level along the road may rise more than 2 meters in depth and with a flow velocity of more than 4
m/s in some areas. This may pose risk to people who are passing along the roads by means of walking as well as
those who are riding small vehicles.
All barangays in the urban area are expected to encounter the Level 1 hazard. Though no harm or danger to
person as well as to structures may be encountered in those areas there is still a possibility of damage to crops along
agricultural areas. This may result to the economic impairment of the farmers and their families.
 M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000 5
Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76 73

4.2.2. Hazard on existing land use plan

In Figure 2, the existing urban land use plan of Tarlac City (image on the left side) and the urban barangays
(image on the right side) are presented. The color coding of the land use map are: Yellow – Residential; Red –
Commercial; Blue – Institutional; Green – Agricultural; and Purple – Industrial area.
Based on the previously presented flood hazard maps, most of the residential areas as well as the commercial
business district of Tarlac City are prone to low and medium flood hazard levels. Higher extreme rainfall return
periods may also affect the industrial area which is situated at barangays Paraiso, Maligaya and Balete. There are
some residential areas which are prone to high flood hazard level based on the 25, 50 and 100-year extreme rainfall
return periods modeled in the study. The barangays with high hazard level are: San Sebastian, San Rafael, San
Miguel and Maliwalo.

LEGEND:
Residential
Commercial
Institutional
Open Space
Agricultural
Industrial
Utility
Grassland
River/Creek
Road

Figure 2. Existing Urban Land Use Plan of Tarlac City and Urban Barangays

Different land uses such as residential area, commercial area, industrial area, educational institutions,
government institutions, agricultural area as well as hospitals will be exposed to Level 1 hazard based on the 100-
year extreme rainfall flood model. Though the hospitals are located along such hazard level, access to them may be
difficult to some residents of the city because some roads will be under higher flood hazard level. Roads which may
encounter Level 2 hazard are McArthur Highway, Zamora St., San Sebastian-San Vicente Diversion Road, Juan
Luna St., Panganiban St., Santa Rosa-Tarlac Road, and Matatalaib Road.

4.2.3. Flood Hazard Susceptibility on existing land use

Most of the residents in the urban barangays are prone from low to high flood hazard levels based on the flood
inundation model developed using the different extreme rainfall return periods. Based on the 100-year rainfall return
period, the result of the flood inundation model revealed that some parts of barangays San Sebastian, San Rafael,
San Miguel, and Maliwalo are prone to high flood hazard level. Residential areas will encounter such hazard level
among the aforementioned barangays. Higher flood depth as well as higher flow velocities may be encountered by
the residents in those areas. Based on the result of the study of Kreibich et al. (2009), the energy head is a suitable
flood impact parameter for forecasting structural damage to residential buildings above a critical impact level of 2.0
meters of energy head or water depth. The increase of flood depth and flow velocity, within the Level 3 hazard area,
74 Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76
6 M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

suggests the possibility of damage to the houses there.

Barangays Carangian, San Vicente, San Pablo, San Roque, San Sebastian, San Rafael, San Miguel, Santo
Cristo, San Nicolas, Matatalaib, San Juan Bautista, Binauganan, Maliwalo, Calingcuan, and San Jose are prone to
Level 2 hazard. Residential areas, commercial areas, industrial area, educational institutions, government
institutions, as well as agricultural areas are prone to Level 2 hazard among the identified barangays. According to
Grahn and Nyberg (2017), higher rainfall intensities increase the number of damaged properties. This may as well
be true to occur to the different land uses which are under the Level 2 hazard. The areas covered or identified,
wherein the aforesaid Level 2 hazard will occur, significantly increase based on the increase of rainfall over the
study area.
Based on the 2015 population census, the identified barangays which are prone to medium and high flood
hazard levels have a population of 119,659. On the other hand, not all residents residing in the aforesaid barangays
are prone to the aforesaid hazard levels.
The increase in flood hazard level over the different land uses, likewise, the increase in flood depth and flow
velocity in those areas pose risk to the different land uses as well as to the community. Most of the vulnerable in
Tarlac City are those: people living near the waterways/creeks; in high hazard level area; houses made of light
materials as well as single storey-houses located in medium to high hazard level area; children and elderly people
residing in medium to high hazard level; business establishments and industry situated along medium to high hazard
level; and inundated agricultural area with flow velocity beyond the capacity of the crop. According to Smith
(2015), the level of danger and the potential to cause damage is increased by the rate of rise of the flood water, the
amount of debris and sediment carried by the flows and the warning time available prior to the flooding.

4.2.4. Risk on the urban barangays

Tarlac City is prone to different risks based on the developed flood models. Risks such as possible damage to
property, risk to life, damage to agriculture, as well as disruption of economic activity may be eminent. The
barangays which may encounter such risks are: San Nicolas, Poblacion, Santo Cristo, San Juan Bautista, Matatalaib,
San Vicente, Carangian, San Pablo, San Luis, Calingcuan, San Jose, Maliwalo, San Roque, Binauganan, San
Sebastian, San Rafael, Suizo, Ungot, San Miguel, Paraiso, Maligaya, Ligtasan, Mabini, Cut-Cut 1, Salapungan,
Sepung Calzada, and Balete.
Hazards such as flood depth, flow velocity, and flow direction will be encountered in the abovementioned
barangays based on the different flood models developed in the study. All barangays will encounter Level 1 hazard
based on the flood models. Some areas will be encountering Level 2 and Level 3 hazard.
Barangays San Nicolas, Poblacion, Santo Cristo, San Jose, Calingcuan, San Vicente, Carangian, San Pablo, San
Luis, Binauganan, San Sebastian, Maliwalo, San Rafael, Ungot, Paraiso, Maligaya, Balete, and San Miguel are
prone to medium as well as to high hazard level which may cause damage to property and agriculture, disruption of
economic activity, as well as harm to people which may also result to the possibility of loss of life. Essential
facilities such as hospitals and schools serving as evacuation centers will become difficult to access for most of the
residents because major roads will encounter significant high flood depths as well as high flow velocity in some
areas. The hospitals are located at barangays Ligtasan, San Nicolas, Poblacion, and San Vicente. Roads leading to
these will encounter high water depth and velocity. These roads are McArthur Highway, Zamora St., Pangaiban St.,
Juan Luna St., M.H. Del Pilar St., Zafiro St., and Santa Rosa-Tarlac Road.

4.3. Implications of land use policies towards risk management

Urban floods cause high damage and mapping of flood risk has become essential for protection and evacuation
planning [12]. The correct interpretation of the maps by the public should lead to the improvement of cooperation
between the public and the experts in the field of flood problem in the future and it should also accelerate changes in
risk communication [13]. Participatory community mapping of flood, the levels of community involvement,
empowerment and representation within flood mapping are standardized. This often loses the richness of
information and the ease of communication with the government, particularly when it comes to regional problems
such as chronic flooding. However, the major cause of the urban floods is still within the realm of state planning to
solve [14].
 Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76 75
M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000 7

While the results of a physical vulnerability assessment can guide policy makers in the right direction of a
strategy that is effective in reducing flood risk, the addition of a social vulnerability assessment will help in tailoring
such strategies to local differences in capacities to implement strategies and needs [15].
Regarding the present study, the modelling results were presented to the local officials of Tarlac City. Several
meetings with the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (CDRRMC) were conducted as regards
understanding the risk, possible role of the government towards risk management, investing to DRR, and enhancing
disaster preparedness.
The results of the workshop with the CDRRMC were the proposed plans of action to be undertaken by the city
government officials. Among the proposed actions to be undertaken are the following: incorporation of flood
overlay zones on the land use plan; updating of the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management plan;
establishment of protocols as to operational communication and disaster response; flood hazard mitigation
strategies; as well as public information and warning.
The community within the different hazard areas should be made aware of the possible risk they might
experience when extreme flooding occurs. Information dissemination, installation of hazard waning systems,
strengthening the capacity of the barangay officials to become community based responders, as well as construction
or improving the drainage systems and maintenance of the waterways can minimize risk or hazard to the
community.
Flood hazard such as flood depth and flow velocity along the different land uses and major road network of the
city should be considered in the disaster plan of the city. The developed flood models in the study may serve as basis
for future policies as well as plan of action as regards the event of extreme flooding. With the proposed updating of
the CLUP, the flood model results can serve as reference to the policy makers on what measures can be adopted to
make the city more resilient to extreme flooding event.
As regards zoning, the incorporation of flood overlay zones along the identified flood prone areas should be
included. Policies and strategies, which will be implemented by the local government and to be adopted by the
community, based on the identified flood hazard zones could be formulated. The different modelling results of the
present study can serve as guide as to policy formulation as well as in formulating strategies which may reduce the
risk posed by flood hazards towards the community. The 2014 CLUP Guide Book by the HLURB suggests
measures which the city officials may use towards formulating a risk sensitive land use plan. This can be adhered to
by the city officials to create more risk resilient communities.

5. Conclusions

Awareness of the community as well as of the local government officials to flood hazard plays an important
role in their understanding flood risk. Flood hazard awareness coupled with disaster preparedness of the community
and local government officials can minimize the possibility of the occurrence of disaster brought about by future
flooding event. In addition, having a disaster risk reduction and management plan means nothing as regards disaster
preparedness and mitigation if no appropriate actions are administered towards its realization.
The options arising from the flood risk management strategy involve a mix of engineering interventions and
non-structural measures [16]. The engineering and non-engineering intervention methods for flood mitigation can be
adopted in areas where high concentration of development and habitation exist. Possible hazard should be
communicated to the community and should be accompanied by information as to possible flood mitigation
measures and practical guidance on how to implement them for their safety. As to the local government, better
targeted flood risk communication strategies could be developed by gaining more insights into the influence of three
variables, namely: response efficacy; self-efficacy; and response costs [17].
The Federal Emergency Management Agency stipulates that regulation for mitigation plan approval requires
that stakeholders and the general public are given opportunities to be involved during the planning process and in
the plan’s maintenance and implementation [18]. This process entails collaboration and feeling of ownership by all
sectors which in turn may result to a more effective implementation of the plans formulated concerning disaster risk
reduction and management.
High hazard level was identified over some residential areas. Medium hazard level was identified over
residential area, commercial area, industrial area, educational institutions, government institutions, as well as
agricultural area. Low hazard level can be expected to occur on the residential area, commercial area, industrial area,
76 Murphy P. Mohammed / Procedia Engineering 212 (2018) 69–76
8 M.P.Mohammed/ Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

educational institutions, government institutions, agricultural area, and hospital area within the city.

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