RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Using the formula for the Lincoln-Petersen Index, the population estimate N was computed.
The raw data, including the total number of marbles and computed N is summarized in Table
1.

In this experiment, marbles were used as a sample for the simulation of captured-released
and recaptured. The marbles were captured for 3 handfuls at first. It was counted as M and
marked. Then it was returned to the bag and mixed. Next, the marbles were recaptured with
the same amount which is 3 handfuls. The marbles were counted and noted as C. Marbles
that have marks on it were counted and noted as R. The steps were repeated with 5
handfuls and 7 handfuls. The population size was calculated by using the Lincoln-Petersen
Index.

Estimated number Estimated number of

Data
Group of marbles using marbles using refined form Percent error
collected
sample calculation calculation
M =68 (68 + 1) × (67 + 1) 669 − 356
68 × 67 −1 × 100
A C =67 = 759 6+1 356
6
R =6 = 669 = 87.9%

M =68 (68 + 1) × (67 + 1) 586 − 356

68 × 67 −1 × 100
B C =67 = 651 7+1 356
7
R =7 = 586 = 64.6%

M =121 (121 + 1) × (124 + 1) 331 − 356

121 × 124 −1 × 100
C C =124 = 333 45 + 1 356
45
R =45 = 331 = 7%

Table 1

By analyzing the data that have been calculated in sample calculation and refined form, the
results show differences in reading. In refined form, the data decreased from 3 handfuls to 7
handfuls. In 3 handfuls, the result is 669. For 5 and 7 handfuls, the results are 586 and 331
respectively.

It is observed that as the R increases in number, the N decreases; they are inversely
proportional. On the other hand, percent error per handful decreases as the number of
marbles collected increases; in other words, the total number of marble collected per
handful is inversely proportional to the percent error. In effect, the higher the total of marbles
collected per handfuls, the lower the population estimate N and the lower the percent error.
This is because less sample will results in less accuracy. Now that the N for thehandfuls
was obtained, the percent error was computed . The general rule for the computations is that
the higher the R, the lower the percent error. That means that a small population sampling
size would yield a higher percent error. As a result, the population estimate that will be
computed will be highly inaccurate. Percent errors are greatly attributed in general to human
errors. In this experiment, human errors could be any of the following: wrong counting of
marbles , and different hand sizes. In the actual use of the capture-recapture methods, other
errors can also be attributed to uncontrolled variables such as the possibility of migration
(immigration and emigration), loss of markings on the animal, and birth and death factors.

This setup will further show the effect of having a small number of M to the total number of
recaptured rice grains R. The general trend among the data obtained by all groups shows
that the lesser the marked marbles, the fewer the recaptured grains. Up to the 7 handfuls
where it is expected that the chance of recapturing marked marbles is high, it is evident that
out of the hundred marbles marked, only a few were recaptured. At the most, only 45
marbles were recaptured out of the 124 marked marbles. For those who are going to use the
capture-recapture method, this implies that the researchers should mark enough organisms
in order to obtain an accurate population estimate. Otherwise, marking a few would yield
few, if not zero, recapture, therefore affecting the population estimate. Following this
concept, marking only a marbles would yield a higher percent error. Indeed, in this
experiment, the ratio that obtained the highest percent error is that of groups A and B,
having a ratio of 6:67 and 7:67, respectively. For group A, the highest percent error obtained
is 87.9% and 64.6% for Group B. Refined form calculation is used to get accurate estimation
and to reduces bias in the population estimate such as different hand sizes.