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7.1 Introduction
In our day to day life, we come across different statements like the following:
a) The index of industrial production in India (Base 1980-81=100) shows a
growth rate is around 8% per year for the year 1984-1985 and 1985-86.
b) The index of rice yield in India (Base 1969-70=100) rises to 258.7 for the
year 1985-1986.
c) The general level of prices has registered an increase of 2%.
When we talk of the industrial production, it is obvious that we are referring
to the production of all those commodities that are produced by the
industrial sector. Now, production of some of all these commodities may be
increasing while of others may be stagnant or falling. Similarly the prices of
some commodities increase and others decrease like the price of rice,
wheat, sugar has increased and the price of mobile phones, computers, and
laptops has decreased compared to the previous years. Thus, we require a
system to know how much of change occur over a period of time. We may
want to know how much the price of petrol/diesel has increased, or how
much the price of our favorite pizzas, burgers have increased so that we can
spend accordingly. Similarly companies require the past sales,
transportation cost , cost of raw materials etc and compare it with those of
the present year .We can also take the example of the educations
institutions comparing the fees of different courses charged in the previous
years and deciding about the amount to be charged in the coming year. In
all of the above cases the degree of change must be determined and
defined in order to know about the amount the change that needs to be
made . Let us take another real life example of where index number is
used. Suppose the index number of the year 2010 in comparison to the year
2009 is 115. (We will learn the calculation later in the chapter). This signifies
that there is an increase of 15% in the goods and services which are taken
into consideration while calculating the index number of the year 2010
based on 2009. This information gives the government and other employers
about the percentage of hike in the salary in order to ensure the same living
standard of their employees.
Such differences of changes like the 15% change(increase)which gave a
basis for the government in above example is one of the area where Index
Numbers are applied. In the following section, we will study the meaning of
index numbers, its use, importance, methodology, and application.
Objectives:
After studying this unit, you should be able to:
Describe the meaning & importance of index numbers
Discuss about different types of index numbers
Explain the different methods of construction of index numbers
Identify the uses of index numbers
Discuss Consumer Price Index
called the current period with respect to its value in some fixed period called
base period selected for comparison.
For example, if we want to measure the relative change in the price level,
we would not be able to do so by using the averages because price of
different commodities are expressed in different units, such as kilogram,
litre, meter etc. In such cases, we require some special types of average
which will enable us to measure changes in the price level. Index numbers
are such an average.
The following are the characteristics of index numbers:
a) They are expressed in percentage: Index numbers is calculated as the
ratio of the current value to the base year value expressed as a
percentage. The index for the base year is taken to be 100 and the
change in the current year is always calculated in comparison to the
base year.
b) They are specialized averages: An index number is a specialized
average. As discussed above also , it is used for comparison in cases
where the items to be compared have different units like a consumer
price index number would consist of Rice , Sugar , Milk, Tea, Kerosene
Oil which have different units like kilogram , litre etc. The index number
is obtained as a result of an average of all these items which are
expressed in different units. Thus index number is a specialized average
which takes into consideration all the different items measured in
different units taken together.
c) Relative Measure: Index number measures changes which are not
capable of direct measurement.
d) They are for comparison: The index number by their nature is
comparative. They compare changes taking place over time or between
places
that for the same commodities we will have to pay 25% extra to purchase
the same amount of commodities in the year 2010 which could be bought at
2007.
Similarly when the comparison is in respect of quantity, it is called quantity
index number. A quantity index number measures the changes in the
quantity from one period to another period .In this index number the focus is
on the quantum of production and not on the price .We compare how many
units of commodities of a group of products are manufactured during the
current year and compare whether it has increased or decreased in
comparison to the base year. The most popular index of this type is the
index of industrial production which measures the increase the increase or
decrease in the level of industrial production in a given period compared to
the base year.
The last one is the value index number, where the comparison is made
based on the value which is the product of both price and quantity .It
combines both price and quantity to give a combined or mutual effect in
making comparisons. The value index is usually used in sales and
inventories where effect of both quantity and price are required. However
this index number is unable to distinguish the effect of the price and quantity
separately.
4. Consumer Price Index, a type of index umber guides the authorities and
the government for the fixation and revision of wages.
5. They help in comparing the economic conditions of a particular group at
two different periods or between different groups of people in the same
period.
6. Index numbers serves as a guide for making relevant investment
decisions for example the investment index like Sensex and Nifty give a
lot of information to the investors about the performance of the market
and help them take rational decision.
Step 2. Add the base year prices for same commodities of Find P 0
Step 3. Divide the total of current year prices by the total of base year prices
and multiply the quotient by 100 that is
P01
P 100
1
P 0
Where P01 is the simple price index of current year “1” based on base year
“0”
Merits
It is very simple to calculate.
Demerits
The relative importance of different commodities is not taken into
consideration.
This method does not reflect the real situation as the changes in prices
are not linked to changes in quantity consumed.
Large numbered figures greatly affect the index numbers.
We will understand it better with the help of an example
Example 1: Find the unweighted simple aggregative price index for the year
2011 taking 2005 as the base year and also interpret the results.
Commodity Unit 2005( P0 ) 2011 ( P1 )
We have taken the base year as 2005 and current year as 2011.
Substituting the values in the formula we get
P01
P 100
1
P 0
Rice(1Kg) Kilogram 15 25
Mustard Oil(1Kg) Litre 50 65
L P G(1Kg) Kilogram 250 350
Bengal Gram (1Kg) Kilogram 20 42
Sugar( 10kgs ) Kilogram 180 480
Total 515 962
P1
P 100
P0
P1
100
P01 P0
N
Step 2. b. Calculation by the geometric mean
Calculate the geometric mean for the price relative obtained in step 1 and
denote it by P01
P1
log P 100
P01 anti log 0
N
We will solve a problem to understand it
Example 2: The Prices of wheat, rice & corn for the year 2005 and 2010 are
given below. The prices given are for per ton of the commodity. Calculate
the price index by using the simple average of relatives method by using
both arithmetic mean and geometric mean taking base year as 2005.
P1
100
P01 P0
N
= 451.6
3
P01 150.54
P1
log P 100
P01 anti log 0
N
= anti log6.52 / 3
= 149.05
Merits
Equal importance is given to all items
Extreme items do not unduly affect the index
Demerits
The use of geometric mean involves difficulties of computation.
It fails to give any consideration to the relative importance of different
items just like the simple aggregate method
2. Weighted Index Numbers
In this method weights are assigned to various commodities according to
their significance and consequently weighted index improves the accuracy
of the index number as compared to the unweighted one. Usually the
quantity consumed during the base year or the current year is taken as the
weights to obtain the weighted aggregate index numbers.
There are different methods to find each of which are discussed below:
a) Laspeyre’s Price Index: The Laspeyre‟s price index is a weighted
aggregate price index where the weights are the base year‟s quantities. The
formula given by Laspeyre is as follows :
P01
PQ1 0
100
Laspeyre‟s Price Index
P Q0 0
Q01
Q P 1 0
100
Laspeyre‟s Quantity Index
Q P 0 0
Demerits
Laspeyre‟s method tends to overestimate the rise in prices or has an
upward bias. As we know that a considerable price increase would result
in a slight decrease in the consumption of those commodities. When
base year quantities are used as weights, it will result in assigning too
much weight to prices that have increased the most. Thus the numerator
of the Laspeyre‟s index would be high. Similarly when the prices have
decrease, consumers tend to increase their demand of those
commodities whose prices have decreased and hence the usage of the
base year period quantities would result in too low weight to prices that
have decreased the most. This is the major disadvantage of Laspeyre‟s
method
b) Paasche’s Method: Paasche‟s method is based on current year‟s
quantities. Current year‟s quantities are used as weights. Paasche‟s price
Index is given as
PQ
Paasche‟s Price Index P01 100
1 1
P Q
0 1
Q P 0 1
P1Q0 P1Q1
P Q P Q
0 0 0 1
P01 100
2
Where P1 =current year price; P0 = base year price; Q0 Base year
quantity
Q1 Current year quantity
Merits:
It is free from bias upward as well as downward.
This formula takes into account both current year and base year prices
and quantities
Demerits:
This index is not widely used owing to the practical limitations of
collecting data
d) Fisher’s Ideal Index Method: In this method the price index is the
geometric mean of Laspeyre‟s and Paasche‟s Price Indices. The formula is
as follows :
P1Q0 P1Q1
P01 100
P Q P Q
0 0 0 1
1990 2000
Commodities
Price Quantity Price Quantity
A 30 8 50 6
B 75 10 100 5
C 50 15 75 15
D 25 20 30 25
Solution:
The four methods are
i) Laspeyre‟s Price Index
ii) Paasche‟s Method
iii) Dorbish and Bowley‟s method
iv) Fisher‟s Ideal Index Method
1990 2000
Commodities P0 Q0 P0 Q1 P1Q0 P1Q1
P0 Q0 P1 Q1
A 30 8 50 6 240 180 400 300
B 75 10 100 5 750 375 1000 500
C 50 15 75 15 750 750 1125 1125
D 25 20 30 25 500 625 600 750
Total 180 53 255 51 2240 1930 3125 2675
PQ
Laspeyre‟s Price Index P01 100
1 0
P Q 0 0
= 3125/2240
= 139.51
PQ
Paasche‟s Price Index P01 100
1 1
P Q 0 1
= 2675/1930
=138.60
Dorbish and Bowley‟s Price Index
3125 2675
P01 100
2240 1930
P01 139.05
P01
PV
V
Where P is price relative and V is value weights
Case 2: By Geometric Mean
Step1: Find individual price relatives
Pr ice of item in current year
Pr ice Re lative for current year P 100
Pr ice of item in base year
P1
P 100
P0
Step 2. Compute the logarithm of each of price relatives i.e. log P
Step 3. Compute the value V by finding the product of the base year price
P0 and base year quantities Q0 of various commodities and obtain the sum
as
V P Q 0 0
Step 4 : Find the product of log P and V and get the sum as V log P
Step 5: Compute the price index by the following formula
Solution:
P0 Q0 P1
P1
price quantity price P 100
2007 2007 2008
V P0 Q0 P0 PV log P V log P
5 10 7 50 140.00 7000.00 2.15 107.31
7 5 8 35 114.29 4000.00 2.06 72.03
9 5 15 45 166.67 7500.00 2.22 99.98
6 4 8 24 133.33 3200.00 2.12 51.00
TOTAL 154 554.29 21700.00 8.55 330.32
P01
PV
V
Substituting in the formula we get
21700
P01
154
=140.9
V
PQ1 1
100
P Q0 0
P
Suppose if 01 be the index number for the current period „1‟ with the base
year „0‟ and let P10 be another index number with the current period ‟0‟ and
base year „1‟, then the particular index number satisfies time reversal test if
P01 P10 1
P01 Q01
PQ
1 1
P Q
0 0
based on the year „c‟ , we should get the same result when we calculate the
index for the year a base on the year c.
Symbolically
P01
PQ1 0
100
P Q0 0
P01
WI P1
100 ; W P 0 Q0
Where I
W P0
Solution:
Consumer price index by 2008 on the basis of 2007 from the following data
using
(i) Aggregate expenditure method :
P0 P1
quantity P0 Q0 P1Q0
Commodities Unit 2007 2008
2007( Q0 )
C
4 quintal 416 419 1664 1676
D 9 quintal 530 625 4770 5625
E 3 kg 18 23 54 69
F 5 quintal 1050 1070 5250 5350
15363 16430
P01
PQ 1 0
100
P Q 0 0
16430
P01 100
15363
=106.94
P01
WI P1
100 ; W P 0 Q0
Where I
W P0
P0 P1
P1
Commo- quantity I 100 W P 0 Q0
dities 2007 P0 WI
( Q0 )
Unit 2007 2008
E 3 kg 18 23 127.78 54 6900.12
P01
WI
W
1642939
P01
15363
= 106.941
14. During the construction of consumer price index, it is assumed that the
quantity of goods consumed will remain the same in the base year and
current year. (True/False)
15. _______________ is an index number of the cost met by a specified
class of consumers in buying a „basket of goods and services‟.
7.11 Summary
In this chapter, at first, we learnt the need for index number and also the
meaning and types of index number. We learnt that index number is an
indicator which helps us to measure the relative change between current
year and base year. The three types of index number are price, quantity and
value index number. The primary purpose of index number are to provide a
value useful for comparing magnitude of aggregates of related variables to
each other and to measure the changes over time . It acts as an indicator
just as the way a thermometer measures the temperature .This indicator or
index number then acts as a base to decide about the various changes
which need to take place such as decisions regarding tax rates, minimum
wages, and export import duties.
In the second stage, we studied about the uses of index number and
methods of constructing index numbers. The two main types are the
unweighted index numbers and the weighted index numbers. Unweighted
index number does not take the weights into consideration where as
weighted index number take base year quantities and current year
quantities into consideration. The fisher index number is considered to be
the ideal index number as it is free from any bias but the data collection
would be laborious.
In the third stage, we discussed about the consumer price index, where we
learnt that it is an index number of the cost met by a specified class of
consumers in buying a „basket of goods and services‟
Finally, we learnt about the limitations of index numbers wherein we saw
that index numbers are only approximate values .They are different methods
to calculate and each method give a different answer .
7.12 Glossary
Base Year: It refers to the year used as the beginning or the reference year
for constructing an index, and which is usually assigned an arbitrary value of
100.
Relative: The value of a variable in a given (current) year divided by the
value of the variable in a specified (base) year. Thus price relative is the
ratio of a new (current year) price to the base year price.
Incentives: It refers to something that incites or tends to incite to action or
greater effort, as a reward offered for increased productivity; here it can be
taken in terms of monetary benefit.
Purchasing Power: It refers to the number of goods/services that can be
purchased with a unit of currency.
4. Construct Fisher‟s Ideal index for the data represented in the table
P0 Q0 P1 Q1
price (Rs ) quantity price (Rs) quantity
Commodity
2007 2007 2008 2008
Rice 4 6 6 8
Wheat 6 7 8 7
Sugar 9 8 16 6
Pulses 8 10 18 5
5. From the data given below compute the index for the year 2009 taking
2008 as the base year by weighted average method of price relatives
using (i) arithmetic mean (ii) geometric mean
Price (Rs ) quantity Price (Rs)
Commodity
2008 2008 2009
A 9 15 14
B 8 6 9
C 6 9 18
D 7 8 9
6. Find the simple aggregative price index from the data taking 2008 as the
base year and 2009 as the current year.
Commodity Unit 2008 2009
Ghee Per Kilogram 220 280
Eggs Per dozen 40 65
Tea Kilogram 250 330
7. Construct a consumer price index of 1988 on the basis of 1987 from the
following data using (i) Aggregate expenditure method (ii) Family budget
method.
Commodities quantity 1987 Unit 1987 1988
A 6 quintal 365 390
B 8 quintal 321 371
C 9 quintal 425 452
D 4 quintal 598 625
E 5 kg 25 30
F 8 quintal 489 529
7.14 Answers
Answers to Self Assessment
1. Index Numbers
2. Price, Quantity , Value
3. Price index by Weighted Average of Relative Method using geometric
mean
4. False
5. Value Index Number
6. Price Relative
7. Weighted Index Numbers
8. Base year quantities
9. True
10. False
11. Aggregate expenditure method and Family budget method
12. False
13. False
14. True
15. Consumer Price Index Number
References
Bharadwaj, R. Business Statistics, New Delhi: Excel Books, New Delhi
Chandan, J., Jagjit Singh., & Khanna, K. Vikas Publishing House: New
Delhi.
Gupta, C., Vijay Gupta, An Introduction to statistical Methods. Vikash
Publishing House: New Delhi.
Richard I. Levin., David S.Rubin, Statistics for management. Eastern
Economy Edition.