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Looking ahead, we expect M&M to sustain ongoing positive momentum on the back of 900
government’s strong rural thrust and expectation of normal monsoon. As M&M’s key product 850
portfolio continues to be rural-focused, it would continue enjoy the benefit of improving rural 800
economy, in our view. Though M&M’s present product line in Automotive segment is lean, it 750
plans to launch 3 UVs (S201, Y400 & U321) over next 8 months with the first product expected 700
to be launched in upcoming festive season. It also plans few launches in MPV, LCV and FES 650
segment over next 6-8 months. Moreover, M&M plans to focus on new technology and EV 600
Aug-18
Aug-17
Aug-17
platform. The Management plans to spend Rs150bn (Capex: Rs100bn & Investment: Rs50bn)
Sep-17
Oct-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Jun-18
May-18
Jan-18
Nov-17
Feb-18
Feb-18
Apr-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Mar-18
in next 3 years. Major chunk of the capex would be spent towards product development,
technology and R&D including BS-VI technology. Maintaining its growth outlook for automotive Note: * CMP as on Aug 08, 2018
segment for FY19, the Management has upped tractor volume guidance to 12-14% (from 8-10%
earlier) in FY19. Focus on core products in UV space would help M&M to regain lost market share
to some extent, in our view.
1
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
ff New Launches: M&M plans to launch three new products in UV space (S201, Y400 &
U321) over next 8months to arrest declining market shares. Apart from refreshing its
key models at regular interval, M&M also plans to launch few ICVs to fill the gap in CV
segment.
ff Price Hike & Cost-saving: M&M managed to pass on about the half of input cost
inflation during FY18, while the balance was absorbed with internal efficiency. Further,
a healthy expansion in operating margin indicates higher cost efficiency to absorb
cost inflation.M&M hiked vehicle prices by 1.5% and 1.2-1.3% in Automotive and FES
segment, respectively.
ff Capex & Investment: The Management plans to spend Rs150bn (Capex: Rs100bn
& Investment: Rs50bn) in next 3 years. It indicated that the major chunk of the capex
would be spent towards product development, technology and R&D including BS-VI
technology.
ff Automotive Volume: Its automotive volume grew by 19.6% YoY (-15% QoQ) to 1,40,101
units. Domestic volume grew by 16% YoY,while exports volume more than doubled
(+101% YoY). Its UV volume rose by 6% YoY, MPV volume surged by 59% YoY, while LCV
segment volume rose by 20% YoY. 3W volume increased by 29% YoY. M&M’s market
share in UV segment declined by 400bps YoY to 23.9%, which rose by 150bps YoY to
7.7% in MPV segment. Market share fell by 920bps YoY and 120bps YoY to 33.9% and
8% in LCV and 3W segment, respectively.
ff FES Volume: Tractor volume grew by a strong 19% YoY to 100,784 units, with domestic
volume growing by 20% YoY to 97,360 units and exports rising by 16% YoY to 3,593
units. Its segmental market share stood at 43.7% in 1QFY19.
Key Risks
ff Slowdown in domestic economy and lower-than-estimated rural growth owing to
abnormal monsoon.
ff Sharp rise in input cost and limited ability to pass on the same.
2
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
3
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
Exhibit 2: M&M+MVML
YE March (Rs. mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%)
Total Revenue 133,577 108,775 22.8 131,888 1.3
Less:
Adv.& Sales Promotion Exp./Net Sales 10.5 11.7 (115) 12.7 (222)
Personnel/Net Sales 6.3 7.3 (103) 6.0 30
Source: Company, RSec Research; Note: NA - Not Applicable
4
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
Exhibit 5: Domestic Market Share Trend - PV Exhibit 6: Domestic Market Share Trend - CV
(%) (%) (%) (%)
35 0.3 48.0 5.0
30
0.2 4.0
25 44.0
20 0.2 3.0
40.0
15 0.1 2.0
10
0.1 36.0
5 1.0
0 - 32.0 -
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
Exhibit 7: Domestic Market Share Trend - 3-wheelers Exhibit 8: Domestic Market Share Trend - Tractors
(%) (%)
46.0
12.0
10.5 44.0
9.0 42.0
7.5 40.0
6.0
38.0
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
3-Wheelers
Farm Equipment (Tractor)
5
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
100% (Rs.mn)
23 120,000
32 28 35 35 32 28
80% 35 37
100,000
60% 80,000
60,000
40% 73
65 68 62 62 64 68
61 60 40,000
20%
20,000
0% -
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
Automotive Farm Equipment Revenue (LHS) EBIDTA (LHS)
Exhibit 11: EBITDA & EBITDA Margin Trend Exhibit 12: Segmental EBIT Margin Trend
(Rs) (%) (Rs mn) (%)
100,000 20.0 100,000 25.0
40,000 10.0
40,000 8.0
20,000 5.0
20,000 4.0
- -
- -
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
1Q FY18
2Q FY18
3Q FY18
4Q FY18
1Q FY19
1Q FY17
2Q FY17
3Q FY17
4Q FY17
SOTP Valuation
We assign an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs1,035 (valuing M&M+MVML at 7.5x FY20E EBIDTA at Rs723 and subsidiary at Rs312 post-20% discount
to mkt. cap.)
Value of subsidiaries
Tech Mahindra 646,450 26.1 168,723 141 Current market cap
M&M Financial Services 303,320 51.2 155,300 130 Current market cap
Mahindra Lifespace 25,860 51.1 13,214 11 Current market cap
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts 38,190 75 28,643 24 Current market cap
Ssangyong Motors 39,956 72.9 29,128 24 Current market cap
Mahindra Logistics 40,760 59 24,048 20 0
Other subsidiaries 39
Total value of subsidiaries 390
Value post 20% holding discount 312
Value of equity per share 1,035
Source: Company, RSec Research
6
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
EPS (Rs), based on fully diluted shares 54.3 35.1 45.4 55.1
Fully diluted shares outstanding (mn) 621 1,194 1,194 1,194
Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Equity capital 2,968 5,950 5,950 5,950
Reserves and surplus 264,244 298,924 343,130 398,656
Total equity 267,212 304,874 349,079 404,606
Deferred tax liability (net) 1,764 4,557 4,557 4,557
Total borrowings 39,002 32,142 32,142 32,142
Current liabilities 112,640 151,720 159,612 175,821
Total liabilities 420,618 493,293 545,390 617,125
7
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
Investing cashflow
Capital expenditure (19,517) (28,564) (30,000) (31,500)
Investments (33,823) (26,497) (23,266) (22,177)
Total investing cashflow (53,341) (55,062) (53,266) (53,677)
Financing cashflow
Share issuances 5 2,982 - -
Loans 4,503 (6,860) - -
Dividend (8,417) (10,252) (10,252) (10,252)
Interest Payment (2,285) (1,882) (1,996) (2,250)
Less: Others 2,520 1,494 - -
Total financing cashflow (3,675) (14,519) (12,248) (12,502)
Key Ratio
Y/E Mar FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Growth Ratios (%)
Net revenue 6.4 15.0 16.3 13.6
EBITDA 3.2 30.3 26.0 18.9
Adjusted net profit 1.1 24.1 29.4 21.3
Ratios (%)
Effective tax rate 25.1 30.1 32.1 32.0
EBITDA margin 13.1 14.8 16.0 16.8
Adjusted net income margin 8.2 8.8 9.8 10.5
ROaCE 12.3 13.1 15.1 16.1
ROaE 13.3 14.4 16.3 17.2
Total asset turnover ratio (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Inventory days 28 26 24 23
Debtor days 25 24 22 22
Creditor days 77 84 64 64
Per share numbers (Rs)
Diluted earnings 54.3 35.1 45.4 55.1
Free cash 50.3 44.3 36.1 48.4
Book value 430.2 255.2 292.3 338.7
Valuations (x)
P/E 11.3 17.5 13.5 11.1
EV/EBITDA 7.1 10.4 8.2 6.6
P/B 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.8
Note: Valuation ratios are post excluding subsidiary value of Rs 312/share from CMP., FY17 numbers are adjusted
for bonus issue.
8
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035
Rating History
Date Reco CMP TP
30-May-18 BUY 898 1,015 PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR PREVIOUS REPORTS
Rating Guides
Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
BUY >10%
HOLD -5% to 10%
REDUCE >-5%
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