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Institutional Equity Research

CMP* (Rs) 928


Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12
BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,150 Target Price: Rs1,035
Free Float (%) 78
1QFY19 Result Update | August 08, 2018 Shares O/S (mn) 1,243

Strong Quarter; New Launches to Drive Growth


Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has delivered a strong performance in 1QFY19 amid challenging Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth
environment pertaining to increased competitive intensity and spiraling input cost. Its
Absolute performance 0.3 7.3 32.6
(M&M+MVML) revenues grew by 23% YoY and 1% QoQ to RS133.6bn owing to healthy volume
Relative to Nifty (6.0) 0.5 17.8
growth. Volume grew by 19.4% YoY and 2% QoQ led by 19.2% YoY and 19.6% YoY growth in
Tractor and Automobile volume, respectively. EBIDTA grew by 47% YoY and 6% QoQ to Rs21.1bn,
while EBIDTA margin expanded by 261bps YoY and 67bps QoQ to 15.8%. From segmental Shareholding Pattern (%) Mar’18 Jun’18
perspective, EBIT margin rose by 250bps YoY to 20.9% in FES segment, which grew by 260bps Promoter 21.7 21.7
YoY to 9.4% in Auto segment. Its net profit – adjusted for extraordinary gain – surged by 64% Public 78.3 78.3
YoY and 11% QoQ to Rs12.3bn. Strong operating margin and healthy profitability is attributed to
favourable product-mix and cost-optimisation initiatives.
1 Year Stock Price Performance
Govt’s Rural Thrust to Boost Sales 950

Looking ahead, we expect M&M to sustain ongoing positive momentum on the back of 900

government’s strong rural thrust and expectation of normal monsoon. As M&M’s key product 850

portfolio continues to be rural-focused, it would continue enjoy the benefit of improving rural 800

economy, in our view. Though M&M’s present product line in Automotive segment is lean, it 750

plans to launch 3 UVs (S201, Y400 & U321) over next 8 months with the first product expected 700

to be launched in upcoming festive season. It also plans few launches in MPV, LCV and FES 650

segment over next 6-8 months. Moreover, M&M plans to focus on new technology and EV 600

Aug-18
Aug-17

Aug-17

platform. The Management plans to spend Rs150bn (Capex: Rs100bn & Investment: Rs50bn)
Sep-17

Oct-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Jun-18
May-18
Jan-18
Nov-17

Feb-18

Feb-18

Apr-18

Apr-18

Jul-18
Mar-18
in next 3 years. Major chunk of the capex would be spent towards product development,
technology and R&D including BS-VI technology. Maintaining its growth outlook for automotive Note: * CMP as on Aug 08, 2018

segment for FY19, the Management has upped tractor volume guidance to 12-14% (from 8-10%
earlier) in FY19. Focus on core products in UV space would help M&M to regain lost market share
to some extent, in our view.

Outlook & Valuation


Looking ahead, we expect M&M’s volume to clock 11% CAGR over FY18-FY20 on the back of strong
demand for PVs and new launches, while EBIDTA margin is expected to expand by 200bps to
16.8% during the same period. We marginally lower our volume and revenue estimates, while
factoring better operating margin, we increase our EPS estimates by 1%/5% for FY19E/FY20E.
Expecting meaningful improvement in rural demand, strong product pipeline and attractive
valuation, we reiterate our “BUY” recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTP-based
Target Price of Rs1,035 (from Rs1015 earlier), valuing M&M+MVML at 7.5x FY20E EBIDTA at
Rs723 and subsidiary at Rs312 post-20% discount to mkt cap.

Key Financials (Rs mn) (M&M+MVML) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E


Net Sales 413,779 475,774 553,329 628,648
EBITDA 54,042 70,434 88,749 105,491
EBITDA margin (%) 13.1 14.8 16.0 16.8
Adj. Net Profit 33,754 41,896 54,213 65,779
EPS (Rs.) 54.3 35.1 45.4 55.1
YoY growth (%) 1.1 (35.5) 29.4 21.3
ROE (%) 13.3 14.4 16.3 17.2
ROCE (%) 12.3 13.1 15.1 16.1
Research Analyst: Mitul Shah
PER (x) 11.3 17.5 13.5 11.1
Contact: 022 3303 4628
P/BV 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.8
Email: mitul.shah@relianceada.com
EV/ EBITDA 7.1 10.4 8.2 6.6
Source: Company, RSec Research, Note: Valuation ratios are post excluding subsidiary value of Rs 312/share from CMP.

1
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Conference Call – Key Takeaways


ff Segmental Outlook: Expecting the ongoing strong momentum in domestic tractor
segment to continue, the Management has increased its tractor volume guidance to
12-14% YoY (from 8-10% earlier) in FY19E. It expects the domestic PV industry to record
double-digit growth with strong outperformance from the UV segment with targeted
growth of >15%.

ff New Launches: M&M plans to launch three new products in UV space (S201, Y400 &
U321) over next 8months to arrest declining market shares. Apart from refreshing its
key models at regular interval, M&M also plans to launch few ICVs to fill the gap in CV
segment.

ff Price Hike & Cost-saving: M&M managed to pass on about the half of input cost
inflation during FY18, while the balance was absorbed with internal efficiency. Further,
a healthy expansion in operating margin indicates higher cost efficiency to absorb
cost inflation.M&M hiked vehicle prices by 1.5% and 1.2-1.3% in Automotive and FES
segment, respectively.

ff Capex & Investment: The Management plans to spend Rs150bn (Capex: Rs100bn
& Investment: Rs50bn) in next 3 years. It indicated that the major chunk of the capex
would be spent towards product development, technology and R&D including BS-VI
technology.

Volume & Market Share


ff M&M’s total volume increased by 19% YoY and 2% QoQ to 2,40,885 units in 1QFY19.

ff Automotive Volume: Its automotive volume grew by 19.6% YoY (-15% QoQ) to 1,40,101
units. Domestic volume grew by 16% YoY,while exports volume more than doubled
(+101% YoY). Its UV volume rose by 6% YoY, MPV volume surged by 59% YoY, while LCV
segment volume rose by 20% YoY. 3W volume increased by 29% YoY. M&M’s market
share in UV segment declined by 400bps YoY to 23.9%, which rose by 150bps YoY to
7.7% in MPV segment. Market share fell by 920bps YoY and 120bps YoY to 33.9% and
8% in LCV and 3W segment, respectively.

ff FES Volume: Tractor volume grew by a strong 19% YoY to 100,784 units, with domestic
volume growing by 20% YoY to 97,360 units and exports rising by 16% YoY to 3,593
units. Its segmental market share stood at 43.7% in 1QFY19.

Key Risks
ff Slowdown in domestic economy and lower-than-estimated rural growth owing to
abnormal monsoon.

ff Change in government’s regulation.

ff Major global slowdown/geo-political issues to impact export sales.

ff Increased competitive intensity.

ff Sharp rise in input cost and limited ability to pass on the same.

2
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Exhibit 1: M&M Standalone


Y/E March (Rs mn) 1Q FY19 1Q FY18 YoY (%) Q4 FY18 QoQ (%)
Sales Volume
Total Automotive 140,101 117,179 19.6 165,166 -15.2

Tractors 100,784 84,533 19.2 70,635 42.7


Total Volume 240,885 201,712 19.4 235,801 2.2
Total Revenue 135,199 116,163 16.4 133,079 1.6
Less:
Net Raw Material consumed 95,566 84,574 13.0 92,364 3.5
Mfg & Sales Exp. 13,401 12,054 11.2 16,110 -16.8
Personnel 7,516 7,067 6.4 7,063 6.4
Total Expenditure 116,483 103,695 12.3 115,537 0.8
EBIDTA 18,716 12,468 50.1 17,542 6.7
Less: Depreciation 3,930 3,476 13.1 3,993 -1.6
EBIT 14,787 8,993 64.4 13,549 9.1
Less: Interest 327 317 3.2 330 -0.8
Add: Other income 2,650 2,048 29.4 1,715 54.5
Less: Extraordinary Expense (net) -209 0 NA -479 NA
Profit Before Tax 17,318 10,723 61.5 15,412 12.4
Profit Before Tax Excluding Ext Ordinary 17,109 10,723 59.6 14,934 14.6
Less: Total Tax 5,108 3,228 58.2 4,821 6.0
Profit After Tax 12,210 7,495 62.9 10,591 15.3
Adj. PAT 12,062 7,495 60.9 10,262 17.5
Reported EPS (Rs.) 10.2 6.3 62.9 8.9 15.2
Adj. EPS (Rs.) 10.1 6.3 60.9 8.6 17.5
Margin Analysis (%) "Change "Change
In BPS" In BPS"
EBIDTA Margin 13.8 10.7 311 13.2 66
Adj. NPM 8.9 6.5 247 7.7 121
Effective Tax Rate 29.9 30.1 (25) 32.3 (243)
Cost Analysis
RM/Net Sales 70.7 72.8 (212) 69.4 128
Adv.& Sales Promotion Expenses./Net Sales 9.9 10.4 (46) 12.1 (219)
Personnel/Net Sales 5.6 6.1 (52) 5.3 25
Source: Company, RSec Research; Note: NA - Not Applicable

3
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Exhibit 2: M&M+MVML
YE March (Rs. mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%)
Total Revenue 133,577 108,775 22.8 131,888 1.3
Less:

Net Raw Material consumed 90,036 73,784 22.0 87,247 3.2


Mfg & Sales Exp. 14,061 12,707 10.7 16,808 -16.3
Personnel 8,380 7,943 5.5 7,882 6.3
Total Expenditure 112,476 94,434 19.1 111,938 0.5
EBIDTA 21,101 14,341 47.1 19,950 5.8
Less: Depreciation 4,295 3,820 12.4 4,390 -2.2
EBIT 16,806 10,522 59.7 15,560 8.0
Less: Interest 431 509 -15.3 499 -13.6
Add: Other income 1,930 1,283 50.4 1,659 16.3
Less: Extraordinary Expense (net) -245 0 NA -479 NA
Profit Before Tax 18,550 11,296 64.2 17,199 7.9
Profit Before Tax Excl. Ext Ordinary 18,305 11,296 62.0 16,720 9.5
Less: Total Tax 5,978 3,778 58.2 5,650 5.8
Profit After Tax 12,572 7,518 67.2 11,549 8.9
Adj. PAT 12,327 7,518 64.0 11,070 11.4
Reported EPS (Rs.) 10.5 6.3 67.2 9.7 8.9
Adj. EPS (Rs.) 10.3 6.3 64.0 9.3 11.4
Margin Analysis (%) "Change "Change
In BPS" In BPS"
EBIDTA Margin 15.8 13.2 261 15.1 67
Adj. NPM 9.2 6.9 232 8.4 83
Effective Tax Rate 32.7 33.4 (79) 33.8 (113)
Cost Analysis
RM/Net Sales 67.4 67.8 (43) 66.2 125

Adv.& Sales Promotion Exp./Net Sales 10.5 11.7 (115) 12.7 (222)
Personnel/Net Sales 6.3 7.3 (103) 6.0 30
Source: Company, RSec Research; Note: NA - Not Applicable

Exhibit 3: Revised vs. Old Estimates


FY19E FY20E
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) New Old % change New Old % change
Automotive 619,998 649,068 (4.5) 678,536 745,106 (8.9)
Tractor 363,608 355,857 2.2 390,964 385,569 1.4
Total Volume (units) 983,606 1,004,925 (2.1) 1,069,500 1,130,676 (5.4)
Net revenues 553,329 574,092 (3.6) 628,648 670,127 (6.2)
EBIDTA 88,749 87,989 0.9 105,491 103,320 2.1
EBIDTA margin (%) 16.0 15.3 71 bps 16.8 15.4 136 bps
Adj. Net Profit 54,213 53,752 0.9 65,779 62,684 4.9
EPS (Rs.) 45.4 45.0 0.9 55.1 52.5 4.9
Source: RSec Research

4
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Volume & Market Share Analysis


Exhibit 4: Volume Analysis
Units 1Q FY19 1Q FY18 YoY (%) Q4 FY18 QoQ (%)
Domestic Volumes
PCs 447 239 87.0 384 16.4
Utility Vehicles 56,074 53,082 5.6 67,805 (17.3)
MPV 4,258 2,674 59.2 4,358 (2.3)
Domestic PV 60,779 55,995 8.5 72,547 (16.2)
M&HCV 3,645 1,889 93.0 3,732 (2.3)
LCV 53,295 44,564 19.6 63,709 (16.3)
Domestic CV 56,940 46,453 22.6 67,441 (15.6)
3-Wheelers 13,005 10,055 29.3 16,484 (21.1)
Domestic Automobile Volume 130,724 112,503 16.2 156,472 (16.5)
Automobile Exports 9,377 4,676 100.5 8,694 7.9
Total Automobile Volume 140,101 117,179 19.6 165,166 (15.2)

Domestic Tractors 97,360 81,178 19.9 66,885 45.6


Tractor Exports 3,424 3,355 2.1 3,750 (8.7)
Total Tractor Volume 100,784 84,533 19.2 70,635 42.7

Overall Volume 240,885 201,712 19.4 235,801 2.2


Source: Company, RSec Research; SIAM

Exhibit 5: Domestic Market Share Trend - PV Exhibit 6: Domestic Market Share Trend - CV
(%) (%) (%) (%)
35 0.3 48.0 5.0
30
0.2 4.0
25 44.0
20 0.2 3.0
40.0
15 0.1 2.0
10
0.1 36.0
5 1.0

0 - 32.0 -
1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

Utility Vehicles MPV PCs LCV M&HCV

Source: Company, SIAM, RSec Research

Exhibit 7: Domestic Market Share Trend - 3-wheelers Exhibit 8: Domestic Market Share Trend - Tractors
(%) (%)
46.0
12.0

10.5 44.0

9.0 42.0

7.5 40.0

6.0
38.0
1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

3-Wheelers
Farm Equipment (Tractor)

Source: Company, SIAM, RSec Research Source: Company

5
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Exhibit 9: Revenue Contribution Exhibit 10: Revenue & EBITDA Trend

100% (Rs.mn)

23 120,000
32 28 35 35 32 28
80% 35 37
100,000

60% 80,000

60,000
40% 73
65 68 62 62 64 68
61 60 40,000
20%
20,000

0% -
1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19

1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17
Automotive Farm Equipment Revenue (LHS) EBIDTA (LHS)

Source: Company, RSec Research

Exhibit 11: EBITDA & EBITDA Margin Trend Exhibit 12: Segmental EBIT Margin Trend
(Rs) (%) (Rs mn) (%)
100,000 20.0 100,000 25.0

80,000 16.0 80,000 20.0

60,000 12.0 60,000 15.0

40,000 10.0
40,000 8.0
20,000 5.0
20,000 4.0
- -
- -
1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17
1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19
1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

Automotive (LHS) Farm Equipment (LHS)


EBIDTA (LHS) EBIDTA (%) Automotive (%) Farm Equipment (%)

Source: Company, RSec Research

SOTP Valuation
We assign an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs1,035 (valuing M&M+MVML at 7.5x FY20E EBIDTA at Rs723 and subsidiary at Rs312 post-20% discount
to mkt. cap.)

Exhibit 13: M&M’s SOTP Valuation


Subsidiaries Estimated Value M&M's Stake M&M’s Value M&M's Holding Remark
(Rs mn) (%) (Rs mn) Rs/share
Enterprise value -M&M+MVML 791,182 663 7.5x FY20E EV/EBITDA
Less: net debt (71,547) (60)
Value of M&M+MVML 862,729 723

Value of subsidiaries
Tech Mahindra 646,450 26.1 168,723 141 Current market cap
M&M Financial Services 303,320 51.2 155,300 130 Current market cap
Mahindra Lifespace 25,860 51.1 13,214 11 Current market cap
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts 38,190 75 28,643 24 Current market cap
Ssangyong Motors 39,956 72.9 29,128 24 Current market cap
Mahindra Logistics 40,760 59 24,048 20 0
Other subsidiaries 39
Total value of subsidiaries 390
Value post 20% holding discount 312
Value of equity per share 1,035
Source: Company, RSec Research
6
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Profit & Loss Statement


Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net revenue 413,779 475,774 553,329 628,648
Expenditure 359,737 405,339 464,580 523,157
Raw Materials 280,192 316,280 371,269 421,194
Employee Expenses 29,920 31,773 34,909 39,098
Other expenditure 49,625 57,286 58,402 62,865
EBITDA 54,042 70,434 88,749 105,491
Depreciation and amortization expense 16,745 16,254 17,624 19,067
EBIT 37,297 54,181 71,125 86,424
Non-operating income 12,064 9,517 10,772 12,559
Interest Exp 2,426 1,882 1,996 2,250
Adjusted pre-tax profit 46,935 61,816 79,901 96,734
Less: Extraordinary Exp (5,485) (4,336) (245) -
Reported pre-tax profit 52,420 66,152 80,146 96,734
Less: taxes 13,181 19,920 25,688 30,955
Reported net profit 39,239 46,232 54,458 65,779
Adjusted net profit for shareholders 33,754 41,896 54,213 65,779

EPS (Rs), based on fully diluted shares 54.3 35.1 45.4 55.1
Fully diluted shares outstanding (mn) 621 1,194 1,194 1,194

Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Equity capital 2,968 5,950 5,950 5,950
Reserves and surplus 264,244 298,924 343,130 398,656
Total equity 267,212 304,874 349,079 404,606
Deferred tax liability (net) 1,764 4,557 4,557 4,557
Total borrowings 39,002 32,142 32,142 32,142
Current liabilities 112,640 151,720 159,612 175,821
Total liabilities 420,618 493,293 545,390 617,125

Cash and cash equivalents 17,333 29,242 36,800 59,944


Inventory 32,285 33,271 35,639 40,133
Trade receivables 28,758 30,984 33,351 37,891
Other current assets 56,981 75,728 79,889 84,837
Total current assets 135,357 169,224 185,679 222,804
Total fixed assets 117,759 130,070 142,446 154,879
Total Investments 167,502 193,999 217,265 239,442
Total assets 420,618 493,293 545,390 617,125

7
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Cash Flow Statement


Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Operating cashflow
Pre-tax income 53,597 66,152 80,146 96,734
Add: depreciation and amortization 14,721 16,254 17,624 19,067
Add: interest expense (net) 2,285 1,882 1,996 2,250
Less: taxes paid (12,370) (19,920) (25,688) (30,955)
Add: working capital changes (7,495) 17,122 (1,005) 2,228
Total operating cashflow 50,738 81,490 73,072 89,323

Investing cashflow
Capital expenditure (19,517) (28,564) (30,000) (31,500)
Investments (33,823) (26,497) (23,266) (22,177)
Total investing cashflow (53,341) (55,062) (53,266) (53,677)

Financing cashflow
Share issuances 5 2,982 - -
Loans 4,503 (6,860) - -
Dividend (8,417) (10,252) (10,252) (10,252)
Interest Payment (2,285) (1,882) (1,996) (2,250)
Less: Others 2,520 1,494 - -
Total financing cashflow (3,675) (14,519) (12,248) (12,502)

Net change in cash (6,278) 11,909 7,558 23,144


Opening cash 23,610 17,332 29,241 36,800
Closing cash 17,332 29,241 36,800 59,944

Key Ratio
Y/E Mar FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Growth Ratios (%)
Net revenue 6.4 15.0 16.3 13.6
EBITDA 3.2 30.3 26.0 18.9
Adjusted net profit 1.1 24.1 29.4 21.3
Ratios (%)
Effective tax rate 25.1 30.1 32.1 32.0
EBITDA margin 13.1 14.8 16.0 16.8
Adjusted net income margin 8.2 8.8 9.8 10.5
ROaCE 12.3 13.1 15.1 16.1
ROaE 13.3 14.4 16.3 17.2
Total asset turnover ratio (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Inventory days 28 26 24 23
Debtor days 25 24 22 22
Creditor days 77 84 64 64
Per share numbers (Rs)
Diluted earnings 54.3 35.1 45.4 55.1
Free cash 50.3 44.3 36.1 48.4
Book value 430.2 255.2 292.3 338.7
Valuations (x)
P/E 11.3 17.5 13.5 11.1
EV/EBITDA 7.1 10.4 8.2 6.6
P/B 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.8
Note: Valuation ratios are post excluding subsidiary value of Rs 312/share from CMP., FY17 numbers are adjusted
for bonus issue.
8
Institutional Equity Research
CMP* (Rs) 928
Mahindra & Mahindra Upside/ (Downside) (%) 12 BUY
Bloomberg Ticker MM IN
Automobile | India Target Price: Rs1,035

Rating History
Date Reco CMP TP
30-May-18 BUY 898 1,015 PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR PREVIOUS REPORTS

Rating Guides
Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months
BUY >10%
HOLD -5% to 10%
REDUCE >-5%

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Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of.
RSL CIN: U65990MH2005PLC154052. SEBI registration no. ( Stock Brokers: NSE - INB / INF / INE 231234833; BSE - INB / INF / INE 011234839, Depository Participants: CDSL IN-DP-257-2016 IN-DP-
NSDL-363-2013, Research Analyst: INH000002384); AMFI ARN No.29889.

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