BSE3311 Piped and Gas Services

Assume the appliance operations are binomially distributed:

M! M!
b  N ; M , p   M CN p N 1  p  p N 1  p 
M N M N
  pN qM N
N ! M  N  ! N ! M  N !
where M = number of identical appliances
N = number of appliances in operation out of M
t
p = probability of discharge = probability of N operating out of M =
T
q = 1  p = probability of appliance not operating
M CN = binomial coefficient

M
Failure rate,   Pr  R  N   b  R  1; M , p   b  R  2; M , p     b  M ; M , p    b  N; M , p
N  R 1
for R < M

Using Sterling’s/Stirling’s formula:

n ! ~ 2 n n n e  n

The binomial coefficient can then be approximated as:

M! 2 M M M e  M 1 M MM
   N
N ! M  N ! 2 N N N e  N  2  M  N  M  N 
M  N  M  N 
e 2 N  M  N  N  M  N M  N
M N
M N M M N
N
1 M 1 M M   M 
  N     
2 N  M  N  N  M  N M  N 2 N M  N   N   M  N 
N M N
M! 1 M  Mp   Mq 
 b N; M , p  pN qM N     
N ! M  N  ! 2 N M  N   N   M  N 

Now we can find that:

 1 M
N
 Mp   Mq 
M N

log e b  N ; M , p   log e      
 2 N M  N   N   M  N  
1 1  M   Mp   Mq 
  log e 2  log e    N log e     M  N  log e  
2 2  N  M  N    N  M N 
1 1  N M  N   N  M N 
  log e 2  log e    N log e     M  N  log e  
2 2  M   Mp   Mq 

Put N  Mp  x
M  N  M   Mp  x   M 1  p   x  Mq  x

Hence we obtain:
1 1   Mp  x  Mq  x    Mp  x   Mq  x 
log e b  N ; M , p    log e 2  log e     Mp  x  log e     Mq  x  log e  
2 2  M   Mp   Mq 
1 1   x  x   x   x 
  log e 2  log e  Mpq  1   1      Mp  x  log e 1     Mq  x  log e 1  
2 2   Mp  Mq   Mp   Mq 
1 1  x   x   x 
  log e 2   log e  Mpq   log e 1    log e 1      Mp  x  log e 1  
2 2  Mp   Mq    Mp 
 x 
  Mq  x  log e  1  
 Mq 

Using Taylor’s series of log e 1  x  :

x 2 x3 x 4
log e 1  x   x     when 1  x  1
2 3 4

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BSE3311 Piped and Gas Services
We get
1 1   x 1  x 2   x 1  x 2  
log e b  N ; M , p    log e 2  log e  Mpq                 
2 2
  Mp 2  Mp    Mq 2  Mq   
 x 1  x 2   x 1  x 2 
  Mp  x          Mq  x       
 Mp 2  Mp    Mq 2  Mq  
1 1  x x   x2 x2   x x2 
  log e 2   log e  Mpq     
  2 2
    Mp  x    2 2 
2 2  Mp Mq   2M p 2M 2 q 2    Mp 2 M p 
 x x2 
  Mq  x    2 2 
 Mq 2 M q 
1 x q  p x  p  q   
2 2 2
1 x2 x2   x2 x2 
  log e 2   log e  Mpq       x   
  x   
2 2 Mpq 2M 2 p 2 q 2   2 Mp Mp   2Mq Mq 
 
 x  q  p  x  p  2 pq  q   2 pq   
2 2 2
1 1 x2   x2 
  log e 2  log e  Mpq    
  x  
  x  
2 2 Mpq 2M 2 p 2 q 2   2Mp   2Mq 

 
x  q  p  x  p  q   2 pq   x 2  1 1 
2 2
1 1
  log e 2  log e  Mpq       
2 2 Mpq 2M 2 p 2 q 2  2M  p q 
 
1 1 x  q  p  x 2 1  2 pq    p  q  x 2
  log e 2  log e  Mpq    
2 2  Mpq 2 M 2 p 2 q 2  2 Mpq
1 1 x  q  p  x 2 1  2 pq  x2
  log e 2  log e  Mpq    
2 2 2 Mpq 4M 2 p 2 q 2 2Mpq
1 1  x 2 x  q  p  x 2 1  2 pq  
  log e  2 Mpq      
2 2M  pq pq 2 Mp 2 q 2 
1 1  x2 x 1  2 p  
  log e  2 Mp 1  p       
2 2 M  p 1  p  p 1  p  

Whence approximately:
 x2 x 1 2 p  
 x 2  1  2 p  x 
1
   
1  p 1 p  p 1 p   1
b  N ; M , p   b  Mp  x; M , p   e  exp  
2M

2 Mp 1  p  2 Mp 1  p   2 Mp 1  p  
In simplified form:
x2
1 
1  x2 
b  N ; M , p   b  Mp  x; M , p   e 2 Mp 1 p 
 exp   
2 Mp 1  p  2 Mp 1  p   2 Mp 1  p  

Thus the probability that the number of draw-off points in operation will lie in the range  Mp  s  and  Mp  s  :
Mp  s s
1  x 2  1  2 p  x 
Pr  Mp  s  N  Mp  s    b  N; M , p   exp   
N  Mp  s x  s 2 Mp 1  p   2Mp 1  p  

Using Taylor’s series:

x 2 x3
e  x  exp   x   1  x   
2! 3!
We find:
s  x 2  1  2 p  x  s  1  2 p  x   x2 
 exp   
   exp  
  x  s   
  exp  
   

 
x  s  2 Mp 1 p 2 Mp 1 p  2 Mp 1 p
s  1  2 p  x   x2 
  1    exp   
 2 Mp 1  p 
x  s    2 Mp 1  p  

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Since the summation extents equally over s and  s , the second term cancel out and the probability can be written as:
Mp  s s
1  x2 
Pr  Mp  s  N  Mp  s    b N; M , p   exp   
N  Mp  s x  s 2 Mp 1  p   2 Mp 1  p  

x
Writing y 
2 Mp 1  p 
Since x increases by unity, we have:
x 1
y  y 
2Mp 1  p 
y 1
Thus, 
 2 Mp 1  p 

Then summation takes the form:

s
2 Mp 1 p 
  2
y
exp   y 2 
s
1 x
Pr  Mp  s  N  Mp  s   
x  s 2 Mp 1  p 
exp   
 2Mp 1  p  
 s 
y
2 Mp 1 p 

s
2 Mp 1 p  s s
y 1 2

2 Mp 1 p  2 Mp 1 p 
 e y   e  y dy 
 
e  y dy
2 2 2

s
y
s   2 Mp 1 p 
0

2 Mp 1 p 

This expresses the probability in terms of error function:

 s 
Pr  Mp  s  N  Mp  s   erf  
 2 Mp 1  p  
 
2 x t2
where erf  x    e dt
 0

Finally, we arrive:
Mp  s s  s 
Pr  Mp  s  N  Mp  s   
N  Mp  s
b N; M , p  
x  s
b  Mp  x; M , p   erf  
 2 Mp 1  p  
 

If the ‘acceptable’ failure rate set at %, the number of appliances in operation out of M is:
N  Mp  s  Mp  k 2 Mp 1  p 
where
 s 
  Pr  Mp  s  N   1  Pr  N  Mp  s   1  Pr  Mp  s  N  Mp  s   1  erf    1  erf  k 
 2 Mp 1  p  
 
 s 
or erf  k   erf    1 
 2 Mp 1  p  
 

For the ‘acceptable’ failure rate set at 1%, and k  1.8225 .

Approximation by normal distribution:
Standard deviation:   Mp 1  p 
N  Mp  1.8 2Mp 1  p   Mp  2.55

Design flow rate:

Q  Nq f
where qf = flow rate of identical appliance

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