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The village of Ilulissat in western Greenland is surrounded by icebergs that have calved from the Jakobshavn Glacier.
T
he ice sheets of Greenland and reach US$50 trillion a year. Sea walls and global warming. In our view, this is plausible
Antarctica will contribute more to flood defences cost tens of billions of dollars because about 90% of ice flowing to the sea
sea-level rise this century than any a year to construct and maintain2. from the Antarctic ice sheet3,4, and about half
other source. By mid-century, a 2 °C increase At this price, geoengineering is competi- of that lost from Greenland travels in narrow,
is predicted1 to swell the global oceans by tive. For example, building an artificial island fast ice streams. These streams measure tens
around 20 centimetres, on average. By 2100, to host Hong Kong’s international airport, of kilometres or less across. Fast glaciers slide
most large coastal cities will face sea levels that which added 1% to the city’s land area, cost on a film of water or wet sediment5. Stemming
are more than a metre higher than currently. more than $20 billion. China’s Three Gorges the largest flows would allow the ice sheets
If nothing is done, 0.5–5% of the world’s Dam, which spans the Yangtze River to con- to thicken, slowing or even reversing their
population will be flooded each year after trol floods and generate power, is thought to contribution to sea-level rise.
2100 (ref. 2). For example, a 0.5-metre rise have cost about $33 billion. Geoengineering of glaciers has received
in Guangzhou, China, would displace more We think that geoengineering of glaciers on little attention in journals. Most people
than 1 million people; a 2-metre rise would a similar scale could delay much of Greenland assume that it is unfeasible and environ-
affect more than 2 million1. Without coastal and Antarctica’s grounded ice from reaching mentally undesirable. We disagree. We
protection, the global cost of damages could the sea for centuries, buying time to address understand the hesitancy to interfere with
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COMMENT
glaciers — as glaciologists, we know the construction of the berm and by the loss of warmer waters from entering.
pristine beauty of these places. But we have sediment once the glacier was slowed. Whether such engineering feats would
also stood on ice shelves that are now open Building such a berm would tell us whether successfully delay sea-level rise, and for how
ocean. If the world does nothing, ice sheets glacial geoengineering is feasible, or if there long, requires a better understanding of
will keep shrinking and the losses will accel- would be unanticipated consequences. But many factors. These include how the ocean
erate. Even if greenhouse-gas emissions are the project would have only a small impact on circulates below ice shelves; how floating
slashed, which looks unlikely, it would take 2100 global sea levels, given that Greenland’s ice fractures and calves icebergs; and how
decades for the climate to stabilize. contribution is likely to be just 10–20 centi- glaciers slide and erode at their bases. A
Is allowing a ‘pristine’ glacier to waste away metres1. Antarctica will be the largest contrib- thorough study would be needed to deter-
worth forcing one million people from their utor, and geoengineering there will require mine the stresses that pinned ice shelves can
homes? Ten million? One hundred million? larger and more challenging projects. sustain before they fracture. Models of ice
Should we spend vast sums to wall off all the dynamics should determine the most effec-
world’s coasts, or can we address the problem 2. SUPPORT ICE SHELVES tive locations for pinning.
at its source? Geoengineering is a political Where Antarctica’s ice sheets reach the sea, ice Material could be shipped to Antarctica
and societal choice, because people’s reactions flows out as floating shelves. Pinned by rocks from elsewhere in the world, or dredged or
depend on how the issue is framed. Buttress- and islands, these platforms hold back the quarried locally. But it would be difficult in
ing of glaciers needs a serious look. It should glaciers and limit how much ice reaches the practice for engineers to work around the ice
have fewer global environmental impacts sea. As the air and ocean around Antarctica shelves, which grow and shrink as the glaciers,
than other proposals being discussed for warm, some ice shelves are becoming thinner, sheets and conditions fluctuate. Sea ice would
reducing sea-level rise, such as injecting aero- particularly those fringing the Amundsen also get in the way. Technologies might need to
sols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight Sea. In 2002, scientists were shocked at the be developed to operate beneath floating ice.
and cool the planet. collapse of 3,200 square kilometres of the Major disturbances to local ecosystems would
To stimulate discussion, we explore three Larsen B ice shelf, which is now only 30% of be expected and would require thorough
ways to delay the loss of ice sheets. the size it was during the 1980s7. Half a dozen assessment before and after pinning.
other shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula
1. BLOCK WARM WATER have shattered in the past 30 years. 3. DRY SUBGLACIAL STREAMS
The Jakobshavn glacier in western Greenland Sheer cliffs are left behind when an ice Fast-sliding ice streams supply 90% of ice
is one of the fastest-moving ice masses on sheet collapses. These crumble, accelerating entering the sea. As the ice slides over the gla-
Earth. It contributes more to sea-level rise the glacier’s retreat8. The West Antarctic ice cier bed, frictional heat generates about 90%
than any other glacier in the Northern sheet is especially vulnerable because its bed of the water at the base of the ice streams5.
Hemisphere. Ice loss from Jakobshavn rock lies below sea level and is deeper inland9. This water acts as a lubricant, speeding up the
explains around 4% of twentieth-century sea- Warm ocean currents in the Amundsen Sea flow, which in turn generates more heat, and
level rise, or about 0.06 millimetres per year6. are melting the bottoms of floating parts of creates more water and slippage.
Jakobshavn is retreating at its front. the glaciers, making the sheets more unstable. Glaciers in Greenland and at lower
Relatively warm water from the Atlantic is The Pine Island3 and Thwaites4 glaciers latitudes are relatively wet because their sur-
flowing over a shallow sill (300 metres deep) in West Antarctica are the largest potential faces melt in summer, and rivers flow beneath
and eating away at the glacier’s base. Making sources of sea-level them. In Antarctica, by contrast, there is little
the sill shallower would reduce the volume of rise over the next “Scientists were seasonal melting and much less water below
warm water and slow the melting. More sea two centuries. Both shocked at the the ice sheet. For example, the base of Pine
ice would form. Icebergs would lodge on the glaciers are losing collapse of the Island Glacier releases about 50 cubic metres
sill and prop up the glacier. height and flow- Larsen B ice of water per second, which is only about
A 100-metre-high wall with sloping sides of ing more quickly shelf.” 10 millimetres per year over the catchment
15–45° could be built across the 5-kilometre than two decades area5. Removing this thin layer of water will
fjord in front of Jakobshavn glacier by dredg- ago. Pine Island Glacier reached a flow slow the glacier, reducing frictional heating.
ing around 0.1 cubic kilometres of gravel rate of about 4 kilometres per year in 2009, The glacier will stall and its ice will thicken.
and sand from Greenland’s continental shelf compared with 2.5 kilometres per year in It is difficult to access the glacier’s bed
(see ‘Glacial geoengineering’). This artificial 1996 (ref. 10). Models predict that, by 2150, beneath one kilometre of ice, but there are
embankment, or berm, could be clad in con- these two glaciers might disgorge ice ten precedents. The IceCube Neutrino Obser-
crete to stop it being eroded. The scale of the times faster than current rates, contributing vatory at the South Pole has used jets of
berm would be comparable with large civil- 4 centimetres a year to global sea-level rise8. hot water to drill 60 holes to depths of
engineering projects. For example, ten times One solution is to artificially pin the 1,500–2,500 metres in the ice sheet. At Enga-
more material — 1 cubic kilometre — was ice shelves in front of the two glaciers by breen, Norway, a network of 5-metre-wide
excavated to build the Suez Canal. Hong constructing berms and islands, extended tunnels in the bedrock feeds 30–40 cubic
Kong’s airport required around 0.3 cubic from outcrops or built on the sea floor. For metres of meltwater each second from the
kilometres of landfill. The Three Gorges Dam example, the shelf buttressing Pine Island base of a glacier to the Svartisen hydropower
used 0.028 cubic kilometres of cast concrete. Glacier could be jammed by a berm located plant. On the basis of current similar pro-
Construction would be arduous and on Jenkins Ridge, a high point on the sea jects, we estimate that the cost of drilling the
potentially hazardous in cold waters littered bed below the glacier. We estimate that this tunnels through rock beneath the Engabreen
with icebergs. The reactions of local people would require around 6 cubic kilometres of glacier was around $500 million.
would be mixed: although the project would material, or 60 times more than would be Deeper subglacial water in Antarctica
create employment, large numbers of outside needed to plug the Jakobshavn fjord. Rela- is under pressure and should drain to the
workers would have to be brought in. Ecol- tively small artificial islands in other places ocean without pumping. It could also be
ogy, fisheries and tourism could be affected. — reaching up 300 metres from the sea bed frozen by circulating cooled brines beneath
Glacier sediments supply nutrients for plank- — would require 0.1 cubic kilometres of the 10-metre-thick layer of sediment scoured
ton growth, so marine ecosystems would be material each. A large berm (10–50 cubic at the glacier’s base. The Pine Island Glacier
affected by increased turbulence during kilometres) in the open bay could prevent might be reached through the nearby volcanic
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COMMENT
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