Where there is little data:

HYDROLOGICAL VARIABLES
&
RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING

Alberto Viglione
Vienna University of Technology
viglione@hydro.tuwien.ac.at

Where there is little data - Course November 2014

 INTRODUCTION

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Runoff = how much water flows at the river cross-section

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Catchment = fundamental landscape unit for cycling of water

..where processes related to

surface water, groundwater,
evaporation, biology, etc.
integrate to transform
precipitation to runoff.
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 Runoff Prediction (examples)
• What will be the runoff in 6 hours from now? What
will it be tomorrow or next week/month? – Runoff
Forecast

• What will be the runoff characteristics in 50 years

from now? – Future Projections

• What is the probability that a flood (or a low flow)

occurs? – Frequency Analysis of Extremes

• What are the runoff characteristics in a river

section where no runoff measurements are
available? – Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins
– PUB

Where there is little data - Course November 2014

 Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins
1.Introduction
2.A synthesis framework
3.A data acquisition framework
4.Process realism: flow paths and
storage
5-10. Prediction of
- Annual runoff
- Seasonal runoff
- Flow duration curves
- Low flows
- Floods
- Hydrographs
11. Case studies (19 of them)
12. Synthesis
13. Recommendations

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Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Concept of similarity as the

intellectual core of transferring
information from gauged to
ungauged catchments

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 Part 1:
HYDROLOGICAL VARIABLES

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 Annual runoff

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 Long term water balance: Budyko

from http://www.uwo.ca/biology/faculty/creed/research/techniques.html

from http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n3/fig_tab/nclimate1719_F3.html

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 Seasonal runoff

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 Seasonality

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 Flow Duration Curve

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 Flow Duration Curve

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 Low flows

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 Floods

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 Hydrographs

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 Hydrographs

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 Comparative hydrology

Lech at Steeg (Alpine) Raab at Feldbach (Low land)

Area 248 km² Area 689 km²
Annual precip. 1520 mm Annual precip. 846 mm

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 Comparative hydrology

Learning from
similarities and
differences of
catchments around
the world

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 Part 1:
Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R
1) Read the data (daily precipitation,
temperature, potential
evaporation and runoff) for the
Italian catchments.
2) Calculate the hydrologic
signatures (runoff but also
rainfall...)

Question: What are the most

similar catchments? Is the similarity
explanable?

Where there is little data - Course November 2014

 Exercise with R
Group Catchment Student Names
RENO
1 Alberto Viglione, ...
a Casalecchio (id1)
SAMOGGIA
2
a Calcara (id5)
FOGLIA
3
a Montecchio (id13)
CANDIGLIANO
4
a Acqualagna (id14)
METAURO
5
a Bellaguardia (id15)
CHIENTI
6
a Ponte Giove (id17)
CHIENTI
7
a Pieve Torina (id18)
TENNA
8
a Amandola (id19)
TRONTO
9
a Tolignano (id22)

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R
Group Catchment Findings and comparisons
The catchment is situated..., has an area of..., and is predominantly mountainous. We
have ... years of daily data available. The mean annual values are P=... mm/yr, ET=...
RENO
1 mm/yr and Q=... mm/yr. Compared to the other catchments... The runoff seasonality
a Casalecchio (id1) is... and is in phase with the rainfall seasonality. Compared to the other catchments...
The FDC steeper/less steap...

SAMOGGIA
2 ...
a Calcara (id5)
FOGLIA
3
a Montecchio (id13)
CANDIGLIANO
4
a Acqualagna (id14)
METAURO
5
a Bellaguardia (id15)
CHIENTI
6
a Ponte Giove (id17)
CHIENTI
7
a Pieve Torina (id18)
TENNA
8
a Amandola (id19)
TRONTO
9
a Tolignano (id22)

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 Exercise with R

Where are our catchments?

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 Exercise with R

Fill out the boxes

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 Exercise with R

Summarise the
findings on the map

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 Part 2:
RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING

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 Methods/models for PUB
Statistical vs. Process-based

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 Methods/models for PUB

M o d e l u n a b le
to e x p lo it d a ta

Id e n tifia b ility
p ro b le m s

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 Conceptual models

P - E - Q = d/dt(SP + SM + UZ + LZ + lakes)

where:
P = precipitation
E = evaporation
Q = runoff
SP = snow pack
SM = soil moisture
UZ = upper soil reservoir
LZ =lower groundwater zone
lakes = lake volume

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 HBV model
(Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model)
S. Bergström (SMHI)
• Used worlwide (more than 30 countries) for
catchments of 1 to >100000km²
• Design (e.g. storage dimensioning in Sweden)
• Flood forecasting (e.g. Kamp, Austrian Danube
tributaries)
• Computation of water balance (e.g. Austria, Africa,
Central America, …)
• Use in Practice (Ing.-Offices)
• Use in Research (Model comparison, Parameter
uncertainty and sensitivity, ...)

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 HBV model
Precipitation
Temperature Pot. Evaporation

1. Snow module Evaporation

2. Soil moisture module

Surface runoff Q1

3. Response
Upper soil runoff Q2
module

Lower soil runoff Q3

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 Snowmelt module
Input:
precipitation and temperature

5 parameters:
SCF (mm/d)
Tr,Ts,Tm(°C)
DDF (mm/°C*d)

Output:
Snow Precipitation (PS),
Snowmelt (Pm), SWE

snowmelt:
degree day factor

snow water equivalent:

snow correction factor

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 Soil moisture module
Soil moisture
Rain+Melt

Part of precip that becomes runoff

Input:
Pot. Evaporation

2 Parameter:
FC: max. storage capacity of
the catchment
beta: non-linearity parameter

Output:
Separation between direct
runoff and soil storage

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 Soil moisture module
Actual evaporation Input:
Pot. Evaporation

2 Parameter:
FC: max. storage capacity
of the catchment
LP: Limit of the pot.
Evaporation

Output:
Actual Evaporation

Ssm,i = Ssm,i-1 + Pr + Pm - Ea - ΔSuz

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 Runoff module Q*(t)
S
Q(t)
State equation Q(t)=1/K*S(t)

Continuity equation

Characteristic
differentail
equation

Solution:

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 Model calibration
• A-priori estimation
of model
parameters
• Calibration to
runoff
– Manual calibration
– Automatic
calibration
(through objective
function)

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 Parameter regionalisation
• Spatial proximity
• Catchment similarity
• Model averaging
• Regression analysis
• Reginal calibration

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 Parameter regionalisation

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 Part 2:
Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R

1) Calibrate the HBV model in the

catchments with data
2) Regionalise the model parameters
and check how well the
regionalisation works

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R

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 Exercise with R
Group Catchment Parameters (in bold the most important)

RENO
1 ...
a Casalecchio (id1)

SAMOGGIA
2 ...
a Calcara (id5)
FOGLIA
3
a Montecchio (id13)
CANDIGLIANO
4
a Acqualagna (id14)
METAURO
5
a Bellaguardia (id15)
CHIENTI
6
a Ponte Giove (id17)
CHIENTI
7
a Pieve Torina (id18)
TENNA
8
a Amandola (id19)
TRONTO
9
a Tolignano (id22)

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 Exercise with R
Group Catchment Findings and comparisons

RENO
1 ...
a Casalecchio (id1)

SAMOGGIA
2 ...
a Calcara (id5)
FOGLIA
3
a Montecchio (id13)
CANDIGLIANO
4
a Acqualagna (id14)
METAURO
5
a Bellaguardia (id15)
CHIENTI
6
a Ponte Giove (id17)
CHIENTI
7
a Pieve Torina (id18)
TENNA
8
a Amandola (id19)
TRONTO
9
a Tolignano (id22)

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 Exercise with R

Summarise the
findings on the map

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 Exercise with R
Group Catchment Regionalised Parameters and efficiency

RENO
1 ...
a Casalecchio (id1)

SAMOGGIA
2 ...
a Calcara (id5)
FOGLIA
3
a Montecchio (id13)
CANDIGLIANO
4
a Acqualagna (id14)
METAURO
5
a Bellaguardia (id15)
CHIENTI
6
a Ponte Giove (id17)
CHIENTI
7
a Pieve Torina (id18)
TENNA
8
a Amandola (id19)
TRONTO
9
a Tolignano (id22)

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 CONCLUSIONS

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 Conclusions: PUB best practice

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