Topic 1.

INTRODUCTION TO
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
• Systems thinking. Systems, modeling and simulation.
Complex systems.
• Purpose of system dynamics. Systems and their
models.
• History of system dynamics.Fields of application.
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The analytical and reductionist science

• In the science of the19th and the first decades of the 20th
century prevails the analytical, reductionists, mechanistic
and unidirectional causal paradigm of classical science.

• Analitical: “the whole is the sum of its parts”- “separating into pieces”
as basic tool for knowledge.

• Mechanistic: living things are like complicated machines composed

of parts lacking any intrinsic relationship to each other. Thus, the
source of activities is not the whole itself, but its parts.

• Reductionism: the basic laws of physics explain upper levels of

knowledge.
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The analytical and reductionist science

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The systemic science

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The systemic science

• In the decade of the forties of the 20th century it emerged a new
perspective or "paradigm" in science: the systemic approach.

• The nature is seen as a great organization, as a complexly organized

hierarchy of levels.

• Instead of the analytical and reductive spirit of classical science,

systemic approach addresses the study of complex wholes and poses
special interest on the relationships between elements.

• Emergement properties instead of reductionism: the basic laws of

physics cannot explain everything, there is a hierarchy of knowledge
and each level has its emergent properties.
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Sistemic thinking
• “Clasical science”:
• Separate analysis of each subsystem (hoping that the whole will
be only the sum of the parts)
• Cause-> efect analysis.

cause efect
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Sistemic thinking
• “Sistemic science”:
• Study of the whole system with particular atención to relations and
structures

feedback

cause efect
Feedback
Feedback
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Example: an ecosystem
• Constitutes a system that organizes itself.
Formed by:

• The set of living things and their environment

• The relationships between different species:

symbiosis, parasitism, predation, competence...,

• The exchanges of matter and energy

• The hierarchies and regulations...

The parts
The global vision
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Scientific exploration of the whole

"The classical Science was trying to isolate the elements of the
observed universe - chemical compounds, enzymes, cells, elemental
feelings, individuals in free competition and so much more- with the
hope that joining them together, conceptual or experimentally, would
result in the system or whole - cell, mind, society - and would be
intelligible. Now we have learned that in order to understand we do
not only need the elements, but the relationships among them - say,
enzyme interaction in a cell, the structure and dynamics of social
systems, etc. (...) The general theory of systems is the scientific
exploration of ‘the whole' and the 'totalities' which not so long ago
where considered metaphysical notions that came out of the
boundaries of science.”
Ludwig von Bertalanffy: Teoría general de los sistemas, FCE, Méjico 1981, p. xiii-xiv
(own translation from the spanish translation).
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What to analyse of a system?

• Its components (set of its parts)

• Its environment (set of objects related to components)

• Its structure (relationshios between components and

between components and environment)

• Its mechanism (set of processes that make it work)

MODEL
• Definitions:
• Representation of something.
• Theoretical scheme of a system generated mathematically,
developed to facilitate the understanding of its behaviour.
• Simplificated representation of reality.

• Types of models: mental, formal, physical, mathematical.

• Examples: photo, sketch, scale model, verbal or mental

description, mathematical model to be used in a
computer simulation.
MODEL

Physical model mathematical model

MODELLING AND SIMULATION
MENTAL MODELS
COMPUTER BASED MATHEMATICAL
MODELS

Computer model
Prediction of behavior
Controlled experiments
APPROACHES TO MODELLING

• Black box modelling:

• Model building is based on historical data from the systems evolution. The model
structure is decided “a priori” and their parameters are adjusted to fit data.

DATA x(t), y(t)

x(t)
u(t)

SYSTEM

Model structure Model

2
d x
2
d x 1.43 + 0.025 x + 23.4 x = u (t )
2

a + bx + cx = u (t )
2
2
dt 2

dt
APPROACHES TO MODELLING

• Knowledge based modelling:

• Model building is based on the knowledge of systems components and their

relations. Model structure is constructed based on this knowledge, parameters are
adjusted based on knowledge and historical data. This approach is the most
common in system dynamics.
SYSTEM

Model structure
2
d x
a + bx + cx = u (t )
2
2

dt
 The objectives of system dynamics
modelling

1.To analyze and understand complex systems:

• Their key variables
• Their key structure: feedbaks, tipping points, delays…

2. To use models:
• Take optimal decisions based on the best knowledge available
• Solve problems
• Anticipate future scenarios
 Types of systems to model
1. Technological models
• Control of an electric motor.
• Control of chemical reactors and tanks.
• Temperature control of a building

2. Company models
• Production management
• Market behaviour
• Company strategy

3. Environmental models
• Control of populations
• Pollution control
• Climate change

4. Social models
• Adictions
• Types of organization
COMPLEX SYSTEMS: why mental models are
not enough

Causes of complexity:
• Big number of variables.
• Big number of relationships between variables
• Dynamics systems: delays, diferent time scales, evolution rates…
• Systems with feedback loops
• Non linear systems (efects are not proportional to causes)
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Big number of variables and relationships:
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Feedback loops
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Feedback loops

+ Population
births Population
+

years
 Fedback loops in control engineering

Desired level
level
+ _ PERSON TAP GLASS

EYE
Feedback loops in control engineering
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Dynamic systems: delays, time scales, etc.

delay
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Non linearity: efects are not proportional to causes

Productivity

+
Entrenamiento Productividad

training
COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Accumulation and memory: the history of the system
modifies its behaviour
 Examples
New product development
 Examples
Competition between two firms for the price of a product
 Examples
Evolution of an epidemic
 Example
Management of deer population in a natural park
 Example
Study of World energy resources
 System Dynamics in history
• Sistems Theory: General Systems Theory (1956) Ludwig von Bertalanffy.
Society for General Systems Reseach (1956)

• 1950’s Prof. Jay Forrester (MIT Sloan School of Management) developped

the basic tools for system dynamics modelling and simulation. Industrial
Dynamics, Urban Dynamics, J. Forrester.

• First modeling languajes for System Dynamics (SIMPLE, DYNAMO)

• Club of Rome (Meadows, Meadows and Rangers). Limits to Growth,

World3 model and revisions.
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