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Problem Set 7. Unemployment
1. Government officials find it useful to measure the nation’s “economic health.” The unemployment
rate is currently used as a major indicator of the relative strength of labor supply and demand. Do you
think the unemployment rate is a useful indicator of labor market tightness?
Answer: There are many problems with using the aggregate unemployment rate as an indicator of
labor market tightness. It provides no information about the number of individuals who
stopped searching for work because they were unsuccessful in the past. It tells us nothing
about whether the employed are working at jobs commensurate with their skill levels. It
does not distinguish between unemployment of a skilled adult and unemployment of an
unskilled new entrant into the labor force. It tells us nothing about the number of workers
who are employed. Finally, it is sensitive to the generosity of some social programs, like the
unemployment insurance system. It is consistently measured over time, however, so that—
despite its weaknesses—we can measure changes in labor market conditions from one year
to the next.
2. Is the following assertion true, false, or uncertain? “Increasing the level of unemployment insurance
(UI) benefits will prolong the average length of spells of unemployment. Hence, a policy of raising
UI benefit levels is not socially desirable.” Explain your answer.
Answer: The social desirability of raising UI benefits depends on a number of factors. From an
efficiency perspective, the costs of higher UI benefits are the prolonged spells of
unemployment they induce (they encourage unemployed workers to search longer).
The benefits of higher UI benefits are the better job matches they induce, as they
provide unemployed workers with the resources to continue to search for jobs more
commensurate with their skill levels. If individuals find higherpaying jobs that match
their skills more closely, output will increase and the probability that these workers will
quit their jobs in the future will decline. The empirical magnitudes of these various effects
must be evaluated before one can decide if it is desirable to raise UI benefits.
Answer: The level of unemployment in any country is a function of how fast workers flow into
unemployment as compared to how fast they flow out. The above changes in Mexican
employment conditions will probably tend to increase flows into unemployment, but by
allowing employers to be more flexible, they lower the costs of creating new jobs. Hence,
flows out of unemployment will tend to increase as the pace of job creation is enhanced.
Even the flows into unemployment will be reduced, however, if the changes permit labor
costs to be more flexible in a downward direction during periods of falling demand.
4. One student of the labor market effects of free trade argues that the government should offer “wage
insurance” to workers who lose jobs because of free trade. Under this proposal, the government
would replace a substantial portion of lost earnings if, upon reemployment, eligible workers find that
their new job pays less than the one they lost. This wage insurance would be available for up to two
years after the initial date of job loss. Would this wage insurance program reduce unemployment?
Explain.
Answer: Wage insurance should cause unemployed workers to take offers they would normally
have rejected, thus increasing the flows out of unemployment and into jobs—which, by
itself, would reduce unemployment. Two factors might serve to increase the flows into
unemployment, however, which could increase the level of unemployment. First, if workers
take jobs hastily (the clock starts ticking upon job loss), they may be poorly matched with
their employers—and may quit or be fired after the insurance runs out. Second, employers
may be less reluctant to lay off workers, knowing that they have wage insurance for two
years after layoff.
5. Suppose that initially the Pennsylvania economy is in equilibrium with no unemployment:
Ls 1,000,000 200W and Ld 19,000,000 300W, where W annual wages and L number
of workers. Then structural unemployment arises because the demand for labor falls in Pennsylvania
but wages there are inflexible downward and no one moves out of state. If labor demand falls to
Ld 18,000,000 300W, how many workers will be unemployed in Pennsylvania? What will be its
unemployment rate?
Answer: Find the initial wage and employment level by solving as below:
1,000,000 200W 19,000,000 – 300W, so
500W 20,000,000, and W $40,000
With W $40,000, L 7,000,000. Next, find the gap between Ls and Ld at W $40,000
after the labor demand curve shifts:
Ls 1,000,000 200 40,000 7,000,000
Ld 18,000,000 300 40,000 6,000,000
© 2015 Pearson Education, Inc.
Chapter 14 Unemployment 92
This gap, Ls Ld, shows that unemployment equals 1,000,000. The unemployment rate is
(1,000,000/7,000,000) 100 14.3%.
6. The following table gives data on characteristics of inhabitants in Anytown, U.S.A.
Characteristic Number (in Thousands) of People
Population 500
Population over age 16 400
Persons employed fullor parttime 200
Persons unemployed and actively
seeking work 20
Persons who have quit seeking work
due to lack of success 10
Parttime workers seeking fulltime jobs 30
a. Identify the number of people employed, the number of people unemployed, and the number of
people in the labor force.
b. Calculate the labor force participation rate, the employment rate, and the labor force
unemployment rate.
Answer: a. E number (in thousands) of people employed 200 thousand
U number (in thousands) of people unemployed 20 thousand
L number (in thousands) of people in the labor force E U 220 thousand
b. Labor force participation rate L/POP, where POP number (in thousands) of people
in the population over age 16; L/POP 220/400 55.0%
Employment rate E/POP 200/400 50.0%
Unemployment rate U/L 20/220 9.1%
7. On July 24, 2007, the federal minimum wage was increased from $5.15 per hour to $5.85 per hour.
Consider the effect of this increase on an unemployed job seeker. Using a job search model, what is
the effect on the probability of finding an acceptable job in any given period? How does this increase
affect the expected duration of unemployment and the expected wage (once employed)?
Answer: If the job seeker’s reservation wage is higher than $5.85, there will be no change in the
probability of finding an acceptable job, the expected duration of unemployment, or the
expected wage (once employed). However, if the reservation wage is lower than $5.85, there
will be a decrease in the number of acceptable job offers, which reduces the probability of
finding an acceptable job and increases the duration of unemployment—but also increases
the expected wage, once employed.
If we were to compare today both the unemployment rate and the proportions of Maine and New
Brunswick workers engaged in seasonal work, what do you think we would find? Explain your
reasoning completely, keeping in mind the demand and supply sides of the market for seasonal work
in both places.
Answer: Generous UI benefits for seasonal workers makes seasonal work more attractive, so we would
expect to find a higher proportion of seasonal workers in New Brunswick. Because of the
relatively generous UI benefits, workers in New Brunswick should be willing to work at
partyear jobs for lower wages than workers in Maine—and therefore more partyear work
will be offered by employers in New Brunswick. Seasonal work also implies seasonal
unemployment, so we would expect the unemployment rate in New Brunswick to be
higher.
9. Employees in China can generally be classified as either “regular” or “on contract” (the latter are
hired for a specified period of time). China has just adopted an employment system that requires
regular employees who have been with their employers for at least 10 years to be given “tenure” in
their jobs (they have permanent rights to employment with the employer, and cannot be fired). The
law does not apply to employees who work on contracts that have a specified time limit, even if
these shortterm contracts are renewed over and over.
Analyze the likely effects of this new system on the unemployment rate in China, assuming
unemployment is measured in the same way as it is in the United States.
Answer: This new system increases the job security of “regular” workers and should reduce the layoff
rate (Peu) of these workers; by itself, this tends to lower the unemployment rate. However,
the new system increases the employers’ (quasifixed) costs of hiring labor, because after
10 years of employment, the costs of firing workers are very high. Because the quasifixed
costs of hiring have increased, we would expect the growth of new regular jobs to slow,
which reduces the flows to employment from unemployment (Pue) and nonemployment (Pne);
reducing these flows tends to increase unemployment. The overall effect on the Chinese
unemployment rate is therefore ambiguous.