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accuracy, they act as a black box; given a set of input II. OVERVIEW OF THE METHODOLOGY
variables, it is not easy to interpret their output. Fig 2 depicts the methodology proposed in this paper for
A different methodology based on decision trees is estimating the RDC patterns and their probabilities that a
proposed in this paper to obtain residual demand curve generating firm will face in a specific energy or ancillary
patterns and their corresponding probability. The process service market. The process comprises five steps.
comprises five steps. Firstly, a set of possible explanatory variables of the RDC
The first step consists on an initial selection of explanatory behaviour is selected. The initial selection of explanatory
variables, based on the knowledge and experience of the variables is based on the knowledge and experience of the
market performance, and a correlation study is applied. market performance. With the selected variables a correlation
In the second step, the information of the explanatory study is performed.
variables is reduced to a small number of factors (expressed as Afterwards, a factor analysis of the set of explanatory
linear combinations of the explanatory variables) using the variables is carried out. The factorial analysis is a statistical
statistical technique of factor analysis. technique that reduces the number of explanatory variables,
The third step classifies the different RDC in a finite excluding the non-significant ones. The factor analysis will
number of patterns obtained by applying clustering techniques select the minor number of factors (each factor is a linear
to the whole set of available RDC. combination of the initial explanatory variables) that explain
A decision tree is built in the fourth step to compute the most of the data variability.
probability of each RDC pattern, taking as input the Then, the set of RDC data is classified through clustering
estimations of the explanatory factors. techniques obtaining a finite number of significant patterns
In order to include the probability of each estimated RDC that group similar behaviours of RDC.
pattern in a linear optimization program, these curves are The next step builds a decision tree that explains the
approximated by linear regression. The resulting quadratic patterns of the residual demand curves attending to the values
income function obtained is lineally modeled by a set of of the factors computed in the factor analysis.
tangent cuts. In addition, integer variables must be included in
order to achieve an increasing bid that will be submitted into Correlations study
the market. y
The methodology proposed has been applied to estimate the Initial selection of variables.
Study of the correlations
RDC patterns and their associated probability that a Spanish of the explanatory variables.
generating utility face in the market. The Spanish electricity
x1
market is organized in two different kinds of markets: (a)
Factor Analysis
energy markets (which include the day ahead electricity market
and six intradaily markets) and (b) ancillary services markets Variables analysis.
(comprising the secondary and tertiary reserve markets and the Explanatory variables
reduction.
deviation management markets). It should be noted that the
methodology proposed in this paper is a general methodology
that can be applied to the different energy or ancillary services Clustering
markets. However, in this study, only intradaily RDC patterns
Residual demand curves
have been estimated. On one hand, the Spanish generating classification.
Patterns of behaviour
utility under consideration acts as a price-taker firm in the are obtained.
daily and secondary reserve market. On the other hand, the
tertiary and deviation management markets are difficult to Decision tree
predict. The estimated intradaily residual demand curve
x1 < X 1 ?
patterns have been included in the stochastic optimization A decision tree is built, in
order to obtain the probability
model described in [6]. of each RDC pattern. x2 < X 2 ?
The paper is organised as follows. Section II overviews the
methodology proposed to estimate the RDC patterns and their Model
corresponding probability. The next five sections describe with
Linear regresion of RDC patterns
a case study of the first intradaily market in Spain, each step of Different scenarios of
Income
the methodology in detail. Section III contains the correlation function
residual demand (patterns)
- probability (decision tree).
study. Factor analysis of the explanatory variables is
performed in section IV. Section V details the clustering of the
Fig 2: Proposed methodology for building residual demand curves
residual demand curves. Section VI deals with the decision
tree built to predict the corresponding probability of each RDC Finally, taking as input the estimations of the explanatory
pattern. Section VII explains how the RDC patterns are factors, the decision tree is applied to obtain the probability of
modelled within a mixed-integer linear optimisation program. each RDC pattern. A linear regression of the RDC patterns are
Finally, conclusions are presented in section VIII. computed to feed the stochastic mixed-linear optimization
3
model formulated in [6], where binary variables model the with the first six variables. The factor scree plot of the analysis
non-decreasing constraints of the generation bid. depicted in Fig 4 yields that 2 factors explain most of the data
The following sections describe each step of the variability (about 95% of the total variability).
methodology in detail, using a case study applied to the first Fig 5 shows the rotation space graph that indicates the
intradaily market of the Spanish power system. underlying structure of the explanatory variables. Factor 1
comprises variables x2 through x6 and is related with the
III. CORRELATIONS STUDY power system demand. Factor 2 is explained mainly by
An initial set of variables that explain the behaviour of the variable x1 and is related with the marginal price of the daily
residual demand curves is chosen. The initial selection of market.
explanatory variables is based on the knowledge and The conclusions obtained in the factor analysis confirms the
experience of the market performance. A correlation study is results yielded by the correlations study performed in step one.
then carried out in order to establish the level of correlation Gráfico de sedimentación
between variables. This correlation analysis permits a better 4
Eigenvalue
1
be referred as x1 ,....,x7 . Fig 3 shows the scatter plot of the
Autovalor
selected explanatory variables. 0
1 2 3 4
Component
Número number
de componente
x5
.5 x3
x2
Component 2
0.0
-.5
worth because the decreasing error is not significant; a smaller illustrates how a terminal node can be used to estimate the
number of groups does not correctly represent the groups and probability of each pattern. Each node represents the total
therefore the error grows quickly. number of examples traversing the node (referred as L in Fig
An initial set of 4992 residual demand curves of the first 8) and the total number of examples of each pattern (referred
intradaily market was available in the case study presented. as a for the third pattern in Fig 8). If the node of Fig 8 is the
The clustering error-number of clusters function of Fig 6 terminal node reached when the tree is applied, the probability
indicates that an adequate number of clusters can be of pattern three is given by the ratio a / L . The classification
established in 6. rules of each node is derived from a mathematical process that
2.4
x 10
5
minimizes the impurity of the resulting nodes, using a group of
2.2
examples called learning set. For an excellent reference of the
applications of decision trees to power systems, see [9].
2
Error
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
a ρP =
a
1 3
L
0.8
0.6
0.4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
L
Number of Clusters
Fig 8: Structure of a node of a decision tree and computation of the
Fig 6: Clustering error vs number of clusters for intradaily market 1 residual probabilities of each pattern.
demand curves
In the case study presented, a decision tree has been
The clustering of the residual demand curves of the first
developed to estimate the probability of occurrence of each
intradaily market has been performed with the k-means
RDC pattern obtained in the cluster analysis. The separation
algorithm. Fig 7 depicts the prototype of each cluster and the
rules are built according to numerical values of the two factors
dispersion of the RDC around each cluster.
extracted in the factor analysis. Fig 9 illustrates a
simplification of the decision tree obtained for the case study.
Pattern 1 (1905 curves ) Pattern 3 (1507 curves) Pattern 5 (779 curves)
For instance, if the numerical estimation of factor 1 was 0.2
and the numerical value of factor 2 was 0.4, we would end in
the final node circled in the picture, where we could determine
the probability of each pattern as sketched in Fig 8.
Patterns
1
2
Pattern 2 (152 curves)
3
Pattern 4 (399 curves)
Pattern 6 (250 curves) 4
5
Factor2<-0.31111? 6
no
si
Factor2<1.3518?
si no
∂Ink
Ink ≤ Ink1 + ⋅ ( qk − qk1 )
∂qk qk1
... (3)
qk qk qk
∂Ink
Ink ≤ In + j
⋅ ( qk − q j
)
k
∂qk qkj
k
[MWh ]
Fig 10: Approximation of the income quadratic convex function by a set of
where: tangent cuts.
∂Ink
= ak + 2 ⋅ bk ⋅ qk1 VIII. CONCLUSIONS
∂qk qk1
(4)
Optimal bidding procedures have to be developed by a
generating agent to optimize its strategy. In order to model
In addition, non-decreasing constraints must be imposed in market power within optimal bidding procedures, the residual
the optimization program in order to achieve an increasing bid demand curve that an agent faces within a specific market must
that will be submitted into the market. be considered. This paper has proposed a methodology based
On one hand, if the price of a pattern k is greater than the on decision trees to estimate the stochastic RDC patterns
price of a pattern k + 1 , the energy must be also greater: obtaining their associated probability. In addition, a linear
pk > pk + 1 → qk > qk + 1 . This condition can be imposed formulation of the patterns has been sketched in order to apply
the results as input of stochastic optimization bidding model.
6
Binary variables need to be introduced to impose non- projects for different firms related with the energy
industry.
decreasing requirements in the generation bids.
Luis Rouco Rodríguez (Student Member 1989,
IX. ACKNOWLEDGMENT Member 1991) obtained the Electrical Engineer degree
and the Ph.D degree from Universidad Politécnica de
The optimization tool described in this paper has been
Madrid in 1985 and 1990. He is Associate Professor
developed under the leadership of Spanish utility Viesgo S. L of the School of Engineering of Universidad Pontificia
of Enel Group. The authors gratefully acknowledge the fruitful Comillas. His areas of interest are modeling, analysis,
comments of J. Torné and all the personal staff of the energy simulation and identification of electric power
systems. He has been visiting researcher at Ontario
management center of Viesgo. Hydro, MIT and ABB Power Systems.
X. REFERENCES
[1] A. Baillo, “A methodology to develop optimal schedules and offering Alvaro Franco Ugidos was born in Leon, Spain, in
strategies for a generation company operating in a short-term electricity 1978. He received the degree of Industrial Engineer in
market”, PhD Thesis, Comillas University, October 2002. 2001 from Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid,
[2] J. García-González, J. Barquín, J. Román, “Building suply functions Spain. From December 2001 to September 2002, he
under uncertainty for a day—ahead electricity market”, in Proc. 6th was a Researcher at the Instituto de Investigación
International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Tecnológica, Universidad Pontifica Comillas.
Systems, Madeira, Portugal, September 2000. Nowadays, he is a gas analyst in Endesa and is
[3] D. Berzal, J. I. De-la-Fuente, T. Gómez, “Building Generation Supply pursuing a Bussiness Adminsitration Bachelor from
Curves under Uncertainty in Residual Demand Curves for the Day- UNED. His areas of interest include operation and
Ahead Electricity Market”, in Proc IEEE Power Tech. Conference, economics in electric and gas power systems.
Porto, Portugal, September 2001.
[4] A. Martín-Calmarza, I. De-la-Fuente, “New forecasting method for the Joaquín Fernández-Caro was born in Seville, Spain, in 1971. He received
residual demand curves using time series (ARIMA) models”, in Proc. the degree of Mechanical Engineer in 1996. He started working in Saltos del
7th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods, Naples, Italy. Guadiana in 1997, in charge of the hydro scheduling. He moved to Spanish
September 2002. utility Endesa in the wholesale market bidding group, where he stood for 3
[5] J. Villar, A. Muñoz, E. F. Sánchez-Úbeda, A. Mateo, M. Casado, A. years till he moved to strategy. In 2001 he moved to Viesgo S. L. of Enel
Campos, J. Maté, E. Centeno, S. Rubio, J. J. Marcos, R. González, Group where he is actually on charge of the wholesale market operation and
“SGO: Management information system for strategic bidding in medium term planning.
electrical markets”, in Proc. 2001 IEEE Power Tech. Conference,
Porto, Portugal, POM6-394. September 2001. Julián de Benito was born in Madrid, Spain, in 1972.
[6] A. Franco, E Lobato, L. Rouco, A. Ugedo, J. Fernández-Caro, J. De- He received the degree of Electrical Engineer in 1997.
Benito, J. Cofre, “Optimization of the Spanish Market Séquense by a He started working in ABB Service, a branch of ABB
Price-Taker Generating Firm”, submitted for presentation at 2003 IEEE AG, in 1998, working as a consultant in plant
Power Tech. Conference, Bologna, Italy, September 2003. maintenance. In 1999, he joined Endesa, integrating
[7] A. Basilevsky, Statistical Factor Analysis and Related Methods. Theory the wholesale market bidding group. In 2001, he
and Applications, New York: Wiley, 1994 moved to Viesgo Generación S. L. of Enel Group,
[8] B. S. Everitt, Cluster Analysis, Third Edition, New York: Wiley, 1993 where he is in charge of the energy management center
[9] L. Wehenkel, Automatic Learning Techniques in Power Systems, of Viesgo Generación.
Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1999.
[10] J. García-González, J. Barquín, J. Román, A. González “Strategic Jorge de la Hoz Ardiz was born in Madrid, Spain, in 1975. He received the
Bidding in Deregulated Power Systems”, in Proc. at 1999 Power degree of Electrical Engineer in 1999 from Universidad Pontificia Comillas,
System Computation Conference”, Trondheim, Norway, July 1999. Madrid, Spain. In 1999, he joined SchlumbergerSema as Energy Business
Consultant in charge of Electricity and Gas Projects. In January 2002, he
moved to Viesgo S.L. of Enel Group where he is in charge of the energy
XI. BIOGRAPHIES
management and biding of Viesgo in the Spanish wholesale electricity
market.
Alejandro Ugedo Álvarez-Ossorio was born in
Madrid, Spain, in 1979. He obtained an Industrial Javier Chofre Álvarez was born in Denia (Alicante), Spain, in 1973. He
Engineer degree in 2002 from Universidad Pontificia received the degree of Minus Engineer (Energy) in 1998 from Universidad
Comillas, Madrid, Spain. Since September 2002, he is Politécnica, Madrid, Spain. In 1998, he joined Tecnatom (Engineering
a Researcher at the Instituto de Investigación Department) in ELCOGAS GICC Plant. In 2000, he was in charge of the O
Tecnológica, Universidad Pontifica Comillas. His & M in CND Cogeneration Plant, in Dominican Republic. In January 2002,
areas of interest include analysis, planning, operation he moved to Viesgo S.L. of Enel Group where he is on charge of the energy
and economics in electric power systems. At the management and biding of Viesgo in the Spanish wholesale electricity
present time, he is participating in a research project market.
for a firm related with the energy industry.