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Q2. What demographic factors are in play that will likely influence the election results?
Two demographics are important in this election – regions and youth. The opposition
Pheu Thai Party is a direct descendent of Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai party.
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Many of its candidates were Members of Parliament (MPs) who served when Thaksin
or his sister Yingluck were prime minister. The Pheu Thai Party is expected poll well in
the North and particularly in the Northeast. The Democrat Party, Thailand’s oldest, is
popular among its supporters in the South with some appeal among royalists and the
elite in Bangkok.
There are 50 million enrolled voters for this election. Approximately twenty-five
percent are aged between 18 and 25. Many turned eighteen during military rule.
Seven million, or fourteen percent, are first-time voters.
Thai analysts assert that Thai youth are more politically engaged than any generation
since the mid-1970s. Their cri de cœur has focused on calling for elections (the junta
postponed the election date five times since 2014) and opposing military rule. A poll
by the King Prajadhipok Institute found that ninety percent of young voters (aged 18-
24) surveyed said they would vote this year.
Thai analysts are unable to determine the political loyalties of Thai youths and which
political parties they are likely to favour. One minor party, Future Forward, has
attracted youthful progressives with a platform of opposing compulsory military
service and an end to economic monopolies for wealthy families.
Q3. What is the likely outcome? Who will form the next government?
There are 45 parties that have registered to contest the 24 March election. Three
parties are expected to dominate: the pro-regime Palang Pracharat Party, the
Democrat Party and the opposition Pheu Thai Party. None of these three parties are
expected to win 251 seats or a majority in the Lower House. A multiparty coalition is
the most likely outcome.
There are three likely scenarios. The first scenario is that the Pheu Thai Party will form
government in coalition with minor parties but without sufficient votes to elect its
candidate as prime minister. That is because a party needs a total of 376 votes to elect
the prime minister but only 251 votes to form the government in the Lower House.
Recall that the prime minister is elected by both chambers (500 members of the House
plus 250 members of the Senate). It is widely expected that the military junta
appointed members of the Senate will vote as a bloc.
The second scenario is that the Pheu Thai Party will form government in coalition with
several minor parties and command sufficient votes to elect its candidate as prime
minister. This would set up a confrontation with the junta-dominated Senate that
must approve legislation passed by the Lower House.
The third scenario, a variant of the first, is that the current Prime Minister Prayuth
Chan-Ocha is elected prime minister as a result of 250 Senate bloc votes plus 126 votes
by the Phalang Pracharat in coalition with the Democrat Party (and/or other minor
parties). This result could set up a confrontation between the opposition parties and
the prime minister.
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According to the most recent poll conducted by the Nation Group of journalists, the
distribution of single member seats in the Lower House is forecast to be:
Democrat Party 88
Phalang Pracharat 62
Bhumjaithai Party 31
Chartthaipattana 12
Chart Pattana 6
Prachachart 2
Peau Chat 1
Future Forward 0
Total 350/500
not the elected Lower House. And the Thai military will retain the authority to arrest,
detain and interrogate civilians with little safeguards against abuse.
All future governments are obligated to adhere to the Twenty-Year Development Plan
drawn up by the military junta in October 2018. This plan lays down policy in such
areas as national development and national security.
Q5. What is likely to change in Thailand’s political system after the elections?
Political scientists have described the Thai political system as a networked monarchy
under the reign of King Bhumipol Adulyadej (Rama XI). The King moderated the
political interactions between the royal family and its retainers, the government
bureaucracy and the military. He was able to do so because of his moral stature.
Following the March national election, King Vijiralongkorn will be officially crowned in
ceremonies scheduled for early May. But it is unlikely the new king will be able to
reactivate his father’s networked monarchy.
Thailand is likely to witness considerable continuity of the semi-authoritarian system
engineered by the military over the last five years. The national election will legitimize
this system at the same time that it opens limited space to democratic forces.
Thailand is likely to be governed by a coalition government of weak medium to small
political parties led by a prime minister who is not popularly elected. The new
government will be constrained in what it can do by unelected institutions enshrined
in the constitution and comprised of senior or retired bureaucrats, high-ranking
military officers, and well-connected wealthy businessmen appointed by the military
junta that seized power – the National Council for Peace and Order.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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Democrat Party 22
Phalang Pracharat 23
Democrat Party 17
Bhumjaithai 13
Chartthaipattana 10
Undetermined 4
6
Phalang Pracharat 13
Democrat Party 7
Bhumjaithai 2
Chart Pattana 1
Palang Pracharat 25
Bhumjaithai 13
Undetermined 11
Democrat Party 40
Bhumjaithai 3
Pracharat 2
Phalang Pracharat 1