Professional Documents
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Investing in the types of equities referred to in this report involves several risks, including loss of
capital, illiquidity, lack of dividends and dilution, and it should be done only as part of a diversified
portfolio. For more information about the risks of investing, please read our disclaimer.
The performance statistics stated in this report refer to the past, and past performance is not a
reliable indicator of future results. All of our returns reflect paper returns, which means that while
they show the notional performance of investments based on market activity. The do not necessarily
reflect the cash returns that could be achieved if the relevant financial instruments were traded.
All tax treatment referred to in this report depends on individual circumstances and may be subject
to change in the future.
York Trading Club does not provide legal, financial or tax advice of any kind and nothing in this report
constitutes such advice. If you have any questions with respect to legal, financial or tax matters, you
should consult a professional adviser.
Performance
Return Since
Monthly Return 5.96% 4.68%
Inception
% of Positive
Excess Return –1.21% 75.00%
Months (Last 4)
Risk
ETFs 26%
Retail - Food 17%
Consumer - Discretionary 15%
Consumer - Cyclical 15%
Retail - Consumer 6%
Energy 6%
Paper and Related Products 6%
Consumer - Non-cyclical 5%
Communications 4%
Energy Communications
6.0% 4.0%
Retail - Consumer
6.0%
ETFs
26.0%
Sector Exposure -
Consumer - Cyclical Feb 2019
15.0%
Loblaw Companies
L Ltd. TSX Retail-Food $12,978.00 $63.63 $64.89 0.0198 $ 252.00
BBY Best Buy Inc. NYSE Retail-Consumer $4,678.89 $59.24 $67.81 0.1447 $ 591.33
SPY S&P 500 ETF NYSE ETFs $19,628.70 $270.06 $280.41 0.0383 $ 724.50
Consumer-
ETSY ETSY Inc. NASDAQ Discretionary $3,638.50 $54.65 $72.77 0.3316 $ 967.50
California
CRC Resources Corp. NYSE Energy $4,748.00 $20.87 $23.74 0.1375 $ 574.00
Consumer,
UAA Under Armour NYSE $2,286.00 $20.79 $22.86 0.0996 $ 207.00
Cyclical
Consumer, Non-
BEAT Bio Telemetry Inc. NASDAQ cyclical $3,663.50 $72.02 $73.27 0.0174 $ 62.50
Consumer,
DPZ Dominos NYSE $2,507.30 $280.10 $250.73 -0.1049 $ (293.70)
Cyclical
Consumer,
PLAY Dave & Buster's NASDAQ $2,589.50 $47.52 $51.79 0.0899 $ 213.50
Cyclical
Consumer,
GOOS CanadaGoose TSX $3,686.50 $76.02 $73.73 -0.0301 $ (114.50)
Cyclical
Cash $28,397.73
Portfolio Value
$104,682.51
$100,000.00 $100,406.41
$86,968.00
$83,174.89
Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019
Closed Positions
On the other hand, we did not exit any positions in February. January saw a lot of volatility with
improved US-China trade talks pushing up the major financial markets with small waves of declines
due to the same trade tensions. Additionally, no stop losses in our positions were triggered
throughout the month. A majority of our positions including Loblaw (TSX: L), Best Buy (NYSE:BBY),
ETSY (NASDAQ:ETSY), and many others have reported strong earnings throughout the month and
continue to show positive momentum thus we have not exited any of these positions.
New Positions
While January was a dormant month for our portfolio, we managed to open several positions through
February. Some positions include Under Armour (NYSE:UAA), Dave and Buster’s (NASDAQ:PLAY) and
Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU). We experienced a very strong series of stock pitches submitted by our
associate team through this month with almost every pitch reflecting a good trade. A majority of
these trades were geared to profit from upcoming earnings at the time they were submitted and have
delivered good results since.
Portfolio
Market Entry
Symbol Company Name Exchange Sector Allocati
Value Price
on
California
CRC Resources Corp. NYSE Energy $4,174.00 $20.87 4.17%
Consumer, non-
BEAT Bio Telemetry Inc. NASDAQ Cyclical $3,601.00 $72.02 3.60%
PLAY Dave & Buster's NASDAQ Consumer, Cyclical $2,376.00 $47.52 2.38%
U.S. Technology Sector Outlook. In 2019, the China Outlook. The countries are currently in
cloud computing industry is expected to see a “bid-ask” which doesn’t seem to come to a
growth in demand as corporations across all comprehensive agreement in the near future.
i n d u s t r i e s a r e s l ow l y m ov i n g t owa r d s Uncertainty is high, and as a baseline we can
integrating cloud computing into their expect trade tensions to stay the same or
operations. Industry leaders are beginning to possibly escalate in 2019 which will affect the
understand the great value (ex. Improved real economy and financial markets. China has
efficiency & reduction of costs) cloud slowed quite sharply in 2018, on the back of
computing brings to their organization. Through slower credit growth and fears about a more
this integration, this will allow companies to damaging trade war.
focus on enhancing customer relations and
innovating, instead of investing capital into The typical “Catch-22” situation that Chinese
policymakers faced during previous economic
expensive specialized equipment (ex. Servers).
Consequently, industry leading cloud computing downswings is how to avert a sharp growth
hosts such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and slowdown without exacerbating the debt
buildup. Policy makers need to strike a fine
IBM are expected to see growth in this
particular revenue stream. (Sallomi, 2019) balance between averting a sharp slide in
growth and preventing a fast debt buildup to
GDP Deceleration. There is an expected eventually have a growth target “ 6.0 %- 6.5%”
economic growth slowdown in 2019 due to around an estimated growth rate of 6.2% by the
stabilization of the fiscal tariff which was a year end. The growth is expected to slow down
major contributor to US economy plugging the due to demographic he adwinds , cle ar
rates to 3.5%+ which will decelerate to 1.75% weakness in the economy over the past 6
potentially by end 2019. Robust job creation months even before actual export growth
should push the unemployment rate to 3% by showed any slowdown at all amid the trade
early 2020, well below our 4½% estimate of full dispute, and other growth constraints such as
As we could potentially be nearing the end of the cycle, investment associates are advised to seek
counter cyclical or defensive opportunities to tackle issues regarding the slowing down of economic
growth. Consumer discretionary spending may become suppressed as building permits and housing
prices decline across North America with a possibility of rising wages. Emerging market asset
classes, or even North American equities with a sizeable revenue exposure to the emerging market
may be susceptible to drawbacks. U.S. Dollar rally means emerging markets with dollar denominated
debt will be particularly squeezed.
Although the market is frothy, we recommend that investment associates continue to invest in good
opportunities regardless of sector. We believe that the global and U.S. economy still has some slack
and that the recession is not imminent. With current market conditions where they are after a
correction, equity prices are attractive and more names will be added to our portfolio. These
assumptions are based on the current economic state that we are in and likely will adjust our view in
the future based on new information and developments.
Disclaimer: all information present in this report is for educational and informational purpose only and without warranty of any kind. All
information present in this report represents only the opinion of the writers, which may be influenced by various factors. You are advised to
conduct your independent research and invest responsibly. Investing in markets may not be suitable for all investors, and investing in the
stock market has risks, with the possibility in which you could lose all your investment. Before making your investment decision, please
consult with your financial advisor. York Trading Club is not responsible for your losses, financial or otherwise, as a result of making
investment decisions.
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