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Ref. 512.0/FDL-NMO
New Delhi, May 20th, 2010
• The Indian economy has seen a remarkable turn-around after bearing the impact of the
global economic slowdown that started in September 2008, and is currently experiencing
a time of renewed optimism with growth momentum picking up gradually in the recent
months. According to government’s estimate, the Indian economy has grown by 7.2
percent during fiscal year 2009-10 (FY 2010)1, an increase from 6.7 percent growth in FY
2009. The industry sector has witnessed excellent rebound this year. The cumulative
growth for FY 2010 works out to 10.4 per cent, against 2.8 per cent in FY 2009. The fiscal
stimulus measures taken by the government, together with a loosening monetary policy,
have helped in pushing up the overall GDP growth. However, the recovery is still
unbalanced. The services sector is expected to have grown by 8.7 percent, marginally
lower than previous year’s 9.8 percent growth. On the agricultural front, the production
has been impacted by an erratic monsoon resulting in growth of (-)0.2 percent against 1.6
percent growth achieved in FY 2009.
• Though the stimulus packages have pepped up economic activities, these measures
have also contributed to an increased fiscal deficit (6.8 percent of GDP), the highest in
this decade. The combined fiscal deficit (Centre and States) comes to 10.5 percent. For
the new fiscal year, the government is planning to reduce the fiscal deficit by 1.3 percent.
• The FY 2010 seems to have also run up a high current account deficit (4.1 percent of
GDP) even as the rupee appreciated by 11 per cent against US dollar during this period,
mainly on account of high capital inflows.
• The rapid recovery in the economy has also brought forth the challenge of higher
inflation. The wholesale price index in February was 9.89% higher than a year earlier.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is following a calibrated approach. From an accommodative
monetary policy beginning September 2008, the RBI has embarked on a phased exit,
keeping in mind two main challenges - restraining inflationary pressures, and ensuring
adequate liquidity at reasonable cost to sustain the current growth momentum.
1 st st
The Indian fiscal year runs from 1 April to 31 March.
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• The macroeconomic fundamentals are still strong, e.g. solid foreign reserves at USD
254 billion, high gross domestic saving rate (34 percent of GDP) and investment rate (36
percent). A large domestic market, with young population having rising disposal
incomes, provides India greater resilience compared to many other emerging economies.
The country has been able to add some 0.8 million new jobs during the period September
2008 - December 2009, according to a government survey. India has been able to
marginally improve its position in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitive
Ranking 2009-10 to 49th rank from 50th rank in the previous year. It is still very much
behind China (29th rank) but ahead of Brazil (56th rank) and Russia (63rd rank). The
continued buoyancy in foreign capital inflows into India indicates that it remains an
attractive destination for foreign investors. Indian economy grew annually by plus 9
percent over the last three years which has helped India to strengthen its economic
weight in global affairs.
• The consumer and producer sentiments in the country have once again become upbeat
(e.g. industrial, exports and agricultural growth further picking up). The investor sentiment
in India has been one of the highest among the Asian economies because of the robust
domestic consumption and growth optimism, that is supported also by a global
recovery. Now, most estimates indicate that India is heading for 8 percent growth in FY
2011. The sectors offering good business opportunities include consumer goods, capital
goods, construction, telecommunication, information technology, infrastructure, financial
and non-financial services, etc.
• The business conditions are still below optimal. The infrastructure bottlenecks,
superfluous administrative controls, corruption, rigid labour laws, high interest rates,
shortage of skilled labour in some sectors, are some of the areas of concern. As India
moves to sustain vibrant economic growth to meet its “inclusive growth” objectives, it
definitely needs to invest heavily in both human and physical infrastructure.
• The downside risks to Indian economy include the high fiscal deficit and inflation,
which pose threat to the sustainability of the current growth momentum. Furthermore, the
announced curtailment in government spending will reduce the contribution of
government demand to GDP growth unlike in the previous years when higher
government spending helped to push up the overall demand.
• The government has been cautiously managing the macroeconomic conditions so that
economic growth can be sustained. However, implementation of necessary structural
reforms in the economy is still too slow. The government has announced to implement
two key economic reforms, a uniform Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a Direct Tax
Code to be introduced effective April 2011. There are some indications that the
Commerce and Industry Ministry will try to build public consensus to further open up
“politically sensitive” sectors, such as defence, multi-brand retail, agriculture etc.
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Lanka, Nepal, Chile, Singapore, South Korea, and trading blocs - ASEAN, SAFTA and
MERCOSUR.
• The European Union and the United States remain amongst the most important trading
and investment partners of India. Therefore, India is interested to increasingly
institutionalise its trade and economic promotion dialogue with EU and USA. Recently,
India and US Trade Ministers have signed “Indo-US Trade Policy Forum Framework for
Cooperation on Trade and Investment”. Both sides also announced the launch of “India-
US Financial and Economic Partnership”. Its stated aim is to strengthen bilateral
engagement and understanding on macroeconomic, financial sector and infrastructure-
related issues.
• India and ASEAN signed in August 2009 a FTA in goods within the framework agreement
(CECA). It became effective from January 1, 2010 between India and some ASEAN
countries (those who were able to complete their internal procedures). Apart from
commercial and economic aspects, both India and ASEAN are looking to build stronger
strategic geopolitical advantage, leveraging the emerging free trade relationship. For
India, it is important to become more involved with ASEAN, as ASEAN+3 (China, Japan,
and Korea) bloc is already progressing.
• India-Korea CEPA has the distinction of India’s first such agreement with an OECD
country, and the second comprehensive agreement signed by India, after its 2005 CECA
with Singapore. Under the trade agreement for goods, which is implemented effective 1st
January 2010, India has placed 104 items at zero duty and 962 items at preferential duty.
• India is also a member of the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA). APTA is a
preferential tariff arrangement that aims at promoting intra-regional trade through
exchange of mutually agreed concessions by member countries. It has five members
namely Bangladesh, China, India, Rep. of Korea, and Sri Lanka. The Framework
Agreements on Trade Facilitation, Services and Investments have been agreed upon,
and the negotiations are still going on in the areas of tariff concessions and non-tariff
measures.
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also cover services and investment. Some hitches still remain given the peculiar geo-
political relations between India and Pakistan.
• Similarly, within the Framework Agreement on the BIMSTEC Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand have completed negotiations on tariff
reductions/elimination in goods. Negotiations on services and investment agreement are
under way.
• India and Thailand are continuing negotiations, albeit on a slow pace, for a FTA in goods,
as a part of their broader framework agreement to cover trade in goods, services,
investment, and areas of economic cooperation.
• India is also conducting negotiations or feasibility study for free trade agreements with
many other countries, e.g. Australia, Japan, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Nigeria, and blocs - GCC and SACU.
3 Foreign trade
3.1 Development and general outlook
2
The figures in brackets are the percentage increase/decrease as compared to 5 months of FY 2009.
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& related products (-21 p.c.), petroleum products (-49 p.c.), textiles & related products (-
13 p.c.), agricultural and allied products (-33 p.c.).
• EU and USA remain the major trading partners of India. As per the detailed trade data
available for the first 5 months of FY 2010, they bought 20 percent and 11 percent
respectively of India’s exports. With regard to Indian imports, they have shares of 14
percent and 6 percent respectively. China, with a share of 12 percent, is the second
largest supplier to Indian market.
• India still maintains a relatively high import tariff regime and its import procedures need to
be further simplified. Reportedly, the share of import duties in India’s total tax revenue is
17.1 percent (FY 2009) as compared to 6.5 percent in China. Import duties still are an
important source of government’s revenue but they hinder a deeper market penetration.
Overall, the Indian market has been gradually opening up. This year, the special
additional duty on some products has been abolished.
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Business services include management consultancy, engineering, technical services etc.
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declining trend has been reversed in the year 2010, with Swiss export to India going up
by 16 percent to CHF 610 million during the first quarter as compared to first quarter
2009. Similarly, the Swiss import from India has also gone up by 2 percent as per the
said quarterly data.
• The major items that Switzerland exported to India during 2009 were: machinery (-12
percent)4, pharmaceuticals (+5 p.c.), pearls, jewellery and precious metals (-27 p.c.),
chemical products (-5 p.c.), precision instruments (-1 p.c.), and watches (-11 p.c.). On the
other hand, the main items imported by Switzerland from India during 2009 were
chemical products (-24 percent), textiles (-8 p.c.), agricultural products (-6 p.c.), pearls,
jewellery and precious metal items (-70 p.c.), and transport equipment (+78 p.c.).
• As per the Indian trade data available for the first 5 months of FY 2010, Switzerland’s
share in Indian exports went down to 0.3 percent from 0.4 per cent in previous year.
Switzerland is the major supplier of gold and silver to India, and during the said period, its
share in India’s total imports was high at 4.1 percent (4.5 per cent during the first 5
months of FY 2009).
• India offers big business potential in many industry and service sectors due to a large
untapped domestic market. The sectors offering good business prospects are
automotive, engineering, chemical and pharmaceutical, power, telecommunication,
healthcare, precision instruments, food processing, consumer goods, and infrastructure.
4
The figures in brackets are the percentage increase/decrease as compared to the year 2008.
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because it is a ‘routing point’ for foreign companies to avail better tax benefits. Similar is
the case with Cyprus.
• The following sectors attracted the major share of FDI cumulative inflows (April 2000-
December 2009): financial and non-financial services (22 percent), followed by computer
software and hardware (9 p.c.), telecommunication (8 p.c.), housing and real estate (8
p.c.), construction, incl. highways (7 p.c.), power (4 p.c.), automobile (4 p.c.), and
metallurgical industries (3 p.c.).
• Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which made a fairly large exit from the Indian stock
markets in FY 2009, have made a comeback this year. FIIs have registered net inflows of
capital amounting to USD 20.5 billion during the first three quarters of FY 2010, against
net outflows of USD 12.4 billion during the corresponding period of previous fiscal year.
• Indian companies continue to explore the complementarities abroad, e.g. to have access
to foreign markets, access to high-end talent, secure source of raw materials, or to find
mutually beneficial manufacturing resources in foreign countries. During the FY 2009, the
outward FDI remain high at $16.07 billion, but there was a decrease of 11.6 percent from
$18.1 billion in the previous fiscal year. During the first three quarters of FY 2010, Indian
companies have invested USD 8.4 billion abroad, as compared to USD 12.7 invested
during the corresponding period of previous fiscal year, showing a decline of 34 percent.
Some of the countries which have attracted major investments (excluding energy sector)
by the Indian companies in recent years are US, UK, Netherlands, Australia, Singapore,
UAE, and Mauritius. Sector-wise, these outbond investments have gone into automotive,
metals, energy, chemical and pharmaceutical, engineering, information technology /
software services, and other services, like financial services, shipping services etc.
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5 Trade, economic and tourism promotion "Country advertising"
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India is a priority country in Switzerland’s Foreign Economic Strategy (2006)
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of poverty and sustainable development, as well as the importance to build on more than
45 years of development cooperation in India, SDC in 2006 decided to engage into a new
type of collaboration with India. This new Programme involves a shift from
traditional/classical development cooperation, towards a collaboration based on common
interests, on joint ventures and shared investments in the area of climate change. The
Global Programme on Climate Change in India will focus on promoting climate change
adaptation, climate resilient development, energy efficiency and renewable energy. Local
governance is being supported with a focus on exchange of experiences, lessons and
relevant practices across South Asian nations and Switzerland. Humanitarian aid in India
will have emphasis on disaster preparedness and disaster risk reduction. A key feature of
the reoriented SDC Programme in India will be knowledge management and south-south
cooperation to promote and facilitate the generation, access to, and exchange of
knowledge among development partners in India and beyond, at the regional and
international levels.
• Switzerland Tourism, through its offices in New Delhi and Mumbai, is active in India to
attract greater number of Indian outbound tourists and works in close cooperation with
the Embassy and the Consulate General to increase the interest for Switzerland as a
location for tourism. As per April 1, 2010, ST has a Swiss Director based in Mumbai.The
Swiss-Indian Chamber of Commerce, which has regional chapters in New Delhi, Mumbai
and Bangalore, has consolidated its position as a bilateral business chamber now
present in both the countries. It works closely with the Embassy and the Consulate
General to help strengthen and promote bilateral trade and investment relations and
frequently organizes networking events. The Swiss-Indian Business Forum in Geneva is
also active to bring closer Swiss and Indian business communities, and therefore
organized a business mission for SME to India in October 2009.
5.2 Interest for Switzerland as a location for tourism, education and other
services, potential for development
• Thanks to the Indian film industry (Bollywood), Switzerland is amongst the top
destinations for outbound Indian tourists. With Switzerland joining the Schengen Area,
there could be an increase in the number of Indian tourists coming to Switzerland.
• The number of students interested to study in and apply to Swiss Universities has
increased in the past few years, especially for the two Federal institutes. India has now
become a “priority country” in terms of scholarships granted to Indian students and is now
entitled to 20 scholarships by the Swiss Government. The hotel management schools in
Switzerland continue to enjoy enormous goodwill amongst the Indian students.
• A 'Swissnex' to promote scientific and research cooperation between India and
Switzerland is operational in India.
• In the framework of the Indo-Swiss Joint Research Programme (ISJRP), a total of sixty
two grants have been awarded, of which twenty two were for joint research projects, four
for institutional partnerships projects, and thirty six for student and faculty exchanges. A
significant decision last year was to include in the ISJRP a call for public-private
partnership projects involving the collaboration between academic and industrial
partners.
• The Swiss-Indian Chamber of Commerce and the Federal Office for Professional
Education and Technology have jointly developed a project to implement elements of the
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Swiss vocational training system in India. The VET project has started in the second half
of 2009 in Pune and Bangalore.
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6 Useful internet links
• Government’s agencies
Department of Commerce: http://commerce.nic.in
Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion: http://dipp.nic.in/
Directorate General of Foreign Trade: http://dgftcom.nic.in/exim/2000/default.asp
Ministry of Finance: http://finmin.nic.in
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation: http://mospi.gov.in/
Economic Survey 2009-10: http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2009-10/esmain.htm
Reserve Bank of India: http://www.rbi.org.in/
Planning Commission: http://planningcommission.gov.in
Directory of Government of India: http://goidirectory.nic.in/
• Press Agencies
Press Information Bureau: http://pib.nic.in
• Newspapers
The Economic Times: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com
Business Standard: http://www.business-standard.com
• Chambers of Commerce
Confederation of Indian Industry: http://www.cii.in
Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry: http://www.ficci.com/
Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry: http://www.assocham.org
Annexes
1. Economic structure
2. Main economic data
3. Trade partners
4. Bilateral trade
5. Main investing countries
6. List of main Swiss enterprises in India
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ANNEX 1
Economic Structure
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Nearly 90 percent of the employed labour force is engaged in the unorganised sector.
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ANNEX 2
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ANNEX 3
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Change over April – August 2008
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Change over April – August 2008
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ANNEX 4
Bilateral trade
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ANNEX 5
Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Ministry of Commerce and Industry
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The share is calculated on the basis of cumulative FDI inflows received in Indian Rupees.
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Total figure includes inflows under NRI schemes of Reserve Bank of India, stock swapped, and advances pending issue of shares.
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ANNEX 6
The following link to the website of the Embassy will provide you with a list of Swiss
companies operating, through joint venture or 100% subsidiary, in India as on April 2008.
http://www.eda.admin.ch/etc/medialib/downloads/edactr/ind.Par.0027.File.tmp/Swiss%20co
mpanies%20in%20India%202008.pdf
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