Ehsan:Blue

​Gavin: red
Maryn: pink

● In its 2013 fifth assessment report, the IPCC stated in its summary for
policymakers that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature” from
● 1951 to 2010 was caused by human activity. By “extremely likely”, it meant that
there was between a 95% and 100% probability that more than half of modern
warming was due to humans.
● In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all over the world
under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's a more than 95
percent probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our
planet.
The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per
million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there's a better than 95
percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase
in Earth's temperatures over the past 50 years.
● Many of these gases occur naturally, but human activity is increasing the
concentrations of some of them in the atmosphere, in particular:

carbon dioxide (CO2)

methane
nitrous oxide
fluorinated gases
CO2 is the greenhouse gas most commonly produced by human activities and it
is responsible for 64% of man-made global warming. Its concentration in the
atmosphere is currently 40% higher than it was when industrialisation began.

Other greenhouse gases are emitted in smaller quantities, but they trap heat far
more effectively than CO2, and in some cases are thousands of times stronger.
Methane is responsible for 17% of man-made global warming, nitrous oxide for
6%.

Causes for rising emissions

 Burning coal, oil and gas produces carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide.
Cutting down forests (deforestation). Trees help to regulate the climate by
absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. So when they are cut down, that beneficial
effect is lost and the carbon stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere,
adding to the greenhouse effect.
Increasing livestock farming. Cows and sheep produce large amounts of
methane when they digest their food.
Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions.
Fluorinated gases produce a very strong warming effect, up to 23 000 times
greater than CO2. Thankfully these are released in smaller quantities and are
being phased down by EU regulation.
Global warming
power plants and other industry installations are the main CO2 emitters
TThe current global average temperature is 0.85ºC higher than it was in the late
19th century. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than any
preceding decade since records began in 1850.

The world's leading climate scientists think human activities are almost certainly
the main cause of the warming observed since the middle of the 20th century.

An increase of 2°C compared to the temperature in pre-industrial times is seen

by scientists as the threshold beyond which there is a much higher risk that
dangerous and possibly catastrophic changes in the global environment will
occur. For this reason, the international community has recognised the need to
keep warming below 2°C.
​Human causes
● Humans have caused a expansion of the greenhouse effect

● Activities such as deforestation, land use changes and burning fossil fuels

have increased carbon in the atmosphere which has

● “The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have

raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400

parts per million in the last 150 years. The panel also concluded there's a
 better than 95 percent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases

such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of

the observed increaseg in Earth's temperatures over the past 50

years.”(NASA)

● “Simple chemistry – when we burn carbon-based materials, carbon dioxide

(CO2) is emitted (research beginning in 1900s)

Basic accounting of what we burn, and therefore how much CO2 we emit

(data collection beginning in 1970s)

Measuring CO2 in the atmosphere and trapped in ice to find that it's

increasing, with levels higher than anything we've seen in hundreds of

thousands of years (measurements beginning in 1950s)

Chemical analysis of the atmospheric CO2 that reveals the increase is

coming from burning fossil fuels (research beginning in 1950s)

Basic physics that shows us that CO2 absorbs heat (research beginning in

1820s)

Monitoring climate conditions to find that recent warming of the Earth is

correlated to and follows rising CO2 emissions (research beginning in

1930s)

Ruling out natural factors that can influence climate like the sun and ocean

cycles (research beginning in 1830s)

 Employing computer models to run experiments of natural versus

human-influenced simulations of Earth (research beginning in 1960s)

Consensus among scientists who consider all previous lines of evidence

and make their own conclusions (polling beginning in 1990s)”(NDF)

● “+Black lines show observed average temperatures

Blue shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 19 computer simulations

from 5 climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity

and volcanoes.

Red shaded bands show the 5–95% range for 58 simulations from 14

climate models using both natural and human

forcings.”(​https://climatechangeconnection.org/science/are-​yu

● Natural causes

● The Milankovitch Theory explains the 3 cyclical changes in Earth’s orbit

and tilt that cause the climate fluctuations that occur over tens of

thousands of years to hundreds of thousands of years. You have learned

about these orbital changes in the Temperature over Time module. These

fluctuations include changes in the shape (eccentricity) of Earth’s orbit

every ~100,000 years, the tilt (obliquity) of Earth’s axis every ~41,000

years, and the wobbling (precession) of Earth’s axis about ~23,000 years.

Milankovitch proposed that glacial periods began when the three cycles
 align to favor an extended period of more solar radiation in the winter and

less solar radiation in the summer at a latitude of 65°N. These conditions

for the northern latitudes favor somewhat higher temperatures, but also

more water vapor in the air – causing more snowfall. A relatively

cool summer for the northern latitudes favors less melting of winter snow

and glacier formation.

● Abstract - We test for causality between radiative forcing and temperature

using multivariate time series models and Granger causality tests that are

robust to the non-stationary (trending) nature of global climate data. We

find that both natural and anthropogenic forcings cause temperature

change and also that temperature causes greenhouse gas concentration

changes. Although the effects of greenhouse gases and volcanic forcing

are robust across model specifications, we cannot detect any effect of

black carbon on temperature, the effect of changes in solar irradiance is

weak, and the effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be only around

half that usually attributed to them.

● On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the

last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the

concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

(​https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/​)
● In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, a group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from countries all

over the world under the auspices of the United Nations, concluded there's

a more than 95 percent probability that human activities over the past 50

years have warmed our planet (​https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/​)

● The panel also concluded there's a better than 95 percent probability that

human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and

nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earth's

temperatures over the past 50 years (​https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/​) ​.