Nolan Foley

Molly McIntyre
Alix straumins
Climate Change Research
Climate change- ​A change in global or regional climate patterns.(BBC.News)
The greenhouse effect ​is a natural process that warms the Earth’s surface. When the
Sun’s energy reaches the Earth’s atmosphere, some of it is reflected back to space
and the rest is absorbed and re-radiated by greenhouse
gases.(environment.gov)The primary cause of climate change is the burning of fossil
fuels, such as oil and coal, which emits greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere—primarily carbon dioxide. Other human activities, such as agriculture
and deforestation, also contribute to the proliferation of greenhouse gases that
cause climate change.(Nasa.gov)

Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of

heat-trapping greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and
land-use change, are primarily responsible for climate change.(GlobalChange.gov)
(TakePart.com) Earth’s global surface temperature in 2018 was the fourth
warmest since 1880, according to independent analysis by NASA and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)Certain gases in the atmosphere
block heat from escaping. Long-lived gases that remain semi-permanently in the
atmosphere and do not respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature
are described as "forcing" climate change. Gases, such as water vapor, which
respond physically or chemically to changes in temperature are seen as "feedbacks."
A

The 3 hottest years on record were 2016, 2017, and 2018(NASA)

The average global temp has risen about 2 degrees since the 1880’s(NASA)
The global temps in 2018 were 1.42 degrees above the 20th century (NASA)

(Aspen Global Climate Institute)

Population growth and distribution, especially increased population density and urbanization,
increases vulnerability to disasters. ... The growth of coastal populations, for instance, raises
important concerns about increased human exposure to coastal flooding, hurricanes, and
tsunamis.

The sun causes global change

Humanity is continuously polluting indispensable resources like air, water, and soil which
requires millions of years to replenish. The effects of overpopulation are quite severe, with one
of the most severe being the degradation of the environment.Humans require space, and lots of
it whether it is for farmland, or industries which also takes up tons of space. An increased
population results in more clear-cutting, resulting in severely damaged ecosystems. Without
enough trees to filter the air, CO₂ levels increase which carries the potential to damage every
single organism on Earth.

Milankovitch was able to formulate a comprehensive mathematical model that calculated

latitudinal differences in insolation and the corresponding surface temperature for 600,000 years
prior to the year 1800. He then attempted to correlate these changes with the growth and retreat
of the Ice Ages. To do this, Milankovitch assumed that radiation changes in some latitudes and
seasons are more important to ice sheet growth and decay than those in others. Then, at the
suggestion of German Climatologist Vladimir Koppen, he chose summer insolation at 65
degrees North as the most important latitude and season to model, reasoning that great ice
sheets grew near this latitude and that cooler summers might reduce summer snowmelt, leading
to a positive annual snow budget and ice sheet growth.
(Earth Observitory)

As global temperatures increase, Earth's weather patterns will drastically change. While some
areas will experience longer growing seasons, others will become barren wastelands as water
will deplete in vast areas, turning once floral regions into deserts.

The oldest ongoing instrumental record of temperature in the world is the Central England
Temperature record, started in 1659(BBC)

Every year over 8 millions tons of garbage dumped into the ocean. Not only is garbage
introduced into the oceans, but also the excessive amounts of fertilizer that finds its way into the
ocean through rains, floods, winds, or dumped in excess right into the largest producer of
oxygen we have.
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can alter the earth's topography, while flooding and drought
have a great impact on life forms. Often, hazards become disasters that cause human and
economic losses, and the magnitude of these losses is increasing

Greenhouse Effect-​ the trapping of the sun's warmth in a planet's lower atmosphere, due to the
greater transparency of the atmosphere to visible radiation from the sun than to infrared
radiation emitted from the planet's surface.( dictionary.com)

Preindustrial Times
In preindustrial times, the atmosphere contained 578 Pg (Pg=Petagrams, 1 Pg=1 billion metric
tons) of carbon. The modern atmosphere contains at least 766 Pg of carbon. To compare, the
global oceans contain roughly 38,000-40,000 Pg of carbon! The oceans contain roughly 50
times more carbon than the atmosphere, meaning the ocean is the driver of the global carbon
cycle, not the atmosphere. This dynamic is important to remember when considering modern
climate change. (Marine Conservation Institute)

Methane Gas Impact

Methane gas is more than 100 times more potent at trapping energy than carbon dioxide (CO2),
the principal contributor to man-made climate change. When considering its conversion to
carbon dioxide over time its impact on an integrated weight basis is 84 times more potent after
20 years and 28 times more potent after 100 years.(Environmental Defense Fund)

The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has reached a record high relative to more than
the past half-million years, and has done so at an exceptionally fast rate. Current global
temperatures are warmer than they have ever been during at least the past five centuries,
probably even for more than a millennium. (European Environmental Agency)

The Little Ice Age

During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar
activity known as the Maunder Minimum. The Spörer Minimum has also been identified with a
significant cooling period between 1460 and 1550
The Little Ice Age
Originally the phrase was used to refer to Earth’s most recent 4,000-year period of
mountain-glacier expansion and retreat. Today some scientists use it to distinguish only the
period 1500–1850, when mountain glaciers expanded to their greatest extent, but the phrase is
more commonly applied to the broader period 1300–1850. The Little Ice Age followed the
Medieval Warming Period (roughly 900–1300 CE) and preceded the present period of warming
that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
There are several causes of recent climate change, but all have something in common –
people. Recent warming is a side effect of many things that people do – like driving cars,
heating homes, running factories, and transforming forests into towns. Our landfills and farm
animals are to blame for recent climate change too
Changes in the way land is used also have an impact on climate. For example, when trees and
other plants are cut down to make way for new buildings or parking lots, climate warms because
less carbon dioxide is taken out of the atmosphere without the plants. Plus, the asphalt and
buildings tend to hold onto more heat than forests and fields, so when warmed by the Sun, they
stay warm for some time.
Without humans, climate is affected mainly by changes in the Sun and volcanic eruptions.
Under those conditions, the models found that Earth would have cooled slightly over the past
century, which doesn’t match what actually happened.
With humans, climate is affected by the activities of humans as well as the Sun and volcanoes.
Once the models included the activities of humans that caused an increase in the amount of
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, they pretty accurately predicted what happened to
Earth’s temperature over the past century.
The global drivers that determine the Earth's climate are: (1) solar radiation as a dominant
energy supplier to the earth, (2) the Earth's outgassing as a major supplier of gasses to the
hydrosphere and atmosphere, and, (3) possibly microbial activities generating and consuming
atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere

The most extensive melting of polar ice caps occurred in 2005. The second most extensive
melting of polar ice caps occurred in 2016. The sunspot cycle, the major one, has a period of
11.2 years. This suggests that humans are a secondary cause, not the primary one.
(Advancing the Science of Climate Change)

The traditional theory of global warming assumes that release of carbon dioxide into
atmosphere (partially as a result of utilization of fossil fuels) leads to an increase in atmospheric
temperature because the molecules of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) absorb the infrared
radiation from the Earth's surface. This statement is based on the Arrhenius hypothesis
(Arrhenius, 1886) which was never verified.
Carbon Dioxide
a colorless, odorless gas produced by burning carbon and organic compounds and by
respiration. It is naturally present in air (about 0.03 percent) and is absorbed by plants in
photosynthesis.( dictionary.com)