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1. Could you provide an assessment of reports that China has applied diplomatic
pressure on Vietnam not to raise the South China Sea at the forthcoming 17th ASEAN
and Related Summits?
ANSWER: If Vietnam does not raise the South China Sea issue at the 17th ASEAN and
related summits, in one form or another, it will be setting a precedent. Not raising
the issue does not resolve conflicting sovereignty claims Not raising the issue in
return for Chinese moderation on the treatment on Vietnamese fishermen is only a
temporary solution. Besides, the fishing season is from May to August. Vietnam must
not directly confront China. Vietnam needs to keep ASEAN on its side and ensure
that the other claimant states – the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – all agree on a
course of diplomatic action. China is adept at taking a long‐term view, playing on
differences not only within ASEAN but within each country, and taking opportunistic
action to advance China’s claims.
2. Why is China continuing to put pressure on Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam is the only claimant state out of four in ASEAN that has been able
to mount an effective diplomatic challenge to China. China is attempting to single
out Vietnam in order to influence if not intimidate the other ASEAN claimant states.
China seeks acknowledgement of its status as a major power in the Asia‐Pacific to
which smaller countries should give difference. This was clearly stated by the
Chinese Foreign Minister at the 17th ARF meeting when he looked directly at
Singapore’s Foreign Minister and told him that China was a big country and other
countries were small.
3. Should Vietnam raise the South China Sea this time?
ANSWER: Both Vietnam and the other claimant states must continually raise the
South China Sea issue, otherwise they will be conceding ground to China. The
Philippines raised the South China Sea issue at the ASEAN Plus 1 meeting with China
in July prior to the 17th ARF. It is important that China not underestimate regional
concerns. The key is the manner in which Vietnam and other countries approach this
issue. China agreed to the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea
but never implemented any of its provision. ASEAN and Vietnam should continually
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press China to join in cooperative confidence building measures. Further,
government leaders should press their Chinese counterpart to set a deadline for
action by the working group to implement the DOC. The argument should be that
this would be a “win‐win” situation for all.
4. Do you think the US will continue to raise the issue of South China Sea this time?
ANSWER: The United States will continue to assert the rights of maritime states to
freedom and safety of navigation in the “commons” of the South China Sea. The
United States will argue that territorial disputes should be based on international law
where sovereignty over land gives rise to sovereignty over sea and oppose China’s
ambit claims to the entire South China Sea on historical grounds. The US will respond
to regional concerns that no country should use force or the threat of force to
resolve territorial disputes. This policy is not new, it has been advocated for well
over a decade. The US has also added freedom of lawful commerce. This is aimed at
preventing further Chinese behind‐the‐scenes pressures on American companies
wishing to do business with Vietnam in developing the recourses of Vietnam’s
Exclusive Economic Zone. But the US will be circumspect in how it delivers its
message. Specific mention of the South China Sea was dropped from the US draft of
the 2nd US‐ASEAN leaders meeting in deference to concerns by some ASEAN states.
5. China has also warned Vietnam not to get too close to the US and threatened that
China would take action if Vietnam and the US become strategic partners. Your
comment.
ANSWER: This is standard operating procedure for China. China continually threatens
and cajoles countries not to develop relations with third countries. Beijing always
claims that such cooperation is aimed at China. China delivers this message through
its diplomats and targets this message to play on what China perceives as differences
in the leadership of the target country.
6. What kinds of actions can China take in this case, in your opinion?
ANSWER: China’s recent pressures on Japan are instructive. China is most likely to
apply pressure at the highest levels through party‐to‐party and state‐to‐state levels.
China will offer both carrots and sticks. Can choose to address long‐standing
economic concerns or China can use its economic muscle to pressure Vietnam by
delaying or obstructing cooperative arrangements that Vietnam favours in order to
apply pressure on Vietnam. And China can take more aggressive action in the South
China Sea at a time of its own choosing. And China can apply pressure on other
ASEAN states warning them that support for Vietnam may cost them. In other
words, China will try to portray Vietnam as the cause of tensions in order to isolate
it. Finally, China can use its global political influence to thwart or undermine
initiatives that Vietnam initiates or supports.