Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour.

2016, 1(2), 132-139

Probabilistic estimation of passing the Pharmacist licensure examination

Exequiel R. Gono Jr.

College of Arts and Sciences, San Pedro College
Email: exequielgono@yahoo.com.ph

Date received: 26 April 2016

Date accepted: 3 September 2016
Date published: 16 December 2016

ABSTRACT

This paper employed a simulation model to determine the probability of passing the Pharmacist
licensure exam. The predictors of the study were the General Weighted Average and the results of the
subject areas of the mock board examination. The average performance in the licensure examination
was 72.29%. Pharmaceutics got the lowest results in mock board examination while Practice of
Pharmacy got the highest results. The threshold of GWA is 85 and 72 for all subject areas. The graded
weighted average significantly predict the success in the Pharmacist Licensure Examination (p<0.01)
and Pharmaceutics and Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics gives a significant predictions to the success
of the licensure examination (p<0.10). It was also found out that Pharmaceutics and Quality
Assurance/Quality Control pull down the chance of passing the licensure exam.

Keywords: Pharmacist Licensure Exam, Maximum Likelihood.

INTRODUCTION

The most important assets in any colleges and universities in the Philippines are the students. The
performance of the students is an important role in generating graduates who are soon leaders and
workers who are responsive to the demands of time and responsible for the sustainability and
development of the country. In applying the job, one of the major requirements of the employer is to
scrutinize the licensure examination of the applicant. Thus, it is an obligation of the institution to
produce graduates who have better chance of passing the government licensure examination.

Before a pharmacy graduate can practice his or her profession, he or she needs to pass the licensure
examination. The examination is conducted by the Professional Regulation Commission (PRC) under
the supervision of the Board of Pharmacy. It is designed to assess the competency of each candidate
to practice pharmacy which includes Pharmacy as science (Pharmaceutical Microbiology, Drug
Delivery Systems, Manufacturing Pharmacy, Pharmaceutical Biochemistry, Pharmacognosy and
Philippine Medicinal Plants) and pharmacy as Practice (Pharmaceutical Calculations, Hospital
Pharmacy, Dispensing and Counseling, Jurisprudence and Ethics, Marketing, and Pharmaceutical
Administration and Management). The examination is based upon an analysis of pharmacist practice
functions determined by the Board of Pharmacy through a statewide survey of practicing pharmacists
(Republic Act 5921, 1969).

The pharmacist licensure examination of the Philippines is waning. On the recent licensure
examination for pharmacist, the Professional Regulation Commission (PRC) announces that 1,487 out
of 2,710 or 54.87% passed the Pharmacist Licensure Examination given by the Board of Pharmacy on
January 2016 and 2,004 out of 3,142 or 63.78 % passed the Pharmacist Licensure Examination on
July 2015 and 1,292 out of 2,295 or 56.30 % passed the Pharmacist Licensure Examination on
January 2015. In San Pedro College, the Professional Regulation Commission (PRC) reported 82.76
% passing rate for the January 2016 licensure examination, 87.76% passing rate for July 2015 and
64.47% passing rate for January 2015 licensure exam and 79.17 % passing rate for July 2014 (PRC,
2016).

132
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

Patricia Licuanan, chair of Commission on Higher Education (CHED), admitted serious concern over
the PRC’s observation that while the number of takers of the examinations has been increasing in the
past years, the performance of graduates in the various licensure exams was worsening, in view of the
increasing number of flunkers among examinees. The CHED were investigating and looking to the
track record of the different schools that got the low score of the board examination (Ronda, 2010).

Researchers reported that review classes and other preparation methods can significantly improve and
boast the confidence of the students in passing the licensure exam (Burkiewicz & Fjortoft, 2002). An
investigation was conducted to determine the relationship between academic performance, admission
characteristics, student employment experiences, and successful North American Pharmacist
Licensure Examination (NAPLEX) completion (Hill-Besinque, Wong, Louie & Rho, 2000; Birdwell
& Escovitz, 1990; Lowenthal, 1981; Manasse, Purohit, Blake & Barnes, 1980; House & Pevonka,
1980; Lowenthal & Wergin, 1979). At Oklahoma College of Medicine, improvement of passing rate
was observed among medical student after taking the NMBE Part I found a school sponsored review
course (Hyde, Krug & Dearner, 1985).

Researchers found a significant relationship of academic performance and Pharmacy Board

Examination for small and private schools while low correlation for large and state universities
(Manasse, Purohit, Blake & Barnes, 1980). Recent studies (Ong, Palompon & Bañico, 2012; Navarro,
Vitamog, Tierra & Gonzales, 2011; Neri, 2009) confirmed a positive high correlation of academic
performance and Nursing Licensure exam rate and high correlation on Scholastics Aptitude Scores
towards the success of in passing the examination. Various studies were conducted on the factors that
would significantly predict the success of the Licensure examination. Academic performance in terms
of General Weighted Average of the students, performance in the mock board review and admission
results were the factors to be considered as pillars in determining the success in passing the
examination.

General Weighted Average of the students, performance in the mock board review and admission
results were used to predict nursing licensure examinations (Truman, 2012), licensure examinations
for dentistry, physical therapy examinations (Utzman, Riddle & Jewell, 2007; Galleher, Rundquist,
Barker & Chang, 2012), pharmacist licensure examination (Hill-Bensinque, Wong, Louie & Rho,
2000; McCall, MacLaughlin, Fike & Ruiz, 2007), medical licensing examinations (Donnon, Paolucci
& Violato, 2007), physician assistant certifying examination (Oakes, MacLaren, Gorie, Finstuen,
1999), and athletic trainer’s certification examination (Harrelson, Gallaspy, Knight & Leaver-Dunn,
1997).

Mock board exam results and academic performance was found predictors of success in board
examination were observe by Filipino researchers in the field of Medical Technologist Licensure
Examination (Pasia, Garzon & Bauyot, 2012), nursing examinations (Ong, Palompon & Bañico,
2012; Navarro, Vitamog, Tierra & Gonzales, 2011; Neri, 2009), Licensure Examination for Teachers
(Hirmosisima, 2005; Pascua & Navalta, 2011).

Thus, the above scenario prompted the researcher to study factors that predict passing the licensure
examination for pharmacist and determine the certain percentage of passing the board examination
which is very essential as prerequisites to practice pharmacist as a professions. It will determine
further the average rating of the licensure examination.

METHOD

This study utilized the descriptive and prediction-causation research design, such that the intention
was to use variables and develop an empirical model to predict licensure examination outcome.
Prediction-causation method of research will be employed in this study. Prediction refers to the effect
of one variable on other variable while causation means the change in values of the dependent
variable to a unit of change in the independent variable (Tamayo, Gevera, & Aguilar, 2012). The
maximum likehood of estimation of conditional logit was employed (Ohlson, 1980) to obtain the

133
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

maximum outcome (and ordinary least square to approximate estimates (White, 1980) of the board
exam outcome (Buizza, 2008). The variable that were used as factors to determine the outcome o the
success in the licensure examination were General Weighted Average (GWA), mock board grade
(Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Pharmacognosy, Practice of Pharmacy, Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics,
Pharmaceutics, and Quality Assurance/Quality Control) and students score in the licensure
examination which covers from 2013-2014.

Model description
In this study the researcher used the linear regression and logistic regression to predict the maximum
likehood of the occurrence of the event. In the logistic regression model, the response variable is
binary or dichotomous (passed or failed) (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989). The dependent variable of the
study is the success of the result of the licensure examination which is dichotomous in nature.
The logistic model used is P(Passed)=ߨ(x)= e g(x)
1+ e g(x)

and thus P(Failed) = 1− P(Passed)= 1− ߨ(x) = 1 1

1+ e g(x)

where g(x) stands for the function of the independent variables:

g (x) = ߚ0 + ߚ 1 x 1+ ߚ 2 x 2 + … + ߚ n x n

Logistic regression determines the coefficients that make the observed outcome (passed or failed)
most likely using the maximum-likelihood technique. It examines relationship of independent
variables to a dichotomous outcome (Peng, Lee, & Ingersoll, 2002). It assumes a direct relationship
between the grade indicators. It is assumed that the probability of passing increases as the grade
indicators increase until a threshold for passing is reached equal to probability of 1, thus the
probability of passing the board exam is assumed to take a shaped S Shape function. The independent
variables could be continuous or dichotomous. For the latter, there should be special coding with the
use of dummy variables. The linear regression was used to predict the score in the board exam given
values of the variables that were found to show influence in the probability of passing the exam.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The average rating of the Pharmacist Licensure Examination of San Pedro College was 72.94% from
2013 to 2014. It can be observed that the highest rating was on the June 2014 (79.17%) and the lowest
rating was observed on January 2015 (64.47%). The rating was increased from the examination period
of June 2013 to June 2014 and it went down to January 2015.

The performance of San Pedro College is above the given standard set by CHED. The low
performance rating of schools is a situation where institutions whose graduates failed those to score
within the already low national passing percentage set in the 30 percentile level for several years
(Ronda, 2010).

Table 1. Number of passers and flunkers per exam period

Exam Period Passers Flunkers % of
Passing
June 2013 68 25 73.12
January 2014 63 21 75.00
June 2014 76 20 79.17
January 2015 49 27 64.47
Average Passing 72.94
Rate

134
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

To prepare the students in taking the licensure examination, a review class was conducted and
students were given a mock board examination. Depicted in Table 2 is the Mock board rating among
Pharmacy students from the academic year 2013 – 2014. The Pharmaceutics got the lowest mean of
74.24 with the minimum and maximum score of 49.60 and 92.20 respectively. The Practice of
Pharmacy obtained the highest mean of 80.80 with the minimum score of 59.20 and the maximum
score of 91.60. It was further observed that the Pharmaceutical Chemistry got the mean score of
79.79; Pharmacognosy obtained the mean score of 77.13; Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics had the
mean score of 76.95; and Quality Assurance/Quality Control got the mean score of 78.02.

Table 2. Mock board rating among Pharmacy students from 2013 – 2014
Area of Minimu Maximu Mea
Competency N m m n SD
Pharmaceutical 22 56.20 94.60 79.5 6.1
Chemistry (M1) 5 9 3
Pharmacognosy 22 58.00 95.80 77.1 7.1
(M2) 5 3 6
Practice of 22 59.20 91.60 80.8 6.8
Pharmacy (M3) 5 0 1
Pharmacology- 22 59.20 88.00 76.9 5.1
Pharmacokinetics 5 5 3
(M4)
Pharmaceutics 22 49.60 92.20 74.2 14.
(M5) 5 4 04
Quality 22 58.60 91.60 78.0 7.7
Assurance/Quality 5 2 9
Control (M6)

Moreover, shown in Table 3 is the General Weighted Average and Board Examination Results among
Pharmacy students. The mean GWA of the Pharmacy student was 86.11 with the minimum grade of
75 and the maximum grade of 94. The Board Examination Rating had a mean of 79.23 with the
minimum rating of 48.15 and maximum rating of 93.95.

Table 3. GWA and Board Examination Results among Pharmacy students

Area of
Competency N Minimum Maximum Mean SD
GWA 225 75.00 94.00 86.11 2.76
Board Exam 225 48.15 93.95 79.23 6.22
Rating

An investigation on the strength of influence of the predictors towards passing the licensure exam; the
GWA had the strongest influence, followed by the Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics, Pharmaceutical
Chemistry, Practice of Pharmacy and Pharmacognosy while the Pharmaceutics and Quality
Assurance/Quality Control were the areas that pull down the chance of passing the licensure exam.

Table 4. Empirical test to determine strength of relationship of the

Modules in Pharmacy and GWA towards passing the board exam
Indicators Coefficients SE Wald p Exp(B)
value
Constant -36.656 8.343 19.30 0.00
Pharmaceutical .078 .078 1.00 .317 1.081

135
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

Chemistry
Pharmacognosy .020 .076 0.07 .795 1.020
Practice of .029 .074 0.151 .698 1.029
Pharmacy
Pharmacology- .156 .092 2.84 .092 1.168
Pharmacokinetics
Pharmaceutics -.075 .044 2.93 .087 .927
Quality -.020 .075 0.08 .784 .980
Assurance/Quality
Control
GWA .281 .106 7.07 .008 1.325

The GWA (32.5 %), Pharmaceutical (8.1%), Chemistry Pharmacognosy (2%), Practice of Pharmacy
(2.9%), Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics (16.8 %) are the areas that give impact to the success in the
licensure exam and Pharmaceutics (7.3 %) while Quality Assurance/Quality Control (2%) are the
areas that hinder the takers to pass the licensure exam.

The graded weighted average significantly predict the success in the Pharmacist Licensure
Examination (p<0.01). Also the Pharmaceutics and Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics gives a
significant predictions to the success of the licensure examination (p<0.10). The finding is in
conformity with the study Herrara and Blair (2015) that the probability that a student will successfully
complete a nursing program and ultimately pass the National Council Licensure Examination-
Registered Nurse (NCLEX-RN) is predicted by the academic performance and system which was
prepared for these programs.

Table 5. Simulation of Module and GWA as indicators to determine probability of passing

G
Con M M M M M M W Prob Predic
Simulati
stant 1 2 3 4 5 6 A of ted
ons
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 .92 .98 1.3 Succ Ratin
.00
81 20 29 68 7 0 25 ess g
GWA=8
5;
m1=80;
m2=80; 86. 81. 82. 93. 74. 78. 11
0.00 0.998 78.13
m3=80; 47 58 34 47 19 38 2.6
m4=80;
m5=80;
m6=80

GWA=8
5
m1=70;
75. 71. 72. 81. 64. 68. 11
m2=70; 0.0 0.998 74.10
66 39 05 78 92 58 2.6
m3=7;
m4=70;
m5=70;
m6=70

GWA=9 10
97. 91. 92. 83. 88. 12
5; 0.0 5.1 0.999 92.62
27 78 63 47 18 5.8
m1=90; 5
m2=90;

136
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

m3=90;
m4=90;
m5=90;
m6=90

GWA=9
0;
m1=90; 10
97. 91. 92. 83. 88. 11
m2=90; 0.0 5.1 0.999 87.40
27 78 63 47 18 9.2
m3=90; 5
m4=90;
m5=90;
m6=90

GWA=
85,
m2=72; 77. 73. 74. 84. 66. 70. 11
0.0 0.998 74.91
m3=72; 82 4 11 12 77 54 2.6
m4=72;
m5=72;
m6= 72

A simulation was conducted to determine the baseline of each module and GWA. Table 5 shows the
simulation of six modules and GWA as indicators to determine probability of passing. The simulation
of rating was grounded on the Republic Act No. 5921, article 3 section 20 that in order to pass the
examination, a candidate must obtained on the basis of one hundred percent a general average of 75%
or over in both theoretical and practical examination with no rating of 50% in more than two subjects
in the theoretical examinations.

The simulation score column would be indicative of the target score in the board and the predicted
score column would represent the overall rating. In order for the student to pass the licensure exam,
given that the student has GWA of 85, he needs to have a score of more than 72 in all areas for him to
pass the examination.

CONCLUSION

The average performance in the licensure examination was 72.29%. Pharmaceutics got the lowest
results in mock board examination while Practice of Pharmacy got the highest results. The threshold
of GWA is 85 and 72 for all subject areas After the empirical analysis of the different modules in the
mock board exam and GWA, it was found out in the model developed, the variables predict the
success in passing the licensure exam are the General Weighted Average, Pharmaceutical Chemistry,
Pharmacognosy, Practice of Pharmacy, Pharmacology-Pharmacokinetics, Pharmaceutics, and Quality
Assurance/Quality Control. The GWA gives the strongest probability in passing the licensure exam.
It can also be concluded that the Pharmaceutics and Quality Assurance/Quality Control pull down the
chance of passing the licensure exam.

137
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

REFERENCES

Buizza, R. (2008). The value of probabilistic prediction. Atmospheric Science Letters, 9(2), 36-42.

Galleher, C., Rundquist, P., Barker, D. & Chang, W. (2012). Determining cognitive and non-cognitive
predictors of success on national Physical Therapy Examination. The Internet Journal of Allied
Health Sciences and Practice 10 . Retrieved on June 27, 2013, from http://ijahsp.nova.edu

Harrelson, G., Gallaspy, J., Knight, H. & Leaver-Dunn, D. (1997). Predictors of success on the
NATABOC Certification Examination. Journal of Athletic Training 32 (4). Retrieved on June 24,
2013, from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1320349/

Hermosisima, M.V. (2005). The Philippine Normal University (PNU) graduate’s performance in the
licensure examination for teachers (2000 – 2002): Approximating sources of variance. The Normal
Lights 1 (2).

Hosmer, D.W., Lemeshow, S., 1989. Applied Logistic Regression. Wiley, New York.

Herrera and Blair (2015). Predicting success in nursing programs. Arizona State University Volume
28, Research in Higher Education Journal http://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/152164.pdf

Hill-Besinque K, Wong WY, Louie ST, Rho JP (2000). Predictors of success rate in the California
State Board of Pharmacy Licensure Examination. American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education,
64:50–3.

House ML, Pevonka MP (1980). Analysis of licensure examination performance in relation to prior
internship experience. American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education, 44, 134–138.

Hyde, R.M., Krug, R.S. and Dearner, J.F.(1985). Performance on MBME Part 1 Examination in
relation to policies regarding use of test, J. Med. Educ., 60, (June 1985).

Lowenthal W (1981). Relationships among student admission characteristics, licensing examinations

and academic performance: comparison of three graduating classes. Am. J. Pharm. Educ. 45, 132–9.

Manasse HR, Purohit AA, Blake MI, Barnes BA (1980). Relationship between collegiate performance
and performance on NABPLEX. Am. J. Pharm. Educ. 44, 1–5
.
Manasse, H.R., Purohit, A.A., Blake, M.I. and Barnes, B.A (1980). “Relationship between collegiate
performance and performance on NABPLEX,” Am. J. Pharm. Educ., 44, 1-5.

McCall, K., MacLaughlin, E., Fike, D. & Ruiz, B. (2007). Preadmission predictors of PharmD
graduates’ performance on the NAPLEX. American Journal of Pharmaceutical Education 71 (1) doi:
10.5688/aj710105

Navarro, R., Vitamog, A., Tierra, R.J. & Gonzales, D.M. (2011). Predictors of nursing board
examination performance. JPAIR Multidisciplinary Journal 6 (1). doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.7719/jpair.v6i1.147

Neri, D.L. (2009). Intellective Variables as Predictors to Nursing Licensure Examination

Performance. Liceo Journal of Higher Education Research 6 (1). Retrieved on June 26, 2013, from
http://www.eisrjc.com/documents/Intellective
_Variables_as_Predictors_to_Nursing_Licensure_Examination_Performance_1325761219.pdf

138
Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour. 2016, 1(2), 132-139

Oakes, D. L., MacLaren, L. M., Gorie, C. T., & Finstuen, K. (1999). Predicting success on the
physician assistant national certifying examination. Perspective on Physician Assistant Education,
10(2), 63-69.

Ohlson JA (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of
Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.

Ong, M., Palompon, D. & Bañico, L. (2012). Predictors of nurses’ licensure examination performance
of graduates in Cebu Normal University, Philippines. Asian Journal of Health 2. doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.7828/ajoh.v2i1.122

Pascua, J.B. & Navalta, J.D. (2011). Determinants of L.E.T. performance of the teacher education
graduates in a state university. JPAIR Multidisciplinary Journal 6. doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.7719/jpair.v6i1.138

Pasia, J., Garzon, M. & Bauyot, M. (2012. Determinants of Performance of Graduates in the Medical
Technologist Licensure Examination. Asian Journal of Health 2 (1). doi:
http://dx.doi.org/10.7828/ajoh.v2i1.116

Philippine Regulation Commission (2016). Licensure Examination Results for Pharmacist. Retrieve
from http://prcboardresults.com/

Peng, C. Y. J., Lee, K. L., & Ingersoll, G. M. (2002). An introduction to logistic regression analysis
and reporting. The Journal of Educational Research, 96 (1), 3-14.

Ronda, R.A. (2010). New CHED chairman admits low passing rate in board exams. Philstar.
Retrieved from http://www.philstar.com/headlines/607681/new-ched-chairman-admits-low-passing-
rate-board-exams

REPUBLIC ACT No. 5921 (1969). AN act regulating the practice of pharmacy and setting standards
of pharmaceutical education in the Philippines and for other purposes. Arellano Law Foundation.

Tamayo, Gevera and Aguilar (2012). A Probabilistic Estimation of Passing the Licensure
Examination for Accountant. College of Accounting Education University of Mindanao

Truman, J. (2012). Identifying Predictors of National Council Licensure Examination for Registered
Nurses (NCLEX-RN) Success in an Associate Degree Nursing Program. International Journal of
Applied Science and Technology 2 (7). Retrieved on June 24, 2013, from
http://www.ijastnet.com/update/index.php/archives?id=305

Utzman, R., Riddle D. & Jewell, D. (2007). Use of demographic and quantitative admissions data to
predict performance on the national physical therapy examination. Physical Therapy 87:1181-1193.
doi: 10.2522/ptj.20060222

White, H. (1980). Using least squares to approximate unknown regression functions. International
Economic Review 21(1), 149-170.

Younger, J.B. and Grap, M.J. (1992), “An Epidemiologic Study of NCLEX,” Nurse Educator, 17, No.
2,

139