Mutually Exclusive Events

Example:

What is the probability of a die showing a 2 or a 5?

Solution:

Example:

The probabilities of three teams A, B and C winning a badminton competition

are

Calculate the probability that

a) either A or B will win
b) either A or B or C will win
c) none of these teams will win
d) neither A nor B will win
Solution:
Example 1:
A die is rolled. Let us define event E1 as the set of possible outcomes where
the number on the face of the die is even and event E2 as the set of possible
outcomes where the number on the face of the die is odd. Are event1 E1 and
E2 mutually exclusive?

Solution to Example 1:

 We first list the elements of E1 and E2.

E1 = {2,4,6}
E2 = {1,3,5}
 E1 and E2 have no elements in common and therefore are mutually
exclusive.
 Another way to answer the above question is to note is that if you roll a
die, it shows a number that is either even or odd but no number will be
even and odd at the same time. Hence E1 and E2 cannot occur at the
same time and are therfore mutually exclusive.

Example 2:
A die is rolled. Event E1 is the set of possible outcomes where the number on
the face of the die is even and event E2 as the set of possible outcomes
where the number on the face of the die is greater than 3. Are event E1 and
E2 mutually exclusive?
Solution to Example 2:

 The subsets E1 and E2 are given by.

 E1 = {2,4,6}
E2 = {4,5,6}
 Subsets E1 and E2 have 2 elements in common. If the die shows 4 or 6,
both events E1 and E2 will have occured at the same time and therefore
E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive.

Example 3:
A card is drawn from a deck of cards. Events E1, E2, E3, E4 and E5 are
defined as follows:
E1: Getting an 8
E2: Getting a king
E3: Getting a face card
E4: Getting an ace
E5: Getting a heart
a) Are events E1 and E2 mutually exclusive?
b) Are events E2 and E3 mutually exclusive?
c) Are events E3 and E4 mutually exclusive?
d) Are events E4 and E5 mutually exclusive?
e) Are events E5 and E1 mutually exclusive?

Solution to Example 3:

 The sample space of the experiment "card is drawn from a deck of

cards" is shown below.
  a) E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive because there are no cards with
an 8 and a king together.
 b) E2 and E3 are not mutually exclusive because a king is a face
card.
 c) E3 and E4 are mutually exclusive because an ace is not a face
card.
 d) E4 and E5 are not mutually exclusive because there is one card
that has an ace and a heart.
 d) E5 and E1 are not mutually exclusive because there is one card
that is an 8 of heart.

Example 4: Two dice are rolled. We define events E1, E2, E3 and E4 as
follows
E1: Getting a sum equal to 10
E2: Getting a double
E3: Getting a sum less than 4
E4: Getting a sum less to 7
a) Are events E1 and E2 mutually exclusive?
b) Are events E2 and E3 mutually exclusive?
c) Are events E3 and E4 mutually exclusive?
d) Are events E4 and E1 mutually exclusive?

Solution to Example 4:


The sample space of the experiment "2 dice" is shown below.
  a) E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive because outcome (5,5) is a
double and also gives a sum of 10. The two events may occur at the
same time.
 b) E2 and E3 are not mutually exclusive because outcome (1,1) is a
double and gives a sum of 2 and is less than 4. The two events E2 and
E3 may occur at the same time.
 c) E3 and E4 are not mutually exclusive a sum can be less than 7 and
less than 4 a the same time. Example outcome (1,2).
 d) E4 and E1 are mutually exclusive because a sum less than 7
cannot be equal to 10 at the same time. The two events cannot occur at
the same time.

Not Mutually Exclusive Events

Examples
Example 1: From the following events judge the pair of mutually exclusive or not mutually
exclusive events and justify your answers.

a) Drawing a king or an ace from a deck of cards

b) Getting a white ball or a red ball from an urn of white and red balls.

c) Getting a number multiple of 3 and divisible by 2 when a dice is thrown.

d) Drawing a red card or a jack from a given 52 cards deck.

e) Getting three heads or three tails when three coins are flipped.

Solution:

a) This set of events is mutually exclusive and we can either have an ace or king but both
cannot be draw simultaneously.

b) When we draw a ball from the urn of white and red balls it can be only of one color. So
again the events here are mutually exclusive.

c) In this case 6 is the number which is a multiple of 3 and is also divisible by 2. Hence we
have a case that proves that the events here are not mutually exclusive.

d) Here, a jack can be red in color too along with black. So the events are not mutually
exclusive.

e) Three heads or three tails are mutually exclusive events as it is clear that if one occurred
the second cannot occur at all.
Independent Events
Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of socks with each of the following
colors: blue, brown, red, white and black. Each pair is folded together in a matching
set. You reach into the sock drawer and choose a pair of socks without looking. You
replace this pair and then choose another pair of socks. What is the probability that you
will choose the red pair of socks both times?

Probabilities:

1
P(red) =
5

P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red)

1 1
= ·
5 5

1
=
25

Experiment 2: A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the
probability of landing on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the die.

Probabilities:

1
P(head) =
2
 1
P(3) =
6

P(head and 3) = P(head) · P(3)

1 1
= ·
2 6

1
=
12

Experiment 3: A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It

is then replaced and a second card is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a jack
and then an eight?

Probabilities:

4
P(jack) =
52

4
P(8) =
52

P(jack and 8) = P(jack) · P(8)

4 4
= ·
52 52

16
=
2704

1
=
169

Experiment 4: A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow marbles.

A marble is chosen at random from the jar. After replacing it, a second marble is
chosen. What is the probability of choosing a green and then a yellow marble?

Probabilities:
 5
P(green) =
16

6
P(yellow) =
16

P(green and yellow) = P(green) · P(yellow)

5 6
= ·
16 16

30
=
256

15
=
128

Each of the experiments above involved two independent events that occurred in
sequence. In some cases, there was replacement of the first item before choosing the
second item; this replacement was needed in order to make the two events
independent. Multiplication Rule 1 can be extended to work for three or more
independent events that occur in sequence. This is demonstrated in Experiment 5
below.

Experiment 5: A school survey found that 9 out of 10 students like pizza.

If three students are chosen at random with replacement, what is the probability that
all three students like pizza?

Probabilities:

9
P(student 1 likes pizza) =
10

9
P(student 2 likes pizza) =
10

9
P(student 3 likes pizza) =
10

9 9 9 729
P(student 1 and student 2 and student 3 like pizza) = · · =
10 10 10 1000
All of the experiments above involved independent events with a small population (e.g.
A 6-sided die, a 2-sided coin, a deck of 52 cards). When a small number of items are
selected from a large population without replacement, the probability of each event
changes so slightly that the amount of change is negligible. This is illustrated in the
following problem.

Problem: A nationwide survey found that 72% of people in the United

States like pizza. If 3 people are selected at random, what is the probability that all
three like pizza?

Solution: Let L represent the event of randomly choosing a person who likes pizza from
the U.S.

P(L) · P(L) · P(L) = (0.72)(0.72)(0.72) = 0.37 = 37%

In the next lesson, we will address how to handle non-replacement in a small

population.

Spin a spinner numbered 1 to 7, and toss a

1. coin. What is the probability of getting an odd
number on the spinner and a tail on the coin?

None of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

A jar contains 6 red balls, 3 green balls, 5

white balls and 7 yellow balls. Two balls are
2. chosen from the jar, with replacement. What
is the probability that both balls chosen are
green?
 None of the above

RESULTS BOX:

In Exercise 2, what is the probability of

3.
choosing a red and then a yellow ball?

All of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

Four cards are chosen from a standard deck of

4. 52 playing cards with replacement. What is
the probability of choosing 4 hearts in a row?
 None of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

A nationwide survey showed that 65% of all

children in the United States dislike eating
vegetables. If 4 children are chosen at
5.
random, what is the probability that all 4
dislike eating vegetables? (Round your
answer to the nearest percent.)

18%
260%
2%
None of the above.

Dependent Events
Example:

A purse contains four $5 bills, five $10 bills and three $20 bills. Two bills are
selected without the first selection being replaced. Find P($5, then $5)

Solution:

Example:

A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue and 4 yellow marbles. Two marbles are drawn, but
the first marble drawn is not replaced.

a) Find P(red, then blue)

b) Find P(blue, then blue)

Solution:
Definition: Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects
the outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed.

Now that we have accounted for the fact that there is no replacement, we can find the
probability of the dependent events in Experiment 1 by multiplying the probabilities of
each event.

Experiment 1: A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52

playing cards. Without replacing it, a second card is chosen. What is the probability that
the first card chosen is a queen and the second card chosen is a jack?

Probabilities:

4
P(queen on first pick) =
52

4
P(jack on 2nd pick given queen on 1st pick) =
51

4 4 16 4
P(queen and jack) = · = =
52 51 2652 663

Experiment 1 involved two compound, dependent events. The probability of choosing a

jack on the second pick given that a queen was chosen on the first pick is called
a conditional probability.

The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the

probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation
for conditional probability is P(B|A) [pronounced as The probability of event B given A].

The notation used above does not mean that B is divided by A. It means the probability
of event B given that event A has already occurred. To find the probability of the two
dependent events, we use a modified version of Multiplication Rule 1, which was
presented in the last lesson.

Multiplication Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of
both occurring is:
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)

Let's look at some experiments in which we can apply this rule.

Experiment 2: Mr. Parietti needs two students to help him with a

science demonstration for his class of 18 girls and 12 boys. He randomly chooses one
student who comes to the front of the room. He then chooses a second student from
those still seated. What is the probability that both students chosen are girls?

Probabilities P(Girl 1 and Girl 2) = P(Girl 1) and P(Girl 2|Girl 1)

18 17
= ·
30 29

306
=
870

51
=
145

Experiment 3: In a shipment of 20 computers, 3 are defective. Three

computers are randomly selected and tested. What is the probability that all three are
defective if the first and second ones are not replaced after being tested?

Probabilities: P(3 defectives) =

3 2 1 6 1
· · = =
20 19 18 6840 1140

Experiment 4: Four cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52

cards without replacement. What is the probability of choosing a ten, a nine, an eight
and a seven in order?

Probabilities: P(10 and 9 and 8 and 7) =

4 4 4 4 256 32
· · · = =
52 51 50 49 6,497,400 812,175

Experiment 5: Three cards are chosen at random from a deck of 52

cards without replacement. What is the probability of choosing 3 aces?

Probabilities: P(3 aces) ��=

4 3 2 24 1
· · = =
52 51 50 132,600 5,525

Summary: Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects
the outcome or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed. The
conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the probability that
event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The notation for conditional
probability is P(B|A). When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both
occurring is: P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)
Exercises

Directions: Read each question below. Select your answer by clicking on its button.
Feedback to your answer is provided in the RESULTS BOX. If you make a mistake,
choose a different button.

Two cards are chosen at random from a deck

1. of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
probability of choosing two kings?

None of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

Two cards are chosen at random from a deck

of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
2.
probability that the first card is a jack and the
second card is a ten?
 None of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

On a math test, 5 out of 20 students got an A.

If three students are chosen at random
3.
without replacement, what is the probability
that all three got an A on the test?

None of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

Three cards are chosen at random from a deck

of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
4.
probability of choosing an ace, a king, and a
queen in order?
 None of the above.

RESULTS BOX:

A school survey found that 7 out of 30

students walk to school. If four students are
5. selected at random without replacement,
what is the probability that all four walk to
school?

None of the above.

RESULTS BOX: