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There have been false dawns before, but this technology is poised to deliver cost
benefits and to advance innovation in manufacturing.
Systems for additive manufacturing, or rather than months away. The 3-D printer
3-D printing as it’s better known, industry has enjoyed double-digit
represent just a fraction of the $70 billion growth recently; sales of metal printers,
traditional machine-tool market indeed, rose by 75 percent from 2012 to
worldwide.1 Yet given the likelihood 2013. But expert consensus2 indicates
that this technology will start to realize that the market penetration is just a
its promise over the next five to ten fraction (1 to 10 percent) of what it could
years, many leading companies seem be given the wide range of possible
surprisingly unaware of its potential— 3-D applications (Exhibit 2).
and poorly organized to reap the benefits.
Ten percent of the executives in our
A McKinsey survey of leading manu- survey already find the technology
facturers earlier this year showed that “highly relevant.” They see 3-D printing’s
40 percent of the respondents were ability to increase geometric complex-
unfamiliar with additive-manufacturing ity and reduce time to market as the key
technology “beyond press coverage.” business benefits, closely followed
An additional 12 percent indicated that by reduced tooling and assembly costs.
they thought 3-D printing might be Those who expect to be among the
relevant but needed to learn more about next wave of users were much more
it (Exhibit 1). Many also admitted that likely to cite reducing inventories of
their companies were ill prepared to spare parts as one of the advantages.
undertake a cross-organizational effort Additive manufacturing, in short,
to identify the opportunities. Two-thirds seems set to change the way companies
said that their companies lacked a formal, bring their products to market and
systematic way to catalog and prioritize respond to customer needs. But predict-
emerging technologies in general. ing a “tipping point” is difficult.
The mass adoption of 3-D printing— Much will depend on when and how
the production of physical items layer by quickly overall printing costs fall,
layer, in much the same way an inkjet a development that should narrow the
printer lays down ink—is probably years still-yawning gap between the cost
2
Exhibit 1
How 3-D printing is set to become more relevant
Familiarity with 3-D printing and its perceived relevance, % of survey respondents,
n = 100
Not familiar,
beyond press 40
coverage
60 Familiar, beyond press coverage
expected to increase on the back of One new Chinese entrant is already selling
growing laser power, higher numbers of comparable selective laser-sintering
lasers, and better projection tech- machines at a price 25 to 30 percent
nology. All of that will serve to reduce below that of a leading Western supplier.
expensive machine time. Asian players are offering technically
comparable nylon powders at prices
Our research on sintering-based printers that are more than 30 percent lower
examined two possibilities. In the than those of their Western rivals. Price
“base” scenario, costs remain largely at undercutting is less dramatic for
their present level and companies nontraditional blends, such as carbon-
come to understand the benefits of add- filled powders used in strong but
itive manufacturing only gradually. In lightweight parts (those in racing cars,
the “market shock” scenario, printing for example).
costs fall precipitously—say, by 30
or even 50 percent over a ten-year period. While there have been false dawns before
Early
Q4 2014signs of these cost-shifting for 3-D printing as a whole, companies
dynamics
Additive can be seen in plastic sintering.
Manufacturing cannot afford to be complacent. That will
Exhibit 2 of 2
Exhibit 2
New products and New designs, enabled by cheap geometric complexity, that reduce
delivery models weight and offer geometry-driven performance (eg, fluid dynamics)
Tooling Savings on custom tooling that would otherwise amortize poorly over
low production quantities
1
Molds with geometrically complex cooling channels that shorten injection-molding cycle times.
Source: McKinsey analysis
4
be especially true if the expected bene- The coming years will bring new
fits to innovation are not only magnified by opportunities and challenges. Companies
cost reductions but also bring into with savvy executives who raise
scope whole new industries and product awareness, fill talent gaps, and build the
categories. CEOs and COOs above necessary organizational capabilities
all need to examine the readiness of their will be well positioned to benefit from this
companies for a future in which a breakthrough technology.
range of integrated digital technologies
1 Joe Jablonowski, Nancy Eigel-Miller, and Steve
(of which 3-D could be one of the
Kline Jr., The world machine-tool output &
most significant) will dominate manufac- consumption survey, Gardner Research, 2014,
turing and competitors will probably gardnerweb.com.
be building additive manufacturing into 2 Additive
manufacturing and 3D printing, State of
their value chains. That means focusing the Industry, annual worldwide progress report,
Wohlers Associates, 2014, wohlersassociates.com.
on better organizational cohesion and 3 For instance, electron beam melting (EBM),
considering partnerships with external selective laser sintering (SLS), and direct
organizations (such as local contract- metal laser sintering (DMLS). These additive-
manufacturing approaches are arguably more
printing bureaus) that have the necessary
relevant for manufacturing than filament
technical expertise. extrusion (known as FDM) or inkjet techniques.
Beyond the C-suite, companies should The authors wish to thank Chandana Asif,
build a group of executive champions Alessandro Gentile, Roberto Migliorini,
within the engineering, quality, operations, and John Persaud for their contributions to
and procurement units. Some aero- this article.
space and medical-device companies, for
Daniel Cohen is an alumnus of McKinsey’s
example, already have teams scanning
New York office, Katy George is a director
their entire design portfolios for parts that
in the New Jersey office, and Colin Shaw
could benefit from this technology.
is a principal in the London office. The
Furthermore, the introduction of 3-D
arguments in this piece are mainly derived
printing into complex manufacturing from a previous article by Daniel Cohen,
environments would require big changes “Fostering mainstream adoption of industrial
in quality-assurance and control 3D printing: Understanding the benefits and
processes: companies would have to promoting organizational readiness,” 3D
replace old protocols relying on Printing and Additive Manufacturing, June
extensive up-front testing and validation 2014, Volume 1, Number 2, pp. 62–9.
of traditional production tools, such
as molds. Since additive manufacturing Copyright © 2014 McKinsey & Company.
All rights reserved.
reduces or even eliminates the need
for these tools, organizations must under-
stand the steps needed to satisfy
their quality requirements in the future.