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MSIN0042 ─ DECISION SCIENCE ─ 2018/2019

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Dr. Onesun Steve Yoo
Associate Professor of Operations & Technology and Marketing & Analytics
UCL School of Management, University College London
1 Canada Square, London E14 5AB
onesun.yoo@ucl.ac.uk

This term 2 course outline should be read in conjunction with the UCL School
of Management Guidelines for Students 2018/19

Course Leader
Onesun Steve Yoo is an Associate Professor of Operations & Technology and Marketing &
Analytics in UCL School of Management, University College London. He joined the department
in 2010 after completing his PhD in Decisions, Operations and Technology Management at the
UCLA Anderson School of Management.

He teaches the course Decision & Risk Analysis in MSc in Management programme, and
Decision Science in BSc in Management Science programme. Previously, he has taught
Business Analytics in the BSc in Information Management for Business, and Decision & Risk
Analysis in the MSc in Technology Entrepreneurship programme, and Modelling in Operations
Management in the PhD programme.

Steve’s research activities focus on developing prescriptive theory in operations management

for high-growth entrepreneurial firms, including project selection, process improvement, and
hiring and retaining employees, lean product development, and utilizing data to manage pricing
decisions. He also focuses in developing descriptive theory of behavioural decision-making to
better understand the choices made by consumers and firms.

Teaching Assistants
Teaching assistants (TAs) are valuable resources for the course. They will assist me in helping you
learn, and grade your assignments. TAs are here to help you learn and they will be very helpful. The
teaching assistants available are: Viviana Culmone (v.culmone@ucl.ac.uk), Carlos Ribeiro
(cribeiro.mba95@london.edu), and Kraig Delana (kdelana@london.edu).

Aims
Important business decisions cannot be left to intuition alone. We need to communicate the
structure of our reasoning, defend it to adversarial challenges and make presentations that
show we have done a thorough analysis. We also need to make sense out of various sources of
data, organise the inputs of experts and colleagues, and use state-of-the-art tools to provide
analytical support to our reasoning. To equip you to be more effective in these tasks is the

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objective of this course. The emphasis is not on the quantitative aspects, but on the qualitative
insights that come from using models to aid managerial thinking and decision making.

Objectives
By the end of this course you will be equipped with specific skills in the areas of data analysis,
structuring decisions, building decision models, risk assessment, and decision making under
uncertainty, recognising areas where business analysis can add value, selecting appropriate
types of analyses and applying them in a small-scale, quick-turnaround fashion.

This is a practical course, which uses state-of-the-art decision support software to illustrate how
to apply the methodologies introduced. Therefore, the course consists of a mixture of lectures
and computer workshops. The software used in the lectures and workshops is Microsoft Excel,
with add-ins @Risk for simulation, PrecisionTree for decision analysis, and Solver for resource
allocation. If you are not well versed in Excel, it would be a good idea to brush up your Excel
skills before the course.

Topics
The following issues will be discussed
• What makes a good decision?
• What is the role of intuition and analysis in decision making?
• How can we structure managerial decision problems?
• How can we cope with an information overload and determine key information?
• What is risk, and how can we measure and assess it?
• What is our attitude towards risk?
• Which tools are available for analyzing risk?
• How should we choose between risky alternatives?
• What is the value of flexibility and optionality in our decision making?
• What do we have to be careful with when assessing and managing risk?
• What is the value of mitigating risks or obtaining additional information?

The following frameworks and tools will be introduced

• Creating decision models
• Framing decisions
• Risk Analysis
• Scenario Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Simulation Analysis
• Decision Analysis
• Real Options
• Optimisation
• Decision support tools

Assessment and Workload

The course grade will be based on three project reports (45% of final grade), a final written
exam (40% of final grade), class participation (10% of final grade), and completion of Excel
workshop exercise (5% of final grade). The first project is a take-home assignment. The second
and third projects are done in computer labs in the form of workshops. The assignments are to
be completed and turned in within 1 week.

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The computer workshops will give you the opportunity to apply the methodologies on practical
problems using software tools. You will be presented with a practical business problem in the
form of a case, and asked to provide your analysis and advice. The case will be made available
at the beginning of the workshop, and a short report (of about 10 pages) is to be handed in the
day after. The professor and tutors will be available to assist with queries related to the theory
or the software. You are encouraged to work in teams of two, and you should organise
yourselves in pairs before the workshop. You should choose a different partner for each project.
Note that, although you are encouraged to collaborate for the workshops, you should write your
own individual reports. The exam is paper based, open-book.

Assessment Date Deadline Weight Type

Excel exercise 14 December 16 January (10.00) 4% Individual
Report 1 25 January 30 January (10.00) 12% Individual
Report 2 22 February 27 February (10.00) 12% Individual
Report 3 15 March 20 March (10.00) 12% Individual
Exam TBD 60% Individual

Coursework should be submitted electronically via the relevant Assignment dropbox on the
course moodle site. Normally, electronic submissions should be in pdf format. The
submission protocol will be detailed within the coursework rubric.

Students are reminded that work must be submitted for each of these assessed elements;
failure to do so will result in the student being declared as NOT COMPLETE for the course.

Rounding: Note all confirmed marks will be calculated according to component breakdowns on
Portico. Rounding to the nearest integer takes place at each component.

Activity Workload
Lectures 21 hours
Preparation 33 hours
Reading 30 hours
Workshops 6 hours
Written work 30 hours
Revision 30 hours
Total 150 hours

Classroom Environment
All students are expected to play an active role in their own learning. As a result, individual
contributions to the classroom environment will form an important part of your programme
experience. In recognition of this, you are encouraged to play an active role in class, by making
appropriate contributions, answering questions and asking questions yourself. There are two
important principles behind this:

• To facilitate an environment whereby students can share relevant thoughts, insights and
experiences which advance discussions and the general learning in class.

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• To assist in the development of your skills in being able to ‘think on your feet’, develop a
succinct argument as well as learning how to challenge peers in a constructive way.
Such skills will serve you well throughout your career.

High-quality contributions are meaningful, thoughtful, relevant remarks or questions that

enhance everyone’s understanding of the case or concepts discussed, and do not have to be
“correct”. In fact, seemingly erroneous comments can be highly valuable as well. If by nature
you are a quiet person and would like to be called upon in class, please let us know and we will
help draw you into the class discussions.

Materials
The course material consists of cases, relevant articles and notes that will be made available on
Moodle prior to the course. Additional materials, including the lecture presentations, will be
distributed in class.

I recommend the textbook Management Science Modeling (Albright and Winston, 2011, 4th
Edition). You will also be provided with a copy of the Excel add-ins @Risk and PrecisionTree.

Schedule
Week Date Topic Format Location
1 11 January* The Process of decision making Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03

2 18 January Fundamentals of optimization & Building Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03
decision models in Excel

3 25 January+ Optimization using Solver Workshop Torrington Pl (1-19)
113

4 1 February Risk analysis Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03

5 8 February Decision making under risk Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03

6 15 February READING WEEK (NO CLASS)

7 22 February+ Decision making under risk using @Risk Workshop Torrington Pl (1-19)
113
8 1 March Decision analysis Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03

9 8 March Risk Management Strategies Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03

10 15 March+ Decision analysis using PrecisionTree Workshop Torrington Pl (1-19)
113

11 22 March Revision Session Lecture Malet Place EB 1.03

*all lectures are 10am-1pm
+workshops start 30 minutes earlier and end 30 minutes later

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Session Details

Week 1. The process of decision making (Excel Exercise DUE on 16 January)

In this session, we will explore the following issues:

• What is the role of intuition and analysis in decision-making?
• How can we structure managerial decision problems?
• How can we cope with an information overload and determine key information?
• How should we allocate our limited resources to various business opportunities?
The following frameworks and tools will be introduced:
• Framing managerial decision problems
• Creating decision models
• Framing decisions
• Optimising business decisions
Preparation:
• Prepare the “Red Brand Canners” case
After-lecture reading
• Albright & Winston: chapter 3, 4 (optional: 5, 6, 7)
• Video on Moodle

Week 2. Fundamentals of optimization

In this session, we will explore the following issues:

• The underlying structure of resource allocation problems
• The impact of resource allocation on the objective
The following frameworks and tools will be introduced:
• Building decision models in Excel
• Optimising business decisions using Solver
Preparation:
• Practice using Solver for the “Red Brand Canners” case

Week 3. Workshop: Optimization using Solver (Report 1 DUE 30 Jan)

Frameworks and concepts covered:

• Optimization using Solver

Week 4. Risk analysis

In this session, we will explore the following issues:

• What is risk, and how can we measure and assess it?
• Which tools are available for analyzing risk?
The following frameworks and tools will be introduced:
• Risk Analysis
• Scenario Analysis
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Simulation Analysis
Preparation:
• Prepare the “Eagle Airlines” case

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• Read “Taking the Risk out of Uncertainty”
After-lecture reading:
• “Risk Analysis in Capital Investment”
• Albright & Winston: chapters 1, 2, 9

Week 5. Decision making under risk

The following issues will be discussed:

• How can we incorporate risk in our criteria for decision-making?
• How should we choose between risky alternatives?
• Which tools are available for supporting decision-making under risk?
The following frameworks and tools will be introduced:
• Using @Risk for decision support
Preparation:
• Read the case “Wellyntoy Products: The Dynatron”
After-lecture reading:
• Albright & Winston: chapter 10

Week 6. Reading Week

• NO CLASS

Week 7. Workshop: Decision making under risk using @Risk (Report 2 DUE 27 Feb)

Frameworks and concepts covered:

• Risk Analysis and Decision Making under Uncertainty using @Risk

Week 8. Decision analysis

The following issues will be discussed:

• How do we assess multiple business scenarios?
• How do we choose between multiple courses of action?
• How do we know when it is best to make a certain decision?
• How can we incorporate optionality in our decision-making?
• What is the value of flexibility?
The following frameworks and tools will be introduced:
• Decision Analysis
• Real Options
Preparation:
• Prepare the case “Freemark Abbey”
After-lecture reading:
• Read the chapter on Decision Analysis from “Coping with Numbers”
• Albright & Winston: chapter 8

Week 9. Risk management strategies

The following issues will be discussed:
• What is the value of mitigating risks or obtaining additional information?

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• What is our attitude towards risk?
The following frameworks and tools will be introduced:
• Risk aversion
• Risk mitigation
• The value of information
Preparation:
• Review the case “Freemark Abbey”

Week 10. Workshop: Decision analysis using PrecisionTree (Report 3 DUE 20 Mar)

Frameworks and concepts covered:

• Decision Analysis using PrecisionTree

Week 11. Revision Session

The following issues will be discussed:

• What have we learned?
• Where and when is the exam, and how to prepare for it? Review of past exam.

Map

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