JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 98, NO.

D6, PAGES 10,375-10,384, JUNE 20, 1993

Correlationsof AtmosphericDynamics With Solar Activity

Evidence for a Connection via the Solar Wind,
AtmosphericElectricity, and Cloud Microphysics
BRIAN A. TINSLEY AND RODERICK A. HEELIS

Centerfor SpaceScience, Universityof Texasat Dallas

We respondto •everal criticismsof the view that there is a physicallinkagebetweensolar activity and
the dynamicsof the troposphereand lower stratosphere,and we provide further evidence in supportof a
mechanismfor sucha linkageinvolvingatmosphericelectricityand cloud microphysics.The main criticisms
are (1) that the decadaltime scalevariationsin stratifieddata resultfrom aliasingintroducedby the sampling
processand are not responses to a decadaltime scalephysicalinput; (2) that the observedcorrelationsare due
to chancecoincidenceor an atmospheric periodicitythat is not uniquelyrelatedto solarvariability; and O) that
there are no plausiblemechanisms that can amplify one of the weak solar-varyinginputsin the regionwhere
the correlationsare found. We showthat the aliasingcriticismis inadequatebecausethe real quasi-biennial
oscillationdepartsfrom an ideal sinewave in a way that reducesaliasingeffectsto insignificantlevels. The
nonuniquenessof identificationof the 11-yearsolarcycleasthe periodof the arcticforcingfor the Arctic winter
strawspherictemperaturesis a problemonly for the short33-year recordof polar temperatures;in muchlonger
time seriesof unstratifiedclimatedatathe periodsof 11 and 22 yearsare prominent.Highly uniquesignatures
of solarwind forcingof troposphericdynamicsexiston the day-to-daytime scalevia two independentinputs
to atmospheric electricity.Theseare (1) throughchangesin tropospheric ion productionasa resultof solarwind
modulationof galactic cosmic rays and (2) through changesin the potential differencebetweenthe polar
ionospheres and the surface,forcedby the solarwind By component.The productof the cosmicray flux and
the ionosphericpotentialdeterminesthe vertical air-earthelectricalcurrent.In the presenceof cloudsof large
horizontalextent, this current determinesthe rate of polarizationchargingof the cloudsvia the accumulation
of positiveelectrostaticchargeson dropletsnear cloud tops. The observedcorrelations,and theoreticaland
laboratoryresultsfor the effectsof electrostaticchargeson dropletsand aerosolson the ratesof ice nucleation,
are consistentwith the postulatethat for certain regionsand seasonsand atmosphericlevels the large-scale
atmospheric electricalparameters havesignificanteffectson the ratesof initial ice nucleation.In suchcasesthe
chain of consequences includeschangesin the ratesof precipitation,net latentheat release,vertical motions,
atmosphericvorticity, and ultimately in the general circulation.Much more work is required before the
mechanismcan be consideredto have a securebasisin laboratoryexperimentand quantitativeatmospheric
modeling.

1. INTRODUCTION
thesampling
process
andarenotresponses
to a decadal
timescale
There have been many reportsof apparentresponses of the physicalinput.
lower atmospheredynamicsand temperatureand precipitationto The observationsof winter stratospherictemperatures
variationsin solar activity. One of the more strikingcorrelations correlatedwith the solarcycle extendover only 33 years,which
has been foundbetweenthe winter stratospheric temperaturein is not longenoughto uniquelyidentifythe 11-yearsunspot
cycle
theArcticandthe 11-yearsunspot as the period of the forcing. We will show in Section3 that in
cycle[Labitzke,1987;Labitzke
and van Loon, 1988]. This was obtainedby stratifyingdata for muchlongertime seriesof atmospheric data, the solar(and solar
individual winters according to whether the direction of wind magnetic structure)periods of 11 and 22 years are
stratosphericwindsat 45 mbar in the equatorialregionswas fromprominent.
the west (westphase)or from the east(eastphase).Thesewinds The lackof a mechanism thatcanamplifya weaksolarinput
oscillatewith an approximate28-month period; therefore the in the region where the correlationsare found has been statedin
phenomenonis called the quasi-biennialoscillation(QBO) of essentiallyall critical discussions as a weaknessof the view that
equatorialstrawsphericwinds. Figure 1 is an updateof these correlations betweenatmospheric parameters andsolarvariability
results;it showsthat the correlationhaspersistedfor the yearsare caused by real physical connections. What calls for
subsequentto 1986. For the west phase, the temperature explanationis not only the Labitzkeand van Loon [1988] results
excursion betweenabout-75ø and-60ø C showsa strongpositive for decadaloscillationsin the stratosphere but also numerous
correlationwith the 10.7-cm solar flux, representing reportsof apparentresponses
the solar to solaractivityin the troposphere
cycle,whereasfor the eastphasethe temperatureexcursionover bothon the decadal(andlonger)time scalesandon the day-today
the samerange showsa moderatelystronganticorrelation.For time scales. The stratosphericoscillations,if real, might be
unstratified datathecorrelationis muchweaker.We will analyze excited by an in situ solar forcing, by effects propagating
in Section2 the argumentthattheseand,by implication,similar downwardfrom the mesosphere andthermosphere, or by effects
resultsfor troposphericdynamicsand atmosphericozone and propagating upward from solar forcing of the troposphere. It was
electricfield changesrepresentan aliasingeffectintroducedby pointed out by Holton [1982] that effectsare much more likely to
propagateupward than downward.
For identifyingprocessesthat might link solar inputs to
Copyright1993by the AmericanGeophysical
Union. atmospheric responses,it is advantageous to examineshort-term
variations, since the several solar inputs each have unique
Paper number 93JD00627. signatures on the day-to-daytime scaleandit is thereforepossible
0148-0227/93/93 JD-00627 $05.00 to identify any of the inputsthat might be involved; this is not

10,375
10,376 TINSLEYAND HEELIS:SOLARACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS

J • " I • I • i I •' I • i I • • • • i,J ionosphere and globalelectricalcircuitthe effectsof changesof

a) Unstratified q-54 solaractivityand in the large-scalesolarmagneticfields. These
fieldsalso modulatecosmicray fluxes from galacticsourcesas
they flow into the inner solarsystem.The cosmicray flux is the
• ,' - 62 dominant ionization source in the troposphereand lower
stratosphere.However, the amountof energyinvolvedin these
• /
,, f !
/•
. -66 electrical
inputsintothe atmosphere
is a factorof about109less
than the total solar irradiance and a factor of about 106 less than
--150 • • / -70 variationsin the visible-infraredand UV photoninputs[Newkirk,
0 I00 1982]. This hasbeenan impedimentto seriousconsideration of
• -74 •
70
solar wind forcing of weather and climate. However, the solar
-78
wind-modulatedelectrical energy is depositeddirectly in the
troposphere; has a relativelylarge amplitudeas a fractionof its
mean value and is an input that provides considerablymore
energy per particle than thermal energy for catalyzing or
x 250-

•
b)
West
Phase •-
'
-58

-62 •
controlling(on the microscale)chemicaland physicalchangesof
state.This energyrequiresan amplificationby morethana factor
of 106to significantly
affectatmospheric
dynamics.
However,the
• • -66 mechanismproposedby Zinsley [1990] and Tinsley and Deen
- [1991] connectingatmosphericelectricityand the rate of contact
• -70 • ice nucleationin cloudscan satisfythat requirementon a time
0 I00 scaleof hours.By affectingthe releaseof latentheat,it changes
verticalmotions,atmosphericvorticity,andatmospheric pressure.
70-
-78
This mechanism was proposed to explain the short-term
• ! • • T • I m I I ! J correlations
of troposphericdynamicswith shortterm modulation
] [ I [ ' • [ I m m [ [ I [ [ [ ] I of the galacticcosmicray flux by the solarwind during active
c) Eost Phose --•4 solarconditions.We will discussit alsoas a candidateto explain
250 -•8 •
the completelyindependentcorrelationsof troposphericdynamics
with changesin ionosphericelectricfieldsrelatedto changesin
-62 m the solarwind magneticfields underquiet solarconditions.
200

-66 • 2. NATURE AND EXTENT OF ALIASING EFFECTS

150
-70 m
The aliasing question has been emphasizedby Wallace
I00 [1988], TeitelbaumandBauer [1990], Dewan and Shapiro[1991],
7O _
• • / -
and $alby and $hea [1991]. The possibilityis raised that the
- -78 changein Arctic stratospheric temperature is dueto forcingby the
1954,•19• 0 , , , ,1970
I , • • )1980
I I • • I1990
l QBO alone(no input from the varyingsun),andthatthe apparent
YEAR correlationwith the 11-yearsolarcycle is a resultof aliasingby
the annualsampling.We first testthis by examiningthe aliasing
Fig. 1. Correlationbetweensolarflux andstratospheric
temperature
in the
Arctic from 1956to 1989. (a) Unstratifieddata. Solidcurve,January-
effectof samplinga syntheticQBO and comparingthe resultwith
February mean 30-mbar temperature;dashedcurve, 10.7-cm solar flux. the observations. We thenexaminethe aliasingeffectof sampling
(b) Sameas panela for wintersonly in the west phaseof the QBO. (c) the real QBO and comparingthe resultswith observations. Since
Sameas panela for wintersonly in the eastphaseof the QBO. the temperaturesamplesare made at 12-monthintervals, for a
pure sinusoidof period 28 monthsthere would be a 2-month
phase shift of each yearly datum point with respectto the
possibleon the decadaltime scale.We will examinein Section4 syntheticQBO. With stratificationof the datum points with
two independentsets of apparentresponsesto varying solar respectto whetherthey were in the positive (e.g., west) or the
inputs,bothof whichare shortterm andoccurin the troposphere. negative(e.g., east)phaseof the syntheticQBO, the resultshown
They point to the existenceof a singlephysicalprocesslinking in Figure 2 is obtained.For both phasesthe stratifieddata show
changesin troposphericdynamicsto changesin atmospheric the effectof aliasing,givinga sinusoidaloutputof period7 years.
electricityas it respondsto externalforcingby the solarwind. (When the phasesare sampledseparatelyat 12-monthintervals,
The processalsoimpliesvariationsin tropospheric forcingon the the samplingshiftsin phaseby 4 monthsper 28-monthQBO cycle
decadal time scale. We will discuss to what extent such [4 = 28 - 24], sothat in exactlythree QBO cyclesor 7 yearsthe
troposphericforcing, propagating upward as waves to the shiftstotal 12 months,repeatingthe initial conditions.) A key
stratosphere
while being modulatedby the QBO, can accountfor pointto be notedis that for the positivephasethe amplitudeis the
the apparentresponses there on the decadaltime scale. top 30% of the rangeof the syntheticQBO and for the negative
The possibility that the solar wind, via changesin its phaseit is the bottom30%, with no overlapof the two ranges.
magneticfield, affectsinputsintoatmospheric electricalprocesses This nonoverlapmustnecessarily be the casefor any stratification
andthe globalelectriccircuithasbeensuggested previously[Ney, accordingto positiveand negativephasesof the same forcing
1959; Dickinson, 1975, Markson, 1978]. The solar wind is the functionthat generatesthe unstratifiedtime series.An overlap
outwardextensionof the highlyconducting
solarcorona,moving can, of course, be producedif the syntheticor real QBO is
at supersonicspeed past the earth, and it transmitsto the sampledwith stratificationby other than the syntheticor real
 TINSLb-• AND HEELIS: SOLAR ACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERICDYNAMICS 10,377

t(months) from a puresinusoid'the westphasevariationresembles a square

0 84 168 252 •6 420
wave (and the samplingof a pure squarewave stratifiedby its
own phasedoesnot resultin aliasing),andthe periodis variable.
Positive
In the intervals from 1954 to 1964 and from 1968 to 1974, the
Phase
period was shorterthan average,and in the remainingintervals
the periodwas longer. The QBO is partiallyphaselockedto the
higher-altitudesemiannualoscillation[Gray and Pyle, 1989],
Negative tending to switch phasesat about the same time each year
Phase
(missingsome years). A wave completelyphaselocked to a
I I I I I I I I I I I l_J_ I I J__•,•_J_l•__J, I I L I I I I I I I I
-B semiannualoscillation would show no aliasing with annual
2• 28 :35
sampling.
0 7 14t/12 (years)
In summary,althoughit is true that analysesthat resemble
Fig. 2. Aliasingof a synthetic QBO [,4•o(t) = 1 + B cos(2•/28)] by thatmadeby Labitzkeand vanLoon [1988] do produceseriously
samplingit at 12-monthintervals.Dashedcurve, positivephaseof the
aliasedoutputs,we have shownthat the actual samplingand
cosineterm; solid curve negativephaseof the cosineterm.
stratificationprocedureusedby Labitzke and van Loon [1988],
when appliedto the real QBO forcing function,producesvery
QBO phase,as has been done in someof the studiesreferenced little aliasedoutputwith a period of 10-12 years. Thereforewe
above.However, thiswas notthe procedureusedby Labitzkeand concludethataliasingof a winter Arctic stratospheric temperature
van Loon [1988], and suchstratificationby other than the QBO change that is forced by the QBO alone is an inadequate
phasedoesnot constitutea test for the effect of aliasingin their explanationof the correlationsof Figure 1. The sameconclusion
results. appliesto winter circulationchangesin the troposphere[Labitzke
There are physical reasonsfor stratifying the data by the and van Loon, 1988; van Loon and Labitzke, 1988; Venne and
phase of the QBO, related to changeswith QBO phase of Dartt, 1990; Barnston and Livezey, 1991; Mason and Tyson,
stratospheric chemistryand of wave-meanflow interactionsand 1992]; andin the middleatmosphere[Chaninet al, 1989]; and for
of aerosoland electrical parameters,as will be discussedin winter electricfield changes[Marcz, 1990], andto ozonechanges
section5. The stratificationby alternateyearsdoesnot appearto
haveanyphysicalbasis,andcertainlythe stratificationof samples
of a syntheticQBO by the real QBO phasehasno physicalbasis, 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

and thus the resultsof such stratificationare without physical

significance. t ! I I I I I I ] ' I ' ' ' ' I [ ' ' ' Ii 25
2520
a) Unstratified
2O
15
Although the analysisrepresentedby Figure 2 appearsto I0

confh-msomealiasingeffects,the aboveresultshave been for an 5 ,

0
unrealisticQBO. The wholediscussion of the questionof aliasing _5 •
can be, and shouldbe, conductedwith respectto the real QBO, -I0
which is by no meansa sinusoldand hasby no meansa constant -15 -15

period. Figure 3 showsplots of the actual 45-mbar equatorial -20 -20

-25 _ -25
stratospheric wind velocity, from observationsat CantonIsland, J I I I I J I I I I J I I • • I _
the Maidives, and Singapore (K. Labitzke, personal • ] ] ] I ] i [ ] I • [ I ] I t [ ] I I
25 25
communication,1991] for the years since 1951. Figure 3a is the 20_
b) West Phase 20
completetime series, and the diamondsare the values of the 15 15

annual samplingwithout stratification.Figure 3b is the annual 10 10

5 5-
samplingfor the QBO westphaseonly, and Figure3c is the same T
0 0 •n
for the QBO eastphaseonly. One can see that the samplingand -5
stratificationhaveproducedoutputswith no overlap,as expected, -10 -10

but surprisingly,there is very little modulationdue to aliasingat -15 -15

-20 -20
the 7-year period or in the range 7-15 years. Figure 3 can be
-25 -25
compareddirectly with Figure 1, and, in particular, the almost
completeoverlap of the variationsin Figs lb and lc can be ] [ ' ' I ] ' ' s I ' ' ' ' I [ [ ' ' I
25
comparedwith the well-separatedand small-amplitudevariations 25
20
c)East Phase 20
in Figures3b and 3c.
Therefore, there are two argumentsagainstaliasingof QBO
forcing (without input from the varying sun) as an explanationof 5 5-
0 0
the data in Figure 1. The argumentjust in termsof mathematics -5 -5 IS
is thatthe samplingandstratificationshouldproduceoutputswith -io - io

somelongperiod-aliasing,but no overlapof the stratifiedoutputs. -15 -15

-20 - 20
This is contrary to the observations,which show complete
-25 -25
overlap. The secondand strongerargumentrestson the empirical
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
result(as shownin Figures3b and3c) of samplingthe real QBO, YEAR
in contrast to the mathematicalresult of sampling a pure
sinusoidal QBO, which shows even less resemblance to the Fig. 3. Equatorialstratospheric
45 mbarwindvelocityfor theperiodfrom
observations.
1951 to 1991, O, January-February meanvalues (a) Unstratifieddam.
As a commentary,but not as part of the argument,we note (b) January-February dam for wintersonly in the west phaseof the QBO.
that Figure 3a showsthe way in which the real QBO departs (c) January-February dam for wintersonly in the eastphaseof the QBO.
 10,378 TINSLEY AND HEELIS: SOLARACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERICDYNAMICS

[Varotsos,1989], sincefor all of thesestudiesdatastratifiedby • 4 • I' i' ' ' I [ I [ ' '1
the QBO phase also show correlationswith the l 1-year solar
cycle. z

-l-
u 0 -
3. UNIQUENESS OF SOLAR AC'FIVFI'Y LIJ

FORCING FOR DECADAL Tnvm SCALE VARIATIONS :::)-2

I--

It was pointed out by Baldwin and Dunkerton [1989],

Teitelbaumand Bauer [1990], Dewan and Shapiro [1991] and I I I , I , 1
$alby and Shea [1991] that the intervalof about33 years, over 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
which the correlation of stratified winter stratasphericand YEAR
tropospheric temperatures with the solarcycleholds,is too short (a)First spectral mode (22 year cycle
to uniquely identify the l 1-year solar cycle as the forcing
• 3
function;in fact, simulatedforcingfunctionswith periodsfrom 8
to 15 years with optimizedphasesshow correlationcoefficients
which are just as high. The suggestionis that becausethe
atmosphericvariability is not uniquelyidentifiedwith l 1-year
solarcycle,thereis nojustificationfor considering thata physical
mechanismconnectsthe atmosphereand the solar variability.
However, this argumentis invalidatedby the fact that although
severalinputsto the atmospherefrom the sun,varyingon the 11-
year cycle, have been identified (solar ultraviolet, solar visible-
infrared, MeV particles, GeV particles,electric fields from the
I- 1•0 1900 1920 1940 1960 I9•0
solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction),no plausible
YEAR
nonsolarinputsof an 8- to 15-yearperiodshavebeenidentified.
(b) Third spectral mode (11 year cycle)
For a discussionof solar inputs, see the National Research
Dotted line is sunspot number.
Council[1982] report. The lack of uniqueness doesnot meanthat
I I I I [ [ [ I I [ [ I [
solar forcing is excluded, only that it is not conf'mned.An 11-
year solar forcingwould accountfor the high correlationswith ! I l '
simulatedperiods ranging from 8 to 15 years and is thus the
logical choiceto begin a searchfor mechanisms.
The problemof nonuniqueness is not presentfor correlations i.i Y iV ..v' '
foundin severalsetsof unstratifiedatmosphericdatathat extend
overperiodsmuchlongerthan33 years.Summertimeatmospheric ,, '.....'
:.I :,
temperaturesin the central United Statescorrelatewell with the
solar cycle, as shownin Figures4 and 5 (at•er Changand Lau, .

[1990]; and Labitzkeand van Loon, [1992], respectively).The I i I J i I I I J I I !

KansasCity temperaturevariationswere previouslyshownto be
• 1950' ,97o
YEAR
representative of a largearea of the centralUnitedStates[Chang
(c) fifth spectral mode (2.2 year cycle)
and Wallace, 1987], as also are the Charlestontemperature Dotted line is QBO(equator'ial strataspheric wind index).
variations [Labitzke and van Loon, 1992]. The two figures
combinedrepresenta 95-yearperiodshowingthe correlation.The Fig. 4. Spectralcomponentsof mean summer 0une, July, August)
interval betweenthe early 1960s to the mid-1970s, when the temperatures
at KansasCity, from singularspectralanalysis.The vertical
amplitude of the atmospheric variation was low and the scaleshowsthedepartureof thetemperature fromthemean.After Chang
and Lau [1990].
correlationwith the solarcycle was not present,can be attributed
to the effects on climate of the volcanic aerosols from the Mt. centeredon 11 and 2.2 years. A maximumentropyanalysisof
Agung eruption [Labitzke and Naujokat, 1983; Newell, 1970]. 102 years of data on Atlantic tropical cyclones[Cohen and
Figure 5 shows that the atmospherictemperaturevariation Sweester,1975]showedthat for the rangeof periodsfrom6 to 40
returnedto being in phasewith the solar cycle followingthe yearsthe numberof tropicalcyclones/season, and the lengthof
decay of the Mt. Agung-assoeiated transient.Apart from this the season, had strongestpeaks at 11.3 and 10.9 years
periodtherewere six cyclesof atmospherictemperature in phase respectively.Therewere alsosmallerpeaksat 22 and21.2 years
with the solar cycle and two in quadrature.Some cycles in respectively.A studyof 250 yearsof ice accumulation datafrom
quadratureare to be expectedsinceother sourcesof variability Mt. Logan, Yukon [Holdsworthet al., 1989] showedprominent
exist, as part of a red noise continuumdue to sea surface peaksin accumulation rate at 3.8, 11.3, and 21 years.The 3.8-
temperaturechange and internal atmosphericvariability, in year peak may be identifiedwith the el Nifio-SouthernOscillation
additionto volcanism.Anotherlong-termdatasetshowing a good period.It is difficultto attributethe 11- and 22-yearperiodsin
correlationwith solarvariability is that of northAtlanticwinter the abovedatasetsto anythingotherthansolarforcing.
stormtrack latitudesover a 67-yearperiod [Tinsleyand Deen,
4. UNIQUF2qESS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY
1991]. Four cyclesare in phase,and althoughtwo cyclesare in FORCING ON THE DAY-TO-DAY TIME SCALE
quadrature, the associatedstorm frequency and surface
4.1. Forcingby Changesin AtmosphericIon Production
•temperature variationsremainin phase. The studyof 100 years
of north Atlantic mean sea level pressureby a principal TinsleyandDeen[1991] foundcorrelations betweenchanges
componentanalysis[Kelley, 1977] revealedsignificantpeaks in the500 m-barvorticityareaindex(a measure of theintensity
 TINSLEY AND HEELIS: SOLARACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERICDYNAMICS 10,379

CHARLESTON 4.2. Forcingby Changesin Polar Cap IonosphericPotential

I I I I I I I I I I I I ! ! , , , , , •430
HEIGHTS 30 mbar• We nowdescribea completelyindependent setof correlations
onthe day-to-daytime scale,whichare foundfor quietsolarwind
2426 conditionswith relativelylittle changein cosmicray flux.
Figure 6 showsthe variationof ionosphericpotentialalong
a dusk-dawn(1800-0600 hours) meridianthroughthe northern
250 _ SOLAR 2422 polar region. The curves are from the analytical model of
210
FLUX Hairstonand Heelis [1990], whichis derivedfrom an empirical
fit to a large data base of measurements made with the DE-2
•7o \ ' 2418
satellite,andare consistent with manyothersuchmeasurements.
130 The threecurvescorrespond to the solarwind azimuthalmagnetic

90 '• '• •
' ;
',...•,1 "".?
• .• IJ field componentBy havingvaluesof +7, 0, and-7 nT, for a
maximumhorizontaldawn-duskpotentialdifference,•I,, of 80 kV.
I I i i This value for •I, is typical for average conditionsif the
{950 {960 970 {980 {990
componentBz of the solar wind magnetic field is negative
! I'' I I I I I ! i i i iJ • i • I
HE GHTS tabor-{670 (southward),with the actualvaluebeinga functionof bothBz and
.
the solarwind velocity, V [Reiff and Luhman, 1986]. For these
applications,By and Bz are expressedin a solar-terrestrial
x
• 250- SOLAR {666 coordinatesystem,knownas the geocentricsolarmagnetospheric
J f LUX[.,,•, (GSM) system[Crooker and $iscoe, 1986]. It can be seenthat
E210 within 5 ø of the pole the ionosphericpotentialrisesand falls by
• i7o
-
: ,, •,
I
;" ' 40 Kv, as By changesfrom -7 to + 7 nT and back to -7 nT.
Figure 7 showsI;, the averageof the ionosphericpotentials
over areas of both the northern and southernpolar caps.
• , • ,, , •, ,I ',', I - Specifically, for 7a the average is over the circular regionsof
0 90 - •.,' radius10ø magneticcolatitude(2200 km in diameter,centeredon
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 the magneticpoles)and for Figure 7b it is the zonesbetween10ø
and 15ø magneticcolatitude.The heavy solid lines are for the
20Orebar_ -53 northernpolar cap with •I, = 80 kV, and they eachincludethree
pointscorresponding to the areaaveragesassociated with the three
curvesfor Figure 6. The lighter solid lines are for the northern
polar cap, with valuesof •I, equal to 50 and 120kV. The dashed
x -54
curvesshow the averagedpotentialfor the samevaluesof •I, in
• 250 the southernpolar cap. Note that the area-averagedpotentialsE
are asymmetric with By because of the asymmetry in the
•210 ,
convectionpatternas a functionof By as shownin Figure6. The
•o 170• oppositevariationsin the northernand southernpolar capsresult
from the Findingthat there is no significantdifferencebetween

-• '
<•
o
90 "- "
1950
*..y
1960
,.½
19•0
YEAR
,•LUX•½
1980 1990
convectionpatternsin the north when By is positiveand in the
southwhen By is negative.This asymmetricdistributionwith By
is alsoseenin ground-based
[Friis-Christensen
measurements of ionosphericcurrent
et al., 1972;Mansurovet al., 1974; $valgaard,
Fig. 5. Time seriesof the 200-mbartemperature and 100- and 30-mbar 1974] and of electric field [Holt et al., 1987]; the studiesby
gcopotential heightin July-Augustand of the 10.7-cmsolarflux. Heavy Mansurov et al. [1974] and Svalgaard [1974] show its opposite
linesare3-yearrunningmeans.The periodof poorcorrelationin themid- behaviorin the two hemispheres.
1960shere and in Figure 4 followsthe Mt. Agungvolcaniceruption. It was found by Mansurov et al., [1974] that the surface
After Labitzl• and van Loon [ 1992]. pressureat Mould Bay and Dumondd'Urville, two stationsabout
10ø from the north and south 'invariant' magnetic poles
of cyclonicdisturbances) and changesin neutronmonitorcount respectively,varied by about4 mbar betweenperiodswhen the
rates(a proxyfor the rateof ionproduction by cosmicraysin the solarwind Bx value was positiveand when it was negativeand
uppertroposphere).The set of 108 eventsstudiedwere at times that this variation was oppositein the Antarctic and the Arctic.
of Forbushdecreases in the flux of galaeriecosmicrays, caused The magneticcoordinatesystemusedto definethe Hairston and
by magneticshockwavesin the highlydisturbedsolarwind. The Heelis [1990] modeland the curvesof Figure 6 hasits polar axis
correlationswere presentwhen the set of eventswas divided in passingthroughthe 'invariant' magneticpoles.A resultconsistent
fourdifferentways:with respectto the first 16 yearsandnext15 with that of Mansurovet al. [1974] was foundby Page [1988,
years,with respectto the furstand secondhalvesof winter, with 1989], who compareddaily averagesurfacepressuresat Thule,
respectto eastandwestQBO phasewinters, andwith respectto Greenland, with those at MeMurdo, Antarctica, for Bx values in
largerandsmallerForbushdecreases (largerandsmallerapparent 1-nT intervalsbetween-7 and + 7 nT over the period 1964-1974.
responses). The correlations were not presentwhen a setof key These stationsare also about 10ø from the 'invariant' magnetic
daysof large10.7 cm solarflux variations,representing variable poles.Values of the solarwind magneticfield componentBy are
solar photon inputs into the atmosphere,were used in the highly correlatedwith the valuesof Bx as a result of the field
analysis.Therefore, the apparentresponseswere uniquely geometry[Hirschberg,1969], andthe averagefield 'gardenhose'
identifiablewith solarwind forcing. angle of 45ø defines a constantof proportionalityof-1.0.
10,380 TINSLEY AND HEELIS:SOLARACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS

.-- • By i= 0 nT

3 o ........
i.........................
!.........................
'i........................
i................. f......

•
• 0
' , By
=-7'n,
""•'!'
'•/i
......................... •"
i '""-"•
...................................................

.........................
!.............
'"'X'"'i
.........................
i....... .............
.........
{.........................
........................
..... [.............................................
............................
[....................................................
m -60 •
50 60 70 80 90 80 70 60 50

Magnetic Latitude (deg}

Fig. 6. Averagepolar cap ionosphericpotentialvaHationsmeasuredalong•e dawn-duskline in •e no•em he•sphe• wi•

Bz negativeandfor a 80 kV to•l ho•on•l ('dawn-dusk')potemialdifference,•, for •ree • values.• •e sou•em he•sphem
ß e vaHationsco•spond to •ose in •e no•em hemisphere but wi• •e signof • •versed.

Thereforethe apparentresponses to changesin Bx can also be cycle, Bz (GSM) showsa correlationwith By in someseasons,
interpretedas an apparentresponseto By changes.In Figure 7c and an anticorrelationin others.Thereforeit is preferableto test
we replotthe resultsof Page[1989] in the sameformatasFigure for the correlationof pressure(and geopotential height)with the
7a and 7b, with By replacing-Bx the pressuresconvertedto areaaveragedpotential• ratherthanwith By, with • calculated
millibars,andwith estimatederror barsadded.We alsoreplotthe from both • and By (GSM).
resultsof Mansurovet al. [1974] as solid circlesfor Mould Bay
andopensquaresfor Dumondd'Urville, with the meanpressures 5. DISCUSSION OF A POSSIBLE MECHANISM
for the stationstaken as 972.5 and 979.5 mbar, respectively,for
The averageionospheric potentialwith respectto the earthis
the purposesof clarity in plottingthe differenceson the figure.
positiveand about 250 Kv. Most of this potential difference
The error bars on pressurerepresentestimateddeviationsof the
appearsacrossthe lowest 10 km of the atmosphere[Robleand
mean,obtainedfrom the pressuredistributions of Mansurovet al.
Tzur, 1986] giving rise to the vertical electric field in the
[1974], which show measuredaverage deviationsof individual
troposphere,with efficientdownwardmappingof the ionospheric
datapointsfrom the meanof 10 mbar. Page [1989] utilizeda total
horizontalvariations for areas of scale size greater than a few
of 2495 events in 14 bins. Taking into account the bimodal
hundred kilometers. The satellite measured changes in the
distributionof occurrenceof daily averageBy valuesmeasuredfor
ionospheric potentialby ca. 40 kV representa 10-20% changein
the years1974 and 1982, we calculatedthe variableerror barsfor
the ionosphere-earth potential differenceand thus a 10-20%
pressureshown.The meanpositiveand meannegativeBy values
changein the verticaltroposphericelectricfield, which mustco-
both had magnitudesof 3.0 + .25 nT in the solarminimumyear
vary with •. The large-scaleelectricfield in the troposphere
1974 and the solar maximum year 1982, and so we used this
producesa downwardcurrent,which meetsan obstaclein clouds
value to represent1964. We assumeda persistence of threedays
because of their low conductivity, producing boundary
for both the pressure and By variations in calculating the
deviations of the means. The results with estimated errors for
polarizationchargelayers at the topsand bottomsof the clouds
anda highpolarizationelectricfield in between[Beardand Ochs,
Page's [1989] data are consistentwith a linear variation of
1986]. The productionof thesechargelayersproceedsby cloud
pressurewith By, with a slopeof-0.2 + 0.1 mbar/nT for Thule
dropletsof radiusR capturingchargeup to a maximum• in a
(Arctic), and a slope of +0.2 + 0.1 mbar/nT for McMurdo
growingfield of magnitudeE, wheree0is the permittivityof free
(Antarctic).For the dataof Mansurovet al., [1974], largerslopes
spaceand • is givenby
of-0.67 + 0.3 mbar/nT for Mould Bay (Arctic) and +0.67 +
0.3 mbar/nT for Dumond d'Urville (Antarctic)are found.
Q = 12•r•0R2E
The correlationsdescribedabove, of ]• with By on the one
hand, and of troposphericpressurewith By on the other, are so which amountsto 180 elementarychargesfor a 30-ttm-radius
similar as to leave little reason to interpret these as chance dropletin a field of 100 V/m. The processsteadilyincreasesthe
correlations.We note that (1) a systematicvariation of surface amountof chargein the layer, and the polarizationelectricfield
pressurewith By hasbeenfoundfor four differentlocations,over E, and consequently the amountof chargeattainedper droplet,
two different time intervals; and (2) within the polar caps the until the atmosphericcurrentis continuousthroughthe cloudor
variations of pressurewith By are oppositein the southern the processis interruptedby transporteffects.The rate at which
hemisphereto the variationsin the northernhemisphere,as are the chargingproceedsdependson the atmospheric current,which,
the variationsof • with By. in turn dependson (1) the atmosphericion concentration andthus
These correlations were found for a small fraction of all the on the cosmic ray flux, and (2) the local ionosphericpotential.
datanow available,andthereis a needto testfor their persistence The charge on a supercooleddroplet at cloud top is therefore
in morerecentand comprehensive measurements of pressureand likely to vary as a functionof the productof the cosmicray flux
geopotentialheightwhichextendacrossbothpolarcaps.Also, the and the local ionosphericpotential.
ionosphericpotentialsare strongly affected by the dawn-dusk The verticalatmospheric electricfieldsat cloudtop are of the
potential difference, •, which depends on the Bz (GSM) order of 10 V/m, amplifiedby anotherorder of magnitudein the
componentof the solar wind magnetic field. Becauseof the polarizationelectricfield withinthe cloud.As cloudsdevelopand
changingorientationof the GSM coordinateaxes on an annual the polarizationfield increases,large fluctuatingfieldsare found
 TINSLEYAND HEELIS: SOLARACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERICDYNAIVlICS 10,381

a)
lO

: -10-

-10 -5 0 5 10
< -30- By (nT)

< -40-
984
•-976
-5O
E - 982•
-10 -5 0 5 10
974
By (nT)
:3 - 980 •

e 972

978 o
._o970
976•
.,.

968
-10 -5 0 5 10
By (nT)

Fig.7. (a) Variationof areaaveragedionospheric potentialF with By for threevaluesof the dawn-duskpotentialdifference,•,
for northernandsouthern hemispheres for the areasof radius10ø magneticcolatitude.Solidcurves,northernhemisphere values,
dashedcurves,southern hemisphere values.(b) Variationof F for the zonesbetween10ø and 15o colatitude.(c) Variationwith
By of surfacepressure at ArcticandAntarcticstations,replottedwith -Bx replaced by By, with pressurein millibars,andwith
error barsestimated,as discussed in the text. Solid line, Thule (north);dashedline, McMurdo (south)(after Page [1989]. Solid
circles,Mould Bay (north);opensquares,Dumondd'Urville (south)(afterMansurovet al. [19'•4]).

to be presentalso. Althoughthe atmosphericand polarization If theabov•ocenario is generally correct• thecontributions

fieldsremainsmallcomparedwith thesefluctuatingfields, in the to dropletchargingfrom boththe averageandthe strongest cloud
contextof section4 we are consideringaveragesover regions fieldswould be responsive to the productof the cosmicray flux
hundredsof kilometers across. The points in Figure 7c are and the local ionospheric potential. The electrofreezing
averagesof 50 daysor more of measurements. In addition,the mechanism postulatesthatvariationsin the amountof suchcharge
amplitudesof the fluctuatingcloud fields may scale with the affect the rate of initial ice generationat the topsof clouds.Ice
ambientatmosphericfield. Althoughthe understanding of the generationis not well understood,althoughit is the first stepin
cloud-chargingprocessis still in an exploratorystage[Beardand the standard Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisonmechanism for
Ochs, 1986], it appearsthat for the cloudstageof interesthere, precipitation.In their recent study,Hobbs and Rangno [1990]
i.e., before significantamountsof ice are produced,the electric suggested that contactice nucleationat the tops of cumuliform
field fluctuationsare producedby convectionand turbulence, cloudsoccursfirst and is followedby depositionor condensationø
redistributingboththe atmosphericchargedensity(as a resultof freezing nucleation. There is at least one processby which
the constantvertical currentin the presenceof vertical gradients electrostaticchargingof clouddropletsand aerosolswill enhance
in atmospheric conductivity)andthe polarizationchargedensity. the contact ice nucleationrate, and quite plausibly two. The
Therefore, a spectrumof fluctuationswould be generatedwith process alreadyrecognized is the increasein collectionefficiency
overall sealingfor amplitudeproportionalto the ambientvertical for aerosols(actingas ice nuclei) by chargeddropletscompared
atmosphericelectric field (in the absence of cosmic ray with that by unchargeddroplets.From models,the effect is an
variations).It shouldbe notedthat we do not intendto imply that increase by upto an orderof magnitude for collectionof aerosols
such chargingprocessesare responsiblefor lightning electric between10-2and1 t•m in radiusby droplets of a fewtensof #m
fields, since alter ice formation takes place other charge in radius with typical cloud charges [Wang et al., 1978].
separationprocesses becomeimportant[Beardand Ochs, 1986]. Measurementsof the effect show an increaseby up to two orders
 1o, 382 T{ NSLEYANDHEELIS:SOLARACTIVITYAND ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS

of magnitude[Barlow and Latham, 1983]. The secondprocessis dynamicsis as follows. Changesin the mean tropospheric
that of electrostaticchargeeffectson the physicsof nucleation temperature
by 6øC, or in atmospheric
vorticityrelatedto surface
itself, for whichlaboratoryevidencehasbeenreviewedby Tinsley pressurechangesby a few millibars, are equivalentto a
and Deen [1991]. The most recent laboratoryevidenceis that of redistribution
of atmospheric energyby about10-3W cm-2.The
Gavishet al. [1992], who reportedon a comparisonof the ice- production rateof ionsin theuppertroposphereis about10 cm'3
nucleatingability of polar and nonpolar crystals that were s-• [Neher,1971],andsoin a layer1 m thickatthetopsof clouds
otherwisecloselymatched,with neitherhavinga structuralmatch about103ionsareproduced persecond percolumnof 1 square
to ice. The polar crystalswere much more efficient nucleators centimetercrosssectionin the layer. The typicaldownwardflux
thanthe nonpolarcrystalswere. The ice nucleationwas observed of ice crystalsin fall streaksand in the modelof Rutledgeand
to occurat submicroscopic cracksin the crystal,which suggests Hobbs[1983] is about1 cm-2s-•, so that the abovevalueswould
that it is the microscaleelectricfields, due to electrostaticcharges be consistent
with 1 in 103 chargedaerosols
actuallycausing
that appearon oppositewalls of cracksin polar crystals,that are electrofreezing,
assumingthatall ionsattachto aerosols.This flux
the significant physical agent ordering water molecules(or of seedercrystalsproduceda doublingof the precipitationratein
embryonicice crystalsbelow the critical size) andpromotingice warm frontalrainbandsin the model.If eachice crystalresulted
nucleation.Therefore,in the atmosphere,the microscopic electric in a I-ram-diameterwater dropletleavingthe atmosphere,rather
field that existsat the momentof contactof oppositelycharged thanthe water beingreevaporated, the net latentheatreleasedto
supercooledwater dropletsand aerosolsmay similarly promote the atmosphere is about1 J per drop, or 1 Wcrn-2. We can
ice nucleation. reducethis energyflux by a factorof 10 sincewe are trackinga
The successivesteps in the chain of processeslinking 109[changein the inputandfurtherreduceit by a factorof 102
changesin ice nucleationwith changesin atmospheric dynamics for the intermittentnatureof the precipitation
in spaceandtime,
and/or temperaturemay be different in winter and summer. andwe canstillaccount
for 103W cm-2.Thisrepresents
boththe
Clouds are colloidal suspensions which are unstable day-to-daychangesin troposphericdynamicsin winter and the
gravitationally,and they are also unstablethermodynamically to changesin winter stormson the decadaltime scaleas discussed
changesof phasewhen above the freezing altitude. When the by Tinsleyand Deen [1991].
dropletsare inducedto freeze and/or grow and coalesceand For the summervariationsof Figures4 and 5, the effectsof
precipitatebefore they evaporate, there are large effects on radiativeforcingas consequences of electrofreezingmaybe more
atmosphericdynamicsbecauseof net latent heat rele•iseand important.A changein high level cloud opacityby 5% would
consequentchanges in vertical air motions, which affect changethe heating rate in the column below of the order of
atmospheric vorticityand atmospheric pressure.There may also 0.03øC/day [Dickinson,1975], sothat in 2 monthsa 2øC surface
be effects due to changesin cloud radiative forcing. The temperaturechangewould result,in agreementwith the resultsin
electrofreezingprocesswill changethe particle size distribution Figure 4. This is neglectingany contributionsdue to changesin
even in thosecloudsin which the ice crystalsdo not grow large circulation.
enoughto affect precipitation,and the processwill affect the The explanationof the stratosphericvariationsshown in
water content as well as cloud albedo in those clouds that do Figure1, andthe role of the QBO in themremainsa puzzle.The
precipitate.There may alsobe effectsdueto watervaporradiative effects occur in January and February, when the vortex is
forcing, as a resultof changesin the amountof water vaporthat unstableto small dynamic or temperatureperturbations.The
remainsin the atmosphere when cloudsdissipateafter ice crystals region concernedis the upper stratosphere where very little
grow largeenoughto affectprecipitation.Sincewatervaporis the supercooled wateris formed,andso effectspropagating up from
most importantgreenhouse gas (it is 100 times more abundant the troposphereand additional effects due to changesin
than CO2 at low latitudesand low altitudes),small systematic stratosphericionization shouldbe considered.The amountof
changesin its concentrationcould have significanteffects on energyrequiredsayto heatthe regionabovethe altitudeof the 40
climate. Althoughthe theory of all of theseprocessesin the mbar level by 20øC is small comparedwith that involvedin the
contextof realcloudsis still in an exploratorystage,andalthough decadaltroposphericchanges(e.g., about 10% of the energy
other processesmay be important,we suggestthat the rate of involvedin the changeof surfacetemperatureby 6øC in the
clouddropletchargingaffectsthe rate of initial ice nucleationand easternUnitedStates,as foundby vanLoon andLabitzke[1988].
ultimatelyatmospheric dynamicsand/ortemperature.In thisway The amountjust to trigger stratosphericwarming would be
it is possible to account for the observed correlations of considerablysmaller. Studieshave been carried by Darnerisand
atmospheric dynamicsandtemperature,bothwith cosmicray flux Ebel [1990], O'Sullivanand $alby [1990], and Balachandranet
changeson the day-to-day and decadal time scalesand with al. [1991] on the propagationof planetarywaves,originatingin
electricfield changeson the day-to-daytime scale. the troposphere at low latitudes,to the high-latitudestratospheres
For winterconditions,thetemperature contrastbetweenpolar andtheir effectson stratospheric warmingthere. They foundthat
air massesand relativelywarm water, as well as the presenceof the effectswere greater during east phaseQBO conditionsthan
a well developed baroclinic instability, favors the chain of duringwestphaseconditions.Takenwith greaterplanetarywave
processesprogressingfrom ice nucleationthrough the seeder- generationby intensification of winter cyclonesat solarminimum
feederprocess[RutledgeandHobbs,1983]. The stepsincludethe comparedwith solar maximum, there is the possibilityof
releaseof latent heat, the increasein vertical motionswithin cloud explainingthe eastphasevariationof the relationships in Figure
systems, and consequentchangesin vorticity and surface 1. The west phase variation would have to be explained
pressure.In warm-corewinter cyclones,the final step is the separately.In this contextit may be importantthat the upper
conversionof the linear kinetic energyof the generalcirculation boundaryconditionfor propagation of wavesin the stratosphere
to eddykineticenergy,producingwavesthatpropagateout of the is subjectto significant11-yearcyclesdueto the solarultraviolet
region and changesin the general circulation,as discussedin variability. QBO effectson stratospheric water vapor and minor
Tinsleyet al., [1989] and Tinsleyand Deen [1991]. An overview chemicalconcentrations [Chipperfieldand Gray, 1992] that may
of thescalingof energybetweendropletchargingandatmospheric be carried into the polar vortex by meridional stratospheric
 TINSLEY AND HEELIS: SOLAR ACTIVITY AND ATMOSPHERICDYNAMICS 10,383

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6. CONCLUSIONS
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Acknowledgments. This work has been supportedby the National
particleconcentrations in small polar maritime cumuliformclouds,
ScienceFoundationDivisionof AtmosphericSciencesundergrantATM- J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2710, 1990.
8902207 and by the Division of Polar Programsunder grant DPP-
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R. A. HeelisandB. A. TinsIcy,Centerfor SpaceSciences,
Universityof Texasat Dallas, Box 830688, Mail StopFO22,
Richardson,TX 75083 -0688.
(Received July 9, 1992;
revised March 10, 1993;
accepted March 10, 1993.)