10 Mega Trends that are

(re)shaping our world

Simon Atkinson
1
Mega trends
…that are (re) shaping the world
1. Dynamic
Populations
The Global population
continues to grow

1976 2016 2050

4,136,542 7,431,209 9,725,148
Powered by high birth Niger 6,9
rates in some countries Mali
Burundi
6,2
6,1
Somalia 6,1
Uganda 6,0
Burkina Faso 6,0
Zambia 5,9
Malawi 5,8
India 2,5
UAE 2,4
South Africa 2,2
France 2,1
Turkey 2,1
United States 2,0
United Kingdom 1,9
Brazil 1,8
Australia 1,8
Russia 1,6
Canada 1,6
China 1,6
Japan 1,4
Germany 1,4
Big Changes Ahead.…
Estimated population from 2010 to 2050 in U.S. and Nigeria
500 MILLION
440 Million Nigeria

383
400
401 Million U.S.
363 351
300 338
312
273
200
210
160
100

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
But the global population is getting older

Median age (years), Estimates for 2010 and 2050

46
40 41 41 40
37 37
32
29
27
25
19

Asia Africa Latin America North America Europe Oceania

2010 2050
In 1950, life expectancy in China
was 40 years.
By 2050, this will have
risen to 80 years.
2. Growing
Opportunity and
Growing Inequality
Global population and
global middle class population

2009 2020 2030

6.8 billion 7.7 billion 8.3 billion
1.8 billion 3.2 billion 4.9 billion
By 2030, 66% of the
world’s middle classes
will be living in Asia
...which should be
no surprise to anyone!

There are more people

living inside this circle
than outside of it
Growing China 78%
Opportunity? Brazil 48%
Turkey 47%
Young in India 46%
developing Japan 41%
Russia 41%
countries are S Africa 41%
optimistic Total
Argentina
37%
34%
Sweden 32%
% of under 30s Australia 30%
who expect life Germany 30%
Poland 30%
to be better S Korea 27%
US 26%
Canada 24%
GB 22%
Italy 21%
Spain 16%
France 16%
Belgium 12%
 76 86 97 98 98 100 82 95
World Central & Central Asia East Asia &
Eastern Europe the Pacific

Objective (nearly) achieved?

Adult Literacy rates 1990-2015

86 93 55 79 53 66 47 70
Latin America Arab States Sub-Saharan South &
& the Caribbean Africa West Asia
50%
Internet usage: the point
where the web starts to
have a real impact on
economic development
60% of the global
population
has no internet
access
 Internet Users (2016) Non-Users (internetless)
1.600.000.000

1.400.000.000

1.200.000.000

1.000.000.000

800.000.000

600.000.000

400.000.000

200.000.000

0
 China 91%
Spain 86%
Growing Turkey 84%
Inequality? Germany
Russia
84%
83%
It worries us S Korea 81%
Italy 78%
Brazil 77%
% agree India 77%
Total 74%
Having large Belgium 73%
differences in Poland 72%
France 68%
income and Canada 68%
wealth is bad GB 67%
Argentina 67%
for society S Africa 64%
Australia
overall Sweden
64%
63%
Japan 60%
US 47%
3. Megacities
 66
54
44
34

1960 1993 2014 2050

% of the World’s population living in urban areas
The urban population is
increasing by...
50,000 a day
1.5 million
a month
(a city the size of Prague)
18 million
a year
(the population
of Chile)
Africa
Will gradually
replace Asia as
the region with
highest urban
growth rate
Africa
Lagos 21 million
Cairo 15 million
Kinshasa 9 million
City Living
A choice rather
than a necessity?
 Want to live in cities?
India
China
South Korea
Poland
South Africa
Turkey
Russia
Italy
Spain
Brazil
Germany
Sweden
Canada
US
France
Australia
GB
Argentina
Japan
Belgium
Have to live in cities?
 Tokyo 26.6 35.5 Tokyo
New York 15.9 21.9 Mumbai

Mexico City 10.7 21.6 Mexico City

Osaka-Kobe 9.8 20.5 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo 9.6 19.9 New York

Los Angeles 8.9 18.6 Delhi

Buenos Aires 8.7 17.2 Shanghai

Calcutta 7.9 17.0 Calcutta

Rio de Janeiro 7.6 16.8 Jakarta

Moscow 6.6 16.8 Dhaka

1975 2015
4. Increasing
connectedness and
decreasing privacy
 Cinema
Digital/ Viral
terrestrial video
TV Direct TV/
Online Online marketing Cinema
In game radio video
advertising Satellite
Analogue
TV
radio
Press
1980s Radio
Micro Direct
Social blogging marketing Digital
networking Augmented radio Posters/
profiles reality Billboards

Mobile
Direct
marketing Now Press
Search
ads
phone aps
Sponsorship Microsites
Direct Homepage
marketing takeovers
Email
PR marketing Posters Online
banners
Direct
mail Mobile Digital
phone Billboards
ads
60% of the global
population
has no internet
access
83% of global internet
users say access
to the web should
be a “basic
human right”
% agree France 79%
Spain 79%
I worry that Brazil 77%
companies can Poland 73%
Turkey 71%
access my posts Argentina 70%
on social S Africa
Belgium
70%
68%
networking sites China 68%
Total 66%
for information Canada 65%
about goods and S Korea 64%
Australia 63%
services I have India 63%
purchased Italy 63%
GB 63%
U.S. 62%
Germany 59%
Russia 56%
Sweden 51%
Japan 47%
And is it changing
our behaviour? 78%
“The level of ‘Facebook Home In China say they
interrupt, the could change are ‘constantly
sort of our brains’ looking at
overwhelming Susan Greenfield -
screens these
rapidity of Neuroscientist days’
information…
is in fact
affecting
cognition”
Eric Schmidt - Google
And is it changing
our behaviour? 79%
“The level of ‘Facebook Home Of Chinese
interrupt, the could change under 30s feel
sort of our brains’ “restless or
overwhelming Susan Greenfield -
uneasy” if they
rapidity of Neuroscientist don’t look at
information… their phone for
is in fact an hour
affecting
cognition”
Eric Schmidt - Google
5. Healthier
and sicker
Global life expectancy
is rising…
90 2015
Africa
85
80 Asia
75
70 Europe
65
60 Latin America and the
55 Caribbean

50 Northern America

45

1975 2100
But there is still
work to do…
91% now have access to
improved drinking water
2,000 child deaths
from diarrhoea in 2000

<1,000 today
 Millennium TARGET MISSED
700,000,000 people
1 in 3
of the World’s population
do not have access to
adequate sanitation facilities
Uncertainty #1
Can our healthcare
systems cope?
Uncertainty #1 Belgium 76%
GB 67%
Can our US 65%
Australia 64%
healthcare Sweden 63%
systems cope? France 63%
S Africa 59%
India 58%
Canada 57%
Argentina 53%
Spain 50%
Germany 50%
Total 47%
% good Japan 43%
How would you rate Turkey 35%
S Korea 34%
the quality of
Italy 26%
healthcare that you Brazil 19%
and your family have Poland 10%
access to in …? Russia 9%
Uncertainty #2
Our own
lifestyle choices
Most of the world's
population now lives in
countries where being
overweight or obese
kills more people than
being underweight
Turkey: we think 32% of us
“are overweight or obese”
Turkey 32% 65%
are overweight or obese
Uncertainty #3
Climate change
Uncertainty #3
Climate change
Globally, 70%
agree there’s solid
evidence the Earth
is getting warmer
Uncertainty #3 China 91%
Italy 84%
Climate change Argentina 83%
Turkey 81%
S Africa 80%
India 79%
Brazil 78%
S Korea 77%
Germany 75%
France 75%
Total 73%
Belgium 73%
Russia 71%
% agree Spain 70%
We are heading for Canada 67%
Sweden 65%
environmental disaster
Australia 60%
unless we change our Poland 59%
habits quickly GB 59%
Japan 59%
6. Rise of individual
choice and fracturing of
the mass market
Where was Apple
40 years ago…?
1976

2016
But big brands US 185
Japan 49
are not always Germany 33
American UK 32
France 31
China 28
Switzerland 19
Canada 14
South Korea 14
Netherlands 11
Spain 10
Brazil 9
Russia 8
Italy 8
Brand Finance Australia 8
Global 500 Italy 8
# home country of Sweden 8
each brand India 6
The mass market:
what we are used
to is changing
The mass market:
what we are used
to is changing

Example #1:
Motoring
The mass market:
what we are used
to is changing
Example #2:
Business
Presentations
A slide seen in business strategy presentations around the world...
A slide seen in business strategy presentations around the world...
7. Rise of the individual
and decline of
social cohesion
The “traditional”
family structures
are changing
No of marriages per 1,000 population (OECD Countries)

8
1970
52015
Single person
households are the
fastest-growing
household profile in
the period to 2030
 Single-person Households: the fastest growing
household profile in the period to 2030
31
27 28
24

9 11 11

Asia Middle Latin Australasia Eastern North Western

East & America Europe America Europe
Africa
Cause for
optimism?
societies are not
breaking down
“Crime against the
person and against
property is falling in
most rich countries”
The Economist
But crime is RISING Lower Middle High
in developing markets income
countries
income
countries
income
countries

% change Drug possession ! !

in different
types of crime, 2003- Drug Trafficking ! !
2013
Homicide !
! +50%
Burglary

! Vehicle theft !
Robbery ! !
-50%
Rape ! !
8. Cultural
convergence and
increasing extremes
1.4b

588m 527m 276m 389m

Chinese Hindi-Urdu English Arabic Spanish

Most native speakers

Cultural
convergence
 Case Study:
Those whose jobs
involve interactions
with other
countries
Languages
spoken with
English
colleagues from 67%
Spanish 5%
other countries Mandarin 4%
French 3%
German 2%
Arabic 2%
Hindi 2%
Italian 2%
2%
Russian
1%
Portugese
1%
Japanese
1%
Cantonese
1%
Polish
1%
Indonesian 1%
Turkish 1%
Korean 1%
Swedish 1%
Urdu 1%
 Case Study:
Spending our
free time at
the movies
English language continues to dominate
1975 & 2015
Jaws 1. Star Wars 7

The Rocky Horror Picture Show 2. Jurassic World

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest 3. Furious 7

The Wilderness Family 4. The Avengers: age of Ultron

Rollerball 5. Minions

Lucky Lady 6. Spectre

Rooster Cogburn ... and the Lady 7. Inside Out

The Streetfighter 8. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

At Long Last Love 9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Monty Python and the Holy Grail 10. The Martian

Cultural
diversity:
Is religion uniting
or dividing the
World?
Most people in India 98%
Turkey 94%
the world today S Africa 90%
identify with a Brazil
Poland
89%
88%
religion Argentina 85%
US 84%
Russia 82%
Italy 80%
Canada 74%
Total 71%
Australia 67%
Germany 62%
Belgium 61%
Spain 61%
S Korea 58%
GB 57%
Japan 55%
France 53%
Sweden 53%
China 52%
Globally:
65% agree
People have more
things in common
than things that make
them different
Turkey:
81% agree
People have more
things in common
than things that make
them different
Globally:
77% agree
We live in an
increasingly
dangerous world
Turkey:
89% agree
We live in an
increasingly
dangerous world
Globally:
56% agree
There are too many
immigrants
Turkey:
79% agree
There are too many
immigrants
9. Always on versus
off the grid
% agree S Africa 66%
Russia 66%
I feel under a lot India 60%
of pressure to be Turkey 53%
S Korea 52%
successful and Argentina 49%
make money Canada 49%
Total 46%
US 46%
Brazil 44%
Poland 42%
Australia 40%
Germany 40%
GB 39%
Spain 36%
Belgium 36%
France 33%
Japan 29%
Sweden 26%
Italy 25%
% agree Spain 88%
Canada 85%
It is more Italy 85%
important to France 84%
Belgium 84%
have a good Germany 82%
work-life GB 82%
Sweden 82%
balance than to Australia 82%
have a successful Total 80%
Turkey 80%
career S Africa 78%
Argentina 77%
US 77%
Poland 77%
India 75%
S Korea 75%
Russia 75%
Japan 74%
Brazil 71%
1/5
global employees
now work remotely,
at least some of
the time
In OECD countries, people are starting to work fewer hours

1,845 1,770

2000 2014
Hours worked per year
65% want to work for an
organisation
“with a powerful
social conscience”
“More or less all business started out with a social
purpose of some kind…
What’s been lost in recent decades is the
interconnectivity between the needs of society
and the innovative dynamism of business…
So the future may look more like a rediscovery of
this social purpose of business”
Paul Bakus, President of Corporate Affairs, Nestle
? Maybe we will
have more free
time on our hands
than we expect...
10. Emergence of
public opinion as
revolutionary force
Widespread Italy 84%
S Africa 84%
dissatisfaction Spain 82%
with how we France 73%
Poland 71%
are governed US 67%
Argentina 61%
Total 60%
GB 59%
Russia 59%
Turkey 59%
Brazil 59%
India 54%
S Korea 53%
Belgium 52%
Australia 47%
% dissatisfied Japan 46%
The way the Sweden 45%
government is Canada 43%
running the country Germany 41%
“The rapid growth of the precariat is
producing instabilities in society.
It is a dangerous class because it is
internally divided, leading to the
villainisation of migrants and other
vulnerable groups.
And its members may be
susceptible to the siren calls of
political extremism”
1
Mega trends
…that are (re) shaping the world
 Ageing The left Necessity Changing our New illnesses,
people? behind? not choice? behaviour? tired planet?

Will we enjoy How safe will More Work-life Where are

the ride? we feel? tension? balance? we heading?
Thank you
@SimonMAtkinson
simon.atkinson@ipsos.com