How Likely is the Price To Be Right?

The sample space for our project would be every single number on the wheel paired with
every single number on the wheel. For example, 5 would be paired with 5, 15 would be paired
with 15, 75 would be paired with 75, etc.
5 1 15 80 35 60 20 40 75 55 95 50 85 30 65 10 45 70 25 90
For our simple event A, we chose to find the probability of spinning a 75 on the first spin.
There is only one of each number on the wheel. There are 20 values on the wheel. So, the P(A)
is 1/20. In other words, there is a 1/20 chance of spinning a 75 on the first spin. When converted
to a decimal, the probability is equal to .05, or 5%. This number shows that the probability is not
very high. The P(A) tells us that spinning a 75 on the first spin is not likely to occur. However, 75
has the same likeliness of occurring as any other number on the wheel since there are the same
amount of each number, they are the same size, etc. A​c​, or the probability that A, or spinning a
75, does not happen. Therefore, A​c​ is the event that any other number on the wheel will be
spun. The value of A​c​ is .95, or 95%. We found this by subtracting .05, the probability of A to
occur, from 1. There is a 19/20 chance that a number that is not 75, or A​c​ will be spun. This
number tells us that A​c​,or a number other than 75, is much more likely to occur than rolling a 75.
When discussing the relationship between A and A​c​ , it is clear that the probability of A​c​ is much
more likely than A. This is because there is only one number within the value of A, whereas
there are 19 values within the value of A​c​.
For our simple event B, we chose to find the probability of spinning a 15 on the second
spin. There are 20 values on the wheel with no repeating numbers. Therefore, the P(B) is 1/20.
There is a 1/20 chance of spinning a 15 on the second spin. Since spinning the wheel is
independent, there is still a 1/20 chance of spinning a 15 on the second spin, instead of a 1/19
chance. There is a .05 or 5% chance of spinning a 15 on the second try. This probability is not
very high but this is the same chance that all of the other numbers have since there are no
repeating numbers. B​c​ is the event that any other number on the wheel will be spun which is .95
or 95%. To find this number, we subtracted .5 from, the probability of B to occur, from 1. This
means that there is a 19/20 chance that a number that is not 15, of B​c​ will be spun. This number
tells us that it is more likely for any other number on the wheel to be spun than the number 15.
You can see that the probability of B​c​ is a lot more likely to happen than B.
When two events are independent, it means that the outcome of one event has no effect
on the other. To be more specific, it means that the outcome of event A has no effect on the
outcome of event B. Two events are considered dependent if the outcome has an effect on the
next event. For example, pulling cards from a deck, and not replacing it, would affect the
probability of the next draw. Our events are not dependent because the outcome of the first spin
has no effect on the second. In our situation, the events are independent. The outcome of the
first spin has no effect on the outcome of the second spin. For example, spinning a 75 on the
first spin does not mean you cannot spin a 75 on the second. The events are independent,
meaning they have no influence on the other. To find the probability of P(A&B), we simply
multiplied the probability of each individual event together. Since the events are independent,
the probability of both events occurring is found through the formula P(A) x P(B). The probability
of event A, as we found, was 1/20, or .05. The probability for event B, as we found, was also
1/20, or .05. When multiplied together, the P(A&B) is 1/400, or .0025. This is a very low
probability, concluding the fact that spinning both of these amounts is highly unlikely. We were
able to decide which formula to use by first assessing the situation. In other words, once we
were told to find the probability of both A & B, we then had to decide whether or not to use the
independent or dependent formula. As mentioned above, the events were independent,
because one did not affect the other. This value represents the likelihood of spinning a 75 on
the first spin, and a 15 on the second. The very small number, .0025 expresses the likelihood,
or lack thereof, of these events both occurring. If the events would have been dependent, and
the outcomes would have been affected by the other, we would have used the formula P(B|A) or
P(A|B). These formulas mean that the probability of B would have been affected, given that A
already occurred. To contrast, the second formula is expressing the probability of A, given that
B already occurred. However, the events have no influence on each other and the dependent
formulas do not apply to us.
Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint if they cannot occur together, meaning that
there can be no overlapping. Both of our events, spinning a 75 and spinning a 15, are
considered mutually exclusive because they cannot occur together. We know this to be true
because when spinning a wheel you can only land on one number. There is no way to land on
both the 75 and 15 at the same time. Therefore, the two events, spinning a 75 and spinning a
15, are mutually exclusive. To find P(A or B) we used the equation P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B). The
probability of event A was 1/20 and the probability of B was 1/20. After plugging these numbers
into the equation, we found out that P(A or B)= 2/20, or simplified as 1/10. This means that there
is a 10% chance to either spin a 75 or spin a 15. We chose to use the equation P(A or B)= P(A)
+ P(B) because this is the equation you use if the events are mutually exclusive. We could not
use the other equation because that one is only for non-mutually exclusive events. If the events
were were not mutually exclusive, then we would have to subtract the overlap out of the total.
The Multiplication Rule of Counting states that if there are x amount of outcomes to one
event, and y amount of outcomes to another, then there are x multiplied by y outcomes of both
events. For example, if there are 4 outcomes to event A, and 2 outcomes to event B, then there
are a total of 8 outcomes possible. It is used to decide the number of possible outcomes
between several events. It can be used to determine the probability of something occurring, and
it is far more practical and organized than a tree diagram. An example of when the Multiplication
Rule of Counting is used is when a person is deciding what to wear. For example, if the person
has 200 shirts, 50 pairs of pants, 3 pairs of socks, 12 pairs of shoes, 4 belts, and 10 hats, the
Multiplication Rule of Counting can determine the number of possible outfits made with these
items. When multiplying all the numbers together, the answer is 14,400,000. This number
represents the amount of possible outfits that can be made. There are 14,400,000 different
options.
The Counting Rule for Permutations is defined as the number of ways to arrange in
order n distinct objects, taking them r at a time. In the Counting Rule for Permutations the order
matters unlike for the Counting rule for Combinations where the order does not matter. The
Counting Rule for Permutations is used to determine the amount of different outcomes from a
situation. One method to calculate The Counting Rule for Permutations is to use the nPr =
n!/(n-r)! equation. One example where The Counting Rule for Permutations might be used in a
situation where someone wants to see how many ways eight people can sit in five chairs. To
figure out how eight people can sit in five chairs, you can use the nPr = n!/(n-r)! equation. In this
example, the equation would be 8!/3! = 6720. Another way to get his answer would be to times
8, 7, 6, 5, and 4 all together. You can also type 8 nPr 5 into your calculator and also get 6720.
The Counting Rule for Combinations states that when selecting individual objects from a
selection, the order in which they were picked does not matter. The Counting Rule for
Combinations differs from the Counting Rule for Permutations in the way that the order does not
matter for combinations. The formula for The Counting Rule for Combination is C​n,r​=n!/r!(n-r)!.
This formula differs from that of a permutation because it is divided by r!. This rule is used to find
the number of outcomes in a situation in which order does not matter. One simple way to
calculate a combination is by finding the nCr button located under the MATH section of the
calculator. A combination can also be found by using the formula C​n,r​=n!/r!(n-r)!. An example of
when a combination would be used would be when randomly selecting 5 people to win a cash
prize of the same amount. No matter what order the people are drawn in, they will all win the
same amount. In a class of 20 people, in which 5 people are randomly selected to win $10, the
formula C​n,r​=n!/r!(n-r)! can be used to find the total number of outcomes. In this situation, the
answer is 15,504 different ways in which this cash prize could be given out.