Aidan Armstrong

12/16/18
Modern World History, period B

The Butterfly Proof

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in the early 1900’s initiated a chain of
conflicts that led to the world we live in today. In the early 1900s, European powers held certain
alliances with each other. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand sparked a massive
conflict between many allied countries, which would later be known as World War I. Militarism
also played a role in starting the war. The Germans suffered great losses until the warring nations
agreed to an armistice. Hitler rose to power after the armistice, and used these losses, among
other methods, to inspire hatred of various groups of people, namely Jewish people. The
Holocaust was the culmination of several years of this hatred festering and growing unchecked
by external forces. Adolf Hitler’s ruthless and efficient methods of genocide were inescapable
for many, but a lucky few escaped their fate and fled to safety in Allied nations. The Holocaust
ended soon after Hitler killed himself and Germany surrendered to the Allies under Soviet force.
Soon after Germany declared its surrender, American forces pressured Japan into surrendering
with brutally efficient island-hopping campaigns and, finally, two nuclear weapon detonations on
critical Japanese cities. Japan finally surrendered after the second nuclear detonation, and World
War II ended soon after. The nuclear detonations sparked the Cold War between the Soviet
Union and the United States, in which each side feared nuclear war and distrusted the other’s
form of government. The paranoia surrounding communism in America, called the ‘Red Scare’
in retrospect, led to a very conservative-leaning population in North America. This period of
conservatism ended in the 1960’s. The first step in undoing the regression was the Quiet
Revolution in Quebec, during which there was a drastic cultural, educational, and religious shift
towards liberalism. Eric Germain grew up in Quebec during this period. The Quiet Revolution
was the first of many such movements. Similar social, religious, and political revolutions
occurred all over the United States. Woodstock 1969 was a manifestation of such changes, where
thousands of young people gathered to listen to new and original music, use illegal drugs, and
protest a war the older generation saw to be necessary. These “revolutions” made the
generational gap visible at last. The Cold War also drew to a close soon after the United States
began to arm rebel groups in the Middle East against Soviet invasion. This led to the attacks on
the World Trade Center in 2001 and the dawn of the era of modern terrorism. Like the
hypothetical butterfly’s flapping wings creating a hurricane on the other side of the world, the
state of today’s world was determined entirely by the assassination of Archduke Franz
Ferdinand, and it proves not only that even a single relatively small incident can alter the course
of history forever, but also that war more often than not leads to more war rather than peace.
 Without the attempt on Franz Ferdinand’s life, there would have been no WWI to lead
into the rise of Hitler and WWII. WWI initially was a massive collection of nations wanting to
show off their military force​1​, but devolved into trench warfare which almost no one could win.
The trench warfare of WWI costed millions of dollars and lives​2​, before finally concluding in
1918. Every single country involved had a significant death toll. However, it soon became clear
that Germany was at the mercy of a select few countries. It had lost​3​. Germany suffered huge
debts and losses in the war​4​. All this carnage had been the result of a single assassination, and is
undoubtedly a very large and noticeable falling domino in the chain (which still extends even to
today).

In the trenches of WWI fought Adolf Hitler. He fought for German military in the
trenches, and spent a significant time in jail afterward. Hitler wrote the de-facto manifesto for his
regime while in prison​5​, out of a strong desire to restore Germany to its former glory at any and
every cost. He realized that the best way to unite people was to find someone for them to blame
for their struggles. His designated scapegoats were the Jewish, gay/bisexual, and Romani
populations of Europe, among other minorities. Germany was only in this dire state of affairs,
and only felt the need to find scapegoats, because of WWI and its results.

Hitler’s rise to power was made possible by WWI and its effects. If the Archduke had not
been assassinated, Germany would still have been the powerhouse it once had been, and Hitler
would never have written his infamous ​Mein Kampf. H ​ itler’s rule inspired other nations to take
part in fascism, namely Japan and Italy. While in power in Germany, Hitler carried out his
genocide in several death camps scattered throughout Central Europe. Six million Jews died in
these camps. Relatives of Jane Blackstone-Nugent were likely among them. Jane grew up in the
years following the Holocaust, and her own parents lived through it​6​. Albert Einstein was also
one of the lucky few who were able to escape to a safe country, which was in his case the US.
The Holocaust was a dreadful time for Jews all over the world, but it drew to a close soon after
Hitler committed suicide. Soviet forces stormed a German bunker in which Hitler and his wife
were hiding. Both of them committed suicide, crippling the Nazi regime​7​.

Meanwhile, the US was fighting in an island-hopping campaign in the Pacific islands,

inspired by a desire for vengeance. In 1941, the Japanese forces attacked the Pearl Harbor
military base in Hawaii and killed countless US soldiers and citizens​8​. This campaign ended with
the use of two atomic bombs against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This was made entirely possible
by the Holocaust, which had been a result of WWI’s aftermath, forcing Albert Einstein to come
to America​9​, where his theories about physics and chemistry were critical in the Manhattan
Project. The USSR had a particular interest in developing nuclear weapons for themselves after
witnessing their capability to reduce a city to nothing but radioactive ash. After a significant
amount of testing, the Soviet Union finally developed nuclear weapons of their own. The use of
nuclear weapons opened the floodgates for potential total annihilation within hours or days,
which sparked the Cold War​10​.

The Cold War was a silent war, fought not with weapons but with information and fear.
In this process, nearly everybody in the United States was paranoid about communism
infiltrating America​11​. This is evidence of Americans succumbing to the same fatal flaw of
Germans in the years leading up to WWII: they believed that the enemy was stronger than
themselves but still morally inferior. This paranoia about communism led to hypervigilance á la
McCarthy and also a brief era of extreme conservatism. During most of the 1950’s, Dwight D
Eisenhower, a Republican, was President. Societal norms at the time were that women were to
take care of housework and raise children, while men were to work all day and come home for
dinner​12​. Religion was a very prominent aspect of daily life and divorce was very much frowned
upon. Quebec culture was very similar, due to a very conservative Catholic politician, Maurice
Duplessis, serving as Premier​13​.

When John F. Kennedy was elected in 1960 in his presidential race against Richard
14​
Nixon​ , he began to usher in a new era in which significant social progress took place.
Similarly, in Quebec, the election of a liberal Premier brought significant progress to education,
religion, and culture. This period is known to Quebec inhabitants as the Quiet Revolution.
During this time, the economy grew, quality of education improved, and the government
distanced itself from allegiance to any specific religion​15​. According to Eric Germain, the Quiet
Revolution was as much a political change as a social change. “People were just becoming more
comfortable with who they are. Psychedelic drug use increased, there was a bit of a sexual
revolution happening simultaneously, and religion became less of a critical part in people’s
lives.”​16​ However, much of the social progress during this period in America took place among
the culture of young people protesting the Vietnam War. During this time, youth began
experimenting with drugs​17​, growing apart from religion, and really making decisions for
themselves​18​. The first Woodstock is a shining example of this. Children had been conditioned to
support the US government and especially its war against communism. This new generation
decided that peace was more important than victory at any cost, and many people from this
younger generation decided to protest​19​.

Several years later in the Cold War, the Soviet Union decided to attempt to invade
Afghanistan​20​. During this time, the President wanted the US to intervene without getting
involved too deeply, which was the mistake it had made in the Vietnam War. Their chosen
course of action was to train rebel groups which had already existed, and teach them that the US
was fighting the good fight before the Soviet forces could argue otherwise. If the US had not
gotten so irrevocably involved in the Vietnam War, they would have gladly sent American
military forces to Afghanistan in order to fight on behalf of its residents. The American
government sent some troops to Afghanistan in order to train them in the art of semi-organized
guerrilla warfare. These rebel groups received funding and weaponry, but were left to wage the
war for themselves. Leading up to and during the conflict, various political and social shifts in
the region sparked growth of fundamentalist Islam. After their conflict against the Soviet military
was finished, their hatred grew and festered, and many non-rebel citizens developed a hatred for
Western interference in their lives.

In 2001, al Qaeda militants hijacked a total of four planes and used them in attempts to
destroy buildings which were critical to US function and morale, including but not limited to the
Pentagon and the World Trade Center. The attack had been organized by a man named Osama
bin Laden, a man whose hatred grew from US interference in Middle Eastern affairs. The After
9/11, the United States began the hunt for Osama bin Laden and the fight against terrorist groups
they had trained. In 2011, a team of American soldiers finally ended the hunt and killed Osama
bin Laden. Al Qaeda has been crippled, but it is still active in the Middle East. However, as a
result of America’s laser-focus on al Qaeda, another terrorist group grew in the shadows, known
to most as ISIS​21​. The fight against ISIS has also started to calm down recently, but not after
years of conflict, suicide bombings, and shooting rampages.

In summary, all major conflicts from the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand until
now have been the result of events or aftermath from another prior war or conflict. The
assassination of the Archduke led to WWI. WWI led to economic recession in Germany and a
significant drop in German morale. These events in Germany led to the Holocaust and WWII by
way of Hitler and his mastery of public influence. The Nazi regime led to other fascist regimes
rising to power around the world. Japan’s conversion to fascism brought America into the war
due to the Pearl Harbor attacks. The Holocaust forced Albert Einstein out of his home in
Germany and brought him to the United States, where his theories helped construct the atomic
bomb. The creation and usage of the atomic bomb sparked the Cold War and American paranoia
about communism and its spread. This paranoia led to the Vietnam War. Significant losses in the
Vietnam War led the US to train native rebel groups in Afghanistan when Soviet threat loomed.
This training led to the era of modern terrorism, which is still happening. Each war leads back to
the previous war, beginning at WWI, like an elaborate chain of dominoes falling, or the
theoretical Butterfly Effect. The Butterfly Effect states that under very specific conditions, a
seemingly insignificant event can have large effects at a distance. This past century is a perfect
example of this principle of chaos theory. The man who killed the Archduke initiated a chain of
events that brought down the World Trade Center.

This chain of events is very important because no one truly knows what the long term
consequences of their actions might be, and it will be too late to do anything to stop the “domino
chain” once they begin to realize it is falling. Every single person on earth who can vote freely
must keep in mind the potential long-term consequences of each candidate. This past century
also proves that in the modern age, war is a product of war, and it is very difficult to stop the
chain when people value their own short-term victory over long-term peace. To conclude, the
long term consequences of war tend to include more war, and a single seemingly insignificant
event can completely remake the world, for better or for worse.
 Endnotes
1. Martin Kelly, "5 Key Causes of World War I," ThoughtCo, last modified July 11, 2018,
accessed December 19, 2018,
https://www.thoughtco.com/causes-that-led-to-world-war-i-105515.
2. ​"Aftermath of World War I and the Rise of Nazism, 1918-1933," United States
Holocaust Memorial Museum, last modified January 1, 2005, accessed December 19,
2018,
https://www.ushmm.org/learn/introduction-to-the-holocaust/path-to-nazi-genocide/chapte
r-1/aftermath-of-world-war-i-and-the-rise-of-nazism-1918-1933.
3. America's Library, "World War I Ended with the Treaty of Versailles June 28, 1919,"
America's Story, last modified January 1, 2005, accessed December 19, 2018,
http://www.americaslibrary.gov/jb/jazz/jb_jazz_ww1_1.html.
4. "Aftermath of World," United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.
5. Ibid.
6. Jane Blackstone-Nugent, interview by the author, Hamden, CT, December 13, 2018.
7. WETA, "Timeline of WWII," PBS, last modified September 27, 2007, accessed
December 19, 2018, ​https://www.pbs.org/thewar/at_war_timeline_1940.htm​.
8. Ibid.
9. WETA, "Timeline of Albert Einstein's Life," PBS, last modified July 1, 2005, accessed
December 19, 2018, ​https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/einstein/timeline/​.
10. A&E Television Network, "Cold War," History.com, last modified January 1, 2005,
accessed December 19, 2018, ​https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war​.
11. A&E Television Network, "Red Scare," History.com, last modified January 1, 2005,
accessed December 19, 2018, ​https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/red-scare​.
12. Oath, "What Life Was Like in the 1950s," Huffington Post, last modified January 22,
2017, accessed December 19, 2018,
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/quora/what-life-was-like-in-the_b_9052876.html​.
13. Gregory Baum, "Catholicism and Secularization of Quebec," ​CrossCurrents​ 36, no. 4
(1986-1987): , ​https://www.jstor.org/stable/24459103​.
14. A&E Television Network, "1960s," History.com, last modified January 1, 2014, accessed
December 19, 2018, ​https://www.history.com/topics/1960s​.
15. Baum, "Catholicism and Secularization,".
16. Eric Germain, interview by the author, 20 Ranch Road, Hamden, CT, December 3, 2018.
17. Jennifer Robison, "Decades of Drug Use: Data from the '60s and '70s," Gallup, last
modified July 2, 2002, accessed December 19, 2018,
https://news.gallup.com/poll/6331/decades-drug-use-data-from-60s-70s.aspx​.
18. A&E Television Network, "1960s," History.com.
19. History.com Editors, "Vietnam War Timeline," History.com, last modified January 1,
2010, accessed December 19, 2018,
https://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war/vietnam-war-timeline​.
20. The Editors of Encyclopaedia Brittanica, "Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan," Brittanica,
last modified January 1, 2010, accessed December 19, 2018,
https://www.britannica.com/event/Soviet-invasion-of-Afghanistan​.
21. CNN Library, "ISIS Fast Facts," CNN, last modified September 3, 2018, accessed
December 19, 2018, ​https://www.cnn.com/2014/08/08/world/isis-fast-facts/index.html​.
 Annotated Bibliography

A&E Television Network. "Cold War." History.com. Last modified January 1, 2005. Accessed
December 19, 2018. https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war.
This source will be useful in proving my point because it provides information about the Red
Scare, many of the sub-wars of the Cold War, and events in America in the meantime.

———. "1960s." History.com. Last modified January 1, 2014. Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://www.history.com/topics/1960s.
This source will help prove that in the 1960s, there was finally some social progress happening
in American culture among younger people.

———. "Red Scare." History.com. Last modified January 1, 2005. Accessed December 19,
2018. https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/red-scare.
This source will help prove that in the ‘50s, there was an era of paranoia surrounding
communism, as well as an era of conservatism accompanying this in America.

"Aftermath of World War I and the Rise of Nazism, 1918-1933." United States Holocaust
Memorial Museum. Last modified January 1, 2005. Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://www.ushmm.org/learn/introduction-to-the-holocaust/path-to-nazi-genocide/chapte
r-1/aftermath-of-world-war-i-and-the-rise-of-nazism-1918-1933​.
This source will help prove my point by proving that Germany’s dire state post-WWII directly
led to Nazi Germany, and by extension, WWII.

America's Library. "World War I Ended with the Treaty of Versailles June 28, 1919." America's
Story. Last modified January 1, 2005. Accessed December 19, 2018.
http://www.americaslibrary.gov/jb/jazz/jb_jazz_ww1_1.html​.
This source’s accuracy seems questionable due to a lack of author name and publication date, but
all the information it presents is consistent with other accounts. It will help prove my
point by proving that Germany’s economic struggles were a result of WWI.

Baum, Gregory. "Catholicism and Secularization of Quebec." ​CrossCurrents​ 36, no. 4

(1986-1987). ​https://www.jstor.org/stable/24459103​.
This will help prove my point because it proves that even seemingly irrelevant countries can be
and have been affected by global events, and even started trends among foreign
countries.

Blackstone-Nugent, Jane. Interview by the author. Hamden, CT. December 13, 2018.
This source will help prove my point by further proving that the Holocaust was a result of
countless years of buildup.

CNN Library. "ISIS Fast Facts." CNN. Last modified September 3, 2018. Accessed December
19, 2018. ​https://www.cnn.com/2014/08/08/world/isis-fast-facts/index.html​.
This source will help prove my point by emphasizing that excessive focus on al Qaeda led to the
growth of ISIS until it was a formidable force.
The Editors of Encyclopaedia Brittanica. "Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan." Brittanica. Last
modified January 1, 2010. Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Soviet-invasion-of-Afghanistan​.
This source will help prove that US strategy in Afghanistan was more focused on improving the
group’s that were already there and fighting, rather than sending troops to fight.

Einstein, Albert. Letter to Franklin Delano Roosevelt, August 2, 1939. Accessed December 19,
2018. ​http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Begin/Einstein.shtml​.
This source will help prove my point by proving that Einstein wanted the US to develop the
atomic bomb first.

Germain, Eric. Interview by the author. 20 Ranch Road, Hamden, CT. December 3, 2018.
This interview will help prove my point because it is proof that an international event can affect
families living in neither of the involved nations.

History.com Editors. "Osama bin Laden." History.com. Last modified January 1, 2009. Accessed
December 19, 2018. ​https://www.history.com/topics/21st-century/osama-bin-laden​.
This source will help prove that Osama bin Laden was radicalized further by excessive US
involvement in Middle Eastern affairs.

———. "Vietnam War Timeline." History.com. Last modified January 1, 2010. Accessed
December 19, 2018. ​https://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war/vietnam-war-timeline​.
This source will help prove that American involvement in Vietnam gradually increased, against
the desires of much of the population, which will in turn help prove that the US strategy
in Afghanistan was decided based on the unpopularity of the Vietnam War.

Jha, Alok. "E=mc2: Einstein's Equation That Gave Birth to the Atom Bomb." Guardian News.
Last modified April 5, 2014. Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/apr/05/einstein-equation-emc2-special-relativ
ity-alok-jha​.
This will help prove my point by proving that Einstein’s theories helped to develop the atomic
bomb.

Kelly, Martin. "5 Key Causes of World War I." ThoughtCo. Last modified July 11, 2018.
Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://www.thoughtco.com/causes-that-led-to-world-war-i-105515​.
This source will help prove my point because it details the causes of WWI, including the
assassination and the preceding militarism.

Oath. "What Life Was Like in the 1950s." Huffington Post. Last modified January 22, 2017.
Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/quora/what-life-was-like-in-the_b_9052876.html​.
This will help further prove that the 1950s were a very conservative-leaning era.
Robison, Jennifer. "Decades of Drug Use: Data from the '60s and '70s." Gallup. Last modified
July 2, 2002. Accessed December 19, 2018.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/6331/decades-drug-use-data-from-60s-70s.aspx​.
This, in combination with my uncle’s interview, will help prove that the US and Quebec were
going through similar social changes at similar times.

WETA. "Timeline of Albert Einstein's Life." PBS. Last modified July 1, 2005. Accessed
December 19, 2018. ​https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/einstein/timeline/​.
This will help prove my point because it helps prove that the Holocaust forced Einstein to come
to America and that Einstein’s theories helped to develop the nuclear bomb.

———. "Timeline of WWII." PBS. Last modified September 27, 2007. Accessed December 19,
2018. ​https://www.pbs.org/thewar/at_war_timeline_1940.htm​.
This will help prove my point by proving that the nuclear bombs were dropped on Japan due to
Japan dragging the US into the war with Pearl Harbor.