 Personal Income M/M represents the change in the total value of income received from all

sources by consumers. A potential rise in the income levels brings in a support to the
currency thus making the metals costlier to the investors. It is forecasted that nominally
+0.1 percent change is observed for the October month, bringing a neutral effect to the
metal prices.

China Non-Manufacturing PMI China Manufacturing PMI

55.50 52.50
55.00 51.90
54.80 54.90 54.90 54.90 52.00 51.50 51.40 51.50
55.00 51.20 51.30
54.60 51.50
54.40 50.80
54.50 54.20 51.00 50.60
54.00 50.50 50.30
54.00
50.00
53.50 49.50

 A one-month delayed Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to remain at the same

levels as seen in August which brings in a neutral effect to the metal prices. Similarly, an
observation is made that the Manufacturing PMI is to show a nominal downtrend by 0.2 to
50.6 in September from 50.8 in August. The contraction in PMI can be attributed to the
ongoing trade war which shall bring an effect to the currency markets, thus finally bringing

US ISM Manufacturing PMI 61.3 US Total Vehicle Sales

62.00 60.80 17.48 17.47
60.20 17.60 17.40
59.30 59.80 17.40
60.00 59.10 58.70 59.00 17.16 17.08 17.15 17.10
58.10 17.20
57.30 16.91
58.00 17.00 16.77 16.72
16.80
56.00 16.60
16.40
54.00 16.20

a little change in metal prices.

 The ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to witness a drop by 0.80 points for October
month to 59.00 from 59.8 of September. An indication for currency strengthening with
metals becoming costlier for the holder.
 A good opportunity to book short positions for the Aluminium investors may be seen as the
forecasted US total vehicle sales is set to drop to 17.10M in September month from 17.40M
in August. This is also supported by the leading economic indicator i.e., ISM Manufacturing
PMI.

 U.S Non-farm payroll, U.S Private Payroll and Unemployment rates together decide the
strength of the U.S dollar which as seen from the forecasts are to remain neutral towards the
end of coming week. Hence, metal prices are to remain in fixed range in the second trading
session of November.
 The U.S international trade balance is forecasted to decline further from -53.20 to -53.40, a
sign of increased imports, and weak dollar indicates a mixed effect on metal prices. Also,
positive bias seen in Q3-GDP of U.S largely brings in support to the mixed stance.
 The leading indicator US Factory Orders when looked in combination with the Core durable
goods orders released in previous week shall have a slight fall in metal prices towards the
end of week after a likely gain. The US factory orders is forecasted to fall to 0.30 percent
from 2.30 percent in September.