Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Asia Reassurance Initiative Act
Carlyle A. Thayer
December 27, 2018

We request your assessment of the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act that has passed
the Senate and the House of Representatives. What is the significance of this Act in
terms of U.S. policy in the Asia Pacific?
ANSWER: The Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018 (ARIA) has the objective of
requiring the Trump Administration to develop a long-term strategic vision and a
comprehensive, multifaceted, and principled United States policy for the Indo-Pacific
region It compliments and, in many respects, advances the more general U.S.
National Security Strategy released by the White House in late 2017 and the National
Defense Strategy released by the Pentagon in early 2018. But it also includes new
initiatives and priorities in the Indo-Pacific region.
The genesis of ARIA was a series of five hearings in 2017-18 held by the chairman of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committees Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific,
and International Cyber Security, Senator Cory Gardner (R Colorado). The ARIA Bill
was approved by the Senate on December 4, 2018 and was approved by a voice vote
in the House of Representatives on December 12, after amendment. The Senate
approved the amendment on December 19 and the Bill now awaits signature by
President Donald Trump [President Trump signed this Bill into law on January
2019].
Congressional Oversight of the Executive
The ARIA Bill is a good example of the U.S. Congress exercising oversight over the
Executive through authorizing expenditure for specific activities, requiring annual
reports on a number of security issues, and mandating specific strategies to achieve
U.S. objectives.
Eight Key Objectives. The ARIA Bill promotes the security interests of the United
States in the Indo-Pacific Region in eight major areas:
1. To advance U.S. foreign policy interests and objectives in the Indo-Pacific
region in recognition of the value of diplomatic initiatives and programs in
furtherance of United States strategy;
2. To improve the defense capacity and resiliency of partner nations to resist
coercion and deter and defend against security threats, including foreign
military financing and international military education and training programs;
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3. To conduct regular bilateral and multilateral engagements, particularly with

the United States most highly-capable allies and partners, to meet strategic
challenges [destabilizing activities by China and North Koreas nuclear and
ballistic missile programs];
4. To build new counterterrorism partnership programs in Southeast Asia to
combat the growing presence of ISIS and other terrorist organizations that
pose a significant threat to the United States, its allies, and its citizens
interests abroad;
5. To help partner countries strengthen their democratic systems, with a focus
on good governance;
6. To ensure that the regulatory environments for trade, infrastructure, and
investment in partner countries are transparent, open, and free of
corruption;
7. To encourage responsible natural resource management in partner countries,
which is closely associated with economic growth; and
8. To increase maritime domain awareness programs in South Asia and
Southeast Asia
Authorization of Appropriations. The ARIA Bill authorizes U.S. $1.5 billion dollars for
each fiscal year from 2019-2023 to the Department of State, U.S. Agency for
International Development and as appropriate the Department of Defense to
advance U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The ARIA Bill specifically earmarks
funding in five areas:
1. To promote democracy, civil society, human rights, rule of law, transparency
and accountability ($210 million);
2. To enhance cooperation between the United States and Indo-Pacific nations
for the purposes of combatting cyber security threats ($100 million);
3. To support Indo-Pacific young leaders initiatives [Young Southeast Asian
Leaders Initiative, ASEAN Youth Volunteers Program and other people-to-
people exchange programs that focus on building the capacity of democracy,
human rights and good governance activists] ($25 million);
4. To develop national power strategies in the Indo-Pacific ($1 million)
5. To support Human Rights Defenders ($1 million)
Annual Reports to Congress. The ARIA Bill also mandated annual reports by the
government and its agencies in seven areas: (1) strategic framework for engagement
with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN); (2) justification after
termination of any sanctions directed at North Korea; (3) strategy for negotiations
with North Korea on ballistic missiles; (4) terrorism in Southeast Asia including the
capabilities of the Islamic State In Iraq and Syria and Al Qaeda linked groups (ISIS); (5)
intellectual property protection with special reference to China; (6) regional
engagement through the Lower Mekong Initiative; and (7) Indo-Pacific human rights
defenders. Several of the mandatory reports also include the requirement to
develop a strategy and to report back on the implementation of this strategy.
Development of Strategies to Meet Objectives. Finally, in terms of oversight, the ARIA
Bill calls on the Trump Administration to develop strategies in four priority areas: (1)
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deepen trilateral security cooperation between the United States, South Korea and
Japan including missile defense, intelligence sharing, and other defense related
initiatives; (2) Indo-Pacific diplomatic strategy involving U.S. allies; (3) a
comprehensive, integrated and multilayer Indo-Pacific energy strategy; (4) an ASEAN
strategy to promote human rights, democracy, and good governance; and (5) a
strategy to address threats from North Korea.

Assessment

The ARIA Bill, when it is signed by the President, will play an important if not
decisive role in shaping U.S. national security policy towards the Indo-Pacific region
because only the U.S. Congress can appropriate funding and President Trump and
the Executive will be required to implement the law.

Support for Allies and Partners. First, the ARIA Bill unequivocally recognizes the vital
importance to the security of the United States of treaty allies (Japan, South Korea,
Australia, Philippines and Thailand), strategic partners (India), enhanced security
partnerships (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam) and commitment to
Taiwan. With respect to Taiwan, the Bill significantly calls for the transfer of defense
articles and high-level official visits.

In its discussion of the U.S.-Australia alliance, the ARIA Bill engages in a bit of
legislative legerdemain by referring to the Security Treaty Between Australia and the
United States by omitting New Zealand from the treatys official title Security
Treaty Between Australia, New Zealand and the United States (known colloquially as
ANZUS). In short, the drafters of the ARIA Bill missed an opportunity to suggest how
the U.S. could develop its defense and security ties with New Zealand in line with its
advocacy of similar measures for other states in the Indo-Pacific region.

The brief discussion of U.S.-New Zealand relations was relegated to a later section.
Here reference is made to the Wellington Declarations of November 2010 and June
2012 as the basis for bilateral commitments but not the original ANZUS Treaty of
September 1951.

The United States suspended its treaty obligations under ANZUS in 1986 after New
Zealand adopted a policy of prohibiting visits by nuclear-armed warships. The ANZUS
treaty has not been abrogated, however. At the same time, the ARIA Bill maintains
the fiction that Thailand is a treaty ally by referencing the defunct Southeast Asia
Collective Defense Treaty of September 1954.

The ARIA Bill highlights the U.S.-Republic of Korea-Japan Trilateral Security

Partnership and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (U.S., Australia, India and Japan),
but it omits any reference to the U.S.-Japan-Australia Trilateral Security Dialogue.

Key Security Challenges. Second, the ARIA Bill identifies three major security
challenges to the United States-backed international system:

Chinas illegal construction and militarization of artificial features in the South

China Sea and coercive economic practices.
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North Koreas acceleration of its nuclear and ballistic missiles capabilities; and
The increased presence throughout Southeast Asia of the Islamic State [ISIS]
and other international terrorist organizations that threaten the United States.

The ARIA Bill specifically mandates that its appropriations (see below) shall be made
available for United States Government efforts to counter the strategic influence of
the Peoples Republic of China The ARIA Bill:

(1) expresses grave concerns over Chinese actions that seek (a) to further
constrain space for civil society and religion within China; and (b) undermine a
rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region.
(2) encourages China to play a constructive role in world affairs by demonstrating
consistent respect for the rule of law and international norms;
(3) seeks to build a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship with China
(a) by expanding areas of cooperation; and (b) by addressing areas of
disagreement, including over human rights, economic policies, and maritime
security; and
(4) is committed to working with China on shared regional and global challenges,
especially (a) upholding and strengthening the rules-based international
system; and (b) the denuclearization of North Korea.

American Values. Third, the ARIA Bill elevates the importance of American values
(democracy, freedom of the press, universal human rights, good governance, the
rule of law) and international norms in shaping U.S. diplomatic strategy in the Indo-
Pacific region.

Specifically Title IV of the ARIA Bill expresses serious concern over the rule of law and
civil liberties in five countries Cambodia, China, North Korea, Laos, Thailand and
Vietnam. More significantly, the ARIA Bill highlights unacceptable human rights
developments in Myanmar, the Philippines and China. The Bill also prohibits the use
of funds for specific U.S. programs in Myanmar (International Military Education and
Training and Foreign Military Financing), the Philippines (counter narcotics assistance
to the Philippines National Police), and Cambodia (funding that benefits the
Government).

As noted above, the ARIA Bill allocates funding to support human rights defenders
who are defined as individuals working alone or in groups, who nonviolently
advocate for the promotion and protection of universally recognized human rights
and fundamental freedoms if the advocacy of such issues may result in the risk of
safety or life. The ARIA Bill also appropriates funds for people-to-people initiatives
that support these values.

Engagement with ASEAN. Fourth, the ARIA Bill unequivocally commits the United
States to engage ASEAN as a part of the regions problem-solving regional
architecture. The Bill highlights three central components of engagement, the
United States-ASEAN strategic partnership, countering terrorism in Southeast Asia
and capacity building for an ASEAN human rights strategy.
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Support for Multilateralism. Fifth, the ARIA Bill clearly endorses U.S. engagement in
multilateral approaches to issues such as natural resources, energy, and trade and
specifically supports the Lower Mekong Initiative. ARIAs endorsement of
multilateral trade agreements stands in stark contrast to Trumps advocacy of
bilateral free trade agreements.

The ARIA Bill states that Congress supports multilateral, bilateral, or regional
trade agreements that increase United States employment and expand the
economy The ARIA Bill recommends that, The President should seek to develop
to negotiate [sic] a comprehensive economic engagement framework with the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

The ARIA Bill also notes that Congress supports the proactive, strategic and
continuing high-level use of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the East
Asia Summit and the Group of 20 to pursue United States economic objectives in the
Indo-Pacific. It was notable that in 2018 President Trump failed to attend the APEC
leaders meeting and the East Asia Summit.

Conclusion

The Asia Reassurance Initiative Act 2018 received bipartisan support in both
chambers of the U.S. Congress. It is the first coherent U.S. diplomatic strategy for the
Indo-Pacific region. In continuity with past U.S. national security and defense
strategies, the ARIA Bill places priority on relations with treaty allies and strategic
partners across the Indo-Pacific region in addressing the challenges posed by Chinas
destabilizing activities including joint maritime training and freedom of navigation
operations in the Indo-Pacific region including the East China Sea and South China
Sea), combatting international terrorism, and North Koreas nuclear and ballistic
missile programs.

ARIA also places priority on upholding ASEANs centrality in regional affairs and
developing an effective engagement strategy. While critical of China, the ARIA Bill
also opens the door for cooperation between Beijing and Washington.

The ARIA Bill places American values at the heart of U.S. diplomacy democracy
promotions, human rights, good governance, and the rule of law. ARIA also
promotes legal and regulatory reforms to promote free and fair trade.

Finally, the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act will hold the Trump Administration,
including the Secretary of State, accountable for its implementation through funding
appropriations, annual reports to Congress, and the development and review of
strategies to meet the Bills objectives.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, Thayer

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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.