MTR

4400 – Final Project

February 6-10th 2017 Alberta Clipper Turned Bomb Nor’easter

Justin Richling

04/27/18

Introduction


For my final project I chose the February Nor’easter that started as an Alberta Clipper around the 6th
and bombed out on the 9-10th. Although the clipper is an interesting phenomenon, the primary focus
will be the development of the cyclone on the 9-10th when it reaches the typical baroclinic zone of the
east coast. The storm will be thoroughly examined here in numerous plots including satellite and
radar images. What is noteworthy is that the northeast had just some of the warmest days in the
books.

The data was taken from the NAM model runs with each day comprising of the corresponding gempak
file; all maps on the 9th were from the 00Z gempak file with 00, 06, 12, and 18Z sources, with the 10th
in the same fashion. On the following page is an outline of topics covered to analyze the cyclone.















1. Intro to storm
• Forecasts
Ø Snow Accumulation Probabilities
Ø MCD’s

2. UVM
• QG Omega
Ø Differential Vorticity Advection from Geostrophic Winds
Ø Temperature Advection from Geostrophic Winds
Ø Cancellations?
• Ways Around Cancellation
Ø PVA by Thermal Wind
Ø Q-Vectors – Convergence/Divergence
Ø Isentropic Analysis – Isosurface with winds
Ø Jet Streak Dynamics

3. Cyclone Lifetime
• QG Heights
Ø Absolute Vorticity Advection by Geostrophic Winds
Ø Differential Temperature Advection by Geostrophic Winds
• Self Development
Ø Feedback
Ø Braking Term
• Cyclogenesis
Ø PV Framework
Ø Bombogenesis

4. Frontogenesis
• Fronts and impact
Ø Kata or Anafront
Ø UL Fronts
• Kinematic Frontogenesis
Ø Shearing
Ø Confluence
Ø Tilting
Ø Diabatic
• Dynamic Frontogenesis
Ø Q-Vectors
Ø Frontal Circulations

5. Occluded Front or TROWAL



 Alberta Clipper Spawning Nor’easter Bomb Cyclone

Around February the 6th a strong system south of Alberta, Canada developed with subsequent motion
being quickly southeastern into the continental US. In doing so, the low organized with several
companion lows as it reached the mid west. The corresponding cold front spawned several lows as it
tracked across the east coast states. Early on the 9th a low organized around Virginia with a
companion low off in the Atlantic Ocean. This new low over Virginia developed quickly as it trekked
through the baroclinic zone of the east coast and the pre-existing cold dry Canadian air encounters
the warm moist air of the ocean with a near 20 degree difference.

The plots below are the series of MSLP maps from 06Z on the 6th through 06Z of the 9th from the NAM
model runs. After 06Z on the 9th the surface low over Virginia will be the storm of interest as it
develops off the east coast.












The forecasters were quick to understand the potential for a Nor’easter as the upper and mid levels
were favorable for intensification. The SPC put out a two blizzard warnings and large snow
accumulation probabilities for the Northeast.

After the storm had moved north, it left significant snow along with high winds resulting in a
noticeable impact on roads and particularly flights. There were 2400 flights cancelled along with
reduced speed limits in New Jersey as they experienced 145 accidents by midnight on the 9th.

The figures below are the WPC 24-hour snow accumulation total amount probability forecasts for 4,
8, and 12-inch accumulations. It’s apparent that they were giving the northern part of New England at
least 4 inches and still a good chance of 8 inches over the 9th. The final forecast is for at least 12
inches, which is fairly low with a few pockets of 40%, mainly the bay off Massachusetts and north of
Long Island, New York right over Rhode Island.


WPC Snow Accumulation Probabilities















4” 8” 12”
Accumulat













The SPC forecasted 3 Mesoscale outlooks, two pertaining blizzard conditions and the third for heavy
banded snow events. The first blizzard warning was for the Long Island, New York, Connecticut, and
Massachusetts. The Second warning was for Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts and southeastern
Maine. Below the warning are the plots of 6-hour precipitation (since snow isn’t available in model
runs) and surface winds. It is clear that the heaviest precipitation occurrences are within the warning
zones and the surface winds are very strong within the precipitation regions with winds of 30-40
knots.
















th th
9 18Z – Precip and Srfc Winds 10 00Z – Precip and Srfc Winds


The Mesoscale discussion of the heavy banded snow for 4 AM, 7 AM, and 1 PM were fairly well
forecast as the bands fell in the vicinity the forecasted guessed with only slight time difference and
location just north of forecast area.

th th th
4 AM on the 9 7 AM on the 9 1 PM on the 9
 QG Omega

Looking for upward vertical motion, the QG Omega will be a rough estimate, but usually reliable to
diagnose UVM and thus precipitation. In the plots below, the left frames are the differential vorticity
advection plots with PVA in orange and NVA in green. The center frames are temperature advection
with red being WAA and blue CAA. Finally, the right frames are the vertical velocity (omega) plots
with UVM in purple and DVM in green with precipitation plots to highlight the effectiveness of the
UVM. The differential vorticity advection was taken at the 500mb level as a layer average. The
temperature advection was taken at the 850mb level.

On the 06Z time step of the 9th, there is a small amount of WAA around eastern Pennsylvania and
some PV near west Pennsylvania so this could be a place of UVM, which the omega plot seems to
suggest.











The 12Z plots show some possible cancellations around Maryland with PVA and CAA, but the omega
plot suggests UVM and some DVM over Georgia with CAA and NVA.











Finally at the 18Z time the area of Rhode Island, Connecticut and Long Island, NY have a good show of
WAA and PVA with the omega plot agreeing very well; the main forecast region for severe weather.





 QG Omega Cancellations
Q-Vector Divergence/Convergence

Since the QG Omega equation is an estimate and this case ran into some cancellation issues above, the
ways around the cancellation are applied. The Q-Vector convergence/divergence below is one way to
check. The areas of orange are divergence and green is convergence and the red vectors are the
850mb Q-Vectors.

The regions of convergence over Maryland at the 06Z time line up nicely with the omega plot. The 12Z
time shows the convergence a bit further off the coast then the omega plot, but it is still within a
reasonable area. Finally at the 18Z time, the strongest convergence of the vectors is further still off
the coast than the maximum of the UVM on the omega plot. Although there is some agreement, the Q-
Vectors analysis wasn’t overly convincing in getting around the OG cancellations, but clearly when
compared to the QG Omega plots above, the UVM lines up much cleaner with the Q vector divergence.



PVA by the Thermal Wind

Turning to the advection of the absolute vorticity by the thermal wind as a different check of UVM
shows 1000-500mb thickness contours and vorticity (color filled) with red arrows as prediction for
location of UVM. The argument around cancellation was a bit more convincing in this scheme.
Following the thickness lines the vorticity will tend to the northeast, with the strength of the absolute
vorticity increasing over time so the PVA would seem to follow suit. As a slight rebuke to the QG
Omega cancellation/UVM, this appears to dictate the UVM found in the omega plots fig XX more so.












 Jet Streak Dynamics

Looking at the jet stream at 250mb as a different view into the invalidating of the cancellation term,
the surface low could be considered in a promising location of the streaks. At 06Z the low above
Virginia is sitting in the left exit of the local jet streak, as there is a gradient of wind speed. As the time
progresses through the end of the 9th UTC time, the jet streak increases ahead of the surface low and
eventually is directly over it. The jet streak dynamics is not as straightforward as the ideal situation as
the storm is not really interacting with a jet streak.



























 Isentropic Analysis

The images below are potential temperature isosurface plotted at 305 K colored by geopotential
height with 850mb winds. At the 06Z time step the east coast shows a nice gradient of potential
temperatures with indication that some of the winds are going down hill around Virginia, West
Virginia, and Kentucky, with the series of mixing ratio plots beneath it, which when combined
corresponds to the area of UVM in the omega plots at the very bottom.

As the storm evolves the isosurface begins to wrap up a bit in the 12Z time step with the surface
winds beginning to turn and go uphill off New Jersey and Long Island, New York. As the storm evolves
at the 18Z time, the isosurface has gotten a much more tight wrap around Massachusetts and
southern Maine. Here the surface winds are clearly turning inward towards land and thus uphill of the
potential temperature surface.

From the omega plots at the bottom series of images, the isentropic analysis with mixing ratios shows
adequate agreement with UVM.
 QG Height Tendencies

The QG Height equation represents the propagation and development of the 500mb heights with PVA
plus WAA leading to height falls and NVA plus CAA to height rises with the diabatic term leading to
height rises as well from a positive change in energy.

In the plots below the left set of frames are: absolute vorticity advection by the geostrophic winds at
850mb (left), layer averaged temperature advection at 700mb (center), and 6-hour precipitation
(right). The right most frame is the following time step for the 500mb height to indicate the change.

Initially at 06Z, the surface low begins with the slight WAA plus some PVA around the southern
Appalachian states, plus some precipitation indicating this initiates the slight digging of the 500mb
trough.










As the next time step approaches the surface low has begun to develop more as it leaves the land and
heads to the warmer ocean with more water vapor available. From 18 to 00Z on the 10th the surface
low has now gone over the ocean and significantly picked in the WAA ahead of the storm with the PVA
in the same general location.











Now the 500mb heights have begun to react in the 12-18Z times; the heights have tightened a bit and
the trough flattened out with clear indication of the ridge beginning build to the northeast.





 Self-Development

For the self-development term the left set of images are surface temperatures, winds and pressure,
the center set are 1000mb winds (blue) with 500mb winds (red) and MSLP, and the right set of
images are the following time step of 500mb heights to show development of the trough and ridge.

Initially the primary low over Virginia shows clearly warm air ahead of the low with WAA from
veering winds and cold air trailing the low with CAA from the backing of the winds. Also note leading
up to 18Z, there is some CAA in between the low out in the ocean and the one developing on the coast.

Once the low out in the Atlantic finally succumbs, the low on the east coast is now the dominant
synoptic feature. The CAA in the ocean halts and now it is a rich region for the warm air to be
entrenched into the WAA that is developing quickly. The 500mb heights begin to bend and elongate
the base of the upper level trough, tightening the isobars in the process.

Now the tightening of the upper level can be seen in the lower level by the increased surface winds
and tighter temperature gradient which will increase the advection of warm an cold air in to their
respective temperature regimes. As the storm evolves in time the 500mb ridge tightens and becomes
more vertical, resulting in lifting the trough.









 Braking Term

The series of pots below are of the 850mb mixing ratio with MSLP and winds, with the bottom set of
images having relative humidity plotted. The surface low has initially begun to slowly draw in the
higher mixing ratios. As time progresses the low moves further into the ocean and draws more
moisture. In addition, the leading edge of the storm is essentially over saturated areas as indicated by
the relative humidity plots so there is good probability that the braking term is insignificant or at least
lesser than the other development terms. The raking term probably isn’t totally ignored initially due
to the secondary low in the Atlantic Ocean bringing in some dry cold air from up north as indicated by
the yellow colors in the relative humidity plots. However, as the secondary low is either absorbed or
dissipated, the cold air advection ahead of the main low is ceased and RH becomes more saturated.
This is evident around 12-18Z, which coincides with the greatest pressure drops of the low.























 Cyclogenesis


In the potential vorticity framework, the following plots are 3d isosurface of potential vorticity at 1.5
PVU, colored by geopotential heights with greens/blues lower heights and reds/pinks higher heights.
The images below show plan view of PV surface with clear indication of the dynamic tropopause
extrusions in likeness to surface trough moving across the continental US.















The following set of images below show an angled side view off the northeast coast. The initial time
steps at 06Z of the 9th show a small lower PV developing on the surface near the area of the surface low.
As time progresses to the 18Z the lower PV has grown significantly as the surface low is clearly
developing leading to the diabatic maximum of PV. As the storm progresses further in time, the surface
low strengthens further at 06Z on the 10th. Alongside the development, the lower PV also strengthens
significantly. Throughout the time series the upper and lower PV eventually develop mutually and
move in similar fashions. This is in clear agreement with the storm evolving and strengthening from
both the phase locking and lower diabatic maximum along with the warm air anomaly.















 Conveyor Belts

The series of radar and satellite images with surface analysis from the Unisys archive help roughly
highlight the different conveyor belts in action. As the cold front moves through the east coast, the dry
slot becomes apparent as the clouds dissipate from the subsidence of postfrontal movement,
specifically around 12 and 18Z of the 9th. The radar reflectivity helps show the warm sector and thus
the arm conveyor belt pulling warm moist air in from the Gulf of Mexico. To the north, it is hard to
discern the cold conveyor belt without obvious surface analysis of temperatures, but the wrapping of
the clouds should indicate the northeast to southwest rotation of the storm.
















 The images to the left are PV cross-
sections at 1.5 PVU with potential
temperatures (left frames) and wind
speeds (right frames) for 06Z on the
9th through 00Z on the 10th. As the PV
is transferred down in the
atmosphere, the surface fronts begin
to increase seen as the isentropes
tightening and becoming more
vertical at the surface. The
Subtropical Jet is also highlighted in
the right frames where the wind
contours (red) are tightening as well
and align nicely with the dynamic
tropopause, observed with the areas
of vertical tightening of the
isentropes high in the atmosphere.

The surface low experiences the
influence from the upper air and
begins to deepen. This behavior can
be seen as the development of the
surface blob of PV.
























 Bomb Cyclone

As the surface low begins to strengthen over Virginia at 06Z on the 9th, the pressure falls off rapidly
starting at 1003mb. At 12Z the center of the low is now roughly 995mb and moving off the east coast.
The support described earlier has now tightened the low even more at 18Z with a central pressure of
986mb and signals that it will continue to deepen from the upper and mid level support. By 00Z on the
10th, the low has now reached 977mb and has organized well and by 06Z has fallen to approximately
974mb. In the 24-hour span the surface low has dropped from 1003 to 974mb, a roughly 30mb drop,
which fits the definition of bombing out.



























The boundary layer feedback is apparent as the cold air from Canada quickly comes into contact with
the warm moist air of the coast. The sensible heat picked up from the moist ocean fuels the storm.
With the low level jet providing moist air and the UVM ahead of the storm latent heat was continually
being released as the cloud formation consistently developed.




Frontogenesis

Kinematic Frontogenesis


The left set of images is potential
temperature contours at 1000mb
with surface winds. The right set is
frontogenesis function with surface
winds as well.

In each of the time steps the
isentropes clearly show a cold front
moving and developing around the
east coast. The surface winds clearly
show shearing in the southeast of the
US with some confluence in the more
northern part of the cold front
around the northeast. Both tend to
line up well with the frontogenesis
function around the cold front.





















Dynamic Frontogenesis

The images on the left are the 850mb

Q-Vectors plotted against
temperature contours with
corresponding frontogenesis
function plotted in the images on the
right. The Q-Vectors in the 06Z time
clearly show that they are crossing
from cold to warm around Virginia,
which line up nicely with the
strongest frontogenesis.

The 12Z time displays the evolution
of the frontogenesis as the Q-Vectors
are now stronger and continue to
point from cold to warm off the coast
of New Jersey, again lining up very
well with the frontogenesis.

Finally, the 18Z plots follow the
evolution of the fronts as the Q-
Vector are now crossing the
temperature contours with stronger
indication off the coast of
Massachusetts.



Upper Level Fronts

As was seen with the potential vorticity framework of cyclogenesis, the vertical cross sections below
show wonderful development with the upper level front associated with the PV extrusion extending
down towards the surface and behind the surface PV. In addition, the isentropes help highlight the
Polar Jet with tightening of the contours in the mid and upper levels.

 Ageostrophic Circulation

The cross section below over the cold front at 06 and 12Z on the 9th shows the ageostrophic circulation
well. Ahead of the front there is UVM and behind the front has DVM. The ageostrophic winds at the
surface hint at pointing at the front and a general easterly flow aloft which acts to push the isentropes
together at the surface and bow over the upper part of the isentropes in the mid level. Combined with
the vertical motions, the plots of ageostrophic winds highly suggest a thermally direct circulation
around the front especially at the 12Z time, which is when the surface low begins to really develop and
thus the fronts as well.


































 Occlusion and the TROWAL

When looking for the occlusion and possible trough of warm air aloft, the time steps covered were
further in time than the analyses from above; set for 18Z on the 9th through 12Z on the 10th when the
storm takes a more due north path, which will bring it back over cold dry land of Eastern Canada.
Plotted below are potential temperature isosurface colored by geopotential heights with surface
analysis inlaid (left) and 6-hour precipitation plots (center) with vertical cross section of temperature
in degrees Celsius (right).

At 18Z on the 9th, the surface analysis shows the occluded front hasn’t quite developed yet, and the
cross section of temperature shows there is warm air being lifted, but not quite above cold air.
















The 00Z time step of the 10th shows some wrapping of the potential temperature surface, which is a
good indication of the fronts wrapping as well. As is clear from the vertical cross section there is a
pocket of warm air aloft over a small area of cold air. This signals the TROWAL is forming and from
the surface analysis there is a presence of a small occluded front. Looking at the 6-hour precipitation,
the location of the maximum is within the area of the TROWAL, as should be expected.
Finally as the storm moves through Canada the potential temperature surface wraps up a bit more
with the surface analysis indicating the occluded front evolving. The vertical cross section continues
the story from the previous time step with the warm air aloft becoming more isolated from the
surface and the cold air being entrained underneath the pocket of warm air.

 Conclusion

From the various and numerous plots throughout this case study several key topics associated with
our course this semester have help highlight the development and evolution of a surface cyclone.
When examining the UVM of the QG Omega equation there were numerous areas of cancellation,
which were further evaluated and argued in the other forms of UVM, not related to QG processes. The
QG Heights equation helped forecast with decent accuracy the evolution of the ridges and trough at
the mid level, consistent with our understandings. Evaluating the self-development concepts gave a
wonderful explanation of how the upper, middle and lower levels interacted and showed clear
positive feedback once the storm reached the baroclinic zone of the east coast. When turning to
cyclogenesis, the cyclone seemed to follow fairly well in its development in the PV framework with
the lower diabatic PV increasing significantly through latent heat release and phase locking with the
upper level PV. In addition, the vertical cross sections of PV, winds and potential temperatures helped
highlight the Polar Jet, the surface fronts and the dynamic tropopause very well. When evaluating
frontogenesis the key processes of shearing and confluence helped show how the fronts evolved even
though the system was mostly dominated by cyclogenesis. The dynamic framework of frontogenesis
really helped show that the Q-Vectors were pointing in the correct directions for the development of
the fronts and especially the ageostrophic winds with omega vertical cross sections demonstrated
wonderful thermally direct circulation around the cold front. Finally, the potential temperature
isosurface and vertical cross section of temperature allowed for investigation of the occluded front
and more specifically the TROWAL and precipitation indicating the beginning of the wrap up of the
storm.

In addition, the forecasts were very close to actual events from the blizzard warning to the heavy
banded snow. The total accumulation was very close, but a bit underestimated for the northern states.

Overall the case study showed some promising comparisons for most of the topics we covered
throughout the semester and few topics that weren’t so clear-cut.