NATO official: Bin Laden, deputy hiding in northwest

Pakistan
By Barbara Starr, CNN October 18, 2010 -- Updated 1749 GMT (0149 HKT)

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• "Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave," official says

• The leadership is living in relative comfort, he says
• Bin Laden likely moved around in an area of rugged terrain
• U.S. special envoy says there's nothing new to the report

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri
are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan, but
are not together, a senior NATO official said.

"Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave," said the official, who declined to be

named because of the sensitivity of the intelligence matters involved.

Rather, al Qaeda's top leadership is believed to be living in relative comfort,

protected by locals and some members of the Pakistani intelligence services, the
official said.

Pakistan has repeatedly denied protecting members of the al Qaeda leadership.

The official said the general region where bin Laden is likely to have moved
around in recent years ranges from the mountainous Chitral area in the far
northwest near the Chinese border, to the Kurram Valley, which adjoins
Afghanistan's Tora Bora, one of the Taliban strongholds during the U.S. invasion
in 2001.

Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri
are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan, but
are not together, a senior NATO official said.

"Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave," said the official, who declined to be

named because of the sensitivity of the intelligence matters involved.

Rather, al Qaeda's top leadership is believed to be living in relative comfort,

protected by locals and some members of the Pakistani intelligence services, the
official said.

Pakistan has repeatedly denied protecting members of the al Qaeda leadership.

The official said the general region where bin Laden is likely to have moved
around in recent years ranges from the mountainous Chitral area in the far
northwest near the Chinese border, to the Kurram Valley, which adjoins
Afghanistan's Tora Bora, one of the Taliban strongholds during the U.S. invasion
in 2001.

NATO Official: Bin Laden in NW Pakistan

Tora Bora is also the region from which bin Laden is believed to have escaped
during a U.S. bombing raid in late 2001. U.S. officials have long said there have
been no confirmed sightings of bin Laden or Zawahiri for several years.

The area that the official described covers hundreds of square miles of some of
the most rugged terrain in Pakistan, inhabited by fiercely independent tribes.

The official also confirmed the U.S. assessment that Mullah Omar, the leader of
the Taliban, has moved between the cities of Quetta and Karachi in Pakistan over
the last several months.

The official would not discuss how the coalition has come to know any of this
information, but he has access to some of the most sensitive information in the
NATO alliance.
Analysis: The finger is being pointed at Pakistan

However, Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan,
said there was nothing new to what the official was saying.

"We hardly have a day that goes by where somebody doesn't say they know
where Osama bin Laden is," said Holbrooke, who was in Rome, Italy, for a
conference on Afghanistan.

Another U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the exact
locations for bin Laden and Zawahiri are unknown, other than that they are
"somewhere in the tribal areas of Pakistan near the Afghanistan border."

"If we knew where he was -- in a house, an apartment, a villa or an underground

cave or bunker -- we would have gotten him," said the official. "We can't rule out
he may be in a cave one day and a house in a city on another."

The official referred to CIA Director Leon Panetta's comment a few months ago
that the United States has not had any precise information about bin Laden's
whereabouts for many years.

"He is, as is obvious, in very deep hiding," Panetta said. "He's in an area of the
tribal areas of Pakistan that is very difficult."

As for Pakistan's role, Holbrooke said it was ultimately up to Islamabad to decide

how to craft its fight against militants.

"The United States and our allies -- all would encourage them to do as much as
they are able to do," Holbrooke said. "There's been a long discussion about
whether ... they would go into other parts of the border area. That is for them to
decide on the basis of their resources."

Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik said Monday that similar reports of bin
Laden and Mullah Omar's whereabouts have proven false in the past.

Malik denied the two men are on Pakistani soil, but said that any information to
the contrary should be shared with Pakistani officials so that they can take
"immediate action" to arrest the pair.

The NATO official, who has day-to-day senior responsibilities for the war, offered
a potentially grimmer view than what has been publicly offered by others.

"Every year the insurgency can generate more and more manpower," despite
coalition military attacks, he said.
Although there has been security progress in areas where coalition forces are
stationed, he said in other areas, "we don't know what's going on."

He pointed to an internal assessment that there are 500,000 to 1 million

"disaffected" men between the ages of 15 and 25 in the Afghan-Pakistan border
region. Most are Afghan Pashtuns, and they make up some of the 95 percent of
the insurgency who carry out attacks just to earn money, rather than to fight for a
hard-core Taliban ideology, he said.

The official said it is now absolutely vital for the Afghan government to address
the needs of this group with security, economic development and jobs in order
for the war to end and for Afghanistan to succeed.

"We are running out of time," he said.

In recent days, Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has
made a number of public statements expressing some optimism about the
progress of the war. Petraeus "doesn't think time is running out, " his
spokesman, Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, told CNN.

The NATO official said the entire scenario is made more complex by the fact that
"there is a huge criminal enterprise" in Afghanistan, dealing in human, drug and
mineral trafficking. Those crimes are also tied in to the insurgency.

He acknowledged the overall strategy now is to increase offensive airstrikes and

ground attacks in order to increase the pressure on the Taliban and insurgent
groups to come to the negotiating table with the current Afghan government.

There is a growing sense that many insurgent leaders may be willing to accept
conditions such as renouncing al Qaeda because they want to come back to
Afghanistan.

But, the official cautioned, hard-core Taliban groups such as the Quetta Shura
run by Mullah Omar, the Haqqanis, the HiG (Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin) and the
Pakistani Taliban still could potentially muster as many as 30,000 fighters.

The U.S. continues to face a more localized insurgency in the south. In places like
Marja and the Helmand River Valley, the majority of the fighters captured are
within a few miles of their homes.

The insurgent leader Mullah Abdullah Zakir has increased his strength in the
south, the official said. He essentially exerts some levels of control and influence
both in the greater Kandahar region and across the south from Zabul to Farah
province.
The official continued to stress the urgency of getting the Afghan government to
deal with the multitude of problems it faces.

Right now, the U.S. war plan approved by President Barack Obama extends
through 2014, the official said. That is the official document that spells out
matters such as troop rotation schedules.

The U.S. military could sustain a war "'indefinitely," the official said. But the goal
is to achieve reconciliation and allow the Afghan government to function and
provide security and services to the people.

Without that, he said, "we will be fighting here forever."

CNN's Hada Messia in Rome, Italy, and Pam Benson in Washington contributed to this
report.

Analysis: NATO points finger at Pakistan

By Nic Robertson, CNN Senior International Correspondent October 18, 2010 --
Updated 1759 GMT (0159 HKT)

Osama bin Laden (left) and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Pakistan has its own goals for Afghanistan's future

NATO statement is partly to pressure Pakistan

Successful drone attacks in isolated areas are worrying Taliban and al Qaeda
leaders

If bin Laden is in urban area, the risk of NATO attack killing innocent people is
higher

A senior NATO official says Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri
are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan.
CNN's Nic Robertson explains the significance.

(CNN) -- Why is NATO doing this now?

A lot of what has been said is common sense and common knowledge among
officials working in the Afghan theater. What is different is it's a growing pressure
on Pakistan and its role.

We had the information before about Osama bin Laden being close to Ayman al-
Zawahiri, and it's been clear for a while he has not been living in a cave. It is not
clear yet why a NATO official is saying this now.

The sense, behind the scenes, is Pakistan is believed to be coming towards the
negotiating table and behind the Taliban, as it begins to talk to the Afghan
government.

Pakistan has its own set of desires for the outcome in Afghanistan -- and they are
trying to achieve these demands behinds the scenes, we are led to believe, in
association with the U.S. and Afghanistan.

It seems hardly surprising that there would be more pressure on Pakistan to

provide what the U.S. and NATO wants, which is Osama bin Laden to be handed
over.

Has the West or NATO done anything like this before?

Video: NATO Official: Bin Laden in NW Pakistan

This is the first time in many, many years that the finger has been pointed so
blatantly at Pakistan. If you look at Bob Woodward's book "Obama's War," one of
the things Barack Obama has wanted to do is point the finger at Pakistan and say
"the problem is there" whether it is terror training camps or home to bin Laden.

It seems to be part of an effort to put the focus on Pakistan.

Why is it now thought bin Laden is in a town?

Both the Taliban and al Qaeda, in conversations that have been intercepted, are
saying that the drone strikes on isolated houses are proving quite effective.

It is clear that this is a worry for the grassroot jihadists and more so for the
leadership who are less expendable.

It is safer to be living in a more urban environment because the risk of collateral

damage -- innocent lives -- is higher.

We have seen the Taliban moving to Karachi, and Pakistan media has reported
members of al Qaeda living there also.

Given the rate of drone attacks, it is no surprise they would feel safer among
people.

Why would bin Laden get protection?

Nobody wants to turn in what many people see as a hero of Islam. These people
would also not be swayed by reward money.

There would also be reams of security around bin Laden so few people would
actually know where he is living.

Some in the Pakistan intelligence services are believed by some other

intelligence services as having a very radical Islamist view sympathetic to bin
Laden.

What does Pakistan want?

The Taliban leaders are bargaining chips for Pakistan's goal, which is regional
security. That includes India having less influence in Afghanistan.

A more influential India would leave Pakistan feeling surrounded by Indian

interests.

Pakistan ultimately wants a stronger, traditional Pashtun government for

Afghanistan, so that India cannot get a stronger foothold there.

ISI protecting Osama, Zawahiri in Pakistan

October 19th, 2010

AFP Share Buzz up!Tags: Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, attacks, Ayman al-
Zawahiri, CNN, Nato official, Saudi-born militant, US KABUL, Oct. 18: Al Qaeda
chief Osama bin Laden is living comfortably in a house in northwest Pakistan
close to his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, CNN on Monday quoted a Nato official as
saying.

The Saudi-born militant wanted for the September 11 attacks on the United States
nine years ago was being protected by the local people and “some members of
the Pakistani intelligence services,” CNN said. It also said that the Al Qaeda
number two, the Egyptian-born Zawahiri, was living close to him.

“Nobody in Al Qaeda is living in a cave,” the unnamed senior Nato official is

quoted as saying in a report datelined Kabul. “The official also confirmed the US
assessment that Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, has moved between the
cities of Quetta and Karachi in Pakistan over the last several months,” said the
report on CNN’s website.

Pakistan’s mountainous North Waziristan region, which borders Afghanistan, is

believed to be a vortex of Afghan, Pakistani and Arab militants, and long held to
be a possible hiding place for bin Laden.

Meanwhile, Pakistan on Monday rejected the US media reports that bin Laden and
his deputy Zawahiri, were hiding in its north-western region near the Afghan
border.

“Stories like this keep on surfacing. Our reaction from day one to such stories is
clear — he is not here,” the deputy information minister, Mr Samsam Bokhari,
told DPA.

“They always say Osama is here but do not tell us exactly where he is located.
We do not believe in these kinds of stories,” he said responding to a story run by
the CNN on Monday.

Pakistani authorities have denied they are providing protection for the terror
mastermind, who has a $25 million bounty on his head. “It is a baseless
assertion, we reject it,” a Pakistani foreign ministry official said.

He said that Pakistani security forces are present in North Waziristan and other
tribal areas and if they had known that senior Al Qaeda members were nearby,
“we would have taken action immediately.”
The Nato spokesman said the alliance had no immediate comment. Bin Laden is
believed to have escaped to the area from Afghanistan’s Tora Bora region during
the US-led invasion of late 2001 that unseated the Islamist regime that had given
him safe haven.