Asia Pacific Energy Outlook Tour

2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 March 2018

The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand,
supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from
external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout
2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy
demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions,
imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the
development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and
under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at
www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil ‹#›
Corporation. All rights reserved.
Global trends continue to evolve
2016
Growth from 2016 level
Percent

2x
GDP

+25%
demand

+1.7 billion
people

+10%
CO2 emissions

-45%
CO2 intensity

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

2018 Outlook for Energy

Fundamentals
What will the world’s energy picture look like in the future?

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Energy supports living standards
2016 Electricity demand per capita
kWh per person

Population

Half of World population

2016 GDP per capita

Thousands of PPP dollars
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Non-OECD leads economic expansion
GDP GDP growth
Trillion 2010$ Trillion 2010$

4.1%
AAGR
Non-OECD

Africa
1.9% Other
AAGR AP

OECD India

Europe

China
United
States

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)

2040 Percentage Urban

0-50%
50-75%
75-100%

2010 City – 10 million +

2040 City – 10 million +

Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Purchasing power expands
GDP per capita Global middle class
Thousand PPP$ Billion people
United States

Africa/Middle East

Europe OECD

China
Asia Pacific

World

India
Other AP Non-OECD Latin America

Europe
Africa
North America

Source: The Brookings Institution

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

2018 Outlook for Energy

Demand
Global energy demand will continue to rise through 2040,
reflecting its fundamental link to expanding prosperity and
better living standards for a growing population worldwide.

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Developing Economies Dominate Growth
Demand by Region
Quadrillion BTUs

750

Rest of World

500
Other AP
Non-OECD
India

China
250

OECD

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy demand varies by sector
End-use energy demand Primary energy demand
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
Elec/Mkt Heat
300 Wind/Solar 300
Hydro/Geo ‘40
Biomass
‘40
250 Nuclear 250
Coal ‘25
‘25
Gas
‘16 ‘16
Liquids
200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
1 2Industrial
3 4 5 Transportation
6 7 8 9 10 Res/Comm
11 12 13 Electricity
20162025 Generation
2040

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Rising prosperity lifts chemicals energy demand
Chemicals demand by region
Quadrillion BTUs

Fuel

Feedstock

North
America

Russia/
Caspian
Latin America
Other
Asia Africa
Europe

Asia India Middle East

Pacific
OECD

Mature Regions China Rest of Asia Pacific Rest of World

Emerging Markets
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Transportation Demand
Sector Demand Demand by Region
MBDOE MBDOE

75 ‘16 ‘25
Rail
30 ‘40

Marine

Aviation
50 Commercial 20

Heavy Duty
U.S.
25 10

Light Duty

0 0
2000 2020 2040 OECD China India Other AP Rest of
Non-OECD World

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global fleet increases and diversifies
Fleet by type Efficiency curbs demand growth
Million cars MBDOE

Electric/Plug-in/
Fuel cell

Full hybrid

Natural gas/LPG
Diesel

Gasoline

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Policy and consumer choices impact demand
Electric vehicles grow rapidly Liquids demand remains resilient
Million cars MBDOE

Total liquids
demand

Plug-in
hybrids

Battery
electrics Light-duty liquids
demand

Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
Electricity Demand by Region Electricity Net Delivered by Type
Thousand TWh Thousand TWh

10 40
2016
China

8 Other
30 Renewables

Wind & Solar

6 Other
Asia Pacific Nuclear
20
United States
4 Europe
Gas
India
10
2
Coal

Oil
0 0
1980 2010 2040 2000 2020 2040

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
 Renewables and gas capture growth
Change in net delivered electricity 2016-2040 Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity

Thousand TWh Share of TWh

Solar capacity Wind capacity

'40

Solar

'16

Wind

North Europe Asia Middle Africa World

America Pacific East

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Electricity generation by region highlights diversity
Net delivered electricity
Thousand TWh

'40
'25
'16
Other renewables

Wind/Solar
Nuclear

Gas

Coal
Oil

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Policy and technology choices impact outcome
Gas demand from electricity generation
BCFD

Lower nuclear/
coal use

Africa Higher wind/solar

penetration

Middle East

Other Asia Pacific

India

China
Latin America

North America

Russia/Caspian

Europe

Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Global Demand
2040 by fuel Average Growth / Yr.
Quadrillion BTUs 2016 - 2040

0.9%
0.7%

1.3%
2016 1.6%
-0.1%
Hydro / Geothermal

Solar / Wind /
Biofuels

Biomass

Nuclear

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

2018 Outlook for Energy

Supply
What resources will be available to meet the world’s
increasing demand for more energy?

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Liquids Supply
World Supply by Type By Region
MBDOE MBDOE
Biofuels
Other Liquids
120 120

NGLs
Other Non-OPEC

Tight Oil
Russia
80 80
Oil Sands
Deepwater
North America
New Conventional
Crude and Condensate
Development

40 40

Developed Conventional
Crude & Condensate OPEC

0 0
2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Gas supply highlights regional diversity
Gas demand by supply type
Share of growth 2016-2040
BCFD Supply type Production

LNG imports
Pipeline imports
Local unconventional production
Local conventional production
. Total production

Net
exports Net
imports

'00 '16 '25 '40

North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia
America America Caspian East Pacific

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Asia Pacific Natural Gas Demand and Supply
Demand by Country Demand by Sector Supply by Type
BCFD BCFD BCFD

150 150 150

Transportation
Rest of AP

Korea Res/Comm LNG

Japan
100 100 100
India

SE Asia Industrial Pipeline

Local
50 50 50 Unconventional

China Electricity
Local
Generation
Conventional

0 0 0
2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
 LNG trade grows and diversifies
Europe and Asia Pacific dominate LNG imports
BCFD

Asia Pacific Air quality management

Growth Climate/Energy policy
Rest of World

Other Asia Pacific

India Climate/Energy policy

Climate/Energy policy
Gas import diversity
Fuel supply diversity
China

Air quality management

Japan/Korea/
Chemical feed
Taiwan/Singapore
Backfill declining
gas production
Europe

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

 LNG trade grows and diversifies
Europe and Asia Pacific dominate LNG imports Abundant gas supplies underpin new LNG exports
BCFD BCFD

Asia Pacific
Growth
Rest of World Rest of World

Other Asia Pacific

Africa
India

North America
China

Middle East
Japan/Korea/
Taiwan/Singapore

Asia Pacific

Europe

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Two Paths to CO2 Reduction
United States Generation Share Germany Generation Share CO2 Intensity of Generation
Percent Percent g CO2/kWh generation

100% Oil 100% 600

2005
Other Renewables

Wind & Solar

75% Nuclear 75% 2016

400

50% 50%
Gas

200
25% 25%

Coal

0% 0% 0
2005 2016 2005 2016 United Germany
States
Sources: EIA, UBA
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
2018 Outlook for Energy

Emissions
The dual challenge of providing reliable, affordable energy to
support prosperity and enhance living standards is coupled
with the need to do so in ways that reduce impacts on the
environment, including the risks of climate change. This is a
challenge we take seriously.

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Energy mix shifts to lower-carbon fuels
Global energy mix Energy-related CO2 emissions peak
Percent Billion tonnes

Other renewables
Middle East
Wind/Solar
Nuclear Africa
Latin America
Russia/Caspian
Gas

Other Asia Pacific

Oil
China

Europe

Coal
North America

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Restraining energy-related CO2 emissions
Energy-related CO2 emissions
Billion tonnes

2000 GDP CO2 Energy 2016 GDP CO2 Energy 2040

growth intensity efficiency growth intensity efficiency

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix
Primary energy demand
Quadrillion BTUs

Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Unconventional Gas

Gas

Deepwater, Oil Sands,

Tight Oil

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
2018 Outlook for Energy

Energy matters
As the world’s population approaches 9 billion people in 2040,
we are challenged to help improve living standards everywhere.
We expect that progress will be powered by human ingenuity
and the energy that helps make better lives possible.

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

 Electricity from solar and wind
increases about 400 percent

Energy powers modern economies

and living standards

Natural gas expands role to meet a

wide variety of needs
Global energy needs rise about 25%,
led by non-OECD nations

Oil plays a leading role to aid mobility

and modern products

Electricity demand nearly doubles in

non-OECD nations
Decarbonization of the world’s
energy system will accelerate

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

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