3 DAYS

OF THE NEXT
RECESSION

www.recessiondays.com
 “in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king”
Erasmus

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

INTRODUCTION
We would like to personally
thank you for your interest in
3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION
You’ve officially made the first step toward preparing you,
your job, your business, your investments for the next
global wealth distribution event. There is a lot of value
packed into this book and we’re excited to share it with
you, but before you dive in, we invite you to first take a
minute or two to learn more about what this book is all
about:
Why We Wrote This Book How is This Book Organized

Last time it was ugly. The Great Recession came and affected Before we started writing this book we’ve asked ourselves the
billions of people. Millions of people lost their jobs, thousands of question: “What people do need to know about the upcoming
companies went out of business, many people experienced a total recession in order to prepare for its dangers and to take advantage of
wipe out of their savings and investments. the opportunities it will create?”

Now when the next recession is approaching … this could happen The answer was inside the question itself. There are three parts:
again!
• the coming recession;
• dangers;
All this might be avoided if people are prepared for it. That is why
• opportunities.
we wrote this book to raise the awareness, to increase people’s
knowledge in the area and to prepare them for inevitable coming So we’ve decided to divide the book into three main parts which
recession. we call days:

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

Day I
Contains the forecast material which will explain when will the next recession occur.
We’ve combined the principles of causality and synchronicity and were able to identify
numerous cycles and events which point to a most probable time of the next recession

Day II
Focused on what might happen, what danger lies ahead. We’ve covered major economy
areas where the recession might cause a lot of trouble. Also few of the most popular
financial instrument like stocks, gold, fiat & cryptocurrencies and other.

Day III
That is what everybody is looking for – the opportunities and how to benefit from them.
Real opportunities with the explanation of the risks associated with them.

Who is This Book For

If you are like a chess player looking few moves ahead, if you are not a man/woman
of the extremes and you do believe that to some extent a particular future event might
be forecasted, if are a person who is always looking to be ahead of the others, learning
something new, exploiting different opportunities … then this book is right for you.

Now let’s dive in... thanks for reading!

Next pages contain selected parts of the book “3 Days of the Next Recession”

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

What do you see on the picture below?

Nothing...

only white space …

This is the future or at least the future most of the people see when they try to look into it. They can’t see anything.

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

But what can you see there or said in other way what do you want to see there:

Winning lottery numbers?

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

Winning numbers at the casino playing roulette?

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

or the next revolutionary discovery?

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

Now imagine what if you could actually know all of these things? Or maybe some small portion of the future. To know the winning
numbers of the lottery you will become millionaire. Knowing the next big bang crypto currency or who will have the first REAL artificial
intelligence or quantum PC or the next huge discovery will make push you even further towards the billion mark, maybe even more.

The smallest piece could bring you huge benefit. So if you could get even a glimpse of the future you could make a fortune!

But it is not easy, right? Some actually believe it to be impossible. Others, like some fortune tellers on the carnival will tell you that they
can do it all day long.

Well, none of this is actually true. While it is impossible to know everything that the future holds, some small particles of it can be
foreseen. Like for example a cyclical event that happen from time to time.

You don’t know when a volcano will erupt but if it is active you know that one day eruption will happen. And it will right after you see the
big smoke and frequent earthquakes.

You don’t know exactly when it will start snowing but you know that usually this happens in the winter season and there will be winter
this year, and the year after that, and so on. If it is getting cold, the day becomes shorter than the night, all the leaves have fallen than you
know the snow is soon to come.

So there are some events which can be forecasted. Not 100% - like knowing the it will snow in London at 6:03 PM on 12/22/2018 but more
of a forecasted to some extent. Those events might bring you fortune! So you just need to find them.

Where to start looking?

To make a really educated forecast of a future event we need it to meet two conditions:

• a cyclical event that happens from time to time;

• to be an aggregate event, consisted of many other smaller events. Some of them precede the big event (causality), some of them
happen at the same time (synchronicity).

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

The first one is needed so we can be sure that the event we are looking for will happen. Imagine if you wait for something that is not
coming!

The second one is connected with the actual ability of some events to be forecasted. Lets consider the following example guessing the
next number in the game of casino roulette. What spinning the ball inside the roulette creates is not an aggregate event. It doesn’t depend
on anything. Well maybe depends on force applied on the ball, the cleanness of the roulette and so on but those can’t help you guess the
number. That is why if the roulette is fair (not manipulated) you can’t guess the number and can’t benefit from it (but the casino will). The
same is with the lottery numbers.

What about the next global economical crisis?

It is happening from time to time, it is a cyclical event. It is also a result of many other events. Some of them cause the crisis, some of
them happen in the same time.

What if you can make and educated prediction when will be the next global crisis? Will it be beneficial for you?

Of course it will be – you will avoid all the dangers and take advantage of the opportunities. Do you remember how many markets crushed
last time in 2007-2009, and how some of them made an extraordinary rebound, reaching almost to the sky in the years after 2009?

That makes the next economic crisis the perfect opportunity in our quest for a wealth distribution event which can be educatedly foreseen.

But wait a minute... why not make our lives easier? Global economic crisis depends on too many factors. It can happen from everywhere,
many things can cause it, actually more than we can handle.

To increase the odds in our favour, or in other words, to make our forecast more reliable, we need to find an event which is not that global,
but still very big on its own and is an event which can lead to a global one.

Economic recession in the USA.

Yes, if it is not the whole world, we go for the biggest economy. There is a plenty of data on it, the US recession itself will bring many
opportunities , have a strong global impact, and potentially even lead to a global crisis.

Lets first define that event we will forecast.

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

What is a ‘Recession’?

A recession is a normal part of the business cycle, an unpleasant one characterised by a significant decline in economic activity going on
for more than a few months. It is determinable in industrial production, employment, real income, financial markets and wholesale-retail
trade. The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country’s gross
domestic product (GDP).

Following this a US recession is declared after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

This is the most common definition of a recession. Just for the record here, we’ll say that a recession can be declared based on other
economic indicators and even before those six months have passed.

Now you know what we are looking for. But can we actually know this, in advance? This is a question for which you’ll have an answer after
you read the whole e-book.

Are you ready?

Great, let’s go into the FUTURE ...

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

 DAY I
WHEN WILL THE NEXT
US RECESSION OCCUR?
IT WILL HAPPEN!

A financial recession is an event that happens time-and-time again. During your lifetime you have probably witnessed such periods of
recession already. The 1987, the Dotcom bubble in 2000, and the Great Recession of 2007-2009. If we go even further back in time we
can’t go without mentioning the Great Depression in 1929.

Take a look at the chart below:

US recessions since 1854. Source Federal Reserve of St. Louis

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

The chart above shows all US recessions since 1854. As you can see, we have had 34 recessions in USA in the last 164 years. Which
means that roughly we have a crisis every 5 years (4.8 years to be more specific). In other words, on average if five years have past since
the official end of the last recession you can expect a new one to follow. So far since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, 9 years have
past. That means that we have almost doubled the average period. Well do be afraid that in the next few hours a new crisis will hit the
world but this is one thing that suggests that we are getting close to it!

You can see that those recessions happen quite often and they will continue to happen in the future. But why? Why there has to be a
recession for sure? Well we can describe it in many ways but at the end it will all come to greed, fear and debt, a lot of debt.

US Corporate debt to GDP.

Source Federal Reserve of St. Louis

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

So the chart show that we have really high levels of debt. What else do need? We’ve mentioned earlier that the high levels of debt do not
mean immediate recession. We need to have high interest rates.

Currently (May 2018) the FFR stands at 1.75%. But as we already saw, we need it to be at least above 3%. 5% would be better. When will
we see interest rates rise to these levels?

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

Interest rate expectations. Source Federal Reserve of St. Louis

THE 10 YEAR PHENOMENA

“Now there was a smart man...” – Warren Buffett

When divining for the next recession, we simply can’t avoid looking at the stock market market itself. There are many big market players
(like hedge funds and banks) who spend a great deal of their resources to forecast when such a big economic event might happen and
then act accordingly. That is why usually the stock market, represented by Dow Jones or S&P 500 index, acts as a predictor of a coming
recession. On average, these indices peak and then start falling six months before the recession is officially announced. Sounds good
you’ll say, but how a normal person without the resources of a hedge fund could possibly know when there is a market top in place?

It’s really a good question. To answer it we will go back to 1939 when a researcher, Edgar Lawrence Smith, published Tides in the Affairs of
Men. In this book, Smith formulated the so called Decennial Pattern. Smith researched equity prices from 1880 and came to the conclusion
that a 10-year pattern, or cycle, of stock price movements had more or less reproduced itself over the researched 58-year period.

What Smith did was to divide the stock market chart into 10-year segments and place them above each other for comparison. In other
words, he looked at market behavior in all years ending in 0 (1880, 1890,...), ending in 1 like 1881, 1891,..., then all years ending in 2, and
so on till all years ending in 9. What he found was that markets tend to perform in a similar way in years with the same final digit. For
example, the strongest years are those ending in 5 and 8,...

What is even more important is that this phenomena is still in play today, almost 80 years after Smith published and announced his
findings. That means we have 80 years out-of-sample data.

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

THE PERFECT SCORE
There is an indicator which predicted seven of the last seven recessions. Yes, you’ve got that right - a 100% success story. This is the
yield curve.

The yield curve is a line plot, at a set point in time, of the Treasury Bonds yields with different maturity dates. Usually it plots the yields of
US Treasury Bonds with the following maturity: 3 months, 6 months, 2 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, 20 years and 30 years. You can see
it in other variations as well; for example 2 years and 10 years, 3 months and 10 years, and so on. The yield curve shows that the yields
increase with longer dated bonds (yield of the 10 yr must be higher than the one of 2 yr for example). If this is true, we have a NORMAL
yield curve which is associated with economic expansion.

In times under special conditions we can have a FLAT yield curve or INVERTED yield curve. Yields are no longer rising with the longer
maturity but they can be even lower. Flat and inverted yield curve is associated with warnings of an upcoming recession

We will not go into detail of why the curve actually inverts. It is because the interest rates rise and push upward the left part of curve. On
the other hand we have a specific group of investors – the smartest ones who are actually buying the 30 year Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds).
The 30 year T-Bonds are widely considered а safe haven because of their longer maturity and that they will outlive the coming recessions
and are, of course guaranteed by US government. If you want more information on why the curve inverts just google it and you’ll find a
lot information on this topic.

What is important for you as a person who is trying to predict the next recession is to monitor the yield curve. If it becomes flat or even
inverted be aware that recession might be coming...

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

 DAY III
THE OPPORTUNITY
VALUE INVESTING

That is the time when you see value in the stock market.

Pick the stock market of the strongest economy (currently it is the economy of U.S.A) or in case of global recession, the stock market of
economy which is not expected to fall into recession.

After that look for big, well-established companies, with years of history ... with lowest levels of debt (no debt is better, but hard to find)...
companies from Dow Jones Industrial Average or S&P 500

use the screeners to find the value … the best combination of low Price to Book, low Price to Sales, good forward P/E and dividend yield

ARE YOU READY FOR THE FULL BOOK?

GET IT NOW AT RECESSIONDAYS.COM

3 DAYS OF THE NEXT RECESSION

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