2011年　第6期 No.
6　2011
汉译英参考译文：
The Skyscraper Index: A Foreshadowing of Economic Crisis
For politicians and the public at large, skyscrapers
–– gigantic buildings backed by huge economic power
– are a symbol of social progress and economic
prosperity. Contrary to this popular belief, some
economists argue that the emergence of skyscrapers
and those reaching new heights in particular, would
more often than not precede economic downturns.
“The market goes down as tall buildings go
up.”That was the assertion made in 1999 by Andrew
Lawrence, a securities analyst at Deutsche Bank. At
the Lehman Brothers’global economic conference
held in Beijing on February 15, 2006, John Llewellyn,
Lehman’s global chief economist, alerted his Chinese
clients to the“skyscraper index,”predicting that“if a
global crisis strikes, it will probably be in 2007 or 2008.” himself to death. During the most glorious years of the
Despite his accurate prediction for the 2007—08
economic crisis, Llewellyn never envisioned that the
century-old financial empire would go up in smoke
amid the crisis. Are skyscrapers a crowning glory or
a clinging curse for the world economy? And is there
indeed a close connection between skyscrapers and
economic crises?
In 1999, Andrew Lawrence, based on his research,
formulated what he called the“skyscraper index,” which creates a succession of interest transmission
showing a correlation between the construction of
skyscrapers and subsequent economic downturns.
In fact, the completion of each new record-setting
skyscraper is often followed by an economic recession.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, the world has
seen four major skyscraper booms, each accompanied
by an economic crisis or a round of financial turbulence.
In the 1920s, concurrent with overall economic
recovery and the strongest rebound ever seen in the stock
market, the United States went on a wild residential
and commercial building spree. During this period,
three record-breaking skyscrapers began to be built in
succession. Within the three years from 1929 to 1931, 40
Wall Street, the Chrysler Building and the Empire State
Building were completed in New York. What followed,
however, was not a new wave of prosperity, but the
Great Depression unprecedented in history. Similarly,
after a period of strong and sustained economic boom in
the 1960s, known to Americans as the“Golden Age,” vast majority of the public. However, such a“golden
construction began on the World Trade Center in New
York and the Sears Tower in Chicago. The two new
record-setting skyscrapers were completed in 1972 and
1974 respectively. Soon afterwards, the global economy
sank heavily into stagflation.
The correlation between supertall buildings and
economic crises is too close to be coincidental. What is
it then that keeps them so closely tied to each other?
Firstly, human nature is at play. One of the
negative aspects of human nature is blind confidence,
which is reflected in the fact that humans look at
things in a way that is stubbornly subjective due to
their inadequate understanding of the actual world.
Indeed, Lawrence himself described his index
correlating skyscrapers with economic downturns as an
“unhealthy 100-year correlation.”Things of that kind
have existed in human society for well over 100 years.
Looking back, one may readily find similar events that
unfolded during the long span of Chinese history. In
the heyday of the Shang Dynasty, King Zhou ordered
the construction of Lutai (Stag Gallery), which aroused
great indignation and condemnation among his people.
And it was at Lutai that King Zhou ended up burning
Qing Dynasty, Emperor Qianlong launched large-scale
landscaping projects, resulting in the decline of national
strength and a humiliating loss of sovereignty.
Secondly, profit is a motive. All business activities
are profit-driven in nature. An economic boom is often
preceded by a cycle of low interest rates, which serves as
a precondition for the boom. In the process of economic
growth, interest returns are always lower than expected,
channels– a chain of vested interest groups (as
mentioned earlier). The economic boom, combined with
relatively lower interest rates, exerts a direct influence
on land prices and capital costs. Driven by the interplay
among land prices, business demand and easy access to
financial support, a plan is conceived for the construction
of yet another record-setting skyscraper.
Just as day follows night in a 24-hour period
and seasonal variations occur in a year, the economy
undergoes a boom-bust cycle, and all commodity
prices respond to the forces of supply and demand.
As the Chinese saying goes, anything that reaches its
climax returns cyclically to its opposite extreme. A
market demand for the construction of skyscrapers
emerges from what is called the“golden climate,”
which is created by a combination of factors: lower
interest rates, business expansion, rising capital prices,
and a general mood of excessive optimism among the
climate”never lasts long.
It is therefore quite common that no sooner is
a skyscraper completed than the economy enters a
recession and then is thrown into deeper distress by
the time the skyscraper is put to use. This best reveals
the inseparable correlation between skyscrapers and
economic downturns. Indeed, the world’s tallest
buildings often stand as monuments to past prosperity.
（集体讨论，陈小全执笔）
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