GLOBAL

POLYOLEFINS
OUTLOOK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2014 – 2026

PETROCHEMICALS
 PLATTS GLOBAL POLYOLEFINS OUTLOOK JUNE 2016
FULL REPORT CONTENTS
Global Olefins Outlook
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
QUARTERLY ETHYLENE PRICE REVIEW 5
NEWS BRIEFS 5
GLOBAL ETHYLENE CRACKER PROJECTS 8
GLOBAL ETHYLENE CRACKER PROJECTS MAP 11
ETHYLENE CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY FEEDSTOCK 12
REGIONAL ETHYLENE CRACKER CAPACITY ADDITIONS:
ORIGINAL VS ESTIMATED DATE OF COMPLETION 13
BENTEK US NGL REVIEW 15
GLOBAL ETHYLENE VARIABLE COST CURVE 17
GLOBAL ETHYLENE CRACKER PROJECTS GANTT CHART 17
GLOBAL ETHYLENE ANALYSIS 20
FEATURE: WHERE WILL ALL THE NEW US OLEFIN GO? 20
NORTH AMERICA 22
SOUTH AMERICA 22
WESTERN EUROPE 22
EASTERN EUROPE 24
MIDDLE EAST 24
AFRICA 24
FEATURE: CHINA LOOKS INCREASINGLY TO THE US
FOR FEEDSTOCK 24
ASIA 26
QUARTERLY PROPYLENE PRICE REVIEW 27
NEWS BRIEFS 27
GLOBAL PDH PROJECTS 29
GLOBAL PROPYLENE VARIABLE COST CURVE 31
CHINESE CTO/MTO/MTP ETHYLENE AND
PROPYLENE PROJECTS 32
CHINESE CTO/MTO/MTP PROJECTS MAP 33
CHINA CTO/MTO/MTP PROJECTS GANTT CHART 34
MODELED DATA 2014-2026 IN EXCEL WORKBOOKS 35
MODELING METHODOLOGY 36
© 2016 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Global Polyethylene Outlook
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 40
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS 40
POLYETHYLENE PER CAPITA DEMAND
FORECAST ANALYSIS 42
QUARTERLY POLYETHYLENE PRICE REVIEW 43
NEWS BRIEFS 44
NORTH AMERICA 48
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA 51
EUROPE 52
FEATURE: TARIFF HIKES TO CONTINUE PUTTING
PRESSURE ON EUROPEAN PLASTICS CONVERTERS 52
MIDDLE EAST 55
FEATURE: IRANIAN PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY
LOOKS TO EUROPE AMID DOLLAR RESTRICTIONS 55
ASIA 60
AFRICA 64
MODELED DATA 2014-2026 IN EXCEL WORKBOOKS 66
MODELING METHODOLOGY 66
2
Global Polypropylene Outlook
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 71
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND SCENARIO IMPLICATIONS 72
POLYPROPYLENE PER CAPITA DEMAND
FORECAST ANALYSIS 72
QUARTERLY POLYPROPYLENE PRICE REVIEW 74
NEWS BRIEFS 74
NORTH AMERICA 77
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA 78
EUROPE 79
MIDDLE EAST 79
ASIA 80
FEATURE: CONTRASTING ASIAS: POLYPROPYLENE
IN NE ASIA VS ASEAN 80
AFRICA 83
MODELED DATA 2014-2026 IN EXCEL WORKBOOKS 84
MODELING METHODOLOGY 84
CONTRIBUTORS AND CONTACTS 87
DISCLAIMERS 88
 PLATTS GLOBAL POLYOLEFINS OUTLOOK JUNE 2016
GLOBAL OLEFINS OUTLOOK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ƒƒ Eastern European ethylene production is expected to be
nearly 22% from ethane in 2026, up from just 16% in 2015.
The key takeaways: ƒƒ Naphtha use in Eastern Europe is expected to fall to 65%
ƒƒ Global ethylene production is expected to grow from in 2026, down from nearly 74% in 2015.
136.7 million mt in 2015 to 173.5 million mt by 2026.
ƒƒ Globally, the amount of ethane used to feed crackers will Despite the current low crude oil price environment, the
grow from 64.9 million mt in 2015 to 88.6 million mt in majority of cracker investments announced over the last
2026. three to five years appear to be progressing. The
ƒƒ Globally, the amount of naphtha used to feed crackers anticipated wave of cancellations has not come to fruition.
will grow from 181 million mt in 2015 to 213 million mt in Many of these projects, particularly in the US, were given
2026. the go-ahead on project economics stemming from cheap
ƒƒ Globally, the amount of coal used to produce olefins is shale-based ethylene and $100/bbl crude oil climate. Cheap
expected to grow from 8.3 million mt in 2015 to 23.7 shale-based ethane remains, which the industry sees as a
million mt in 2026. saving grace.
ƒƒ Globally, the amount of methanol used to produce olefins
is expected to grow from 2.4 million mt in 2015 to 5.8 However, low oil prices are not helping, as they siphon
million mt in 2026. investment appetite with oil revenues slipping.
ƒƒ North American ethylene production is expected to be
77% ethane-based by 2026, up from 69% in 2015. The counter argument to this is that low oil prices provide
ƒƒ In Western Europe, naphtha currently accounts for 68% the petrochemical industry with lower feedstock costs for
of all ethylene produced. That is expected to fall to close existing operations.
to 63% by 2026.
ƒƒ Ethane use in Western Europe is expected to grow from Examples are currently seen in Europe, more so last year
3.6% in 2015 to 7.3% by 2026. when cracker operating rates peaked as producers took
advantage of lower naphtha prices.
OIL PRICE OUTLOOK ($/b) However, for new projects and investment interest to spark
120 again, high oil prices benefit revenue generation and higher
105 margin prospects. Many in the industry still bank on oil
WTI Dated Brent
90 prices recovering to more than $80/bbl. At Platts we do not
see that happening at all, with the levels for Dated Brent
75
rising to $79/bbl in 2020 and breaching $70/bbl in 2019.
60 Gone are the days of $100/bbl crude, and prices ranging
45 between $70 and $80/bbl will have to be good enough to
30
generate investment enthusiasm. However, uncertainty
2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 remains in the current volatile environment, and many are
Source: Platts Bentek still holding back before making final decisions on planned
© 2016 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. 3
projects. Some investments that have not yet broken
ground sit mainly on paper and can be delayed.
US projects post-2019 are susceptible to cancellation, and
many CTO and MTO projects have question marks over them.
Some countries will plough ahead with investments,
notably Iran, in order to kick-start its petrochemical
industry post sanctions. Iran is planning multiple projects,
and had a thirst to finish investments before sanctions
were imposed. The feedstock is available through the
South Pars field Iran shares with Qatar, so low oil prices will
not be an obstacle.
Financing may be an issue, but India and China are planning to
invest, which will help many of these projects reach fruition.
The other caveat to future cracker projects is economic
uncertainty in China. If poor economic growth hinders
plastics growth, many projects tabled in other regions
could be cancelled as they see China as the main
destination for cracker output.
Currently we have plastics growth in China at around 6%
per (CAGR) over the next 10 years, but if that outlook dips to
4%, China’s import needs would be considerably less.
In theory, demand growth is the key to whether future
cracker and CTO/MTO projects move ahead. Economic
performance also underpins future consumption growth.
Economic growth stems from multiple factors, including
market confidence/sentiment.
Oil prices are a key driver to the latter. In the end, we
come back to the future of crude prices, which will
overall determine the fortunes of the upstream
petrochemical industry.
 PLATTS GLOBAL POLYOLEFINS OUTLOOK JUNE 2016
GLOBAL POLYETHYLENE OUTLOOK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY estimated that around 8 million mt of additional supply
will be needed between 2023 and 2025. In our current
ƒƒ A period of excessive oversupply expected between 2016 outlook, the level remains the same. However, we have
to 2020 extended our analysis to 2026, which has resulted in an
additional 4 million mt 2026 for the market to maintain a
ƒƒ Post-2024 supply expected to tighten, additional capacity reasonable level of balance.
will be needed
As a result of the period 2023 to 2026, an additional 12
ƒƒ China’s uncertainty continues to overshadow PE demand million mt of PE will be required for supply to meet
demand.
ƒƒ Shale-based ethane and coal will be the dominant
feedstock in new projects This forecasted shortfall would require around 6 to 10
world scale ethylene crackers to be built between 2023
ƒƒ India and China are drivers for PE demand growth and 2026 to plug the gap. This additional supply is most
likely to come from low-cost regions such as North
Worldwide polyethylene production is forecasted to grow America and the Middle East, and strong demand centers
from 85 million mt in 2015 to 119 million mt by 2026, similar like India and China.
to our previous outlook. Known project cancellations have
been quiet, despite low crude oil prices. We still see these capacity builds producing a surplus
in the polymer market in the medium term, reaching
In our last report, Platts Petrochemical Analytics its highest point in 2018, a year later than our
previous outlook.
PE GLOBAL SURPLUS/DEFICIT, SPECULATED SUPPLY
NEEDED AND SURPLUS/DEFICIT INCLUDING The surplus for this year is expected to be 7.3
SPECULATED CAPACITY (million mt) million mt. The driving force behind these excesses
10 is extra tonnage coming on-stream in China via the
coal-to-olefins-to-plastics investments and the
5 startup of some new shale-based ethane crackers
in the US.
0
Thereafter, markets may see another peak in surplus in
-5
Speculated supply needed 2020 when the global surplus/deficit may reach 7.8
Global surplus/deficit
Global surplus/deficit including speculated capacity million mt. This mainly stems from Iranian and Russian
-10
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 projects coming online and slightly decelerated
Source: Platts demand growth.
© 2016 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. 4
In real terms, this surplus is unlikely to materialize, as the
likely outcome will be a rationalization of new projects,
especially if crude prices remain low.
However, many in the industry are waiting to see what will
happen with crude prices. Certain countries will continue to
build regardless of the crude price, such as Iran.
Most recently, Iran slashed ethane prices to boost
petrochemical operations, so the pace of investment is
unlikely to dissipate there.
Going forward, crude prices will not reach the so-called
“natural norm” of $70 to $80/bbl until 2019 or 2020.
Therefore, likelihood of projects announcements outside of
advantaged countries like Iran are limited.
More recently, Saudi Arabia has sought to increase
petrochemical feedstock prices to recoup petrodollars lost
to low oil prices, so further expansions from the Kingdom
are unlikely in the near future.
Over the outlook period from 2015 onwards, PE demand is
expected to grow on average at 4.1% annually, 0.1% higher
than our previous forecast.
Overall supply growth remains the same as our previous
analysis, averaging around 3% per annum to 2026.
In summary, our analysis still portrays that LLDPE will be
the strongest growth market in terms of demand as it
further eats in LDPE, followed by HDPE and LDPE.
Supply shows a similar story, with swing HDPE/LLDPE plants
dominating new capacity builds over the next 10 years.
 PLATTS GLOBAL POLYPROPYLENE OUTLOOK JUNE 2016

GLOBAL POLYPROPYLENE OUTLOOK

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2017 is expected to climb by 6.4 million mt when ALTERNATIVE PP DEMAND SCENARIOS (’000 mt)
compared to 2014, which should push the surpluses to 100
Bearish Base Bullish
ƒƒ Globally, surpluses to peak in 2017 and excess supply will 2.6% of global demand.
80
remain through 2022
ƒƒ Additional tonnage will be required from 2023 onwards Of course, the market will find a way to clear the market 60
ƒƒ India to outweigh China in terms of demand growth and align supply with demand, and the periods of
ƒƒ Bulk of additional capacity to come online in Asia and the misalignment are shown to illustrate pull and push points 40
Middle East for the PP market going forward. Supply is expected to rise
20
ƒƒ On purpose production via coal and propane basis of through 2022, with an average of 2.5 million mt added year-
major expansions on-year, via announced capacity additions. 0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Source: Platts
The global polypropylene market is expected to remain Our analyst shows an average of 2.78 million mt in
tight to long through 2022 with the addition of new additional propylene supply will be needed each year from ALTERNATIVE PP SUPPLY SCENARIOS (’000 mt)
on-purpose propylene units and associated 2023 to 2026 to keep up with annual 3.38% global demand 90
polypropylene units. growth throughout the next decade. Bearish Base Bullish
75

But with the increase in demand, the global PP market is Among the key regions, the Americas will need to add about 60

expected to be in a deficit through the rest of our 2.3 million mt of new capacity that span the next decade. 45
forecast period. Unlike robust investments in the polyethylene market, new
30
polypropylene projects are expected to be limited.
Our analysis shows global polypropylene surpluses at 3% 15

of total global demand, which could lead to price volatility Only two PDH units coming online via cheap shale-based 0
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
amid unplanned production outages. Global supply in propane are known to have PP units attached. Most
propylene being produced from those units is expected to Source: Platts

fill a supply gap left by the lack of propylene coming from Asia remains net short throughout the forecast period, with
PP GLOBAL SURPLUS/DEFICIT, SPECULATED SUPPLY
NEEDED AND SURPLUS/DEFICIT INCLUDING the cracker, which processes lighter feedstock. deficits that could reach 11 million mt by 2026 if no new
SPECULATED CAPACITY (million mt) capacity is announced. This will be driven by high demand
5.0
European supply is expected to be balanced to surplus growth in India and steady growth in China.
throughout the forecast period with more capacity coming
2.5
online in Eastern Europe, namely in Russia. Western Europe As a final observation, Asia holds the key to the
0.0 currently has a surplus, but it is expected to slowly decline polypropylene market. China’s growth remains uncertain
-2.5 as operations shrink in the medium to long term. and the market has become long in certain cases due to
-5.0
recent coal and PDH capacity coming online.
Speculated supply needed The Middle East surpluses will peak at 5.35 million mt in
-7.5 Global surplus/deficit
Global surplus/deficit including speculated capacity 2022, with levels at about 4 million mt throughout the If China’s PP appetite recovers and India’s high growth
-10.0 forecast period. Expansions are expected mainly in Iran continues as forecasted, a lot of planned projects will find
2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
Source: Platts post sanctions. an outlet in the coming years.

© 2016 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. 5
 PLATTS GLOBAL POLYPROPYLENE OUTLOOK JUNE 2016

CONTRIBUTORS AND CONTACTS

Team of analysts:

Hetain Mistry Michael McCafferty Eshwar Yennigalla

Managing Analyst, London
hetain.mistry@spglobal.com,
+44 (0) 20 7176 6292
Hetain manages Platts’ petrochemical analytics
team. As well as covering global markets, he is
responsible for the European, Middle East and African market
analysis. Hetain has 13 years’ experience within the oil and
petrochemical consulting industry, working on various multi-client and
single client market studies. Hetain holds a bachelor’s degree in
Economic and Social History from the University of Leicester.
Managing Analyst, London
michael.mccafferty@spglobal.com,
+44 (0) 20 7176 7853
Michael McCafferty is a petrochemical analyst.
He has prior experience as a natural gas liquids
editor for the North American market. Knowledge of these
upstream markets is essential to understanding ongoing and
expected trends in the downstream petrochemical markets.
Michael attended Penn State University and then Rutgers University
where he earned a Master’s degree in Economics.
Analyst, Singapore
eshwar.yennigalla@spglobal.com,
+65 653 06544
Eshwar is part of the Platts’
petrochemical analytics team, based in
Singapore. His main focus is on refinery and
petrochemical simulations and supply and demand
forecasting. He has a Master’s Degree in Petroleum
Engineering from University of Houston and has a
Bachelor’s degree in Chemical Engineering.

Editorial management:

Simon Thorne Jim Foster

Global Editorial Director, London
simon.thorne@spglobal.com, +44 (0) 20 7176 8115
Simon is in charge of Platts’ global petrochemical pricing, news and analytical
content. He is an expert in global crude oil and refined oil products including naphtha
and LPG, as well as derivatives and the development of price benchmarks. Prior to
joining Platts, Simon worked for a film company evaluating new project concepts and using statistical
breakdowns of demographics to suggest enhancements that improve project profitability. Simon holds
a first-class degree in English literature from Kings College London and speaks fluent French.
Director of Analysis, Petrochemicals and Agriculture, Houston
jim.foster@spglobal.com, +1 713 658 3272
Jim is responsible for spearheading development of Platts petrochemical data
modeling and analysis capabilities, with emphasis on North, Central and South
American markets. Jim has 13 years of experience as an editor and analyst at
Platts, with a focus of expertise on US and Latin aromatics price assessments and fundamental
market analysis. He has also covered Midwest power markets. Jim earned his undergraduate
degree from Auburn University in 1994, and earned his MBA in 2009.

Editorial contributors: Product development:

Daved Chohan Fabian Weber Heng Hui Matthew Coombs Martina Klancisar David Bateman
Nandita Lal Pavel Pavlov Shashank Shekhar Commericial Director, Design and Production, Global Product Marketing,
Emmanuel Gallegos Amar Carmody Yi Jeng Petrochemicals London London
Clement Choo Fumiko Dobashi

© 2016 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. 6
 PLATTS GLOBAL POLYPROPYLENE OUTLOOK JUNE 2016

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