Republic of the Philippines

Pangasinan State University

School of Advanced Studies
Urdaneta City, Pangasinan

Course Number / Title: ME 213 – Production Operations and Technology Management

Professor: Dr. Anjo Lee Rosal
Solution to Chapter 3: Project Management Assignment
Prepared by: Engr. Armando B. Soriano

3.28 The following represent activities in Marc Massoud's Construction Company project.
a) Draw the network to represent this situation.
b) Which activities are on the critical path?
c) What is the length of the critical path?

Immediate Time (weeks)

Activity Predecessor (s)

A - 1
B - 4
C A 1
D B 5
E B 2
F C,E 7
G D 2
H F,G 3

a) Network Diagram (AON)

A C F H

S E

B D G
b) Critical Path

0 A 1 1 C 2 6 F 13 13 H 16
4 1 5 5 1 6 6 7 13 13 3 16

0 S 0 4 E 6
0 0 0 4 2 6

0 B 4 4 D 9 9 G 11
0 4 4 6 5 11 11 2 13

CRITICAL PATH = B+E+F+H

C) LENGTH OF CRITICAL PATH = B+E+F+H = 4 + 2 + 7 +3 = 16 weeks

3.29 A small software development project at Krishna Dhir's firm has five major activities. The times are
estimated and provided in the table below. Find the expected time for completing Dhir's project.

Immediate Time
Activity Predecessor (s) a m b

A - 2 5 8
B - 3 6 9
C A 4 7 10
D B 2 5 14
E C 3 3 3

a) Find the expected completion time for this project.

b) What variance value would be used to find probabilities of finishing by a certain time?

a) Expected completion time for this project

2
t = a + 4m + b v = ((b-a) /6)
6

2
A = (2+4(5)+8)/6 = 5 v = ((8-2)/6) = 1
2
B = (3+4(6)+9)/6 = 6 v = ((9-3)/6) = 1
2
C = (4+4(7)+10)/6 = 7 v = ((10-4)/6) = 1
2
D = (2+4(5)+14)/6 = 6 v = ((14-2)/6) = 4
2
E = (3+4(3)+3)/6 = 3 v = ((3-3)/6) = 0

0 A 5 5 C 12 12 E 15
0 5 5 5 7 12 12 3 15

0 S 0
0 0 0

0 B 6 6 D 12
0 6 6 6 6 12

Expected time = A + C + E = 5+7+3 = 15

B) Project Variance
σ p1 = A + C + E = 1 + 1 + 0 = 2

σ p2 = B + D = 1 + 4 = 5

USE σ p1 = 2
3.30 Given the activities described by the following table:

Expected Standard
Activity Time Deviation Immediate
of Time Predecessor
Estimate
A 7 2 -
B 3 1 A
C 9 3 A
D 4 1 B, C
E 5 1 B, C
F 8 2 E
G 8 1 D, F
H 6 2 G

a) Draw the appropriate PERT diagram

b) Find the critical path and project completion time
c) Find the probability that the project will take more than 49 time periods to complete

a) Solution
Activity on Node (AON)

B D G H
3 4 8 6

S A
0 7

C E F
9 5 8

Activity on Arrow (AOA)

D=4 G=8 H=6

3 5 8 9
B=3
D=4
A=7 G=8
1 2 E=5

C=9
E=5 F=8
4 6 7
b) Solution

7 B 10 16 D 20 29 G 37 37 H 43
13 3 16 25 4 29 29 8 37 37 6 43

0 S 0 0 A 7
0 0 0 0 7 7

7 C 16 16 E 21 21 F 29
7 9 16 16 5 21 21 8 29

CRITICAL PATH = A + C + E + F + G + H
Project Completion Time = 7 + 9 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 6 = 43
c) Solution
Project Standard Deviation

σp = Square root of Project Variance

σp = √v
Expected Standard
Activity Time Deviation Immediate Variance
of Time Predecessor
Estimate
A 7 2 - 4
B 3 1 A 1
C 9 3 A 9
D 4 1 B, C 1
E 5 1 B, C 1
F 8 2 E 4
G 8 1 D, F 1
H 6 2 G 4

Calculate the variance of critical path

= A + C + E + F + G + H
= 4 + 9 + 1 + 4 + 1 + 4
= 23

σp = √v = √ ## = 4.80

Calculate the probability of project completion, more than 49 time period to complete
Z = (Due date - Expected date of completion)/ σp = (49 - 43) / 4.8 = 1.25

From the Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution Table (Engineering Statistics page 709)
P(Z) = 0.89435 OR P(Z) = NORMSDIST(1.25) = 0.894350
P(49) = 1-0.89435 = 0.10565 = 10.57%
3.31 What is the minimum cost of crashing the following project by 4 days?

Crash Max
Normal Time Normal Crash Immediate Slope Crash
Activity Time (days) (days) Cost Cost Predecessor Time
A 6 5 900 1000 - 100 1
B 8 6 300 400 - 100 2
C 4 3 500 600 - 100 1
D 5 3 900 1200 A, B 300 2
E 8 5 1000 1600 C 600 3
a) Solution

0 A 6 8 D 13
2 6 8 8 5 13

0 S 0 0 B 8
0 0 8 8

0 C 4 4 E 12
0 4 4 4 8 12

Initially Run 1 Run 2

ActivityNormal Crash Cost / Days Days
Duration Duration day TF Saved Dur TF Saved Dur TF
A 6 5 100 2 6 1 6 0
B 8 6 100 0 1 7 0 1 6 0
C 4 3 100 0 4 0 1 3 0
D 5 3 300 0 5 0 5 0
E 8 5 600 0 8 0 8 0
Cost - $100 $200
Savings - -
Project Cost $3,600 $3,700 $3,900
Project Duration 13 12 11

Run 1 Run 2
0 A 6 7 D 12 0 A 6 6 D 11
1 6 7 7 5 12 0 6 6 6 5 11

0 S 0 0 B 7 0 S 0 0 B 6
0 0 7 7 0 0 6 6

0 C 4 4 E 12 0 C 3 3 E 11
0 4 4 4 8 12 0 3 3 3 8 11
 Initially Run 3 Run 4
Activity Normal Crash Cost / Days Days
Duration Duration day TF Saved Dur TF Saved Dur TF
A 6 5 100 2 6 0 6
B 8 6 100 0 6 0 6
C 4 3 100 0 3 0 3
D 5 3 300 0 1 4 0 1 3
E 8 5 600 0 8 0 2 6
Cost - $300 $1,500
Savings - -
Project Cost $3,600 $4,200 $5,700
Project Duration 13 11 9

Run 3 Run 4
0 A 6 6 D 10 0 A 6 6 D 9
0 6 6 6 4 10 0 6 6 6 3 9

0 S 0 0 B 6 0 S 0 0 B 6
0 0 6 6 0 0 6 6

0 C 3 3 E 11 0 C 3 3 E 9
0 3 3 3 8 11 0 3 3 3 6 9

Minimum cost of Crashing the Project by 4 days = $5,700

3.32 Nicholas Glaskowsky, director of personnel of Glaskowsky Resources, Inc., is in the process of
designing a program that his customers can use in the job-finding process. Some of the activities include
preparing résumés, writing letters, making appointments to see prospective employers, researching
companies and industries, and so on. Some of the information on the activities appears in the following
table:

Time (days) Immediate

Activity a m b Predecessor(s)

A 8 10 12 -
B 6 7 9 -
C 3 3 4 -
D 10 20 30 A
E 6 7 8 C
F 9 10 11 B, D, E
G 6 7 10 B, D, E
H 14 15 16 F
I 10 11 13 F
J 6 7 8 G, H
K 4 7 8 I, J
L 1 2 4 G, H

a) Construct a network for this problem.

b) Determine the expected times and variances for each activity.
c) Determine ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack for each activity.
d) Determine the critical path and project completion time.
e) Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 70 days.
f) Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 80 days.
g) Determine the probability that the project will be finished in 90 days.

a) Network Diagram (AON)

L

END
A D G J

Start B H K

C E F I
b) Expected time and variances

Using formula to determine Expected time (t) and variance (v)

2
t = a + 4m + b v = ((b-a) /6)
6
Activity
2
A t = (8+4(10)+12)/6 v = ((12-8)/6)
= 10.0 = 0.44

2
B t = (6+4(7)+9)/6 v = ((9-6)/6)
= 7.2 = 0.25

2
C t = (3+4(3)+4)/6 v = ((4-3)/6)
= 3.2 = 0.03

2
D t = (10+4(20)+30)/6 v = ((30-10)/6)
= 20.0 = 11.11

2
E t = (6+4(7)+8)/6 v = ((8-6)/6)
= 7.0 = 0.11

2
F t = (9+4(10)+11)/6 v = ((11-9)/6)
= 10.0 = 0.11

2
G t = (6+4(7)+10)/6 v = ((10-6)/6)
7.3 = 0.44

2
H t = (14+4(15)+16)/6 v = ((16-14)/6)
15.0 = 0.11

2
I t = (10+4(11)+13)/6 v = ((13-10)/6)
11.2 = 0.25

2
J t = (6+4(7)+8)/6 v = ((8-6)/6)
7.0 = 0.11

2
K t = (4+4(7)+8)/6 v = ((8-4)/6)
6.7 = 0.44

2
L t = (1+4(2)+4)/6 v = ((4-1)/6)
2.2 = 0.25
c) ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack for each activity.

55 L 57
67 2 69
69 E 69
69 0 69
0 A 10 10 D 30 30 G 37 55 J 62
0 10 10 10 20 30 48 7 55 55 7 62

0 Start 0 0 B 7 40 H 55 62 K 69
0 0 0 23 7 30 40 15 55 62 7 69

0 C 3 3 E 10 30 F 40 40 I 51
20 3 23 23 7 30 30 10 40 51 11 62

EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST SLACK ON CRITICAL

ACTIVITY START FINISH START FINISH (LS-ES) PATH
ES EF LS LF
A 0 10 0 10 0 YES
B 0 7.2 23 30 23 NO
C 0 3.2 20 23 20 NO
D 10 30 10 30 0 YES
E 3 10 23 30 20 NO
F 30 40 30 40 0 YES
G 30 37 48 55 18 NO
H 40 55 40 55 0 YES
I 40 51 51 62 11 NO
J 55 62 55 62 0 YES
K 62 69 62 69 0 YES
L 55 57 67 69 12 NO
d) Critical path and project completion time

55 L 57
67 2 69
69 E 69
69 0 69
0 A 10 10 D 30 30 G 37 55 J 62
0 10 10 10 20 30 48 7 55 55 7 62

0 Start 0 0 B 7 40 H 55 62 K 69
0 0 0 23 7 30 40 15 55 62 7 69

0 C 3 3 E 10 30 F 40 40 I 51
20 3 23 23 7 30 30 10 40 51 11 62

CRITICAL PATH = A + D + F + H + J + K
Project completion time = 10 + 20 + 10 + 15 + 7 + 6.7 = 68.7 days
e) Probability that the project will be finished in 70 days

Time (days) Immediate

Activity a m b Predeces Expected Variance
sor(s) Time
A 8 10 12 - 10.0 0.44
B 6 7 9 - 7.2 0.25
C 3 3 4 - 3.2 0.03
D 10 20 30 A 20.0 11.11
E 6 7 8 C 7.0 0.11
F 9 10 11 B, D, E 10.0 0.11
G 6 7 10 B, D, E 7.3 0.44
H 14 15 16 F 15.0 0.11
I 10 11 13 F 11.2 0.25
J 6 7 8 G, H 7.0 0.11
K 4 7 8 I, J 6.7 0.44
L 1 2 4 G, H 2.2 0.25

Calculate the project variance of critical path

Path 1 = A + D + F + H + J + K
= 0.44 + 11.11 + 0.11 + 0.11 + 0.11 + 0.44
= 12.32

Use the value with the greater variance, in this case its Path 1
Calculate the Project Standard deviation

σp = √v = √ 12.3200 = 3.51
 Calculate the probability of the project will be finished in 70 days
Z = (Due date - Expected date of completion)/ σp = (70 - 68.7) / 3.51 = 0.37

From the Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution Table (Engineering Statistics page 709)
P(Z) = 0.64431 or 64.43%
OR
P(Z) = NORMSDIST(Z) = 0.64431
P(70) = 64.43%

f) Probability that the project will be finished in 80 days

Z = (Due date - Expected date of completion)/ σp = (80 - 68.7) / 3.51 = 3.22

From the Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution Table (Engineering Statistics page 709)
P(Z) = 0.99936 or 99.94%
OR
P(Z) = NORMSDIST(Z) = 0.99936
P(70) = 99.94%

g) Probability that the project will be finished in 90 days

Z = (Due date - Expected date of completion)/ σp = (90 - 68.7) / 3.51 = 6.07

From the Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution Table (Engineering Statistics page 709) out of range
P(Z) = 1 or 100.00%
OR
P(Z) = NORMSDIST(Z) = 1.00000
P(70) = 100.00%
3.33 Getting a degree from a college or university is a long and difficult task. Certain courses must be
completed before other courses may be taken. Develop a network diagram in which every activity is a
particular course that must be taken for a given degree program. The immediate predecessors will be
course prerequisites. Do not forget to include all university, college, and departmental course
requirements. Then try to group these courses into semesters or quarters for your particular school.
Which courses, if not taken in the proper sequence, could delay your graduation?

Activity Description Time Immediate

months Predecessor(s)
A College Algebra, Trigonometry, Gen. Chemistry 1 5 -
B Analytic Geometry, Solid Geometry, Gen. Chemistry 2 5 A
C Differential Calculus, College Physics 1 5 B
D Integral Calculus, College Physics 2 5 C
E Differential Equation, Engineering Mechanics, Circuits 1 5 D
F Advanced Eng'g Math, Strenght of Materials, Circuits 2 5 E
G Vector Analysis, Nuclear Physics, Electromagnetics 5 D
H Power System 1, Engineering Economy 5 F, G
I Engineering Management, Advanced Power System 5 H
J Power Plant Design, Electrical System Design 5 I

0 S 0 0 A 5 5 B 10 10 C 15 15 D 20 20 E 25 25 F 30
0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 10 10 5 15 15 5 20 20 5 25 25 5 30

20 G 25 30 H 35 35 I 40
25 5 30 30 5 35 35 5 40

40 J 45
40 5 45
3.34 The Katok Construction Company is involved in constructing municipal buildings and other structures
that are used primarily by city and state municipalities. This requires developing legal documents,
drafting feasibility studies, obtaining bond ratings, and so forth. Recently, Elena Katok was given a
request to submit a proposal for the construction of a municipal building. The first step is to develop
legal documents and to perform all necessary steps before the construction contract is signed.
This requires approximately 20 separate activities that must be completed. These activities, their
immediate predecessors, and time requirements are given in the table shown below. As you can see,
optimistic (a), most likely (m), and pessimistic (b) time estimates have been given for all of the activities
described in the table. Using these data, determine the total project completion time for this
preliminary step, the critical path, and slack time for all activities involved.

Time Required
Activity (Weeks) Description Immediate
a m b Predecessor
1 1 4 5 Drafting legal documents -
2 2 3 4 Preparation of financial statements -
3 3 4 5 Draft of history -
4 7 8 9 Draft demand portion of feasibility study -
5 4 4 5 Review and approval of legal documents 1
6 1 2 4 Review and approval of history 3
7 4 5 6 Review feasibility study 4
8 1 2 4 Draft final financial portion of feasibility study 7
9 3 4 4 Draft facts relevant to the bond transaction 5
10 1 1 2 Review and approval of financial statements 2
11 18 20 26 Firm price received of project -
12 1 2 3 Review and completion of financial portion of feasibility study 8
13 1 1 2 Draft statement completed 6,9,10, 11,12
14 0.1 0.14 0.16 All materials sent to bond rating services 13
15 0.2 0.3 0.4 Statement printed and distributed to all interested parties 14
16 1 1 2 Presentation to bond rating services 14
17 1 2 3 Bond rating received 16
18 3 5 7 Marketing of bonds 15, 17
19 0.1 0.1 0.2 Purchase contracts executed 18
20 0.1 0.14 0.16 Final statement authorized and completed 19
21 2 3 6 Purchase contract 19
22 0.1 0.1 0.2 Bond proceeds available 20
23 0 0.2 0.2 Sign construction contract 21, 22
 a) Solution
Expected time for each activity
t = a + 4m + b
6

1 = (1 + (4 x 4) + 5) / 6 = 3.6667 = 3.7
2 = (2 + (4 x 3) + 4) / 6 = 3 = 3.0
3 = (3 + (4 x 4) + 5) / 6 = 4 = 4.0
4 = (7 + (4 x 8) + 9) / 6 = 8 = 8.0
5 = (4 + (4 x 4) + 5) / 6 = 4.1667 = 4.2
6 = (1 + (4 x 2) + 4) / 6 = 2.1667 = 2.2
7 = (4 + (4 x 5) + 6) / 6 = 5 = 5.0
8 = (1 + (4 x 2) + 4) / 6 = 2.1667 = 2.2
9 = (3 + (4 x 4) + 4) / 6 = 3.8333 = 3.8
10 = (1 + (4 x 1) + 2) / 6 = 1.1667 = 1.2
11 = (18 + (4 x 20) + 26) / 6 = 20.667 = 20.7
12 = (1 + (4 x 2) + 3) / 6 = 2 = 2.0
13 = (1 + (4 x 1) + 2) / 6 = 1.1667 = 1.2
14 = (0.1 + (4 x 0.1) + 0.2) / 6 = 0.1367 = 0.1
15 = (0.2 + (4 x 0.3) + 0.4) / 6 = 0.3 = 0.3
16 = (1 + (4 x 1) + 2) / 6 = 1.1667 = 1.2
17 = (1 + (4 x 2) + 3) / 6 = 2 = 2.0
18 = (3 + (4 x 5) + 7) / 6 = 5 = 5.0
19 = (0.1 + (4 x 0.1) + 0.2) / 6 = 0.1167 = 0.1
20 = (0.1 + (4 x 0.1) + 0.2) / 6 = 0.1367 = 0.1
21 = (2 + (4 x 3) + 6) / 6 = 3.3333 = 3.3
22 = (0.1 + (4 x 0.1) + 0.2) / 6 = 0.1167 = 0.1
23 = (0.0 + (4 x 0.2) + 0.2) / 6 = 0.1667 = 0.2

30.4 22 30.5
33.5 0.1 33.6

0 1 3.7 3.7 5 7.9 7.9 9 11.7 0 11 20.7 22 16 23.2 23.2 17 25.2 30.3 20 30.4
9 3.7 12.7 12.7 4.2 16.9 16.9 3.8 20.7 0 20.7 20.7 22 1.2 23.2 23.2 2 25.2 33.4 0.1 33.5
33.6 23 33.8
33.6 0.2 33.8

0 2 3 3 10 4.2 20.7 13 21.9 21.9 14 22 25.2 18 30.2 30.2 19 30.3

16.5 3 19.5 19.5 1.2 20.7 20.7 1.2 21.9 21.9 0.1 22 25.2 5 30.2 30.2 0.1 30.3
0 S 0
0

0 3 4 4 6 6.2 22 15 22.3 30.3 21 33.6

14.5 4 18.5 18.5 2.2 20.7 24.9 0.3 25.2 30.3 3.3 33.6

0 4 8 8 7 13 13 8 15.2 15.2 12 17.2

3.5 8 11.5 11.5 5 16.5 16.5 2.2 18.7 18.7 2 20.7

Total Project Completion Time = 33.8 weeks

Critical Path = 11 13 14 16 17 18 19 21 23
 EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST SLACK ON CRITICAL
ACTIVITY START FINISH START FINISH (LS-ES) PATH
ES EF LS LF
1 0 3.7 9 12.7 9 NO
2 0 3 16.5 19.5 16.5 NO
3 0 4 14.5 18.5 14.5 NO
4 0 8 3.5 11.5 3.5 NO
5 3.7 7.9 12.7 16.9 9 NO
6 4 6.2 18.5 20.7 14.5 NO
7 8 13 11.5 16.5 3.5 NO
8 13 15.2 16.5 18.7 3.5 NO
9 7.9 11.7 16.9 20.7 9 NO
10 3 4.2 19.5 20.7 16.5 NO
11 0 20.7 0 20.7 0 YES
12 15.2 17.2 18.7 20.7 3.5 NO
13 20.7 21.9 20.7 21.9 0 YES
14 21.9 22 21.9 22 0 YES
15 22 22.3 24.9 25.2 2.9 NO
16 22 23.2 22 23.2 0 YES
17 23.2 25.2 23.2 25.2 0 YES
18 25.2 30.2 25.2 30.2 0 YES
19 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.3 0 YES
20 30.3 30.4 33.4 33.5 3.1 NO
21 30.3 33.6 30.3 33.6 0 YES
22 30.4 30.5 33.5 33.6 3.1 NO
23 33.6 33.8 33.6 33.8 0 YES