(World Economic Forum) FUTURE MAPPING For The Global Agenda

FUTURE MAPPING for the Global Agenda
1
Preface
We can start to comprehend and shape the future only by understanding the interconnection
and interdependencies between the different challenges and key drivers influencing the global
environment.
To stimulate the debate, the Young Global Leaders, a representative community of exceptional
leaders under 40, have developed “Future Mapping for the Global Agenda”. This endeavour aims
to map weak signals, key trends and their interrelation for a better understanding of how they will
© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

change the leadership environment in the coming decades.
We would like to express our deepest appreciation to the Young Global Leaders who contributed
to the project and to thank Roland Berger Strategy Consultants for their support.
I hope "Future Mapping for the Global Agenda" provides you with a valuable tool to shape your
own future.
Klaus Schwab
Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
2
CONTENTS
A. INTRODUCTION
B. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: FORECASTS OF THINK TANKS
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
5. Development & poverty

6. Global governance & security
7. Values & society
C. OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS
1. Collective Opinion: Results of Young Global Leader Survey
2. Individual Opinions: Young Global Leader Opinion Editorials
3. Weak signals
APPENDIX
1. Life in 2030
2. Lessons from the past
3
A. INTRODUCTION
4
The Young Global Leaders community
> The Forum of Young Global Leaders is a unique, multistakeholder community of the
world’s most extraordinary leaders aged 40 or younger who agree to dedicate a part
of their time and energy to jointly work towards a better future
> Each year, the World Economic Forum recognizes 200-300 exceptional individuals,
drawn from every region in the world and from a myriad of disciplines and sectors,
as Young Global Leaders (YGLs) and invites them to join the community as active

members
> The Selection Committee, which is chaired by Her Majesty Queen Rania of the
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, is composed of the world’s most eminent media
leaders
> YGLs engage in task force work under the themes of development & poverty,
education, environment, global governance & security, health, as well as values
& society
5
FUTURE MAPPING for the Global Agenda
BACKGROUND PURPOSE
> The discussions on "Future Mapping" were initiated at > To help us get our bearings in a complex and ever-
the Young Global Leaders Inaugural Summit in changing world, it is useful to ask what the world will
Zermatt in 2005 with the development of a "Vision look like in a decade or two. “Future Mapping for the
2020" scenario and the definition of the five key areas Global Agenda” presents a summary of major trends,
of concern for the future. tendencies and risks which will shape the world in
2030, as predicted by international institutions and
> During the YGL Summit 2007 in Dalian, the Future experts from publicly available sources. It is enhanced

Mapping initiative has been further developed as a key with thought pieces from YGLs, including the results
tool in helping YGLs understand major trends and risks from a survey of the community, as well as a series of
so that they provide inputs for setting the global Opinion Editorials, which provide different perspectives
agenda. and challenge existing assumptions.
> In order to build on existing efforts, bridge knowledge > The presentation aims to stimulate discussion about
gaps and create a shared understanding of the the interconnectivity and interdependence of the
challenges ahead, we have developed “Future various developments and issues, especially the
Mapping for the Global Agenda” as a basis to stimulate emerging trends, but also the disruptive futures.
informed discussion among YGLs and other
constituents of the World Economic Forum.
Enjoy the presentation. We hope it provokes thought.
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How to navigate this presentation
> This presentation consists of four parts:

– Part A (4 pages), Introduction
– Part B, (63 pages), Future Mapping for the Global Agenda
– Part C, (32 pages), Collective Opinion of the Young Global Leaders, including (1) the
results of a survey of the community, and (2) OpEds by select YGLs
– Appendix (6 pages), Annex of special features, including (1) a snapshot of how life might
be in 2030, and (2) lessons learned from the past which include humorous examples of

failed predictions
> Since the document includes animated charts and video material, it is best viewed on your
computer
> Use the right or left arrow key on your keyboard to page through the slides, and use the
mouse for animated content. Use the Back button at the top of each page to jump back to the
previously viewed page. The navigation menu at the bottom of the page allows you to move
directly to the relevant slides. For more information, consult the help section
> For a printer-friendly version, an executive summary (25 pages, 329 KB) and the full version
(193 pages, 2.8 MB) are also available
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1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
8
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
9
OVERVIEW: Key trends in selected general areas
1. POPULATION: The world population growth will slow but regions will differ or
decline. Populations will age rapidly with increased shifts to urban areas
2. ECONOMIES: The global economy will grow significantly, shift to the East and
toward services. Characterized by increased sophistication and greater exchange
3. CORPORATIONS: Companies will become more global, networked, learning-

based and have a greater focus on corporate responsibility
4. GLOBAL FLOWS: The flows of people, natural resources, capital, and knowledge
are changing in surprising ways
5. INNOVATIONS: Current technological developments can be extrapolated into
life-changing innovations of the future
10
1. POPULATION: The world population growth will slow but regions will differ
or decline. Populations will age rapidly with increased shifts to urban areas
Population growth [% p.a.]
3 1 MORE PEOPLE
In the next 23 years, the
world population will…
2 2 SLOWING PACE
AFRICA
Around the world,
population growth will…
1
INDIA

NORTH AMERICA 3 TURNING NEGATIVE
CHINA
CHINA LATIN AMERICA While populations in
0 developing countries…
EUROPE
4 INTO THE CITIES
-1 JAPAN
Urban Rural-urban migration
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 population [%] is speeding up. By 2030…
Bubble size = Population 2007 Bubble size = Population 2030 5 GETTING OLDER
Since life expectancy will
continue to increase…
2007 2030
Sources: United Nations Population Division, City Mayors 11

POPULATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE PEOPLE
In the next 23 years, the world population will balloon to 8.3 billion, up 26% from 6.6 billion today. With an increase
of 1.1% or 70 million people per year, the developing world will grow about eight times faster than industrialized
countries (0.14% p.a.) until 2030. By then, 86% or 7.1 billion people, will be living in developing or emerging
countries, up from 5.5 billion today. In terms of population, the top 5 countries in 2030 will be India (1.505 billion),
China (1.458 billion), the United States (366 million), Indonesia (279 million), and Pakistan (240 million). India will
overtake China in 2025.
2 SLOWING PACE

Around the world, population growth will slow down further (see chart). Having peaked with over 2% annual
growth in the late 1960s, it has dropped to around 1% today and will decline further to 0.75% per year in 2030.
However, there are vast regional differences: Over the next 23 years, Africa will only see a minimal slowdown in
terms of population growth, while population growth in China will have practically come to a halt by 2030. By then,
India’s population will be growing four times faster than China’s.
3 TURNING NEGATIVE
While populations in developing countries will continue growing until after 2050, the turning point in the
developed world will be reached by 2030. Europe’s population will already be shrinking by 2010. Countries like
Japan, Germany, and Italy are already losing population today. By 2030, their populations will have dropped to
1980s levels. Populations in the US and the UK will continue to grow until after 2030, while Russia will lose more
than 20 million inhabitants between now and 2030.
12
POPULATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 INTO THE CITIES

Rural-urban migration is speeding up. By 2030, 4.9 billion people, or 60.1% of the world’s population, will live in
cities (in 2007: 3.2 billion people, or 50%). Over 90% of urban population growth is taking place in developing
countries, mainly in Asia. The fastest-growing cities are not the mega-cities (>10 million inhabitants), but cities
with half a million inhabitants. The largest cities in 2030 are Tokyo (38.7 million), Delhi (37.7 million), Lagos
(33.1 million), Mumbai (32.4 million), and Dhaka (32.3 million).
5 GETTING OLDER
Since life expectancy will continue to increase (see "Health" section), the median age will also rise. Globally, it will

move up from 28.0 today to 34.0 in 2030. In the developed world, it will increase by 5.5 years to 44.1 in 2030, while
the developing world will see an increase of 6.7 years, to 32.2 in 2030. Japan will have the oldest population, with
52.1 on average in 2030, while Sub-Saharan Africa will have the youngest average age with 21.7. In 2030, Asians
will be on average five years younger than North Americans and ten years younger than Europeans.
13
2. ECONOMIES: The global economy will grow significantly, shift to the East and
toward services. Characterized by increased sophistication/greater exchange
GDP growth [% p.a.]
12 1 SHIFTING POWERS
Today, the US, Japan, and
10 Germany have the largest…
2 CONTINUING GROWTH
8 Overall, the world economy
will continue growing at …
6
INDIA

CHINA 3 TOWARDS SERVICES
4 Despite the necessity to
AFRICA US feed ever more people…
2 LATIN AMERICA JAPAN
GERMANY 4 PRODUCTIVITY GAINS
0 Services Almost all economies will see
35 45 55 65 75 85 [% of GDP] continuing productivity…
Bubble size = Real GDP 2007 Bubble size = Real GDP 2030 5 MORE EXCHANGE
Global trade volumes will
increase dramatically…
2007 2030
Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, TNS Infratest 14

ECONOMIES: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 SHIFTING POWERS
Today, the US, Japan, and Germany have the largest economies. Measured in purchasing power parities, China
will have the largest economy by far in 2030. It will be 50% larger than the US, the no. 2 economy, and twice the
size of India’s, which will take third place. On their own, Germany, Brazil, Russia, the UK and France will not even
be one tenth of China’s size. Today’s triad domination will be replaced by five Asian powerhouses: China, India,
Japan, Korea, and Indonesia will dominate, with the Western hemisphere a clear second.
2 CONTINUING GROWTH

Overall, the world economy will continue growing at around 3% per year, meaning that the gross domestic product
will, in real terms, almost double over the next 23 years. Among the largest economies, India will be fastest-
growing (+272% in 23 years), followed by China (+243%) and Indonesia (+199%). Among today’s industrialized
nations, the US has the highest growth rates, with Europe and Japan significantly behind. Very dynamic
economies can also be found in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Jordan, Vietnam, and the Maghreb.
3 TOWARDS SERVICES
Despite the necessity to feed ever more people and also provide crops for energy biomass, the agricultural sector
will continue to shrink to below 1% of GDP and less than 3% of employees in developed economies, and will drop
far below the current 50% in some Sub-Saharan countries. While the share of industry will remain more or less
the same, the services sector will continue to grow almost everywhere. In mature economies like the US and
Japan, the increase will be minimal. But China, India, and other developing countries will move quickly toward
economic sophistication and a higher share of services.
15
ECONOMIES: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 PRODUCTIVITY GAINS
Almost all economies will see continuing productivity gains. Productivity is currently increasing between 1 and 2% per
year in developed economies, and between 3 and 6 % in emerging economies. Over the next 23 years, the
differences will become smaller, with almost all major countries achieving productivity rates between 1.2 and 1.7%
in 2030. Notable exceptions are India, Pakistan, Kenya, and Korea, which will see a 2.5% annual productivity
increase.
5 MORE EXCHANGE

Global trade volumes will increase dramatically between now and 2030, with exports of goods and services rising
from USD 13.6 billion today to USD 50.5 billion in 2030. The intensity and regional scope of trade will depend
significantly on the extent of liberalisation and protectionism in some regions over the next 23 years. There is no
consensus as to whether the world is headed toward more liberalised or more protected markets.
16
3. CORPORATIONS: Companies will become more global, networked,
learning-based and have a greater focus on corporate responsibility
Global footprint
1 INCREASINGLY GLOBAL
FOOTPRINT
Over the next 23 years, …
2 MORE NETWORKS AND
FLEXIBILITY
Between today and 2030 …

3 INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
TO STAY INDEPENDENT
Over the next 23 years, it will …
4 BECOMING LEARNING
ORGANIZATIONS
Networks / Companies of all sizes and …
Flexibility
5 TOWARD CORPORATE
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period RESPONSIBILITY
Companies will be more …
2007 2030
Sources: UNCTAD, Horizon 2020, DB Research 17

CORPORATIONS: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 INCREASINGLY GLOBAL FOOTPRINT

Over the next 23 years, companies will become more global. Today, the number of corporations with a significant
portion of assets, sales, and employees abroad, as measured by the Transnationality Index (TNI), is still
relatively small. A large majority of companies – including multinational corporations – still operates primarily in their
home market and in one or two foreign countries, but not in all major regions of the world. Because of the need to be
present in leading markets, no matter where they are in the world, and to exploit regional differences in costs
and skills, most companies will move further toward having a truly global footprint.
2 MORE NETWORKS AND FLEXIBILITY

Between today and 2030, companies will become increasingly flexible, with regard to both organization and
processes. Active engagement in multiple networks, reaching across sectors, value chains and national borders
will become standard by 2030, as will be joint projects with competitors. To meet shifting customer demands and
to react to technological innovations, new business practices, and business life cycles, organizational structures
and processes will be adapted at a faster rate. Increasingly IT- and robot-supported processes will allow for
greater flexibility of workflows, and employees will increasingly work across countries in virtual teams. There is no
consensus as to whether the corporate structures will become more centralized or decentralized in the next 23
years, nor do experts agree about the balance of insourcing and outsourcing. Swinging between the extremes and
markedly different company structures and forms of cooperation are likely.
18
CORPORATIONS: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO STAY INDEPENDENT

Over the next 23 years, it will become increasingly difficult for almost any company to stay independent. Large
government funds, private equity and hedge funds looking for the best investment opportunities around the world will
put increasing pressure on companies. They will buy corporations and increasingly influence corporate
governance, management decisions and performance, challenging the traditional role of management as those who
define strategy. Corporate management will spend an increasing amount of their time finding ways to achieve critical
size for both market success and staying independent.
4 BECOMING LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS
Companies of all sizes and in all sectors will increasingly try to improve the skills of their employees and keep

them constantly learning. Especially in countries where population is not only aging but also shrinking, companies will
be looking for new ways to recruit, train and retain staff. People over 50 are a major focus, since they will be seen
as a resource that can't be ignored any longer. More companies will have their own corporate campuses, cultivate
close ties with schools and universities and cooperate with research institutes. The perception that employees are
major assets, demanding to be cared about and developed, will be increasingly translated into action.
5 TOWARD CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY
Companies will be more likely to align their actions with demands from all shareholders, focusing particularly on
environmentally and socially responsible and sustainable behavior. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) will
become a top priority on management's agenda in large and small companies alike, helping to mitigate risk, but also
to create business. Consumers, investors, and (potential) employees will increasingly make their decisions based on
an assessment of a company's position in and attitude to society. There is, however, no consensus as to whether
this will also translate into a more long-term perspective.
19
4. GLOBAL FLOWS: The flows of people, natural resources, capital,
and knowledge are changing in surprising ways
PEOPLE
NATURAL
$ $ RESOURCES
$
$ CAPITAL

BRAIN
Sources: United Nations, UNCTAD, future think tanks 20

5. INNOVATIONS: Current technological developments can be
extrapolated into life-changing innovations of the future
Gene- Self-
Mood-sensitive Dream Robotic Synthetic based repairing Sleep
home decor Machines surgery bacteria diets roads surrogates
Location Road Computers Fully

devices reser- that write most auto- Holo- 3D Accele- Single
implanted vation of their own piloted graphic home rated Virtual global

into pets system software cars TV printers schooling Holidays currency
Face- Memory
Full voice Arti- recog- Child- Anti-noise enhance-
Intelligent Wearable interaction ficial nition care technology ment in Space Video
cosmetics computer with PC eyes doors robots in gardens humans factories wallpaper
2007 2030
Sources: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline, BT Technology Timeline 21

LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – GENERAL TRENDS:
Survey results and opinion editorials
SURVEY RESULTS OPINION EDITORIALS
Most important events / discoveries Bartiromo, Maria
since 1980 China And India: A Mixed Picture
Most important trends between now Bremmer, Ian
and 2030 Globalization and a World of Risk
Cabrera, Angel
Power to influence global trends

Not as Flat as It May Seem
Goldman, Neal
Division of power in 2030
Visual Summary
Michel-Kerjan, Erwann
Statement about the future
The New Risk Architecture
Tilman, Leo
Weak signals
The Big Unknown
22
FOR FURTHER READING – GENERAL TRENDS: Key sources,
indicators, and actors
MOST IMPORTANT MOST IMPORTANT KEY GOVERNING ACTORS

SOURCES INDICATORS AND AGREEMENTS
> UNDP: World Population > Population (total number, %) > United Nations Population
Prospects – The 2006 Division, UNPD
Revision Population Database > Share of rural / urban
population (%) > United Nations Population
> UNFPA: State Of World Fund, UNFPA
> Median age (years)

Population 2007 – Unleashing
the potential of urban growth > International Conference on
> Gross domestic product, Population and Development,
> Economist Intelligence Unit, GDP (in real currency, in ICPD, Cairo, 1994
EIU ($) purchasing power parity, per
capita, %) > World Trade Organization,
> UNCTAD: World Investment WTO, Doha Round
Reports > Productivity gains (%)
> Foreign direct investment,
FDI (flows, stocks)
23
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
24
OVERVIEW: Key trends in health
1. LIFE EXPECTANCY: We will all live longer and the gender gap will narrow,
though significant regional differences will emerge
2. CAUSES OF DEATH: The number of deaths from non-communicable diseases
and injuries will increase
3. DISEASES: There will be a transition from infectious to chronic diseases,

but HIV/AIDS will remain a notable exception
4. MEDICAL SERVICES: Healthcare will become increasingly expensive with
a widening gap between rich and poor and a serious deficit of health workers
5. MEDICINES: New medical technologies, substances, and vaccinations will ensure
better health. More personalized medicines will offer tailor-made care
25
1. LIFE EXPECTANCY: We will all live longer and the gender gap will
narrow, though significant regional differences will emerge
Life expectancy [years]
90 1 LONGER LIVES
People will live longer and
Developed longer. Today, average…
countries
80 2 CONVERGING
Emerging GENDER GAP
countries
Overall and in every…
70

3 UP AGAIN FROM THE
BOTTOM
60 In 16 of the world's least…
Developing
countries Women 4 OLDER MOTHERS
50 outliving men While today, fertility rates are
highest among …
2 4 6 8 [years]
Bubble size = Population 2007 Bubble size = Population 2030 5 GETTING VERY OLD
The number of very old
people (80+ years) will…
2007 2030
Source: United Nations 26

LIFE EXPECTANCY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 LONGER LIVES
People will live longer and longer. Today, average global life expectancy is at 67.3 years, ranging between less
than 40 years in some Sub-Saharan states and 82.6 years in Japan. By 2030, life expectancy will grow by around 5
years on the global level, reaching 72.2 years on average. Increases are fastest in the least developed countries
(8.4 years), with emerging countries (6.1) and developed regions (4.0) following. Top of the list will continue to be
Japan in 2030, with an average life expectancy at birth of 85.7 years.
2 CONVERGING GENDER GAP

Overall and in every country, women live longer than men. The gap between male and female life expectancy is
however very different and changing: Today, women in the developing world live between 1 and 3 years longer
than men in the same countries, while in developed nations, the gap is between 5 and 8 years. By 2030, these
regional differences will be less dramatic, with women in almost all countries living 4 to 6 years longer than men.
3 UP AGAIN FROM THE BOTTOM

In 16 of the world's least developed countries, life expectancy has – primarily because of the spread of HIV/AIDS –
decreased dramatically over the past three decades. Today, however, the development of life expectancy is
positive again for the more than 300 million people living in those countries. In Botswana, for example, life
expectancy has gone down by 17 years between 1990 and 2005 to 46 years today. During the next 23 years,
however, it will rise again by 13 years, reaching the level of the late 1970s in 2030. Figures for South Africa,
Zimbabwe and other countries are similar.
27
LIFE EXPECTANCY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 OLDER MOTHERS
While today, fertility rates are highest among 20- to 24-year-old women, it will be the next higher age group of
25- to 29-year-old women that will have the most births in 2030. In Europe, the age at which women give birth is even
higher, with significant absolute and relative increases among 30- to 40-year-olds. Fertility rates of women younger
than 20 and older than 40 will decline over the next 23 years in almost all regions of the world.
5 GETTING VERY OLD

The number of very old people (80+ years) will triple over the next 23 years. At 87 million today, the figure will
rise to 246 million in 2030. Almost 60% of those will be living in Asia, and due to the rising life expectancy at birth,
many more will populate the world in the decades to come. Millions of people born today will live through the 21st
century and see the advent of the 22nd.
28
2. CAUSES OF DEATH: The number of deaths from non-communicable
diseases and injuries will increase
Global deaths [m] 1 MORE DEATHS FROM NON-

12 COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
Cancers
More than two thirds…
10 2 CANCER AND AIDS
Heart disease
ON THE RISE
8 In 2030, cancer, heart…
Stroke
HIV/AIDS

6 3 MORE DEATHS CAUSED
BY INJURY
4 People don't die only from…
2 Road traffic accidents 4 DYING LATER

At present, about 57 million
Tuberculosis
0 people die every year…
0 5 2007
10 15 20 2030
25 30 35Year 5 LOWER INFANT
MORTALITY
The number of infant …
2007 2030
Sources: World Health Organization, PLoS Medicine 29

CAUSES OF DEATH: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
1 MORE DEATHS FROM NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

More than two thirds (70%) of all people will die from non-communicable diseases like cancer, heart diseases,
and diabetes in 2030. Today, the share is only 61%. In total numbers, there will be 47 million annual deaths from
non-communicable diseases in 2030, up 9 million from 38 million today. On the other hand, deaths from
communicable diseases like malaria, tuberculosis or other infections are on the way down, from 18 million today to
16.5 million in 2030. A notable exception is HIV/AIDS, which will grow dramatically (see below).
2 CANCER AND AIDS ON THE RISE

In 2030, cancer, heart diseases, and stroke will continue to be the most significant causes of death worldwide. Two
diseases however, cancer and HIV/AIDS, will rise dramatically by 2030. By then, 10.8 million people will die from
cancer, up 38% from 7.8 million today. And 6.4 million people will die from HIV/AIDS in 2030, up 129% from 2.8
million today. Other causes of death that are becoming more important include diabetes, pulmonary diseases, and
chronic respiratory diseases.
3 MORE DEATHS CAUSED BY INJURY

People don't die only from diseases, but a growing number of deaths will be caused by injuries from road traffic
accidents, self-inflicted deaths and violence. Today, 5.5 million or 9% of all deaths are caused by injury, and this
number will increase by 40% by 2030. Most notably, there will be more deaths caused by road traffic accidents,
especially in developing countries. By 2030, road traffic accidents will be the no. 8 cause of death worldwide, up
75% to 2.1million in 2030.
30
CAUSES OF DEATH: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 DYING LATER
At present, about 57 million people die every year. Due to population growth, this number will increase to 75
million in 2030. Moreover, there will be a significant shift in the age structure of people who die. Today, 19% of
all deaths are among children, 29% among adults aged 15 to 59, and 53% are among people aged 60 and older.
By 2030 in contrast, the respective proportions will have changed to 9%, 29%, and 62%, meaning that there will be
far fewer children dying while almost two-thirds of all deaths will be people older than 60.
5 LOWER INFANT MORTALITY

The number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births was 148 fifty years ago, is 51 today and will shrink further to 27
in 2030. In other words, the risk of death for children younger than 5 will fall by more than 40% in the next 23 years.
Nevertheless, there will still be 5 million deaths among children under five in 2030, 97% of them in the
developing world, and most of them due to infectious diseases such as pneumonia and diarrhea, combined with
malnutrition. 1,800 children are born with HIV every day, with this number expected to increase.
31
3. DISEASES: There will be a transition from infectious to chronic
diseases, but HIV/AIDS will remain a notable exception
Major0 diseases
5 10and causes
15 20of disability
25 30 (ranking)
35 1 EPIDEMIOLOGIC
0 TRANSITION
The world is experiencing…
1 HIV/AIDS
2 SHRINKING BURDEN
2 Depressive disorders
OF DISEASE
3 Heart disease Global "disability-adjusted…

4 Road traffic accidents 3 HIV/AIDS AND
DEPRESSION IN THE LEAD
5 Perinatal conditions
The list of major illnesses…
6 Cerebrovascular disease
4 INCREASINGLY
7 COPD ('smoker's lung') UNHEALTHY LIFESTYLES
8 Smoking, a high-fat diet, …
2007 2030 Year
5 INCREASING EFFORT TO
KICK UNHEALTHY HABITS
Smoking is already either…
2007 2030
Sources: World Health Organization, PLoS Medicine 32

DISEASES: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
1 EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION
The world is experiencing an epidemiologic transition: from infectious disease and acute illness (HIV/AIDS,
malaria, tuberculosis) to chronic disease and degenerative illness (heart diseases, cancer, diabetes). While
developed countries have already undergone this transition, the rest of the world is to follow within the next 23
years, with significant regional variation. With the transition, the risk factors of smoking, high-fat diet, obesity and
lack of exercise will also increase in developing countries.
2 SHRINKING BURDEN OF DISEASE

Global "disability-adjusted life years", a measure used to compare the burden of diseases, will in total increase
very slightly from 1.48 billion today to 1.54 billion in 2030. Adjusted for the growing population, however, this
means that the burden of disease will shrink by 19% for each individual over the next 23 years.
3 HIV/AIDS AND DEPRESSION IN THE LEAD

The list of major illnesses will look completely different in 2030. HIV/AIDS will be at the top (today: No. 3) on the
global scale, with depression and heart disease following. Perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections and also
tuberculosis and malaria will become much less important as global illnesses over the next 23 years – however,
this is less true for the developing world. Hearing loss will be among the top ten causes of burden of disease in high-
and middle-income countries, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias and alcohol-use disorders will be
among the top four causes of disease in high-income countries in 2030.
33
DISEASES: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 INCREASINGLY UNHEALTHY LIFESTYLES

Smoking, a high-fat diet, alcohol consumption, and lack of physical exercise will increase in many parts of the
world over the next 23 years, leading to a rise of non-communicable diseases such as obesity, diabetes, and
cancer. Globally, high levels of under-nutrition and obesity will continue to co-exist depending on levels of
prosperity. The number of people with diabetes will double to 266 million in 2030, and smoking will kill 8.3 million
people in 2030, up from nearly 5 million today.
5 INCREASING EFFORT TO KICK UNHEALTHY HABITS

Smoking is already either heavily taxed – in order to recover the cost placed on national health systems by tobacco-
related illnesses – or even banned in public places in over 40 countries. This trend is moving from west to east
(i.e. California to New York, Ireland to France and Holland in 2008 via the UK in 2007) and shifting from inside-only
bans to outdoor bans also. Advertisements for cigarettes and alcohol and sponsorship is restricted in many
countries. Similarly, there will be regulations and incentives to fight obesity, such as putting daily gym classes
back on school timetables.
34
4. MEDICAL SERVICES: Healthcare will become increasingly expensive with a
widening gap between rich and poor and a serious deficit of health workers
Health expenditure [% of GDP] 1 HIGHER COST OF

22 HEALTHCARE
United States At present, average health…
2 WIDENING RICH-POOR GAP
17
Difference between healthcare
in rich and poor countries are…
12

World 3 LACK OF HEALTH WORKERS
Worldwide, there are 59
million health workers…
7
4 MORE PRIVATE INITIATIVE
Burundi Today, 56% of all health
2 expenditure is public and…
0 5 2007
10 15 20 2030
25 30 35Year 5 MORE POWERFUL HEALTH
PARTNERSHIPS
Already today, low income…
2007 2030
Source: World Health Organization, national statistics 35

MEDICAL SERVICES: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 HIGHER COST OF HEALTHCARE

At present, average health expenditure is 8.7% of GDP globally, up from 7.9% five years earlier, and 14.3% of
total public spending. Both figures are expected to rise. For OECD countries on average, health expenditure alone
will account for 15% of GDP by 2020. Provided that this development continues, some countries like the US and
Switzerland will spend more than one-fifth of their GDP on health by 2030. Total health expenditure, today at USD
4.1 trillion (2004) and up from 2.6 trillion ten years ago, is expected to almost double over the next 23 years.
2 WIDENING RICH-POOR GAP

Differences between healthcare in rich and poor countries are huge today, with OECD countries spending an annual
USD 3,170 per person on health, compared with USD 36 in Africa and Southeast Asia. The OECD countries
make up less than 20% of the world's population but spend 90% of the world's resources on health. While targeted
health initiatives will manage to improve the basic level of medical care for the poor, particularly with regards to
vaccine delivery programs, overall access to medical assistance will improve further (travel time to obtain medical
services is 4x longer in Sub-Saharan Africa than in developed countries).
3 LACK OF HEALTH WORKERS

Worldwide, there are 59 million health workers today, with two-thirds of them (39 million) providing health services,
the other one-third being management and support workers. The WHO calculates that there is already a shortage of
4.3 million doctors, midwives, nurses and support workers worldwide today, compared with what would be
necessary to meet basic health standards. The lack of health workers is most dramatic in developing countries and
should increase by 139% in Africa and by 50% in Southeast Asia over the next years. The lack of health workers
is expected to rise further in developing countries, while health provision is not a problem in rich countries.
36
MEDICAL SERVICES: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 MORE PRIVATE INITIATIVE

Today, 56% of all health expenditure is public and 44% private, with levels of public healthcare expenditure rising
in most countries. While there is no consensus about whether the private or public side is growing faster (in terms of
expenditure), experts predict that staying healthy and getting help when ill or injured will require much more private
initiative in the future. Public healthcare systems will restrict their coverage to basic services, with additional
insurance or healthcare services to be paid for by the patient himself. Today, private health spending is
overwhelmingly paid out-of-pocket. Private insurance will continue to be a luxury of either high-income countries or
high-income households in low-income countries.

5 MORE POWERFUL HEALTH PARTNERSHIPS
Already today, low income countries benefit from large influxes of external resources earmarked for health through
global health partnerships. These include the Global Fund to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria and the Global
Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization (GAVI). Other donors, e.g. the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation plus 5
developed countries, also provide funds. In cooperation with GAVI, they have launched a USD 1.5 billion pilot
program expected to save 5.4 million lives by 2030, protecting children from pneumonia and meningitis. Those
initiatives and other new efforts will become very powerful to improve the global health situation over the next 23
years.
37
5. MEDICINES: New medical technologies, substances, and vaccinations will
ensure better health. More personalized medicines will offer tailor-made care
Medical innovations 1 NEW TECHNOLOGIES

Childhood New technologies will help
leukemia fight diseases. The latest…
vaccine
Nano- Salmo-
machine nella 2 THERAPY CONVERGENCE
techno- vaccine Complementary and
logy
Medicine alternative medicine…
to ease

Medicine diabetes 3 NEW MEDICINES
to ease Many new medicines will be
stomach
cancer developed over the next…
Multiple Malaria
sclerosis vaccine 4 MORE PERSONALIZED
vaccine
MEDICINE
Advances in genomics will...
0 2007
5 10 15 20 25 2030 30 Year
35
5 NEW VACCINATIONS
Vaccination against
childhood leukemia…
2007 2030
Source: World Health Organization 38

MEDICINES: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 NEW TECHNOLOGIES
New technologies will help fight diseases. The latest and most promising developments range from safer T-RAY
(tera-hertz radiation) used for medical 3D imaging, for example in dentistry, to tissue density screening
instruments to visualize cancer. Portable quicklabs in the size of a credit card will enable doctors to instantly
identify bacteria and viruses from a single drop of bodily fluid. Nanomachine technology will be available by 2020,
for example to clean arteries and to avoid certain kinds of brain and heart surgery. Medical technology accounts only
for a rather small fragment of total heath expenditure. In the European Union, for example, this is 6.4% of public
health expenditure or 0.55% of GDP. However, with new and more technologies in use, this share will rise.

2 THERAPY CONVERGENCE
Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is on the rise, due not least to a rising Asian population where
some forms have been part of the medical mainstream for centuries. Traditional Chinese medicine, in particular, is
making inroads in the West. 50% of American adults use CAM already today, and CAM is coming to many high
streets for easy, walk-in consultations. More research funds will be channeled into the effectiveness of these
treatments, to ward off ongoing skepticism from the evidenced-based medical (EBM) proponents. More and more
medical practitioners will offer a mix of both. There is also a growing trend of empowered patients making their
treatment decisions, either by treating themselves or seeking treatments elsewhere, at home or even abroad (health
tourism).
39
MEDICINES: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NEW MEDICINES
Many new medicines will be developed over the next 23 years. Today, two cholesterol lowering compounds are
leading the ranks of about 100 blockbuster drugs, i.e. drugs with over USD 1 billion in sales per year. Future super
drugs will include medicines to ease neuropathic pain and hypertension, stomach cancer and diabetes. Since
nearly 50% of all present blockbuster patents will expire by 2008 and there are few replacements on the horizon,
there will be major shifts in the market. Hundreds of tiny biotech companies, while responsible for only 3% of the
drug industry's total R&D spending, can lay claim to 67% of the drugs in clinical trials.
4 MORE PERSONALIZED MEDICINE
Advances in genomics will make 'personalized medicine' more important and powerful. A growing share of such

treatments use detailed information about a patient's genotype plus a patient's clinical data in order to select a
medication, therapy or preventative measure. Many pharmaceutical firms will focus on innovation and customer-
focused approaches for a much smaller slice of patients, as they move away from relying heavily on blockbuster
products. The industry is thus likely to become heavily fragmented in the 23 years to come.
5 NEW VACCINATIONS
Vaccination against childhood leukemia is very likely over the next decade. A Malaria Vaccine Roadmap has been
designed to deliver an effective vaccine by 2025 with a first effective vaccine by 2015. Therapeutic vaccines,
designed to stimulate the immune system to fight existing diseases, are in development in the US today for type 1
diabetes, multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis. Other vaccinations likely to exist in 2030 include serious
respiratory infections, E. coli and salmonella. The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, established to
strengthen routine vaccinations and introduce new and under-used vaccines in countries with a per capita GDP of
under USD 1,000, is now entering its second phase of funding, which extends through 2014. With polio eradication
almost complete, the next likely target is measles.
40
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – HEALTH:
Bishop, Matthew
Most pressing issues in 2030
The Philanthropy Revolution
Penninger, Josef
The Brave New World of Genetics and …
Salbi, Zainab
Statements about the future

Stronger Women, Stronger Nation
Industry in which Young Global Leaders would Zarur, Andrey
invest half of their personal financial assets Trends in Human Health
Area in which Young Global Leaders would
like to spend a large amount of money
Weak signals
41
FOR FURTHER READING – HEALTH: Key sources, indicators,
and actors

> WHO: World Health Report > Life expectancy (years) > World Health Organization,
2006 WHO
> Mortality and morbidity rates
> WHO: 50 Facts – Global (units per 1,000 individuals) > The World Bank
health situation and trends
> Burden of disease (measured > Millennium Development

1955-2025
in disability-adjusted life years) Goals, MDGs, especially goals
> WHO: WHO Global InfoBase #5 and 6
> Health expenditure (% of
> PLoS Medicine: Projections GDP, % of public spending)
of Global Mortality and
Burdens of Disease > Prevalence of a disease (% of
population, age group)
> PWC: HealthCast 2020 –
Creating a sustainable future > Density of doctors or health
workers (units per 1,000
individuals)
42
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
43
OVERVIEW: Key trends in environment
1. CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: The earth’s temperature will increase and sea levels
will rise. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions and more extreme weather
2. ENERGY: Energy consumption will grow, especially in Asia. Continued fossil fuel
dominance, despite widespread use of renewables and greener technologies
3. WATER: Water consumption will rise, primarily for non-irrigation use, causing

greater water scarcity and more conflicts
4. ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: More forests and grasslands will be converted
to cropland. Rising number of species will become extinct
5. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Environmental regulation will increase and become
stricter. Global agreements will be marked by economic incentives
44
1. CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: The earth’s temperature will increase & sea levels
will rise. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions and more extreme weather
Average global temperature [degrees Celsius]
16 1 GETTING WARMER
The average global
temperature will rise by…
2 RISING SEA LEVEL
Sea level will rise between 6
and 11 centimeters during…
15

3 INCREASING GREEN-
HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Greenhouse gases (GHG)…
4 MORE EXTREME
14 WEATHER
More instances of extreme…
20052007 2010
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Bubble size = Carbon dioxide emissions 5 RISING COSTS
Over the next 23 years,
spending to keep the…
2007 2030
Sources: IPPC, Energy Information Administration, Stern Report 45

CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 GETTING WARMER
The average global temperature will rise by 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius between now and 2030. Over the past 23
years, an overall temperature increase of 0.4 degrees Celsius has been measured, with land temperatures rising
about twice as fast as ocean temperatures. By 2100, projected global temperatures will be between 1.1 and 6.4
degrees Celsius higher than today. During the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago, average global temperature was 6
degrees lower than today.
2 RISING SEA LEVEL

Sea level will rise between 6 and 11 centimeters during the next 23 years. Two processes are at work: melting polar
ice and the expansion of sea water as oceans get warmer, both a result of global warming. Until 2100, the sea level is
expected to rise between 19 and 58 centimeters, not including possible contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice fields. In the unlikely example of a complete meltdown of Greenland's icecap, sea level would rise by 7.2 meters.
If the Antarctic icecap melts, sea level would rise by 61.1 meters. Since the last Ice Age, sea level has risen by 130
meters, with most of the rise occurring 6,000 years ago. From 3,000 years ago to the start of the 19th century, sea
level was almost constant. During the past 15 years, sea level has risen about 3 millimeters per year.
46
CLIMATE & ATMOSPHERE: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 INCREASING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide will continue to rise until 2030.
Over the past 35 years, GHGs have increased by 70%, with power stations, industrial processing, and
transportation fuels the largest emitters. According to IPCC scenarios, emissions will be up to 90% higher in 2030
than today, with non-OECD countries' emissions doubling over the next 23 years. Because of system inertia, the
concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), for example, will rise from a current 383 parts per million (ppm) to over 430
ppm in 2030, even without further emissions. Before industrialization, CO2 concentrations have been a constant 280
ppm for 10,000 years.

4 MORE EXTREME WEATHER
More instances of extreme weather are expected as one result of climate change. Over the next 23 years, there are
very likely to be: a higher number and rising intensity of storms, including cyclones, tornados and hurricanes;
more forest fires; more and more severe droughts; more flooding; and more and longer heat waves. Studies
show that the increasing number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes over the past decades is directly linked to increasing
temperatures, with higher carbon dioxide concentration levels also contributing to more destructive storms.
5 RISING COSTS
Over the next 23 years, spending to keep the climate and atmosphere intact will continue to rise. To limit the
temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius, the concentration of carbon emissions should be stabilized between 450 and
550 ppm. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions accordingly – at least by 25% compared with today – would cost
about 1% of global GDP. Costs caused by further climate change, however, are predicted to be much higher than
cost implied by preventative policies: According to the much-discussed Stern Report, climate change would cost
between 5 and 20% of GDP every year unless drastic action is taken within the next 23 years.
47
2. ENERGY: Energy consumption will grow, esp. in Asia. Continued fossil fuel
dominance, despite widespread use of renewables and greener technologies
Energy consumption [quadrillion Btu]
160 1 GROWING ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
CHINA
Global energy consumption…
US
120 2 SHIFT TO THE EAST
The focus of global energy
demand will shift to…
80

3 MORE RENEWABLES
RUSSIA
Energy from renewable
40 resources such as wind…
INDIA
AFRICA 4 MORE POLITICS
0 National politics are expected
2007 2030 Year to increasingly influence oil…
Bubble size = Population 2007 Bubble size = Population 2030 5 RISING ENERGY PRICES
The price for oil and most
other energies is expected…
2007 2030
Source: International Energy Agency, Institute of Energy Economics 48

ENERGY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 GROWING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Global energy consumption will rise by 47% between now and 2030, to 701.6 quadrillion Btu (British thermal units),
up from 477.2 today. This means that 1.8% more energy will be consumed every year. Changes are fastest in
non-OECD Asia (including China and India) with an annual increase of more than 3%. The Middle East, Africa, and
Central and South America will also have high growth rates at more than 2% per year, while OECD countries'
consumption will go up by only 0.8% per year. The transportation and commercial sectors will have the highest
increase, while industrial and residential energy consumption rises at a slower pace.

2 SHIFT TO THE EAST
The focus of global energy demand will shift to developing countries, especially China. Today, OECD countries
still account for 51.6% of global energy demand, while non-OECD countries will take the lead after 2010,
demanding 57.5% of total primary energy in 2030. In other words: Over 70% of the increase in demand over the next
23 years will come from developing countries, with China alone accounting for 30%. China's demand will more than
double between now and 2030. The largest consumers in 2030 will be China (demanding 20.7% of the world's
energy or 145.4 quadrillion Btu), followed by the US (131.2), Russia (41.6), India (31.9) and Japan (25.4).
49
ENERGY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 MORE RENEWABLES
Energy from renewable resources such as wind, water, sunlight, biofuels, and geothermal heat will almost double
between now and 2030. With 947 mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) however, their share will still be only 5.9% of
total energy demand in 2030, up from 5.0% today. Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy for the
decades to come. The relative share of nuclear, oil, and biomass energy will fall, the latter because developing
countries increasingly switch to using modern commercial energy, offsetting the growing use of biomass as feedstock
for biofuels production and for power and heat generation. Use of coal and gas, plus hydropower and other
renewables, will rise.

4 MORE POLITICS
National politics are expected to increasingly influence oil and gas exploration, production, sales, and the ways
energy companies operate. Only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow
multinational companies free reign, while 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies. In countries such as
Russia and Venezuela, political influence is already strong, with Mexico, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
among those countries where political factors are likely to further limit free market activities in the energy sector.
5 RISING ENERGY PRICES
The price for oil and most other energies is expected to rise over the next 23 years. However, predictions vary and
are volatile. The International Energy Agency sees the price of crude oil falling from its current high back to USD 47
per barrel (159 liters) early in the next decade, and then rising by about 50% before 2030. Others have calculated a
price of USD 105 (Goldman Sachs) or even USD 120 (HWWA) per barrel in 2030. Gas and coal prices are expected
to follow the trend in oil prices. For many renewables, government subsidies will continue to determine price
levels.
50
3. WATER: Water consumption will rise, primarily for non-irrigation use,
causing greater water scarcity and more conflicts
Water consumption [km3]
1.800 1 INCREASING WATER
DEVELOPING CONSUMPTION
1.600 COUNTRIES Global water demand by…
1.400
2 GREATER WATER
1.200 SCARCITY
1.000 In 2030, almost all…
800

DEVELOPED 3 NEW CONFLICTS
COUNTRIES
600 ABOUT WATER
400 INDIA Since water is increasingly…
CHINA
200 4 MORE WATER POLLUTION
US Share of
0 irrigation Today, 2 million tons of waste
per day are disposed of in…
0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 [%]
Bubble size = Population 2007 Bubble size = Population 2030 5 INCREASING EFFORTS
TO SAVE WATER
Since water resources are…
2007 2030
Source: FAO Water, International Water Management Institute 51

WATER: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 INCREASING WATER CONSUMPTION

Global water demand by main water users agriculture (current share: 70%), industry (15%), and households (15%)
will rise from 4,050 km3 today to at least 4,700 km3 in 2030, up 16%. While the developed countries' increase is
only moderate, growing populations (especially in Asia) will demand ever more water. On a global scale,
consumption of water for all non-irrigation uses will rise dramatically by 62%. Household water use will
increase by 71%, of which more than 90% will be in developing countries. Industrial water demand will increase
significantly in developing countries, exceeding the demand of developed countries by 2025. Since the level of
water that can be withdrawn is limited, the amount of water used for agricultural use can rise only by 4% between

now and 2030, in turn constraining food production.
2 GREATER WATER SCARCITY
In 2030, almost all countries in the southern hemisphere will suffer from a scarcity of fresh water, with the Middle
East, the Maghreb, northern China, and large parts of India and South Africa most affected. Water scarcity is a
result of increasing use of water due to population increase and changing lifestyle, increasingly polluted and
destroyed reservoirs, and it is also accelerated by climate change. Water scarcity will cause substantial shifts in
where the world's food is grown, with increasing reliance on food imports a likely effect in many developing
countries. Poor countries, unable to finance imports, will experience increased hunger and malnutrition. By 2030,
water scarcity will cause annual global losses of more than 350 million metric tons of food production, slightly
more than the entire current US grain crop.
52
WATER: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NEW CONFLICTS ABOUT WATER

Since water is increasingly scarce and demand is rising, conflicts about water will rise. 40% of humanity lives in the
260 major international water basins shared by more than two countries, hence the potential for interstate conflicts.
However, conflicts and tensions over water are most likely to arise within national borders, in the downstream areas
of distressed river basins. Areas such as the lower regions of China's Yellow River or the Chao Phraya River in
Thailand, for example, have already been experiencing water stress for several years. Countries which rely heavily on
water for agricultural use, such as China, India, Iran, and Pakistan, are particularly at risk for water-related conflicts.
Political tensions, civil protest, and violence may also occur in reaction to water privatization.
4 MORE WATER POLLUTION

Today, 2 million tons of waste per day are disposed of in fresh water, including agricultural, industrial and human waste.
Agriculture is responsible for most of the pollution (up to 70%) and for the depletion of groundwater, both of which
are accelerating. While the surface water quality has improved in the past and will continue improving in developed
countries, prospects for developing countries are less optimistic. By 2030, the high level of water pollution – 90% of
sewage and 70% of industrial waste is discharged into water courses without treatment today – will be reduced only
partly. Rapid urbanization and unsustainable agriculture are the major problems for upgrading water quality.
5 INCREASING EFFORTS TO SAVE WATER
Since water resources are increasingly scarce, water-saving measures will gain importance over the next 23 years.
Especially in agriculture, water-saving technology will make the use of water more efficient, and infrastructure
improvements will save water, too. Today, up to 30% of fresh water supplies are lost due to leakage. In some major cities,
losses can run as high as 40 to 70%. These numbers will be significantly lower by 2030. However, efforts to save water
will not be restricted to more efficient use and better transportation, but people's behavior will change, too. Forced by
more regulation and higher economic incentives, per capita consumption of water will go down, especially in developed
countries and in regions where water is scarce. 53
4. ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: More forests and grasslands will be
converted to cropland. Rising number of species will become extinct
Conversion of land [%] 1 FURTHER CONVERSION
70 OF LAND
TROPICAL SAVANNAS In the 23 years to come…
60 FLOODED GRASSLANDS
CONIFEROUS FORESTS 2 INCREASING LAND LOSS
Climate change and the
50 growth of urban areas are…

3 DESTRUCTION OF WATER
40
MONTANE GRASSLANDS ECOSYSTEMS
AND SHRUBLANDS Marine, coastal, and…
30
4 MORE EXTINCT SPECIES
In 2030, there will be many
20 fewer species on earth…
0 5 2007
10 15 20 2030
25 30 35Year
5 INCREASING PROTECTION'
EFFORTS
Efforts to protect…
2007 2030
Sources: UNEP, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 54

ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 FURTHER CONVERSION OF LAND

In the 23 years to come, humans will need more and more land to grow food. Consequently, the conversion of
forests and grasslands into cropland will continue, but at an accelerated rate. For example, forest equal to the
size of Venezuela has been felled over the past decade, with the deforestation of an annual 13 million hectares
only about halfway compensated for by reforestation. As the chart shows, more than half of the area that can
potentially be converted into cultivated systems has already been converted. By 2030, the ratio will have increased,
with tropical savannas, flooded grasslands, and coniferous forests shrinking to provide new land for
agriculture.

2 INCREASING LAND LOSS
Climate change and the growth of urban areas are key drivers of land loss. Because of desertification, for example,
more than 60 million people will have left Africa's Sahelian region for North Africa and Europe by 2030. The region is
no longer habitable, as will be many coastal areas affected by rising sea levels. The amount of agricultural land
available for each person in developing countries has declined from 0.79 acres in the early 1960s to 0.51 acres
today. This figure is expected to reach 0.39 acres by 2030.
55
ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 DESTRUCTION OF WATER ECOSYSTEMS

Marine, coastal, and freshwater ecosystems will be further damaged by 2030. In the past 23 years, about 20% of
corals and 35% of mangroves have been lost and over a quarter of all fish populations are now
overharvested. Freshwater species populations fell by 50% over the same period, and groundwater is being
consumed faster than it is being replenished. In the next 23 years, groundwater tables will continue to fall, and
the destruction of water ecosystems is predicted to continue as well.
4 MORE EXTINCT SPECIES
In 2030, there will be many fewer species on earth compared with today. Increasing use of land and climate

change threaten up to 40% of all organisms, with studies predicting 21 to 24% extinction in Asia, 16 to 35% in
Africa, and more moderate extinction rates in Latin America by 2030. Mammal and bird species are disappearing at
100 times the natural rate. In some ecosystems – such as coral reefs, wetlands and tropical rainforests – the rate is
estimated to be up to 10,000 times greater. Invasive alien species, brought into different habitat by humans, will
increasingly threaten biodiversity in the decades ahead.
5 INCREASING PROTECTION EFFORTS
Efforts to protect ecosystems and preserve biodiversity will increase over the coming 23 years. Today, there are
over 100,000 protected areas worldwide, covering over 12% of the Earth's land surface, and marine protection
covers 0.5% of the world's oceans. Many nations have laws to protect ecosystems: for example, forbidding hunting,
restricting land development or creating preserves. In the future, laws are likely to become more strict. Moreover,
there will be increasing regional and international efforts to halt biodiversity loss, e.g. by the European Union.
56
5. ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Environmental regulation will increase and
become stricter. Global agreements will be marked by economic incentives
Global reach of policies
1 STRICTER ENVIRON-
MENTAL LAWS
Over the next 23 years…
2 MORE GLOBAL-LEVEL
AGREEMENTS
Since climate change…

3 NEW ECONOMIC
INCENTIVES
Monetary incentives will…
Economic 4 MORE VOLUNTARY

incentives for CORPORATE ACTION
eco-friendly Corporations will voluntarily…
behavior
5 TOWARDS
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period SUSTAINABILITY
Environmental policy will…
2007 2030
Sources: UNEP, future think tanks 57

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 STRICTER ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS

Over the next 23 years, many countries will strengthen their environmental institutions and impose stricter
regulations, for example by tightening restrictions on pollution, and increasing fines for environmental crimes.
While command and control policy via direct regulation will still be important, cooperative forms of policy-making,
involving business, NGOs, science and other players, will provide the basis for most environmental legislation. In
most countries, environmental planning and environmental impact assessment will become commonplace, if
they aren't already.

2 MORE GLOBAL-LEVEL AGREEMENTS
Since climate change, air pollution, and water supply are cross-border problems, environmental policy will be made
on the global level. Multilateral global agreements (such as those that resulted from the 1992 United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, the Kyoto Protocol, or agreements by G8 and other
multilateral decision-making bodies) will increase in number and scope to make environmental protection effective.
There is no consensus on whether it will be easier or more difficult to include all major players in global-level
environmental agreements in the future.
58
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NEW ECONOMIC INCENTIVES

Monetary incentives will increasingly govern the behavior of both industry and households with regard to the
environment. Based on positive experiences with the allocation and trading of greenhouse gas emission
rights, more areas will be incorporated into the system of trading environmental rights. For example, the trading of
rights to pollute not only the air, but also soil or water, or the conversion of forests to cropland, are seen by many
experts as common economic incentives for more environmentally-friendly behavior in 2030.
4 MORE VOLUNTARY CORPORATE ACTION

Corporations will voluntarily implement an increasingly broader range of environmental policies, whether alone,
in business groups, or with various non-corporate players such as NGOs. Acting environmentally-friendly is seen by
most corporations as a vital part of their business, both in terms of corporate responsibility and with regard to
business success. By 2030, there will be hardly any products or services on the market that are not certified as
eco-friendly.
5 TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY
Environmental policy will increasingly merge with other policies that share the common goal of making life on
earth sustainable. Sustainability policy, including the economic, social, and environmental dimensions, is likely
to be at the center of policy-making in 2030. This is true not only for state players, but for non-governmental and
corporate players as well.
59
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – ENVIRONMENT:
Most important trends between now Agassi, Shai
and 2030 The Future of Transportation
Kuzamonovic, Maja
On Turbulence and Entanglement
Payet, Rolph
Implications of the trends

The Future of Water
Zafar, Sobhan
Starfish Nation
Industry in which Young Global Leaders would
invest half of their presonal financial assets
Weak signals
60
FOR FURTHER READING – ENVIRONMENT: Key sources, indicators,
and actors

> IPCC Assessment Reports, > Greenhouse gas emissions > United Nations Framework
e.g. Fourth Assessment Report (billions of tons) Convention on Climate
"Climate Change 2007“ (AR4) Change, UNFCCC, with the
> Carbon dioxide concen- latest update: Kyoto Protocol
> UNEP: Global Environment tration in the atmosphere

Outlook (parts per million / ppm) > Intergovernmental Panel on
> Stern Review on the Climate Change, IPCC
Economics of Climate > Change in world temperature > Earth Summits, Rio de
Change (degrees Celsius) Janeiro, 1992, and
> IEA: World Energy Outlook > Change of sea level (cm) Johannesburg, 2002
> IFPRI / IWMI: Global Water > Energy consumption (million > United Nations Environment
Outlook to 2025 tons of oil equivalent, mtoe) Programme, UNEP
> Millennium Ecosystem > International Energy Agency,
> Extinct species (number, %) IEA
Assessment
61
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
62
OVERVIEW: Key trends in education
1. LITERACY: The number of illiterate people will decrease and the gender gap
will narrow, with marked improvements in the developing world
2. SCHOOLING: More people will finish primary and secondary level education.
Smaller classes, increasing use of technology worldwide
3. HIGHER EDUCATION: University education will become increasingly common.

Greater female participation, more private financing
4. EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: The demand for qualified educational workers
will rise but large regional differences will emerge
5. PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Education will become an increasingly lifelong
phenomenon characterized by a higher degree of customization
63
1. LITERACY: The number of illiterate people will decrease and the gender
gap will narrow, with marked improvements in the developing world
Illiteracy
[% of total population aged 15+] 1 HIGHER LITERACY
On a global scale, the number
50 of people with no formal …
2 NARROWING GENDER GAP
Over the next 23 years, the gap
SOUTH between the literacy of men …
20 ASIA

3 LARGEST IMPROVEMENTS
IN POOR COUNTRIES
In the next 23 years, there …
10 LATIN
AMERICA 4 SHRINKING AGE
CHINA
DIFFERENCES
SOVIET WESTERN Youth literacy is higher than …
BLOC EUROPE Gender gap [%, 5 NEW INITIATIVES
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 women higher]
The fight against illiteracy will
be supported by new …
2007 2030
Sources: UNESCO, UN, ICPD 64

LITERACY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 HIGHER LITERACY
On a global scale, the number of people with no formal education will decline from 862 million (or 20.5% of the
population over 15 years of age) today to 799 million (13%) in 2030. In other words, literacy rates are increasing
significantly, all the more so when taking population growth into account, and this is true for all countries. While the
former Soviet bloc has already achieved a literacy rate of almost 100%, all developed countries will come very
close to this figure by 2030. In the remaining developing countries, the share of people who cannot read or write
still ranges from 15% to almost 50% today, and will decrease to between 0% and 25% in 2030.

Over the next 23 years, the gap between the literacy of men and women will continue to narrow. Overall, today's
gap of 13 percentage points – the number of men who can read and write is 13 percentage points higher than that
of women – will go down to 10 percentage points. Experts predict this trend will continue as we approach 2030.
The gap will shrink fastest in China, while in Africa there will be only very little progress. Nevertheless, there will still
be more women than men without education in most of the world, with one exception: the Caribbean. Here in
2030, more women than men will be able to read and write.
65
LITERACY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 LARGEST IMPROVEMENTS IN POOR COUNTRIES

In the next 23 years, the largest improvements regarding literacy will be in the developing countries. South Asia,
where illiteracy is highest today at 39% of men and 66% of women, will manage to halve the share of people who
cannot read or write by 2030. North Africa, where 33% of men and 55% of women have no education at all, will also
achieve much lower rates of illiteracy by 2030 (projected figures are 14% of men and 34% of women). In Latin
America and China, there will be practically no illiteracy by 2030.
4 SHRINKING AGE DIFFERENCES
Youth literacy is higher than adult literacy. This is true today and will be true in 2030. Nevertheless, there will be

changes over the next 23 years: The advantage of youths will shrink, while both age groups become more literate.
Projections for 2015 predict that youth literacy will go up from 87% to 90%, while adult literacy will increase from
82% today to 87% in 2015. Experts expect that this development will continue beyond that date.
5 NEW INITIATIVES
The fight against illiteracy will be supported by new international efforts. Under UNESCO's Literacy Initiative
for Empowerment (LIFE), for example, 35 countries with a literacy rate of less than 50% or over 10 million illiterates
are targeted. The focus of such initiatives will shift from implementing measures to increase literacy levels to
ensuring the sustainability of earlier achievements.
66
2. SCHOOLING: More people will finish primary and secondary level
education. Smaller classes, increasing use of technology worldwide
Secondary education or higher
[% of total population aged 15+] 1 MORE PEOPLE WITH
SOVIET
SCHOOL EDUCATION
100 BLOC The number of people who …
WESTERN
EUROPE 2 RISING ENROLLMENT
80
NUMBERS
CHINA
Both the number and …
60 SOUTH ASIA

LATIN
3 NARROWING GENDER
40 AMERICA DIFFERENCES
While there is hardly any …
20 4 SMALLER CLASSES
On average, there is one
0 teacher for every 21 pupils …
Gender gap
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [%, men higher] 5 INCREASING USE OF
COMPUTERS
Computers will increasingly …
2007 2030
Sources: UNESCO, UN, ICPD 67

SCHOOLING: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE PEOPLE WITH SCHOOL EDUCATION

The number of people who have enjoyed at least basic formal education will be rising fast. Today, 80% of all people
over age 15 have been to primary school, and about half of the world's population (49%) hold a secondary degree.
By 2030, these numbers will have risen to 91% (at least primary education) and 55% (secondary level education
or higher). In total numbers, 2.2 billion more people will have attended primary education institutions by 2030. As
with literacy, the former Soviet Union countries are top, and so are the OECD and Central Asian countries. Over
the next 23 years, it will be Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central Asia, China and the Middle East that catch up
fastest.

2 RISING ENROLLMENT NUMBERS
Both the number and proportion of pupils that go to school will rise over the next 23 years. Today, 640 million
children of primary education age (5-12 years) are enrolled in school. Over the next 23 years, the number of
students will rise slightly by 2% to 654 million in 2015 and around 680 million in 2030. Secondary education
enrollment is expected to rise even faster. Over the past ten years, it has increased by 14% to 502 million students
today. Enrollment rates are 86% at the primary level and 65% at the secondary level today. Both rates are rising
today – except for some of the poorest countries – and are expected to rise further until 2030.
68
SCHOOLING: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NARROWING GENDER DIFFERENCES

While there is hardly any difference between men and women when it comes to primary education today or in
2030, there are still vast differences in secondary education. Today, 42% of men and only 32% of women over
the age of 15 have enjoyed 9 or 10 years of formal education. By 2030, this difference will have declined moderately,
with 48% of men and 40% of women having completed secondary education. The gender gap will narrow most
rapidly in China and Eastern Europe, while there are also improvements in Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa.
4 SMALLER CLASSES
On average, there is one teacher for every 21 pupils in primary schools and one teacher per 17 pupils in

secondary schools worldwide today. Over the past 16 years, this pupil-teacher ratio has changed for the better,
since one teacher had an average of 27 pupils in 1991. Experts predict further improvement in the pupil-teacher
ratio between now and 2030.
5 INCREASING USE OF COMPUTERS
Computers will increasingly become integrated into both school life and curriculum, not only in developed and
transitional economies, but increasingly in developing countries, too. Computer classes will be standard in 2030,
as will be basic IT literacy starting at primary education levels. Initiatives such as "one laptop per child" are
working to ensure that students in all parts of the world can access global information.
69
3. HIGHER EDUCATION: University education will become increasingly
common. Greater female participation, more private financing
Tertiary education
[% of total population aged 15+] 1 MORE WELL-EDUCATED
PEOPLE
35 WESTERN Today, 10% of the world's …
EUROPE
2 MORE UNIVERSITY
SOVIET STUDENTS
BLOC 25
The number of university …

3 TOWARD GENDER PARITY
15 Today, the number of men with
CHINA
university education is still …
LATIN
SOUTH 4 MORE PRIVATE MONEY
5 AMERICA
ASIA
Higher education will be
increasingly financed with …
Gender gap
0 1 2 3 4 5 [%, men higher] 5 MORE PRIVATE INFLUENCE
Universities will be increasingly
subject to influence from …
2007 2030
Sources: UNESCO, UN, ICPD, OECD 70

HIGHER EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE WELL-EDUCATED PEOPLE

Today, 10% of the world's adults have a higher education degree (tertiary education level). Even though this
share will have risen only to 11% by 2030, the total number of top educated people will have gone up by over
50% or 258 million to 748 million. The reason for this is not only population growth, but also that less-educated
people die while younger ones are becoming more educated. Regional variation will still be large in 2030, with
only 2% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa having a university degree, 5% in China and South Asia, 10%
in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, 20% in the former Soviet Union, and 30% in Western Europe. The most
rapid rise toward more tertiary education is expected to be in Western Europe, up from 21% today.

2 MORE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS
The number of university students will rise further between now and 2030. Today, 132 million students are
enrolled in universities across the globe, up 40 million (43.5%) compared with ten years ago. Three-quarters of
that growth took place in developing countries, where the number of university students has almost doubled from 41
million to 76 million students today. Experts forecast that the number of students will rise fastest in Asian countries,
with China already seeing increased university enrollment. The proportion of students aged 18-22 at China's
universities, for example, has more than quadrupled in the past ten years, with enrollment rates of up to 40%
forecast for after 2020.
71
HIGHER EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 TOWARD GENDER PARITY

Today, the number of men with university education is still significantly higher than that of women. On the global
average, 11% of men over 15 have received tertiary education, while this is the case for only 8% of all women
today. During the next 23 years, these differences will become smaller, and in the former Soviet states the gap
will have reopened in the other direction: women will be better educated than men. Among current students in
tertiary education levels, gender parity has already been achieved, with a Gender Parity Index (GPI) of 1.03 on global
average. In developed and transition countries, female participation is significantly higher with a GPI of 1.27,
while in developing countries, there will still be many more men in universities in 2030.
4 MORE PRIVATE MONEY

Higher education will be increasingly financed with private capital, via student fees and donations from
corporations and private individuals. However, there are likely to be large regional differences in the share of
private and public money allocated for education. Today, about 80% of the OECD countries' higher education
expenditure comes from public sources, ranging from close to 100% in Scandinavian states, to around 45% in the
US and Japan, and 21% in Korea. In emerging countries, the ranges are equally wide, with public sources
providing 22% in Chile, 43% in Jordan, 57% in China, 83% in Thailand and 99% in India.
5 MORE PRIVATE INFLUENCE
Universities will be increasingly subject to influence from private organizations and individuals. Compelled to
engage in the education process, the business community will strongly promote courses and educational offers.
The educational sector will continue to develop as an industry, with multi-stakeholder partnerships the norm.
72
4. EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: The demand for qualified educational
workers will rise but large regional differences will emerge
Need for teachers
[School-age population, 5-14 years, millions] 1 DIVERGING NEED FOR
EDUCATIONAL WORKERS
400 Because population growth …
AFRICA 2 RISING NUMBER OF

300 TEACHERS
The total number of teachers …
INDIA

3 DELAYED UNIVERSAL
200 PRIMARY EDUCATION
CHINA
Over 40 countries are unlikely…
100 LATIN AMERICA 4 FALLING PUPIL-TEACHER
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
RATIO
0 The number of pupils per…
2007 2030 Year 5 DIFFERENT QUALIFICATIONS
NEEDED
In general, the countries ..
2007 2030
Sources: UNESCO, UN 73
EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 DIVERGING NEED FOR EDUCATIONAL WORKERS

Because population growth and aging vary by region, the demand for educational workers will diverge over the
next 23 years. Overall, the number of school-age children (aged 5-14) will rise between now and 2030, if only
very slightly, by 59 million or 4.8%. However, if looking at individual regions, the differences are vast: Africa and
North America will need more teachers, with the 5-14 age group rising by more than 103 million in Africa, and
3 million in the US and Canada. In the rest of the world, fewer teachers will be needed: The number of school-age
children will decline in Europe (-11 million), Latin America (-6 million), and also in Asia: Both China (-26 million)
and India (-13 million) will have dramatically smaller numbers of school-age children by 2030.

2 RISING NUMBER OF TEACHERS
The total number of teachers is projected to rise, but given the population trends, only very moderately, and with
great regional variation. The fast pace of the past 23 years will certainly not continue: Since 1990, for example, the
number of primary level teachers rose by 3.7 million to 26.4 million today (+16%), and the amount of secondary
level teachers went up at an even higher rate, by 7.8 million to 27.6 million today (+39.4%). For the first time,
there are now more teachers at the secondary level than at the primary level. In most regions with declining school-
age populations, the number of teachers will fall. China could reduce its number of teachers by 1.8 million, for
example, without changing the number of students per teacher. This provides an opportunity to improve education
quality by investing more resources per teacher and pupil.
74
EDUCATIONAL WORKERS: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 DELAYED UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION

Over 40 countries are unlikely to achieve the goal of universal primary education (UPE) by 2015, as set in the
Millennium Development Goals, due to a lack of educational workers. The overall number of teachers is not an
obstacle to meeting the goal, but rather their uneven regional distribution: Especially in the Arab states and in
Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of teachers needs to rise dramatically before 2015. The Arab states will require
an additional 450,000 teachers, an increase of 26% from current levels. Another 325,000 teachers will be needed
in South and West Asia, representing an increase of 7%. In terms of absolute numbers, the greatest challenge lies
in Sub-Saharan Africa, where resources must increase from 2.4 to 4.0 million teachers, an increase of 68% between
2004 and 2015.

4 FALLING PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO
The number of pupils per teacher is expected to fall over the next 23 years. Today, the pupil-teacher ratio is
21:1 on average across all school levels, down from 27:1 in 1991 and 24:1 in 1999, with higher pupil-teacher
ratios at the primary than the secondary level in all regions. However, there are and will continue to be vast regional
differences. Six African countries, for example, have more than 60 students per teacher on average, with
Ethiopia's ratio topping the list at 72:1. In Latin America, the ratio is much lower at 22:1, while in Europe and the US
the ratio is already at a very low 13:1.
5 DIFFERENT QUALIFICATIONS NEEDED
In general, the countries needing the most teachers have the least qualified personnel. However, this concern
for quality is and will continue to be found even in the developed regions. North America and Western Europe
face a shortage in specialized teachers, particularly in math and science. In many parts of the world, there is a
need for higher quality education, including better-skilled teachers. Becoming computer-literate is also a
necessity for teachers, no matter where they are on the globe. 75
5. PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Education will become an increasingly
lifelong phenomenon characterized by a higher degree of customization
Life-long learning
1 MORE LIFELONG LEARNING
While this trend is not new,
thinking about education as …
2 CHANGES IN TECHNICAL
AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING
Rather than providing skills …

3 MORE AND DIFFERENT
EXECUTIVE EDUCATION
Today, there are already …
4 INCREASING CUSTOMIZATION
OF EXECUTIVE EDUCATION
Executive education will see …
Personalization of
learning packages 5 GLOBALIZATION OF PROFES-
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period SIONAL EDUCATION OFFERS
Vocational and executive …
2007 2030
Source: UNESCO, UNESCO-UNEVOC 76

PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE LIFELONG LEARNING

While this trend is not new, thinking about education as a lifelong necessity and opportunity will still be the
defining development in professional education between today and 2030, with both supply and demand of
educational offers changing and rising accordingly. Learning packages will be increasingly personalized,
modular, and flexible in terms of content, length and depth of courses, learning material, place of study, etc. Today,
once people are fully employed, learning phases rarely last longer than a seminar. By 2030, however, regular
alternation between work and educational phases will be common in many jobs around the world.
2 CHANGES IN TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING

Rather than providing skills only for a single job profile, vocational and technical training will increasingly lay the
foundation for further learning. This training will incorporate general education content and provide preparation
for a cluster of occupations in a given sector. The average age at which students enter and leave vocational
training will continue to rise, and training will be increasingly linked with employers, ensuring that the training can
best meet the labor market requirements.
77
PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 MORE AND DIFFERENT EXECUTIVE EDUCATION

Today, there are already over 600 business schools offering a wide range of executive courses, most of them
still focusing on general leadership and management. Over the next 23 years, many new schools will emerge,
the majority of them in non-Western countries, with executive schools in India and South Africa rapidly rising
through the ranks. Also, the number of non-English courses will rise. Similar to the "e-com" focus at the beginning
of the century, environmental topics feeding into "climate leadership" will be a major issue in business schools for at
least the next decade. Soft skills training and technical courses will become more important, as will pure finance
and marketing courses offered to those who started their careers early and got promoted quickly, and now need to
catch up on mission skills and expertise.

4 INCREASING CUSTOMIZATION OF EXECUTIVE EDUCATION
Executive education will see a shift from standard programs with open enrollment courses to tailor-made
programs. As corporations become more sophisticated "customers of education" and manage academic
partnerships just like any other vendor relationship, including hard business metrics about the outcome of
courses, the demand for tailor-made programs will increase. More business schools will even pull out of the
open enrollment market altogether.
5 GLOBALIZATION OF PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION OFFERS
Vocational and executive education will increasingly be offered globally and connected around the world. With
an increasing number of partner institutions around the world, both teacher and student exchanges will be
common, not only in the top courses. Top Western executive schools, for example, will increasingly partner with
schools in South America, Europe, Japan, China and Korea. Non-Western schools will partner with US and
European institutions and incorporate their courses for a better understanding of Western business practices.
78
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – EDUCATION:
Country in which Young Global Leaders would Baggio, Rodrigo
spend a one-year sabbatical for professional development The Possible World Of Technology Used For Good
Foreign language that Young Global Leaders would Wood, John
recommend a 15-year-old to learn A Call to Action
Organization in which Young Global Leaders would

recommend a 15-year-old to do an internship
Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a
large amount of money
Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a
large amount of money – other ideas
Weak signals
79
FOR FURTHER READING – EDUCATION: Key sources, indicators,
and actors

> UNESCO: Education For All > Literacy rates (% of total > United Nations Educational,
Global Monitoring Report population, % of age group) Scientific and Cultural
2007 Organization (UNESCO)
> Enrolment rates (% of popu-
> UNESCO: Literacy Decade lation in particular age group) > Millennium Development

Statistics > Gender ratios (girls to boys in Goals, MDG (especially goals
primary, secondary, and no. 2 and 3)
> UIS: Various education
reports and statistics tertiary education) > International Conference on
> Gender Parity Index, GPI Population and Development,
> UNESCO-UNEVOC:
(index value) ICPD, Cairo, 1994
Participation in Formal TVET
Worldwide > Pupil-teacher ratio (number of > UNESCO Education for all
pupils per teacher) (EFA) Forum
> Education expenditure (USD,
% of GDP)
80
B. GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030: RESULTS OF YGL SURVEY
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
81
OVERVIEW: Key trends in development & poverty
1. INCOME & INEQUALITY: The income gap between countries will narrow and the
global middle class will expand but with growing income inequality within countries
2. MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: The number of undernourished people will shrink.
Changing trends in diets, increased food safety concerns
3. EMPLOYMENT: Despite more jobs, the number of unemployed will rise fast with

persistent underemployment but rising female employment and less child labor
4. INFRASTRUCTURE: To meet the rising demand for infrastructure services,
investments will increase
5. DEVELOPMENT AID: More money will be spent on aiding development with help
from celebrities and increased remittances but aid increasingly politicized
82
1. INCOME & INEQUALITY: The income gap betw. countries will narrow and the
global middle class will expand but growing income inequality within countries
Per capita income [% of developed countries]
25 1 DECREASING NUMBER OF
POOR
Poverty will decline …
23 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
2 POOR COUNTRIES
CATCHING UP
21
The gap between average …

19 3 WIDENING INCOME GAPS
WITHIN COUNTRIES
17 While the income gap …
People living
on less than 4 AFRICA FALLING BEHIND
15 USD 1 per day By 2030, sub-Saharan Africa
alone will be home to more …
500 600 700 800 900 1.000 1.100 1.200 [million]
Developing countries 2007 Developing countries 2030 5 EXPANDING GLOBAL
MIDDLE CLASS
By 2030, 1.2 billion people …
2007 2030
Source: World Bank 83

INCOME & INEQUALITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 DECREASING NUMBER OF POOR

Poverty will decline significantly between today and 2030, despite continuing population growth. The number of
people living on less than USD 1 a day will be cut in half over the next 23 years, from 1.1 billion now to 550
million in 2030. Similarly, the number of people living on less than USD 2 a day will fall below 1.9 billion, 800
million fewer than today. However, there are vast regional differences. While poverty in Asia will decline in relative
and absolute terms, for example, the number of very poor people in Africa will not go down over the next 23
years.
2 POOR COUNTRIES CATCHING UP

The gap between average incomes in developed countries and incomes in developing countries is going to
narrow between now and 2030. Today, people in developing countries earn on average only 16.5% of what people
earn in developed countries, but by 2030, per capita income in developing countries will be 22.5% of per capita
income in developed countries. In absolute terms, the picture looks even brighter in developing countries. Average
per capital income will more than double from USD 4,800 today to USD 11,000 in 2030, roughly equal to current
levels in the Czech Republic.
84
INCOME & INEQUALITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 WIDENING INCOME GAPS WITHIN COUNTRIES

While the income gap between rich and poor countries narrows, income inequality will widen within most
countries. Demographics play a role, as aging societies tend to become more unequal. But the main driver is the
widening difference between skilled and unskilled workers. In East Asia, for example, skilled workers earn 3.7
times more than unskilled today, the ratio of skilled wages relative to unskilled wages will increase to 4.6 by
2030. Between now and 2030, income distribution will widen in as many as two-thirds of all countries, including the
most populous ones, making social tensions more likely. As measured by the Gini coefficient, the level of inequality
will decrease in many Latin American states between now and 2030, while income distribution in most African
states will become much more unequal.

4 AFRICA FALLING BEHIND
By 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa alone will be home to more than half (55%) of the world's poorest 10%, as
measured in per capita income. Today, Africa's share of the world's poorest 10% is only 29.5%, while half of the
poorest tenth of the world's population still lives in Asia. Over the next 23 years, the likelihood that a random person
in the bottom 10% income group will live in Africa increases twofold, indicating a significant deterioration of relative
living standards in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions. Africa will have the lowest per capita income
growth among developing regions.
5 EXPANDING GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
By 2030, 1.2 billion people in developing countries, or 15% of the world's population, will belong to the global
middle class, up from only 400 million or 5.9% today. Almost half of those will live in East Asia and the Pacific.
Families of four in that class earn between USD 16,000 and 68,000, as measured by purchasing power parity. This
large group will participate actively in the global marketplace, demand world-class products, and aspire to
international standards of higher education. That is, they will have the purchasing power to buy automobiles,
consumer durables, and travel abroad. 85
2. MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: The number of undernourished people
will shrink. Changing trends in diets, increased food safety concerns
Daily food consumption [kcal/person]
3,600 DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 FEWER UNDERNOURISHED
PEOPLE
3,400 EAST
MIDDLE EAST/ The number of …
ASIA
NORTH AFRICA
3,200 2 MORE CALORIES
Over the next 23 years, per
3,000 LATIN
capita food consumption will …
AMERICA
2,800

3 MORE LIVESTOCK, OIL AND
2,600 SOUTH SUGAR
ASIA The growth in per capita food …
SUB-
2,400 SAHARAN
AFRICA Under- 4 GETTING UNHEALTHY
2,200 nourished The forecasts for diet transitions
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 people [%] in many countries …
Total number of undernourished people 2007 Total number of undernourished people 2030 5 NEW THREATS TO FOOD
SAFETY
Microbiological hazards …
2007 2030
Sources: World Bank, WHO, FAO 86

MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 FEWER UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE

The number of undernourished people – those that consume less than the minimum amount of calories essential
for sound health and growth, usually defined as 2,100 calories per person per day – will go down from 710 million
people today (13.5% of the global population) to 460 million (6.9%) in 2030. A further drop to 290 million is
projected by 2050. Today, undernourishment is most acute in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 190 million or 27.9% of
the African population living in constant hunger. By 2030, this figure will have decreased dramatically, both in total
numbers (150 million) and as a share of the total population (12.4%). The highest numbers of undernourished people
can be found today in India, followed by China, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

2 MORE CALORIES
Over the next 23 years, per capita food consumption will rise from 2870 kcal/person/day to 3040 kcal/person/
day. Absolute levels and the pace of growth vary by region: In developed countries, food consumption rises only
marginally to 3520 kcal/person/day in 2030. In transitional economies, people will eat food with significantly
more calories in 2030 (3150 kcal/person/day), up by 120 calories per day. While developing countries will still be
in last place with 2960 kcal/person/day in 2030, the absolute level is on average far from critically low.
87
MALNUTRITION & HUNGER: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 MORE LIVESTOCK, OIL AND SUGAR

The growth in per capita food consumption will be accompanied by significant changes in diet composition. In the
diet of developing countries, livestock products (meat, milk, eggs), vegetable oils and, to a lesser extent, sugar,
will become more important as sources of calories. All three food groups together now provide 29% of total food
consumption of the developing countries (in terms of calories), up from 20% three decades ago. In 2030, livestock,
vegetable oils, and sugar will account for 35% of all calories. However, this is still significantly less than in industrial
countries, where the share has been around 48% for decades.
4 GETTING UNHEALTHY
The forecasts for diet transitions in many countries, especially in the developing world, are mixed. Changes

toward high-energy diets – diets high in fat (particularly saturated fat), sugar and salt, and low in unrefined
carbohydrates – will pose a threat to many people's health in the next 23 years. In combination with lifestyle
changes due mostly to rapid urbanization, the predicted changes will be beneficial in many countries with
inadequate diets. However, they will often be accompanied by a corresponding increase in diet-related chronic
non-communicable diseases.
5 NEW THREATS TO FOOD SAFETY
Microbiological hazards (e.g. salmonella) and chemical hazards (toxins, mercury, lead, food additives, pesticides,
veterinary drugs, etc.) are but two global food safety concerns, responsible for many food-borne diseases. Food
will also be at increased risk from three sources. First, greater movement of people, live animals and food
products across borders will create risk. Second, changes in food handling and consumption (for example,
preparing food outside the home more often, increased consumption of fresh and minimally processed foods, and
greater consumption of fish, seafood, meat and poultry) will pose threats. Finally, food will be at risk due to the
emergence of new or antibiotic-resistant pathogens.
88
3. EMPLOYMENT: Despite more jobs, the # of unemployed will rise fast with per-
sistent underemployment but rising female employment and less child labor
Number of people
employed 1 RISING UNEMPLOYMENT
Since the population will
continue to grow fast over …
2 PERSISTENT
UNDEREMPLOYMENT
Another problem which will …

3 LESS CHILD LABOR
Since 2000, child labor has
gone down worldwide for …
According to the ILO, the
employment gap between …
Number of people
unemployed 5 HIGHER LABOR FORCE
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period LOSSES DUE TO HIV/AIDS
Since the outbreak of HIV …
2007 2030
Source: ILO, UNICEF 89

EMPLOYMENT: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 RISING UNEMPLOYMENT
Since the population will continue to grow fast over the next 23 years, providing sufficient employment will be
increasingly difficult. Experts predict both a higher number of people in the workforce and higher unemployment.
Compared with ten years ago, the global number of unemployed is higher by 34.4 million (22%), at 191.8 million
today. Almost half of the world's unemployed are young people aged 15 to 24, and young people are more than three
times as likely as adults to be out of work.
2 PERSISTENT UNDEREMPLOYMENT
Another problem which will remain prominent is underemployment. Of today's more than 2.8 billion workers,

1.4 billion don't earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the USD 2 a day poverty line. And only
14.5 million of the world's more than 500 million extreme working poor are able to rise above the USD 1 a day
poverty line. Numbers of underemployed have not changed much over the past ten years.
3 LESS CHILD LABOR
Since 2000, child labor has gone down worldwide for the first time ever. Given the fast pace (11% decrease
between 2000 and 2004), the International Labor Organization (ILO) concludes that child labor could be eliminated
in ten years. While others are more skeptical, there is consensus that child labor will continue to decline. Today,
an estimated 218 million children aged 5-17 are engaged in child labor (not counting those who work in their homes).
Some 126 million of these work in hazardous situations or conditions, such as in mines, with chemicals and pesticides
in agriculture or with dangerous machinery. Millions of girls who work as domestic servants are especially vulnerable
to exploitation and abuse. An estimated 1.2 million children are trafficked, forced into debt bondage or other forms of
slavery (5.7 million), into prostitution and pornography (1.8 million), into participating in armed conflict (0.3 million) or
other illicit activities (0.6 million). The vast majority of child laborers – 70% or more – work in agriculture.
90
EMPLOYMENT: Text behind animated chart (2/2)

According to the ILO, the employment gap between women and men has narrowed over the past decade, but
remains wide. Today, 52.2% of adult women are in employment, compared with 51.7% ten years ago. In
developed countries, the gap is 16 percentage points; in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, the gender
gap is 40 percentage points, and in Latin America and the Caribbean the difference is 30 percentage points. Women
make up approximately 40% of the world's labor force. Most experts believe the gender gap will narrow further.
However, after decades of increasing labor force participation by women, there are mixed signs today: rates are still
going up in the Middle East and North Africa, while the trend has come to a halt in regions such as South and
Southeast Asia, and has even reversed in Central and Eastern Europe, the CIS countries, East Asia, Sub-Saharan

Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.
5 HIGHER LABOR FORCE LOSSES DUE TO HIV/AIDS
Since the outbreak of HIV/AIDS, 28 million labor force participants have been lost to the epidemic. By 2015, this
number will have ballooned to 74 million, with two-thirds of the losses in Africa. In other words: 1.3% of the
global labor force has had to stop working because of HIV/AIDS so far, and this share will rise up to more than 4% in
2030. In Africa, the death toll can be very high, although the numbers vary significantly among regions and between
individual countries. Throughout the entire African continent, 2.5 million working-age people die from HIV/AIDS
every year, with this number expected to double by 2030.
91
4. INFRASTRUCTURE: To meet the rising demand for infrastructure
services, investments will increase
Annual investments
[USD bn] 1 RISING INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENTS
700 According to OECD …
Water
600 infrastructure 2 INCREASING PRESSURE ON
500 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
Over the next 23 years …
400 Energy

infrastructure 3 EASIER ACCESS TO
300 COMMUNICATION
With mobile phones …
200
4 MORE ELECTRICITY
100 Transportation
infrastructure Today, 1.6 billion people
(one-quarter of the world's …
0
0 5200710 15 20 25 2030 Year
30 35 5 PROGRESS IN WATER
ACCESS AND SANITATION
Today, there are 1.1 billion …
2007 2030
Source: OECD, World Bank 92

INFRASTRUCTURE: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 RISING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS

According to OECD estimates, USD 71 trillion will need to be invested between now and 2030 to improve basic
global infrastructure and meet future infrastructure requirements, including roads, rail, airports, electricity,
energy, communication and water systems. Nearly half of this expenditure (46%) will be invested in developing
countries, where many areas need new infrastructure. The World Bank estimates that developing countries will need
to invest about 6% of their GDP annually in infrastructure. However, current investment levels are still well below this
target, except for Asia, where investment exceeds 7% of GDP in rapidly growing countries. Water and energy
infrastructure investment demands are much higher than those for transportation, as shown in the chart.

2 INCREASING PRESSURE ON TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
Over the next 23 years, transportation systems will have to handle much higher volumes. On average,
passenger traffic will increase around the world by 1.6% each year, and freight transportation by 2.5% per
year. Transport requirements are especially high in large, fast-growing countries such as China, India, and
Russia. It is estimated that more than USD 2.828 billion needs to be invested in the world's transport
infrastructure until 2030. Additionally, there is a need for tougher safety standards for transportation systems,
since increasing numbers of people will die from road traffic accidents, especially in developing countries.
93
INFRASTRUCTURE: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 EASIER ACCESS TO COMMUNICATION

With mobile phones and cheap laptops penetrating developing countries and more information and
communication technology (ICT) inventions on the way, access to global communication networks will become
increasingly easy. Already today, 2 billion people worldwide have a mobile phone, with more than 1 million users
joining every day, especially from emerging countries. Africa will continue to be the fastest-growing market of
mobile communication for at least a few more years, growing at twice the rate of the global market. Mobile currently
outnumbers fixed line penetration by nearly five to one in Africa.
4 MORE ELECTRICITY

Today, 1.6 billion people (one-quarter of the world's population) don't have access to electricity. Almost half of
those live in South Asia, 32% in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 14% in East Asia. By 2030, many more people in these
regions will be connected, driving the global number up to 83% from 76% today. About USD 660 billion are
expected to be spent between now and 2030 to supply basic electricity services to the world's poor, while a much
higher amount will be spent to modernize existing electricity infrastructure in the rest of the world.
5 PROGRESS IN WATER ACCESS AND SANITATION
Today, there are 1.1 billion people, or 18% of the world's population, who lack access to safe drinking water.
About 2.6 billion people, or 42%, lack access to basic sanitation. By 2015, these proportions will be halved,
meeting the corresponding Millennium Development Goal, in all parts of the world except Sub-Saharan Africa. The
number of people with safe drinking water and basic sanitation is expected to rise further before 2030. Over the
past 15 years, 1.1 billion people gained access to safe drinking water. The area with the greatest access gains
was in South Asia, where water access increased from 71% in 1990 to 84% today. In Sub-Saharan Africa,
access grew much more slowly, from 49% fifteen years ago to 58% today.
94
5. DEVELOPMENT AID: More money will be spent on aiding development with
help from celebrities and increased remittances but aid increasingly politicized
Official Development Aid
[% of GDP] 1 MORE OFFICIAL MONEY
0,8 FOR DEVELOPMENT
0,7
0,6 2 INCREASE IN NON-
GOVERNMENT AID
0,5 Global data and projections …
0,4

3 MORE CELEBRITIES
0,3 HELPING
Commitments by celebrities …
0,2
0,1 4 REPOLITICIZATION OF AID
In the "golden era" between
0,0 the end of the Cold War …
20052007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year
2035
5 MORE REMITTANCES
Remittances, or money sent
back home, will grow rapidly …
2007 2030
Sources: World Bank, United Nations 95

DEVELOPMENT AID: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE OFFICIAL MONEY FOR DEVELOPMENT

Over the next 23 years, more government money will be spent to aid development in poorer countries. Set as
one of the millennium goals, official development aid (ODA) should reach 0.7% of GDP by 2015. However, the
current level of USD 104 billion (0.3% of global GDP), is still far away from that target. If the rise of ODA continues
increasing at the current pace of 0.017 percentage points per year, the UN target of 0.7% of GDP will be
reached by the year 2030. Today, the US is the largest contributor in absolute terms (USD 16 billion), and the
smallest contributor in relative terms (0.14% of GDP). Norway tops the list of relative contributions with 0.92% of
GDP. Over the next five years, the share of European ODA will rise to about two-thirds of total ODA, up from
54% today, while the share of the US will go down to below 20%. In addition, developing nations from the Persian

Gulf are increasingly generous.
2 INCREASE IN NON-GOVERNMENT AID
Global data and projections regarding non-governmental development aid is difficult to find. It is estimated, however,
that help from foundations, private voluntary organizations, corporations, universities, religious groups and
individuals giving directly to needy people abroad will account for an even larger share of all development aid in
2030. This is also true in monetary terms: Already today, non-governmental development aid is higher than official
development aid (ODA) in many countries. In the US, for example, private aid outstrips government aid by 3 to 1.
96
DEVELOPMENT AID: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 MORE CELEBRITIES HELPING

Commitments by celebrities like Bill Clinton, Bono, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffet have dramatically raised aid
funding from unconventional sources and awareness. They help fight hunger, disease and illiteracy, for example.
In the future, such highly visible and professionally run initiatives will grow in importance. While often linked with
existing government or NGO programs, celebrity-sponsored aid partnerships are almost always global-level
initiatives. Their goals are set at the global level, complementing country-focused aid from other players.
4 REPOLITICIZATION OF AID
In the "golden era" between the end of the Cold War and the start of the so-called war on terror, development aid

was primarily aimed to provide help for the poorest. In the next 23 years, development aid will again be
increasingly seen as a foreign policy tool. New players pursuing political interests have started to enter the
development aid scene: China, India, Russia and smaller countries such as Slovenia and Thailand are all taking
steps to establish their own aid agencies and aid systems. Multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and IMF
will be the most obvious victims of repoliticization: major donors will withdraw support and resources in favor of
their own programs. Bilateral aid, less carefully targeted at the poor and less focused on sound policy and
institutions, will grow in importance.
5 MORE REMITTANCES
Remittances, or money sent back home, will grow rapidly over the next 23 years. The major reasons include rising
migration and a dramatic fall in the cost of wiring money home. By 2030, remittances are expected to reach
over USD 250 billion, more than 150% compared with today, and exceeding official aid by far. Remittances are
likely to compete increasingly with official aid, since they are fast growing, stable and generally well targeted and
delivered.
97
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – DEVELOPMENT
& POVERTY: Survey results and opinion editorials
Most important trends between now Prince Haakon of Norway
and 2030 Global Dignity
Himanen, Pekka
A New Oration on Dignity
Kremer, Michael

Future Trends in Aid
Meyer, Paul
Only Five Computers
Area in which Young Global Leaders would Zittrain, Jonathan
like to spend a large amount of money Future Mapping Commentary
Weak signals
98
FOR FURTHER READING – DEVELOPMENT & POVERTY:
Key sources, indicators, and actors

> World Bank: Global > Per capita income (USD, % of > World Bank
Economic Prospects 2007 developed countries)
> World Health Organization,
> FAO: World Agriculture – > People living on less than WHO
Towards 2015/2030 USD 1 per day (number, % of
> Food and Agriculture

total population)
> ILO: Global Employment Organization of the UN, FAO
Trends > Daily food consumption
(kcal per person) > International Labor
> World Bank: The Changing Organization, ILO
Aid Architecture > Undernourishment
(number, %) > Unicef
> OECD: Infrastructure to 2030
– Telecom, Land Transport, > (Un)employment (number, %)
Water and Electricity
> Official Development Aid
(% of GDP)
99
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
100
OVERVIEW: Key trends in global governance & security
1. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: International institutions will face increasing

legitimacy and enforcement problems. Rise of regional agreements, e-governance
2. ARMED CONFLICTS: More intra-state conflicts will occur. Shifting military powers,
more mercenaries and "intelligent" warfare
3. SECURITY: Non-military threats will rise with higher costs for security and

insurance. Increasingly sophisticated international terrorism
4. HUMAN RIGHTS: Fewer human rights abuses will take place globally. Intensified
efforts to reduce violence against women
5. CIVIL SOCIETY: Non-profit and non-governmental organizations will gain in
influence. New generation of philanthropy, growing international integration
101
1. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Institutions will face increasing legitimacy
and enforcement problems. Rise of regional agreements, e-governance
Regionalism 1 TOWARD REGIONALISM

While many international
problems will continue to …
2 INCREASING LEGITIMACY
PROBLEMS

3 GREATER CHALLENGES
TO EFFICIENCY
International institutions like …
4 NEW TOPICS AND
CHANGING RELEVANCE
International institutions will …
Legitimacy
problems 5 MORE E-GOVERNANCE
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period
Like national and regional
institutions, international …
2007 2030
Sources: United Nations, World Bank, IMF 102

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 TOWARD REGIONALISM
While many international problems will continue to be addressed on an international level, there is a trend toward
more regionalism. Political institutions, free trade areas and development agencies are all expected to grow and
deepen primarily on a regional level. Sometimes meant as a way to counterbalance existing international
institutions and multilateral approaches, these regional bodies also often complement international institutions
based on the idea of subsidiarity. However, regional cooperation will increasingly challenge the power and
legitimacy of international institutions. New regional cooperation explicitly meant as a better alternative to
international institutions will be found most prominently in South America.

2 INCREASING LEGITIMACY PROBLEMS
Over the next 23 years, international institutions such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International
Monetary Fund will face increasing legitimacy problems. More and more states will criticize them as being too
Western-biased and not representative – especially when looking at the UN Security Council and keeping in mind
that global power is shifting toward the east. States will also want to restrict the influence of these institutions by
holding back their financial and manpower contributions. A related problem, especially for the UN, is program
failures and a lack of enforcement, the latter often the reason for the former. Many experts predict that the overall
influence of international organizations will shrink between now and 2030.
103
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 GREATER CHALLENGES TO EFFICIENCY

International institutions like the UN will find it increasingly challenging to operate efficiently. Mandates will
become ever more complex, while available resources will be increasingly scarce. Over the past ten years, for
example, financial resources have only doubled, while the number of civilians and soldiers deployed on peacekeeping
missions has risen more than fourfold. There is also a large number of new humanitarian and human rights
operations. Plans to reform today's structures and systems exist and are expected to change the way the UN
recruits and retains staff, procures goods, sources services and manages funds in pursuit of efficiency and results.
Nevertheless, this process will take time, and efficiency is expected to remain an issue as we head toward 2030.
4 NEW TOPICS AND CHANGING RELEVANCE

International institutions will have new topics on their agendas in the next 23 years, or the relevance of topics will
change. Current topics that will increasingly dominate discussion include global warming and other environmental
changes, global pandemics and security issues. Water and migration are expected to be placed higher on the
agenda. Furthermore, issues related to demographic change will become more prominent. All of those are global
problems that cannot be solved unilaterally or bilaterally. Most issues will be increasingly addressed in close
cooperation with non-governmental actors.
5 MORE E-GOVERNANCE
Like national and regional institutions, international institutions will increasingly use and be affected by information
technology. Electronic channels will be used to exchange information and services with governments, NGOs,
other programs partners and people affected by the activities of international institutions. E-governance will also be
increasingly used to re-engage people with the political process and have them participate in a variety of ways
104
2. ARMED CONFLICTS: More intra-state conflicts will occur. Shifting
military powers, more mercenaries and "intelligent" warfare
Largest military spender
1 RISING MILITARY SPENDING
[rank]
Between today and 2030,
global defence spending …
1. US
2 TOWARDS INTRA-STATE
CONFLICTS
2. CHINA While the number of wars …
3 INCREASING ARMS TRADE

3. RUSSIA As military expenditure rises,
so will the trade …
4. 4 MORE PRIVATE SOLDIERS

INDIA
In the years to 2030, private
military companies …
5. JAPAN UK 5 INCREASINGLY
"INTELLIGENT" WARFARE
Between today and 2030, …
2007 2030
Sources: SIPRI, NIC, future think tanks, US Department of Defense 105

ARMED CONFLICTS: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 RISING MILITARY SPENDING

Between today and 2030, global defence spending will increase significantly. Today, world military expenditure is
USD 1.1 trillion, up one third (34%) compared with ten years ago. If the current pace continues, military spending
will almost double between today and 2030. Even in 2030, the US will have the largest military budget, currently
USD 529 billion or 48% of the total military expenditure. However, China (current share: 5.6%) and India (2.1%) will
move up the list and will increase their military powers, with China the second largest spender by 2030,
overtaking Russia, and India moving up from its current rank 8 to 4. China’s military budget is expected to reach
around USD 250 billion by 2030, or half of the current US military budget.
2 TOWARDS INTRA-STATE CONFLICTS

While the number of wars between two or more countries is expected to fall further between today and 2030,
there is likely to be an increasing number of intra-state conflicts (civil wars) and armed conflicts between state
militaries and non-state actors, particularly terrorists. In the years to 2030, intra-state conflicts will also have larger
consequences for international security, and create more internal displacements, refugees and humanitarian
emergencies. Inter-state conflicts, on the other hand, will increasingly be over the rights to natural resources,
especially water, and be more lethal due to the availability of more destructive technologies.
3 INCREASING ARMS TRADE
As military expenditure rises, so will the trade of arms and weapons. Today, the US and Russia are the largest
arms suppliers, each accounting for about 30% of global shipments, while deliveries from EU members made up
another 20%. This breakdown is expected to remain relatively stable in the future. However, the largest current
arms importers in the world, China and India, could possibly turn into significant exporters during the next two
decades. Amongst the top ten importers of arms globally are also five Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi
Arabia, which – with the support of the US – will import significantly more arms in the two decades to come.
106
ARMED CONFLICTS: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 MORE PRIVATE SOLDIERS

In the years to 2030, private military companies (PMCs) and mercenary soldiers will increasingly support and even
replace traditional armies. While today, the UN still disapproves of PMCs, these for-profit companies will in many
cases turn out to be cheaper than paying for traditional army personnel. Besides providing soldiers, private military
companies will also increasingly help with war logistics, force protection, military training, and other security and war-
related services. After extensive use of private soldiers during the presidency of George W. Bush, PMCs have
become an over USD 100 billion a year industry, with high growth rates expected for the next 23 years.
5 INCREASINGLY "INTELLIGENT" WARFARE

Between today and 2030, warfare will get more "intelligent", thus fundamentally changing the way of fighting.
Technical advances will allow, for example, for smart weapons reducing wholesale destruction, more precision-
guided munitions, and robotic combatants. Censors and biological enhancements implanted in the human body
will help dealing with biological warfare, enhance visibility, increase the strength of the soldier, etc. Future wars will be
increasingly about manipulating, protecting and exploiting information, with cyberwar becoming a reality. A
growing range of actors, including terrorists, will acquire capabilities to conduct cyber attacks against the nodes of the
world’s information infrastructure, including the Internet, telecommunication networks, and computer systems that
control critical industrial processes.
107
3. SECURITY: Non-military threats will rise with higher costs for security
and insurance. Increasingly sophisticated international terrorism
Security costs 1 INCREASE IN NON-MILITARY

SECURITY THREATS
While the number of armed …
2 HIGHER COST FOR
SECURITY AND INSURANCE
Governments, private …

3 NEW THREATS FROM
GLOBAL TERRORISM
Over the next 23 years …
4 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION
Weapons of mass destruction …
Security
threats 5 TOUGHER SECURITY
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period MEASURES
Most governments will take …
2007 2030
Source: SIPRI, NIC, UK Ministry of Defense 108

SECURITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 INCREASE IN NON-MILITARY SECURITY THREATS

While the number of armed conflicts between states will continue to decline, security threats and violence will
increasingly be of a non-military nature. Between today and 2030, a long list of very different items will be at the
center of security concerns: terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, civil wars, ethnic conflicts,
new forms of nationalism, attacks on information technology and "risk technologies" (e.g. nuclear, genetic
engineering, bio-tech), organized crime (e.g. narcotics, arms, human trafficking), resource conflicts (e.g. water,
energy), pandemics (e.g. avian flu, Ebola), mass migrations, and not least environmental dangers (e.g. climate
change, pollution). Experts predict that the threat of most of these will rise.

2 HIGHER COST FOR SECURITY AND INSURANCE
Governments, private individuals and corporations alike will have to pay more for security, including for
protecting and insuring property, operations and people. Especially following 9/11, security is high on the agenda in
Western countries. Calculations show that even though spending on security remains relatively low compared to
defense budgets, higher transaction costs in global trade and tourism threaten to push down productivity and
increase costs significantly. From an insurance perspective, threats such as natural disasters – predicted to occur
with higher frequency and intensity in the next 23 years – are a major concern and cost factor. The number of cases
in which the private insurance market alone cannot handle risks is expected to rise with the increase of large
scale damage.
109
SECURITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NEW THREATS FROM GLOBAL TERRORISM

Over the next 23 years, international terrorism is expected to significantly worsen, continuing the trend which
started during the 1990s. Last year, 4,981 incidents with 9,175 fatalities were attributed to terrorism. Despite
international efforts and some successes in fighting terrorism, more terrorist attacks are expected to occur.
Terrorist groups have increasingly sophisticated technology, communications and financing, more decentralized
organization, and a rising number of individuals (micro-actors) that are spread around the world and prepared to
act. Given these factors, it is feared that terrorists will gain possession of weapons of mass destruction within the
next 23 years.
4 PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

Weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological weapons, will be at
increased risk for proliferation before 2030. Eight countries have openly declared their nuclear WMD and are
known to have tested them (China, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, US, UK and North Korea). Iran is expected to
develop nuclear weapons in the absence of external intervention. Open sources indicate that India, Pakistan, Israel,
Libya and Syria could have biological weapons by 2015. New electromagnetic pulse weapons and carcinogenic
chemical weapons are likely to become new WMDs before 2030. Since non-governmental actors are expected to
acquire WMD in the near future, it will be increasingly difficult to control them.
5 TOUGHER SECURITY MEASURES
Most governments will take new actions to react to rising security risks as we head toward 2030. Among them will
most likely be better border security, increased activity of intelligence units, protection of critical infrastructure, and
new capacities for emergency situations and management. In addition, security laws restricting personal freedom,
as adopted in the years following 9/11, are likely to become even tighter in the next 23 years. Cooperation between
national ministries, agencies, secret services, police and military will intensify significantly.
110
4. HUMAN RIGHTS: Fewer human rights abuses will take place globally.
Intensified efforts to reduce violence against women
Human rights abuses 1 FEWER HUMAN RIGHTS
ABUSES
The global number of human …
2 MORE PROSECUTION OF
HUMAN RIGHTS CRIMES
A growing percentage of …
3 MORE COUNTRIES TO

ABOLISH DEATH PENALTY
Over the next 23 years, more …
4 INCREASING EFFORTS
TO REDUCE VIOLENCE
AGAINST WOMEN
International organizations, …
Prosecution of
human rights crimes 5 NEW CHALLENGES FROM
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period TERRORISM
2007 2030
Sources: United Nations, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch 111

HUMAN RIGHTS: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 FEWER HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES

The global number of human rights abuses is expected to keep falling over the next 23 years, although not
everywhere. In the years after the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was adopted in 1948, the world has
witnessed impressive progress in human rights standards. However, 35% of the world's people still live in
countries that deny basic rights and civil liberties, such as free speech, religious freedom, a free press, fair trials,
democratic political processes, etc. Countries in which human rights abuses occur frequently and systematically, and
where many experts predict few positive changes, include Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, Myanmar, Turkmenistan,
Sudan, and Zimbabwe.

2 MORE PROSECUTION OF HUMAN RIGHTS CRIMES
A growing percentage of human rights crimes will be prosecuted in the next 23 years. The International Criminal
Court (ICC) and other bodies, including ad hoc international tribunals, will investigate more situations of human
rights crimes and prosecute the offenders. Higher numbers of human rights abuse reports will be made public,
thanks to efforts by the new Human Rights Council, other international institutions, NGOs and a fast rising number
of national human rights institutions, especially in developing countries. This increased awareness will pressure the
relevant bodies to take action. More governments will be willing to bring even heads of state to justice for their
crimes. Nevertheless, the proportion of human rights crimes that are prosecuted and punished will remain relatively
small.
112
HUMAN RIGHTS: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 MORE COUNTRIES TO ABOLISH DEATH PENALTY

Over the next 23 years, more countries are expected to abolish the death penalty. Already today, two-thirds of all
countries, or 130 states, have abolished the death penalty in law or practice. Over 50 countries have abolished
the death penalty for all crimes since 1990. Once abolished, the death penalty is seldom reintroduced. In 2006, 1,591
people were executed in 25 countries and 3,861 people were sentenced to death in 55 countries, significantly fewer
than in preceding years. Many countries have ratified several international treaties in which they simultaneously
commit to not having the death penalty; hence, the number of countries with the death penalty (69 today) is
expected to shrink further.
4 INCREASING EFFORTS TO REDUCE VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN

International organizations, national governments, and civil society will significantly intensify and better coordinate
efforts to reduce violence against women in the next 23 years. While 185 states have ratified the Convention on
the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, 62 have placed reservations on clauses, and 10 have
not signed or ratified it. Today, for example, every third women still suffers domestic violence, and far more than
one million women and girls are trafficked every year. There is no consensus as to whether the total number of
incidents of violence against women will go down.
5 NEW CHALLENGES FROM TERRORISM
Over the next 23 years, there will be a number of new challenges to human rights. Those most likely to dominate in
the years to come are the dual threat of terrorism and the abuse of human rights in counterterrorism efforts. The
campaign against terrorism has already led to human rights violations in many countries worldwide: in 2006, 102
countries reported cases of torture and abuse by security forces, police and other state authorities. In the years to
come, it is expected that the fight against terrorism will lead to more situations in which governments enact new
security laws that violate basic rights and freedoms, and that deny terrorist suspects due process and the
protection of law. 113
5. CIVIL SOCIETY: Non-profit and non-governmental organizations will gain in
influence. New generation of philanthropy, growing international integration
Number of civil society
organizations 1 MORE VOLUNTARY
ENGAGEMENT
2 PROFESSIONALIZATION OF
CIVIL SOCIETY MOVEMENTS
Non-profit and non- …

3 NEW GENERATION OF
GIVERS
A new generation of givers …
4 GROWING INTERNATIONAL
INTEGRATION
Civil society activities, …
Influence on
global agenda 5 GREATER INFLUENCE ON
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period GLOBAL AGENDA
Civil society will not merely …
2007 2030
Sources: United Nations, John Hopkins Comparative Nonprofit Sector Project, LSE Center for Civil Society 114
CIVIL SOCIETY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE VOLUNTARY ENGAGEMENT

Over the next 23 years, volunteering in NGOs, social and sports clubs, charities, environmental groups, religious
organizations, health organizations, etc., is expected to rise fast. According to studies covering 26 countries, the
non-profit sector is already a major economic force in the world, with more than USD 1.2 trillion in expenditures,
and the equivalent of 31 million full-time workers. Of those workers, 19.7 million of them are paid; the remaining
11.3 million are volunteers. Civil society budgets and employment in civil society organizations will continue to expand
rapidly. In the US, for example, employment in this sector has grown by an annual 3.1% over the past 23 years,
significantly faster than in the for-profit world (2.0%) and in government (1.3%). Similar growth rates are expected for
the future, and in other regions of the world as well.

2 PROFESSIONALIZATION OF CIVIL SOCIETY MOVEMENTS
Non-profit and non-governmental organizations will become more professionally organized and managed over
the next 23 years. Fundraising, for example, is already being managed very professionally in larger NGOs in
developed countries, with smaller ones and many of those based in the developing world following suit over the next
two decades. Civil society activity planning will be increasingly strategic, with the use of strategic tools already
common in the business world, laying out detailed plans for activities. More emphasis will be placed on
accountability. Civil society organizations will also offer more transparency regarding NGO decisions and actions,
and social impact assessments.
115
CIVIL SOCIETY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NEW GENERATION OF GIVERS

A new generation of givers is emerging and will increasingly influence civil society activities. Donations from
people like Bill Gates and George Soros, for example, and from corporations that are increasingly engaged in civil
society activities, will comprise a growing share of non-profit revenue, currently dominated by fees and public sector
spending. The new generation of givers has sweeping international agendas. They will increasingly tackle giant
issues, from remaking a country's education sector to curing cancer, and they will also increasingly demand
results. Recipients of aid will increasingly be required to meet milestone goals and to produce measurable results,
or risk losing their funding. The level of personal involvement of the new generation of donors will rise.
4 GROWING INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATION

Civil society activities, already present in virtually every part of the world, will be increasingly connected across
borders and will perform many more globally coordinated actions as we approach 2030. Civil society
organizations will increasingly use global means of communication – primarily the Internet – to coordinate
thoughts, expertise, and actions. A number of new and globally acting civil society organizations are expected to
be founded between now and 2030.
5 GREATER INFLUENCE ON GLOBAL AGENDA
Civil society will not merely grow in terms of numbers, but it will also become more influential over the next
23 years. As governments in many states increasingly transfer political power back to society, and civil society
organizations cooperate more closely with political decision-making bodies, both will increase their influence on
decisions. Moreover, further professionalization and interconnectedness of civil society actors will help to increase
their say in the global agenda. On average, two-thirds of all non-profit paid employment are concentrated in the three
traditional welfare services, namely education, health and social services, with this focus to remain relatively
constant until 2030.
116
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – GLOBAL
GOVERNANCE & SECURITY: Survey results and opinion editorials
Fernandez, Tony
Quo Vadis, ASEAN?
Krings, Frank
Trend, Transition or Tremolo?
Shifts in relative power between now Mumenthaler, Christian

and 2030 Understanding Interconnections of Global Challenges
Stephens, Bret
Is Freedom Predictable?
van Oranje, Mabel
Division of power in 2030
Human rights in 2030
Statements about the future
Weak signals
117
FOR FURTHER READING – GLOBAL GOVERNANCE & SECURITY:
Key sources, indicators, and actors
> WEF: Global Risks 2007 > Members in international > United Nations
> NIC: Mapping the Global organizations / signers of
treaties (number, % of > World Bank
Future
> DCDC: Global Strategic countries worldwide) > International Monetary Fund,
Trends > Expenditure on defense IMF

> SIPRI: Yearbook 2007 (USD, % of GDP) > North Atlantic Treaty
> US DoD: Quadrennial > Arms trade (USD, countries) Organization, NATO
Defense Review Report 2006
> Human rights abuse (number, > Amnesty International
> HSRP: Human Security
Report countries) > UN Human Rights Council
> JHU: Global Civil Society At- > Non-governmental > Universal Declaration of
a-Glance organizations (number) Human Rights
> Human Rights Watch Report
2006
118
1. General trends
2. Health
3. Environment
4. Education
7. Values & society
2007 Æ 2030
119
OVERVIEW: Key trends in values & society
1. DIVERSITY: Minorities will be granted more rights. Greater equality for women,
better integration of people with disabilities
2. RELIGION: The number of adherents will rise and shift geographically with more
religious movements and radicalism gaining momentum
3. URBANIZATION: The majority of the world’s population will live in urban areas and

slums will grow. New mega-cities will emerge, especially in Asia and Africa
4. MIGRATION: The number of international migrants will rise with a shift towards
developed countries, different female migration, new policies
5. MEDIA: The Internet will increasingly dominate media services. New barriers
to free access, increasing industry consolidation, greater personalization
120
1. DIVERSITY: Minorities will be granted more rights. Greater equality
for women, better integration of people with disabilities
Minority rights 1 MORE RIGHTS FOR
MINORITIES
Minorities – defined as …
2 MOVING TOWARD GENDER
EQUALITY
The status of women is …
3 BETTER INTEGRATION OF

DISABLED PEOPLE
There will be significant …
4 MORE LIBERALIZATION
CONCERNING SEXUAL
ORIENTATION
Gender The number of countries with …
equality
5 MORE COMPANIES WITH
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period DIVERSITY MANAGEMENT
Actively managing diversity …
2007 2030
Sources: UNDP, BOND, future think tanks 121

DIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE RIGHTS FOR MINORITIES

Minorities – defined as subordinate groups in terms of nationality, religion, culture, language, gender or sexual
orientation – are expected to gain more rights by 2030. Over the past decades, many minorities have been granted
autonomy or even political independence. The number of countries granting more rights has increased
significantly over the past few years, and this trend is expected to continue. There is also progress concerning the
climate for minorities: the percentage of countries with open political competition, a climate of respect for civil
liberties and independent media is up from 34% 23 years ago to 47% today. However, there is still a long way to
go. The Netherlands is the only OECD country today where ethnic minorities are proportionally represented in the

lower house.
2 MOVING TOWARD GENDER EQUALITY

The status of women is expected to further improve over the next 23 years. According to a UN gender-related
development index which compares life expectancy, knowledge access and the standard of living of women and men,
there is a strong trend toward more gender equality. While only 1% of all countries had an index value higher than
0.8 (1.0 means full gender equality) 35 years ago, 36% of all countries have reached this level today, with 20% even
exceeding 0.9. Women are also becoming more empowered, as their political and economic participation grow.
Nevertheless, the gender gap will not be fully eradicated by 2030, with the widest differences found in developing
countries.
122
DIVERSITY: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 BETTER INTEGRATION OF DISABLED PEOPLE

There will be significant progress in the next 23 years regarding the situation of disabled people. The adoption of
the UN Convention on the Rights and Dignity of Persons with Disabilities in 2006 – the first human rights treaty of the
21st century – paves the way. Progress will be due to better technical support, more recognition by non-disabled
people and the need for highly skilled disabled people in the workforce. The extent and pace of progress in the
integration of disabled people, however, depends much on what is done in developing countries, since the majority
of today's 650 million disabled people live there.
4 MORE LIBERALIZATION CONCERNING SEXUAL ORIENTATION

The number of countries with liberal legislation concerning sexual orientation will increase. In the past 15 years,
same-sex marriage has been allowed in six countries and legislation concerning homosexuality has been
liberalized in several countries, e.g. in Russia. But although the general trend is toward more liberalization, there are
some countries, for example Nigeria and Zimbabwe, which have recently tightened laws or are considering
doing so. In addition, the social climate regarding homosexuality often lags behind legislation. These factors will
slow down liberalization, but won't stop its progress.
5 MORE COMPANIES WITH DIVERSITY MANAGEMENT

Actively managing diversity will become standard in more companies over the next 23 years. While today, only big
multinational players make systematic use of the diversity of their employees, diversity management will have
become standard in smaller companies as well by 2030. Knowledge from different cultural backgrounds, for
example, is used to adapt products and services to different countries' needs as well as to develop new products in
mixed teams. In the developed world, diversity among employees will also be boosted by the lack of highly skilled
workers available at home.
123
2. RELIGION: The number of adherents will rise and shift geographically
with more religious movements and radicalism gaining momentum
Adherents
[million] 1 MORE ADHERENTS
Over the next 23 years, the
3000 number of religious adherents ...
Christians
2500 2 ISLAM FASTEST-GROWING
Of all the world religions, Islam
2000 Muslims will grow fastest between …

3 REGIONAL SHIFTS
1500
Since ever more people will join
Hindus a religious faith or convert …
1000
4 DEEPENING RELIGIOUS
500 Buddhists COMMITMENT
Jews Over the next 23 years …
0
0 2007
5 10 15 20 25 2030 Year
30 35 5 MORE ACTIVISM AND
RADICALISM
In the next 23 years, more ..
2007 2030
Sources: Religion facts, World Christian Trends 124

RELIGION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE ADHERENTS
Over the next 23 years, the number of religious adherents will rise by 1.4 billion people, or over five percentage
points faster than the global population. While today, 5.5 billion out of the world's 6.5 billion (85.8%) follow a
religion, there will be 6.9 billion or 88.1% adherents of any of the world religions in 2030. Three religions will
have more than one billion followers in 2030: Christians will account for 2.78 billion, or about one-third. 1.98 billion
people or about one-fourth will follow Islam. Hindus will constitute the third-largest group of religious followers with
1.12 billion adherents in 2030, or one-eighth of all people. About one billion people will be either nonreligious or
atheists, up only marginally from today.

2 ISLAM FASTEST-GROWING
Of all the world religions, Islam will grow fastest between today and 2030. Today, there are 1.32 billion Muslims
in the world, or one in five people (20.4%). By 2030, the number will have increased by 660,000 to 1.98 billion. In
other words: About every fourth person (23.4%) will follow Islam 23 years from now. Some sources – many of them
Muslim – predict future percentages closer to 30%, which would have Islam surpass Christianity as the most
populous faith community worldwide by 2030. Over fifty countries have Muslim-majority populations, and Arabs
account for only around 20% of all Muslims worldwide. As today, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Iran, and
Turkey will have the most Muslims in 2030, the first four having more than 100 million adherents each by 2030.
125
RELIGION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 REGIONAL SHIFTS
Since ever more people will join a religious faith or convert from one faith to another, religions will also move
geographically. For example, Christianity, Buddhism, and other religions are spreading in countries such as
China as Marxism declines, and the proportion of evangelical converts in traditionally Catholic Latin America
will rise, too. By 2030, China and Nigeria will have some of the largest Christian communities in the world, a
shift that will reshape the traditionally Western-based Christian institutions, giving them more of an African, Asian or
developing world face.
4 DEEPENING RELIGIOUS COMMITMENT
Over the next 23 years, religious identity is likely to become an increasingly important factor in how people

define themselves. Especially among migrants, but also among other groups, religion provides followers with a
community and social safety net in times of need. Western Europe, however, stands apart from this growing
global religiosity, except for migrant communities from Africa and the Middle East. Many of the church's
traditional functions – education, social services, etc. – will continue to be performed by the state.
5 MORE ACTIVISM AND RADICALISM
In the next 23 years, more religious adherents, across all religions, will become 'activists'. Their worldview
typically advocates a change of society. They also have a tendency to make sharp distinctions between good and
evil, and a religious belief system that connects local conflicts to a larger struggle. More social and political
turmoil, some of it violent, is expected. In particular, there is likely to be friction in mixed communities as activists
attempt to gain converts from other religious groups. Most of the religions that will see more activism also have a
disproportionate number of young people, which experts have correlated with high numbers of radical
adherents, including Muslim extremists. The largest impact on society and politics is expected to come
from radical Islam.
126
3. URBANIZATION: The majority of the world’s population will live in urban areas
and slums will grow. New mega-cities will emerge, especially in Asia and Africa
Urban population growth
[% p.a.] 1 MORE URBAN DWELLERS
1,8 Between now and 2030, both
AFRICA the number and percentage …
1,7
2 AFRICA AND ASIA
1,6 CATCHING UP
ASIA
1,5 In the next 23 years …
1,4 OCEANIA

NORTH AMERICA 3 MEGACITIES
LATIN AMERICA
1,3 By 2030, the number of mega-
cities (more than 10 million …
1,2
EUROPE 4 GROWING SLUMS
1,1
Share of urban Today, about one billion
1,0 people live in slums, with …
population [%]
01
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 5 BIGGER CHALLENGES
Bubble size = Urban population 2007 Bubble size = Urban population 2030
Fast urban growth can be
both beneficial and …
2007 2030
Sources: United Nations, World Bank, UN Habitat 127

URBANIZATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 MORE URBAN DWELLERS

Between now and 2030, both the number and percentage of people living in cities will increase dramatically,
from 3.2 billion to 4.9 billion, or from 50.0% to 60.1% of the total population. 1.6 out of those 1.7 billion new urban
citizens will move into or be born in cities that are located in developing countries, making the urban population in
developing countries nearly four times as large as that in developed regions by 2030. The level of urbanization,
however, will be still much higher in the developed world: In 2030, 81% of all people in developed countries will
live in cities (up from 74% today). In developing countries, the urbanization rate averages only 56% in 2030 (up from
43% today).

2 AFRICA AND ASIA CATCHING UP
In the next 23 years, urbanization rates in Africa and Asia will rise about four times faster than in Europe and the
Americas. Today, Africa and Asia are the least urbanized areas in the world (38% and 40% respectively). A large
starting population, plus a high and steady growth rate, will result in almost 1.5 billion more people living in Asian
and African cities in 2030. By then, almost 7 out of every 10 urban residents in the world will be living in Africa or
Asia. Urbanization levels will rise to 51% in Africa and 54% in Asia.
128
URBANIZATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 NEW MEGACITIES
By 2030, the number of mega-cities (more than 10 million inhabitants) will have increased to 30, up from 22
today. All but five of the world's mega-cities will be in the developing world, with almost two-thirds in Asia alone.
These cities are so huge that they will continue to change the dynamics of urbanization: People commute to work
from densely populated outlying villages or suburbs, and city centers stagnate as the economic base shifts
outwards to peri-urban areas. The largest cities in 2030 will be Tokyo (38.7 million), Delhi (37.7 million), Lagos
(33.1 million), Mumbai (32.4 million), and Dhaka (32.3 million), with Lagos, Dhaka, Karachi, Jakarta, Guangzhou,
and Delhi growing fastest. Cities with half a million inhabitants will grow even faster.
4 GROWING SLUMS

Today, about one billion people live in slums, with this number expected to rise to at least 1.7 billion by 2030.
Slum growth is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, with more than 70% of the urban population living in slums in some
African cities. While one out of every two new urban dwellers in Sub-Saharan Africa, South and West Asia will be
living in slums, the relative share of slum population is expected to decline in the rest of the world. In 2030, most
slums will still lack adequate access to clean water, sanitation, and health care. Poverty, crime, drug addiction,
alcoholism, suicide and disease, along with many other problems associated with slums, will continue to challenge
urban life.
5 BIGGER CHALLENGES
Fast urban growth can be both beneficial and problematic for cities. Providing employment, housing, and
education facilities, as well as water, electricity, transport, and communication infrastructure will be
increasingly challenging. Many cities lack personnel and financial resources for developing the infrastructure, not only
to keep pace with the fast-growing population, but also to make urban development sustainable. There is no
consensus as to which are the biggest challenges for all cities in the next 23 years. Fighting crime and providing
security will certainly be high on the list for many of them. 129
4. MIGRATION: The number of international migrants will rise with a shift
towards developed countries, different female migration, new policies
Net migration
[in 1,000] 1 RISING NUMBER OF
MIGRANTS
1.800 The total number of …
2 FURTHER CONCENTRATION
1.300 NORTH AMERICA
Over the next 23 years, the flow
800 EUROPE of migrants will become …

300 3 INTO DEVELOPED
OCEANIA COUNTRIES
-200 Migrants will increasingly …
AFRICA
-700 LATIN AMERICA 4 MORE WOMEN MIGRATING
ALONE
-1.200 ASIA
In the past, female migration …
-1.700 5 MORE MIGRATION
MANAGEMENT
The policy question is no …
2007 2030
Sources: UN, World Bank, UNHCR 130

MIGRATION: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 RISING NUMBER OF MIGRANTS

The total number of international migrants – people that permanently cross borders, be it for work, studies, refuge
or asylum, or to follow family members – will rise significantly between now and 2030. Today, there are 191
million migrants worldwide, up 75% from 109 million 23 years ago. If the current pace of an annual 2.7% increase
continues, there will be about 352 million migrants in 2030. International migrants comprise 3.0% of the global
population today, up from 2.3% in 1985. In addition to international migrants, there are 24.5 million internally
displaced persons (IDPs) in at least 52 countries as a result of conflict, with this number also on the rise.
2 FURTHER CONCENTRATION

Over the next 23 years, the flow of migrants will become increasingly concentrated. Already today, three-quarters
of all international migrants are concentrated in just 28 countries. Between 1990 and today, only 17 countries
accounted for more than 75% of the increase in migrants, with the US gaining 15 million migrants, and Germany
and Spain over 4 million each. By contrast, the number of international migrants decreased in 72 countries. The US
is by far the most frequent destination, hosting 20% of all migrants worldwide, followed by Russia (6.4%),
Germany (5.3%), the Ukraine (4.6%), France (3.4%), and Saudi Arabia (3.3%).
3 INTO DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Migrants will increasingly head to developed countries. Already today, 61% of all migrants live in developed
countries, up from 53% in 1990. This proportion is expected to rise further by 2030, with the share of Europe
(currently 33.6% of global migration stock) and North America (23.3%) rising. Since 1990, the number of migrants to
developing countries has increased by barely 3 million, while the remaining 33 million (92%) of all 36 million new
migrants have moved to developed countries. Nevertheless, there will be still much migration among developing
countries, but with return flows canceling out new outflows – for example, in the past 15 years, 21 million refugees
were repatriated, the large majority to developing countries. 131
MIGRATION: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
4 MORE WOMEN MIGRATING ALONE

In the past, female migration most often meant accompanying their spouses or joining them later. Today and
even more so in the future, women leave their children and families behind and move abroad to work. Women
account for 49.6% of all migrants, a figure that is expected to be relatively stable over the next 23 years. However,
in developed countries, female migrants outnumber male migrants and their share is going to rise further. Often
engaged in domestic labor and hidden within private households, these migrants are particularly vulnerable to
sexual abuse, rape, slavery-like labor conditions, and discrimination of all kinds.
5 MORE MIGRATION MANAGEMENT

The policy question is no longer whether to have migration, but rather how to manage it effectively so as to
enhance its positive and reduce its negative impacts. Over the next 23 years, most governments are expected to
become more active in handling migration, not least because net migration will likely account for all the
population growth in more developed regions between 2010 and 2030. Over the past ten years, the number of
governments wishing to reduce international migration declined from 40 to 22%. Most governments of receiving
countries will be taking steps to facilitate the inflow of the types of migrants that they need, especially skilled
migrants and temporary low-skilled workers. Governments of countries of origin will also become more proactive,
by encouraging the return of their citizens and strengthening ties with their expatriate communities abroad.
132
5. MEDIA: The Internet will increasingly dominate media services. New barriers
to free access, increasing industry consolidation, greater personalization
Internet as dominating
media channel 1 INCREASINGLY INTERNET-
DOMINATED MEDIA
Today, the Internet is but one …
2 NEW LIMITS TO MEDIA
ACCESS
While technical limits to …

3 PERSONALIZATION OF
MEDIA CONTENT
Media content will be …
4 MORE INFOTAINMENT
Demand for infotainment and
sensationalist news will …
Personalization of
media content 5 CONCENTRATION OF POWER
No quantitative forecast available for the 23-year period IN THE MEDIA SECTOR
M&A activities in the media ...
2007 2030
Sources: PwC, Horizons 2020 133

MEDIA: Text behind animated chart (1/2)
1 INCREASINGLY INTERNET-DOMINATED MEDIA

Today, the Internet is but one of many media channels, next to television, books, newspapers and journals, etc.
Over the next 23 years, however, it will become the dominating and defining channel for all media, since more
media will converge toward Internet Protocol, and analog services will be increasingly substituted by the Internet
and interactive television. The rising importance of the Internet is reflected in a forecast higher number of hours spent
on the Internet per day, and in the global figures of media expenditure: About USD 2.6 trillion, or 40% of the total
spent on global media and entertainment, will be spent on Internet services in 2030, up from only 14% today.
While global media and entertainment expenditure will roughly quadruple between today and 2030, Internet

spending will rise almost tenfold. Despite the domination of the Internet, however, print products like newspapers,
journals, and books will also grow over the next 23 years – albeit with a smaller growth rate than the Internet – and
continue to exist well beyond 2030.
2 NEW LIMITS TO MEDIA ACCESS
While technical limits to media access will vanish in the next 23 years, new barriers to access and use of global
media are expected to arise. Technically, the consolidation and upgrading of broadband mobile and WLAN
networks make Internet access available at almost every spot on earth, even in most parts of the developing world.
However, although numerous websites will be accessible, and web catalogues and intelligent search engines will
make it easier to find content, top-quality content will be restricted to subscribers and subject to increasing fees.
Moreover, since more states will permanently or temporarily restrict the use of media services, international
institutions will increasingly advocate making the "right to information" a fundamental human right.
134
MEDIA: Text behind animated chart (2/2)
3 PERSONALIZATION OF MEDIA CONTENT

Media content will be increasingly tailored to individual users or specific user groups. Since an increasing share
of media services is becoming interactive, users will be able to select content or programs and have them
packaged automatically. Interactive TV programs, personalized radio broadcasts, and especially interactive Internet
content will increase. Nevertheless, media content produced for a larger group of users will still play an important
role in 2030.
4 MORE INFOTAINMENT
Demand for infotainment and sensationalist news will grow over the next 23 years. Since people will increasingly

suffer from information overload and want to take their minds off work and everyday life, media services
combining information and entertainment are requested by the majority of people in 2030. The ability and interest in
reading comprehensive texts, consuming detailed analyses and listening to demanding TV or radio programs is
expected to fall across all regions of the world. Suppliers of infotainment are often multinational media companies
as people prefer news about international VIPs.
5 CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN THE MEDIA SECTOR
M&A activities in the media sector will continue through 2030, resulting in increasing concentration of power. A few
big international media conglomerates that operate on a growing number of continents will rule a large part of the
global media sector. On the more regional level, however, their power will be mitigated by a high number of small
media providers, publishers of special interest magazines, and small TV channels. In addition, there will be a rising
supply of personal media contributions, with people around the world increasingly using blogs, interactive
programs, and their own webpages for the distribution of media content.
135
LINKS TO YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS OPINION – VALUES & SOCIETY:
Most important events / discoveries Bharadwai, Neeraj
since 1980 Are We Underestimating the Impact of Computer …
Casey, Caroline
The Business Case of Homogeneity?
Idriss, Shamil

Whose Life in 2030?
Sorkin, Andrew
Mapping The Medium and the Message
Online social networking
Weak signals
136
FOR FURTHER READING – VALUES & SOCIETY: Key sources,
indicators, and actors

> UN: World population > Population (number, %) > United Nations Population
monitoring, focusing on Division, UNPD
international migration and > Share of rural / urban
development population (%) > United Nations Population
Fund, UNFPA
> Population density (people

> UN: World Urbanization
Prospects per square kilometer) > UN Habitat
> UN Habitat: Global Urban > Religious adherents (number, > UN High Commissioner for
Observatory %) Refugees, UNHCR
> RF: Religion Facts > Gender parity (index value)
> TNS Infratest: Horizons 2020 > Time spent using media
(hours per day)
> Internet use (hours per day)
137
C. OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERS
1. Collective Opinion:
Results of Young Global Leaders Survey
2. Individual Opinions:
Young Global Leaders Opinion Editorials
138
C. OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERs
139
Overview
A. Key issues and power shifts
B. Personal choices
C. Weak signals

140
A. Key issues and power shifts
141
1. Most important events/discoveries since 1980: The rise of the
Internet, the fall of the Berlin Wall and 9/11 terrorism
[% of all respondents]
OTHER ISSUES
Internet 29.9
> AIDS
Fall of Soviet Union/Berlin Wall 19.8 > Globalization
September 11/terrorism 13.4 > Emergence and
Communication technologies/ opening of China
8.0 and India

mobile phones
Personal Computers/IT 7.3
Biotech & genetic engineering 5.4
Global sarming 5.0
Collapse of communism 4.2
Other 7.3
Question: "Looking back, what have been the two most important events
or discoveries that have radically changed the world since 1980?"
142
2. Most important trends between now and 2030: Global warming, the
rise of emerging economies and an increasing scarcity of resources
OTHER TRENDS
Global warming/climate change 21.2
> Migration
Emerging economies 11.0 > Biotech
> Health issues
Scarcity of resources 8.7
> Religious

Globalization 6.1 tensions/
conflicts
Economic disparity 5.3
> Environment
Alternative energy 4.9 > Terrorism
Demographic shifts 4.9 > Internet
Other 15.9
Question: "What are the most important trends that will impact the world in 2030?"
143
3. Most pressing issues in 2030: Climate change, the depletion
of natural resources and asymmetric warfare
Climate change 59.2 29.6 11.3
Depletion of natural resources 36.7 39.6 20.9 2.9
Asymmetric warfare 27.3 36.0 33.8 2.9
Economic imbalance between countries/regions 25.0 32.4 39.7 2.9
Hunger & malnutrition 20.6 41.2 34.6 3.7

Communicable diseases 16.8 36.5 44.5 2.2
More religious radicalism 14.9 35.0 45.7 5.0
Armed conflict between leading nation states 14.4 20.9 54.7 10.1
Tensions between models of society/culture 12.6 24.4 50.4 12.6
Migration 11.4 27.1 50.7 10.7 99.9
Crash of one or more major financial markets 7.9 15.1 59.7 17.3 100.0
Most important Very important Important Not important
Question: "What are the most pressing issues facing the next generation of leaders that require global
solutions?" (Please categorize the issues according to their relative importance in 2030)
144
4. Implications of the trends: Comments of the Young Global Leaders
(1/3)
> "All of these issues require long-term globally coordinated responses, which the
current political/economic system does not support."
> "Change economic theory, models and the indicators we are looking at … we are
observing the wrong indicators. They are not anymore a proxy of the real trends."
> "Climate change and depletion of natural resources will force mankind to adapt

and redefine or way of living in a broad sense."
> "Climate change will enforce migration of populations facing drought/starvation."
> Global climate change is of paramount importance. The lack of action on that topic
would make any other aspect of human behavior moot."
Question: "Please comment on the implications of the relative importance assigned to the issues above."
145
Implications of the trends: Comments of the Young Global Leaders
(2/3)
> "Informal groups with high technology knowledge and earth sensitive culture
will rise against organizations with a traditional way of doing things
(e.g. web societies)."
> "Looking at global trends, we should also consider the potential implication of
a major disruption in one of them. We shouldn't simply see them as "linear" and
evolutionary."

> Neither hot war, nor cold war, nor any kind of interstate conflict will be the major
issue. The major issues will be found at the individual and community level."
> "None can pretend to solve the global issues alone, but as history already showed
several times, it might take a major crisis/war/extreme event for new institutions
that are already needed to be effectively launched."
146
Implications of the trends: Comments of the Young Global Leaders
(3/3)
> "We must also remember that beyond the extreme poverty of the more than one
billion, there is a lower-level poverty and middle class failure that should be treated
with the same urgency. Why? Because relative deprivation within societies and within
regions and the world can be more destabilizing than absolute power."
> "Tension will increase between leaders and followers (be it national, corp. or other)
as the followers will look to the leaders to 'solve' the above issues and the issues

fail."
> "Most conflict arises out of the people not having anything to loose supporting people
who have hunger for power in hopes and pursuit of promises for a life worth living."
> "The issues above are happened from each countries interest protection."
> "It is time that we put the future of our planet ahead of our own economic interests.
As a business man I can't believe I just said that."
147
5. Power to influence global trends: Nation states and multilateral
institutions remain the most important players
organizations
Global players
stakeholder-
and munici-
Major cities
institutions
Multilateral
individuals
(sorted alphabetically)
Churches/
platforms
Powerful
religious
Informal
palities
bodies
Nation
states
NGOs
Multi-
Issues
(sorted alphabetically)
Armed conflict
Asymmetric warfare
Climate change
Communicable diseases

Financial market crash
Depletion of natural resources
Economic imbalances
Hunger/malnutrition
Migration
Religious radicalism
Tensions between models
of society/culture
Most influential 2nd most influential 3rd most influential
Question: "Which of the above issues (see 2.3) can most be influenced by these agents?"
(Please indicate a maximum of 2 actors for each issue)
148
6. Shifts in relative power between now and 2030: Multinational corpora-
tions and individuals will gain power, nation states will have less power
Will LOSE power until 2030 Will GAIN power until 2030
Multinational corporations 14.3 85.7

Powerful individuals or groups of individuals 16.8 83.2
Online social communities 18.1 81.9
Multi-stakeholder-platforms 24.6 75.4

Major cities and municipalities 32.1 67.9
NGOs 39.4 60.6
Regional federations (EU, NATO, ASEAN, etc.) 42.6 57.4
Churches/religious organizations 51.1 48.9
Multilateral institutions (UN, WTO, etc.) 62.3 37.7
Informal bodies (G8) 64.2 35.8
Nation states 69.3 30.7
Question: "How will the relative power of global players evolve over the next 25 years?"
(Please indicate which of these actors will have relatively more or less power than at present)
149
7. Leading powers in 2030: East Asia, North America and Europe will
be the leading regions – Asia and South America on the rise
Regions [% of all respondents]
LESS POWER in 2030 MORE POWER in 2030
East Asia/Pacific 73.6 21.7 3.9 0.8 1.6 98.4
North America 68.2 28.7 2.3 0.8 78.4 21.6
Europe 44.2 45.0 10.9 60.9 39.1

South & Central Asia 22.5 53.5 19.4 4.7 14.2 85.8
MENA 3.9 46.5 45.7 3.9 48.0 52.0
South America 1.6 37.2 51.2 10.1 29.4 70.6
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.8 10.9 43.4 45.0 57.6 42.4
Leading Important Relevant Non-relevant
Question: "How do you see the relative power of the following regions developing during the next 25 years?"
Please indicate whether the following nations and regions will (a) gain more or less power in the next 25 years,
and (b) represent a leading power, important power, relevant power, non-relevant power in 2030
150
Among the nation states, China, the US, India and Russia are seen
as leading in 2030 – European states and the US losing power
Nation states [% of all respondents]
China 87.6 12.4 0.7 99.3
USA 73.0 20.4 4.4 2.2 77.4 22.6
India 30.7 56.2 13.1 3.6 96.4
Russia 24.1 51.1 22.6 2.2 30.4 69.6

UK 8.8 47.4 40.1 3.6 85.4 14.6
Germany 6.6 50.4 35.0 8.0 76.6 23.4
Brazil 4.4 39.7 48.5 7.4 11.9 88.1
France 3.6 31.4 46.0 19.0 89.8 10.2
Question: "How will the relative power of the following nation-states develop over the next 25 years?"
Please indicate whether the following nations will (a) gain more or less power in the next 25 years,
151
Among the regional federations, the European Union and ASEAN
will be leading – the Pan-African Union will also gain power
Regional federations [% of all respondents]
European Union 51.9 39.1 9.0 29.1 70.9
ASEAN 40.9 37.9 18.2 3.0 15.4 84.6
NAFTA 27.5 40.5 23.7 8.4 60.6 40.0

Pan-African Union 2.3 18.5 52.3 26.9 33.1 66.9
Question: "How will the relative power of the following regional federations develop over the next 25 years?"
Please indicate whether the following regional federations will (a) gain more or less power in the next 25 years,
152
8. Division of power in 2030: A multi-polar balance of power
is seen as most likely
Division of power [%]
Other
Bi-polar
Single power 7.3
5.8 1.5
Power sharing

between multi- 15.3
lateral institutions
70.1
Multi-polar
balance of power
Question: "In 2030, which of the following situations are most likely?"
153
9. Statements about the future: The world in 2030 …
NO YES
Will have more democratic societies 23.9 76.1
Will be on average more peaceful than today 53.4 46.6
Was/is involved in a major war affecting multiple countries 61.4 38.6

Will have experienced one major new pandemic 20.9 79.1
Will have experienced the use of weapons of mass
destruction (WMDs) – As a threat by non state actors 34.6 64.4
Will have experienced the use of weapons of mass
destruction (WMDs) – Used by states 79.5 20.5
Will have been able to make sufficiently critical progress
25.6 74.4
in managing climate change in a sustainable manner
Question: "The world in 2030…"

(Please indicate the appropriate answer)
154
B. Personal choices
155
1. Country in which Young Global Leaders would spend a one-year
sabbatical for professional development: the US, China, India, UK
[% of all respondents] OTHER COUNTRIES
MENTIONED
USA 32.1 > Austria > Madagascar
> Australia > Malaysia
China 28.4 > Bhutan > Russia
> Brazil > Singapore
India 7.5

> Chile > South Africa
> Denmark > Sudan
UK 6.0
> Finland > Sweden
> France > Switzerland
Japan 2.2
> Germany > Syria
> Hong Kong > Taiwan
All Europe (including UK) 14.5
> Iraq > Ukraine
> Israel > United Arab
Emirates
Question: "If you had the opportunity to do a one-year sabbatical, in which
country would you spend it, if you wanted to improve your professional experience?"
156
2. Country in which Young Global Leaders would spend a one-year sabba-
tical for personal development: India, the US, China, Italy, South Africa
OTHER COUNTRIES MENTIONED
India 16.3
> Afghanistan > Dominica > Peru
USA 11.1
> Antigua > Egypt > Russia
China 9.6 > Argentina > France > Seychelles
Italy 5.9 > Belarus > Germany > Sri Lanka
South Africa 5.2 > Bhutan > Indonesia > Sudan

UK 4.4 > Bolivia > Israel > Switzerland
Australia 3.7 > Bosnia > Kiribati > Thailand
Brazil 3.7 > Cameroon > Malaysia > Turkey
France 3.0 > Cayman > Myanmar > United Arab
Islands > Mexico Emirates
Japan 3.0
> Costa Rica > Nepal > Vatican City
New Zealand 3.0 State
> Czech > Oman
Spain 3.0 Republic > Palestine
Question: "If you had the opportunity to do a one-year sabbatical,
in which country would you spend it for your personal development?"
157
3. Foreign language that Young Global Leaders would recommend a 15-
year-old to learn: Chinese/Mandarin, English, Spanish and Arabic
Share of languages [% of all respondents]
Chinese/Mandarin 43.9
English 38.8
Spanish 9.4
Arabic 4.3

Russian 2.2
Japanese 0.7
Hindi 0.7
French 0.7
Question: "If you were asked by a 15-year-old friend or family member which language
(other than her/his mother tongue) s/he should learn? What would you answer?"
158
4. Organization in which Young Global Leaders would recommend a 15-year-old
to do an internship: Small high-growth company, multinational corporation
Share of organization type [% of all respondents]
32.6
Smaller high growth company 42.9
19.3
Multinational corporation 28.6
NGO 17.0
11.4

Media/communication company 12.6
8.6
Multilateral political institution 10.4
5.7
National/local political institution 3.0
0.0
Family/midcap company 0.7
0.0
All YGLs Business YGLs only
Question: "If you were asked by a 15-year-old friend or family member what type of organization s/he should
do an internship with? What would you answer?"
159
5. Country in which Young Global Leaders would invest half of their
personal financial assets: India, the US, China, Brazil
[% of all respondents] OTHER COUNTRIES
India 27.4 MENTIONED
24.3
18.5
USA 18.6 > Angola > Hong Kong
12.6
China 14.3 > Austria > Japan
8.9 > Bangladesh > Mexico
Brazil 14.3
UK 3.0 > Belarus > Norway
1.4

Germany 2.2 > Cambodia > Pakistan
1.4 > Chile > Philippines
Russia 2.2
2.9 > Costa Rica > Romania
2.2
Switzerland 2.9 > Egypt > Saudi Arabia
2.2
Vietnam 4.3 > Ethiopia > Singapore
Other 20.8
15.7 > Haiti > Sweden
All Europe 14.3 > Honduras > United Arab
10.0 Emirates
Question: "If you had to allocate half of your liquid financial capital
to invest long term (>5 years), in which country would you invest?"
160
6. Industry in which Young Global Leaders would invest half of their perso-
nal financial assets: Energy, health, IT, private equity/venture capital
[% of all respondents] OTHER ISSUES
23.8 MENTIONED
Energy
19.2
Health 13.5 > Insurance/reinsurance
12.3
11.9 > Entertainment
IT
11.0 > Mining & metals
Private equity/venture capital 10.3
11.0 > Retail & consumer goods
7.9

Banking/capital markets 5.5 > Automotive
Real estate 6.4 > Construction
5.5
4.8 > Aviation, travel & tourism
Food & beverages 6.8 > Holding, trade,
Telecommunications 4.8
2.7 import/export
Logistics & transportation 4.0
4.1
Professional services 2.4
1.4
to invest long term (>5 years), in which industry would you invest?"
161
7. Global issue to which Young Global Leaders would allocate half of personal financial
assets: Climate change, hunger & malnutrition, depletion of natural resources
[% of all respondents] OTHER ISSUES

MENTIONED
38.6
Climate change > Religious radicalism
43.5
15.2 > Crash of major financial
Hunger & malnutrition
11.6 market
> Armed conflict between
12.9
Depletion of resources leading

13.0 nation states
8.3 > Migration
Economic imbalance
5.8 > Asymmetric warfare
Tensions between models 8.3
of society/culture 7.2
5.3
Communicable diseases
2.9
to invest long term (>5 years) to solving one of these global challenges, which one would it be?"
162
8. Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large
amount of money: Education, climate, alternative energy and health
20.5
18.4
17.6 16.8
13.9
12.8
9.8 10.4 9.8

9.0 9.2 9.2

7.6 8.0
7.2
5.0 5.7 4.9 5.0
4.2 4.9
3.4 3.4 3.3
2.4 2.5
1.6 1.6 1.6
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.0
Edu- Climate Alternative Health Hunger Poverty Resource Aids Environ- Religious Intercultural
cation energy depletion ment radicalism under-
standing
USD 1 m USD 100 m USD 10 bn
Question: "If you had a one-time opportunity to spend the amounts below to improve the state of the world,
what would you allocate it to?"
163
9. Area in which Young Global Leaders would like to spend a large
amount of money: Other ideas
USD 1 m USD 100 m USA 10 bn
> Girl/child abuse > Discrimination/emancipation > Resource depletion
> Global values > Campaigns to eliminate trade > Democracy
> Educating business on case for barriers and subsidies > Create progressive global
genuine diversity > Creation of independent media media empire
> Strengthening grassroots civil in developing countries > Global cooperatives
society > Financing social entrepreneurs > Infrastructure in 3rd World

> Website for information > Improving quality of cities in > Limit use of automobile
dissemination in developing developing countries > Research in biotech
world > Campaign to increase > Debt relief cluster of promising
> That doesn't get you anywhere immigration of low-skilled African countries – but then be
> Emergency relief workers from developing world allowed to govern for 10 years!
> Children's sport programs > Network organizations comple- > Reforming soil pollution and
mentary to governmental ones teaching agriculture
(like International Crisis Group)
> Space exploration
Question: "If you had a one-time opportunity to spend the amounts below to improve the state of the world,
what would you allocate it to?"
164
10. Online social networking: In 2030, Young Global Leaders will spend
considerably more time online to network
[%]
ALL Today 28.0 50.8 13.6 4.5 3.0

YGLs 2030 5.3 34.8 27.3 18.2 14.4
BUSINESS Today 29.4 54.4 10.3 5.9

YGLs 2030 2.9 38.6 30.0 17.1 11.4
US Today 24.2 51.5 18.2 3.0 3.0

YGLs 2030 38.2 20.6 17.6 23.5
Hours per week: 0 <5 5-10 10-15 15+
Question: "How many hours per week do/will you spend on online social networking?"
165
C. Weak signals
166
1. Weak signals: Observations of Young Global Leaders that could be
a first sign of future trends (1/3)
Climate change & Radicalization and
Power shifts
environmental issues asymmetric warfare
43% of the Young Global Leaders 40% of the Young Global Leaders 31% of the Young Global Leaders
mentioned weak signals in this area. mentioned weak signals in this area. mentioned weak signals in this area.
Selected examples: Selected examples: Selected examples:
> Birds tend not to fly to Africa anymore > Number of children named Osama > China buying into Blackstone
over winter > Cyber terrorism > Russia aligning with Iran
> Extremely hot summer in Tokyo > The increase of votes to extremist > Rise of multinational corporation as a
> Ice melting in Greenland parties in Europe new nation state
> Stars driving ecological cars > A friend making surprisingly negative > London becoming an offshore

comments about other location
religions/societies
Increasing impact of Globalization and
Resource scarcity
technology on everyday life globalization effects
> Child buying car on ebay > China turns into food importer > Hip-hop music in China
> More networking and nothing can be > Cost of natural resources > European & Asian universities
hidden > Depleting marine resources teaching all classes in English
> 24/7 personal profiling and tracking > Anti globalization movement
across all platforms
Question: "What do you see as the three most important 'weak signals' for the future?
(A weak signal is an (even small) observation, which – in your mind – is the first sign of a future trend.)"
167
Weak signals (2/3)
Changing society patterns (22) Shifts in wealth distribution (20) Individualism (16)
> Less women wanting to work full time > Individual wealth concentration > Number of people going into online
> Female diplomatic envoys/heads of > Emerging middle class in India second life type works
state > Decreasing importance and
commitment to human rights

Demographic change and
Spreading democracy (14) (12) Health (9)
migration
14% of the Young Global Leaders 12% of the Young Global Leaders 9% of the Young Global Leaders mentioned
mentioned weak signals in this area. mentioned weak signals in this area. weak signals in this area.
> Independent media in developing > Average Japanese farmer over 60 > Rise of autism in US children –
countries years old and we don't know the source
> Open source software, Wikis – > Migrants arriving by thousands every > Increasing embracement of alternative
all about harnessing collective day in Europe medicine, therapies
intelligence and spiritualism
168
Weak signals (3/3)
Others
Selected examples:
> CEO's hold their position shorter times
> Bubble in diverse equity markets
> Eating habits move towards vegetarian
> Going to moon and Mars
> Google will run absolutely everything

> 20-20 cricket
> Whether New Orleans is rebuilt
> Moore's Law (exponential growth
in computing power)
> Nanotech textiles
> Number of things being monitored real time
> Paul Allen is funding a radio telescope array – if we detect a weak signal from any other civilization,
it will change the way humanity sees itself
> Anti-religionism
169
C. OPINIONS OF YOUNG GLOBAL LEADERs
170
INDIVIDUAL OPINIONS: Young Global Leader Opinion editorials (1/3)
YOUNG GLBOAL LEADER OPINION EDITORIALS

Agassi, Shai Bremmer, Ian
Founder and CEO, Project Better Place President, Eurasia Group
The Future of Transportation Globalization and a World of Risk

Baggio, Rodrigo Cabrera, Angel
Executive Director, Committee for Democracy in Information President, Thunderbird School of Global Management, USA

Technology (CDI)
The Possible World of Technology User For Good Not as Flat as It May Seem
Bartiromo, Maria Casey, Caroline
Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell and Host and Managing Editor, Wall Founding Chief Executive Officer, The Aisling Foundation, Ireland
Street Journal Report, CNBC
China And India: A Mixed Picture The Business Case for Homogeneity?
Bharadwai, Neerai Fernandez, Tony
Managing Director and Country Head, Apax Partners India Advisers Group Chief Executive Officer, Air Asia, Malaysia
Pvt Ltd, India
Are We Underestimating the Impact of Computer… Quo Vadis, ASEAN?
Bishop, Matthew Goldman, Neal
New York Bureau Chief, The Economist Chief Executive, Goode Holdings LLC, United Kingdom
The Philanthropy Revolution Visual Summary

171

H.R.H. Crown Prince Haakon of Norway Kuzamanovic, Maja
President, FoAM, Belgium
Global Dignity On Turbulence and Entanglement

Himanen, Pekka Meyer, Paul
Philosopher, HIIT, Finland Co-Founder, Chairman and President, Voxiva, USA

A New Oration on Dignity Only Five Computers
Idriss, Shamil Michel-Kerjan, Erwann
Acting Director, UN Alliance of Civilizations, USA Managing Director, Center for Risk Management and Decision
Processes, The Wharton School
Whose Life in 2030? The New Risk Architecture
Kremer, Michael Mumenthaler, Christian
Gates Professor of Developing Societies, Harvard University Chief Risk Officer and Member of the Executive Board,
Swiss Re, Switzerland
Future Trends in Aid Understanding Interconnections of Global Challenges
Krings, Frank Payet, Rolph
Chief Operating Officer, Europe and Member of the Management Special Adviser to the President of Seychelles,
Committee, Germany, Deutsche Bank AG Office of the President of Seychelles
Trend, Transition or Tremolo? The Future of Water
172

Penninger, Josef Van Oranje, Mabel
Scientific and Admin. Director, Institute of Molecular Biotechnology International Advocacy Director, Open Society Institute and Co-
of the Academy of Sciences, Austria Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, UK
The Brave New World of Genetics and Biotechnology Human rights in 2030
Salbi, Zainab Wood, John
Founder and CEO, Wonen for Women International Founder and CEO, Room to Read

Stronger Women, Stronger Nations A Call to Action
Sorkin, Andrew Zafar, Sobhan
Chief Reporter and Editor, Mergers and Acquisitions, Assistant Editor, The Daily Star
The New York Times
Mapping the Medium and the Message Starfish Nation
Stephens, Bret Zarur Andrey
Columnist and Member of the Editorial Board, Dow Jones and General Partner, Kodiak Venture Partners and Senior Lecturer,
Company Inc. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Is Freedom Predictable? Trends in Human Health
Tilman, Leo Zittraun, Jonathan
Senior Managing Director and Chief Institutional Strategist, Professor, Internet Governance and Regulation,
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. University of Oxford, United Kingdom
The Big Unknown Future Mapping Commentary
173
APPENDIX
1. Life in 2030
174
APPENDIX
1. Life in 2030
175
OVERVIEW: Your life in 2030
1. Housing in 2030: Your high-tech house will be communicative, able to sense your
needs, and carbon-neutral
2. Eating & drinking in 2030: Food is not only convenient, delicious and healthy,
but it makes you more concentrated and smarter
3. Learning in 2030: Global superstar teachers will teach your children, while lifelong
personalized learning packages keep you up to speed

4. Working in 2030: You conduct virtual meetings from home, and the colleagues
you lead have professions you didn't even know in 2007
5. Traveling in 2030: Your hydrogen car steers itself automatically on the highway,
while you plan your next suborbital space trip
6. Communicating in 2030: You smile when you think about the old 2007
Blackberries and start a discussion with real-time language translation
7. Relaxing in 2030: You enjoy virtual holidays together with your extended family,
or the feeling of being embraced by a hug T-shirt
176
1. Housing in 2030: Your high-tech house will be communicative, able
to sense your needs, and carbon-neutral
1 THE COMMUNICATIVE HIGH-TECH HOME
When entering your home in 2030, discreet computerized agents sense your needs, monitor your
environment, and await your spoken instructions. All electronic devices are connected, e.g. a message
will appear on the wallpaper while you are watching your favorite 3D movie to tell you that your meal is
ready. Every room is linked to any monitored public space, or you can also see any private spaces for
which you have access rights. For working at home, all necessary high-tech appliances for virtual video
conferencing, etc. are built in as standard features in your house, and in all hotels you stay at.
2 CARBON-NEUTRAL LIVING

Like all newer buildings, your house will be carbon-neutral, meaning that it doesn't use greenhouse gas-
emitting fossil fuel energy to operate. Housing is based on organic, climate-adapted architecture for
low-emission, recyclable homes and sustainability compliance. Since you have installed the latest
technology, it is no problem for you to meet the targets set for water conservation, recycling and solar
power usage.
3 FLAT-PACKED, ADAPTABLE 'KIT HOUSES'

In your home town, like in almost any larger city throughout the world, 'kit cities' have grown enormously
over the past years. Accommodating the urban middle class, fast and modular housing is offered either
through cheaper, pre-fabricated or flat-packed 'kit houses' or in the form of instant roof-top add-on
units that maximize existing rooftop space in high-density areas. Overall, more adaptable and
affordable housing is mass-produced to enable 3+ generations to live under one roof, e.g. to facilitate
eldercare.
177
2. Eating & drinking in 2030: Food is not only convenient, delicious
and healthy, but it makes you more concentrated and smarter
1 MORE THAN NUTRITIOUS
Food and drinks now come from 'pharming' – the convergence of the food and pharmaceutical
industries. Consequently, filling your stomach is but one of several objectives you have in mind when
buying food. There are few products anymore that don't raise your level of concentration, help you fall
asleep, or aid digestion. Drinks that make your synapses connect faster are still quite costly, as are
products that stimulate specific parts of your brain, for example to heighten creativity or math skills.
However, urban gardens with agricultural plots are very much on the rise for people seeking to re-
connect to the traditional food chain.
2 HEALTH-CONVENIENT MEALS

If you're in a hurry, you don't need to reach for a burger. Having a fast, organic, ready-made and
healthy meal is no longer a paradox, since it has all converged into one. However, fragmented
consumer needs drive the industry, and novel foods like artificial meat are catering to experimental
'foodies'. Online shopping will dominate all purchases with a multiple household delivery system via
eco-friendly vehicles. Smart media has replaced paper money, as have self-service checkouts,
rendering cashiers obsolete.
3 SMART PACKAGING
The packaging of the food you buy not only includes smart RFID chips for a faster supply chain and
automatic check-out, but it also displays all kinds of new information aside from traditional nutritional
value and ingredients lists: extra functional values (e.g. increased level of concentration, help in falling
asleep, aiding digestion); carbon and water footprint indicator (i.e. resources used for production of
food item), food miles (i.e. distance travelled, local versus imported) and more health-related indicators
such as time needed to digest, side effects when consumed with medicines, etc. 178
3. Learning in 2030: Global superstar teachers will teach your children,
while lifelong personalized learning packages keep you up to speed
1 GLOBAL SUPERSTAR TEACHERS
Virtual classes start at a different time every morning, depending on when your children are ready for
school. Global superstar teachers lecture to classes dispersed around the globe, using telepresence
and 3D technologies. Classes are in all languages as a result of automatic real-time language
translations. Interactive media links diverse and dispersed groups of educators and students in ad hoc
groups to establish new forms of collective assessments and qualifications.
2 PERSONALIZED LIFELONG LEARNING PACKAGES

Virtual learning agents guide you through the massive quantity and different forms of education on offer.

To meet your personal needs, the agent will assemble educational offers into a formation of functions and
roles, producing lifelong and needs-based learning plans tailor-made for you. You can of course adjust
your personal learning plan at any time, and there will be automatic updates. Learning experiences are
immersing and mediated within a learning community as opposed to merely digital, computer-bound and
isolating e-learning.
3 1 CHILD, 2 LAPTOPS, 3 REALITIES

Your children are much more technologically adept than you, just as they were in 2007. Fully connected
and equipped to live in a world which is simultaneously real and virtual, your child negotiates reality
games and real-life interactions equally well. A culture of layered realities has become common and is
having a positive impact on learning: cooperative, critical-thinking and problem-solving practices as
found in digital games today. Younger members of society are mentors for older community members
with regards to methods of urban and digital survival, computing and networking.
179
4. Working in 2030: You conduct virtual meetings from home, and the
colleagues you lead have professions you didn't even know in 2007
1 VIRTUAL-FLEXIBLE PROJECT WORK
You usually don't spend more than 5 to 8 hours a week in the office. Project work in virtual teams is
flexible, time-efficient and therefore standard, and so at meetings and conferences, most participants are
either at home or traveling. Being on a plane is no longer an obstacle to work, since you can securely
access your office from any place on the planet. Nevertheless, even passionate teleworkers come to
their paperless office at least once a week, to socialize and exchange gossip.
2 SILVER GIRL POWER

The 65 years+ cohort, to which you will belong in a couple of years, are more capable and powerful

than ever, for example by way of cognitive enhancement, physical augmentation, bionics, etc.
Women in particular pursue their economic interests for longer. The most common picture shows
workforce participation rates decreasing for older men and increasing for older women, i.e. the ability of
women to accumulate and control economic resources in older age and to be better off, even as
widows. Also, as more children will get to know even their great-grandmothers, and perceive them as a
productive part of society, the perception of the older working woman is a positive one.
3 TISSUE ENGINEERS AND ECO-SCOUTS
High on the list of today's most attractive professions are: tissue engineers working with man-made skin
and cartilage; gene programmers; 'pharmers' producing foodstuffs with therapeutic proteins and intra-
food vaccines; eco-scouts hunting down 'Trojan gene effects' in new foods released into the supply
chain, data mining gurus; remote do-it-yourself handymen; virtual-reality actors interacting with you
in pay-per-play cyberspace; narrowcasters (personalized media providers); human simulators;
internet attachés; and knowledge engineers. 180
5. Traveling in 2030: Your hydrogen car steers itself automatically on
the highway, while you plan your next suborbital space trip
1 INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION
If you want to go on busy motorways, you have to book a time slot or have VIP annual allowances,
which can be traded. Car-sharing/-pooling, but also inner-city congestion charging and toll roads are
normal. Cars are fully tracked via black boxes and GPS, determining insurance premiums and
personal vehicle taxes. While most cars still work at least partly with traditional fuels, hydrogen and
synthetic fuels account for an ever increasing share. Nanotechnology that keeps all dirt away from your
car has posed a serious threat to traditional carwashes.
2 SHORT FAST TRIPS

Back in 2007, your summer holidays sometimes lasted for weeks. Today, holiday trips are much shorter
and generally taken more frequently, at least 4-5 times a year. Because of supersonic and shape-
shifting aircrafts, you don't have to travel more than five hours to any major destination on earth if
you are prepared to pay a premium. China is still the number 1 tourist destination, for both the more
affluent fast-flying holiday-seekers and the money-saving tourists prepared to fly one or two hours
longer.
3 SUBORBITAL SPACE TRAVEL
Suborbital space travel has become an affordable reality, some 20 years after its first commercial
launch. Multiple international spaceports cater to this expanding market. You fly 100km above the
surface of the earth and experience thirty minutes weightlessness during the three-hour flight, with four
hours preparation. Among higher-income families, a space trip has become the most popular
Christmas present in 2030. Due to many low cost 'spacelines' which have entered the market over the
past decade, flights can be found for as little as USD 3,500 (2007: USD 102,000). The leading hub is
Dubai, catering to the affluent Middle Eastern market. 181
6. Communicating in 2030: You smile when you think about the old 2007
Blackberries and start a discussion with real-time language translation
1 DEVICES, DEVICES, DEVICES
Different from the beginning of your career, there is a constant conversation with network services
and devices today. Corporate-style 'dashboards' are now also in the personal domain, allowing not
only for speaking with others on the phone, exchanging mails, or participating in virtual conferences, but
for real-time control of all aspects of life. For example, you can conduct verbal communication via the
semantic web with intelligent digital gurus that search and find the information you need. Your
communication devices can also arrange social appointments, supervise domestic appliance and home
networks and add new knowledge files to personal interests and hobbies.

2 LANGUAGE ENGINEERING
You don't need to know foreign languages anymore. While English is still the lingua franca, language is
no longer an obstacle to conversation, since real-time language translation service can be accessed
anywhere at low cost. This has allowed minority languages and dialects to flourish as more time is
actually spent conversing in native tongues. As a further consequence, R&D time and effort is now spent
on the final linguistic frontier: human-animal conversation.
3 COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
Hierarchy-free, dispersed 'discourse communities', e.g. based on shared interests or support groups,
allow one-to-one interconnectedness of complex cultural and decision-making systems. Using
discussion boards, chat rooms, multi-user online games and other computer-mediated communication
tools, such communication networks can create statistically unpredictable shifts. In other words, invisible
communication patterns emerge 'under the radar' of corporate decision makers and governments.
182
7. Relaxing in 2030: You enjoy virtual holidays together with your
extended family, or the feeling of being embraced by a hug T-shirt
1 EXTENDED FAMILY
When thinking about your family, you don't think only of your parents and your children. Besides this lean,
core family, you care about your peripheral family (blended families and e-babies) plus your family of
communities (e.g. communities of practice, discourse communities) and orbital social structures which
include avatars, social and virtual networks, personal agents/digital gurus and edu-coaches. As all
members of a 'family' have the same set-up, core family time is very limited.
2 VIRTUAL HOLIDAYS
Knowing that digital world media is sometimes superior to reality, offering an enriched experience,

you spend entire weekends or longer in virtual realities. Simultaneous or interchangeable use of
digital and real conversation and other media are part of the new user skill set. Computerized agents
produce and understand speech well enough to conduct conversations with you. In addition, you can
access vast libraries of documents, art, recorded music, films, personal broadcasts, computer software
and other media. All these are controlled and navigated through a mixture of conversation and visual
indexing services.
3 JUST RELAX
When there is absolutely nothing you want to do, you don't do anything. Domestic technology has freed
you from housework, since functional nanomaterials are used on self-cleaning windows, in self-cleaning
baths and other interior applications to kill germs. A personal digital agent excels at routine lifestyle
and social management – e.g. organizing travel, providing routine medical, financial or legal advice,
scheduling social appointments, and supervising domestic appliances and home networks. If you can
return home only virtually at night, a high-tech garment T-shirt will ease your evening, simulating the
experience of being embraced by a loved one. 183
APPENDIX
1. Life in 2030
184
1. What happens when humans predict their future?
London 1867 In 1867, a British scientist predicted that … because of the population growth,
London's population would grow very he argued, also many more horse

fast over the next 100 years… carriages would be needed…
…and knowing about the horses' public By 1967, London would be buried six
bathroom habits, he concluded: feet deep in horse dung!
185
2. What certain "visionaries" have said about the future (1)
CREATIVITY MUSIC TRANSPORT HEALTH EQUALITY
"Everything that "We don't like their "Heavier-than-air "That virus is a "If anything

can be invented sound, and guitar flying machines pussycat." remains more or
has been music is on the are impossible." less unchanged, it
invented." way out." will be the role of
women."
Charles Duell, US Decca Recording Co. Lord Kelvin, President Peter Duesberg, David Riesman,
patent office, 1899 rejecting the Beatles, of the Royal Society, molecular biology conservative American
1962 1895 professor at U.C. social scientist, 1967
Berkeley, on HIV, 1988
186
What certain "visionaries" have said about the future (2)
POLITICS TECHNOLOGY MEDIA IT COMMUNICATION
"Democracy "Nuclear-powered "Who the hell "I think there is a "The telephone

will be dead by vacuum cleaners wants to hear world market for has too many
1950." will probably be a actors talk?" maybe five shortcomings to
reality in 10 computers." be seriously
years." considered as a
means of com-
munication."
John Langdon-Davies, Alex Lewyt, president H.M. Warner, co- Chairman of IBM, Western Union internal
British author, 1936 of vacuum cleaner founder of Warner 1943 memo, 1876
company Lewyt Corp., Brothers, 1927
1955
187
3. What can we learn from all this?
> Predicting the future is difficult –

The future is not a linear extrapolation of the past. The world can develop
in many different directions
> Even the brightest minds can be completely wrong –
Having a decade of experience in a field or being a Nobel prize laureate
doesn't make your predictions right

> Luck and unforeseeable events play an important role –
And there is no way to calculate them, but you have to be aware of their existence
> Technological inventions can change everything –
The way we live, communicate, think… and the fate of London
188
4. There are different ideas about the development of the world
IN WAVES LINEAR CIRCULAR STIMULUS-DRIVEN CHAOTIC

189
Text behind animated chart
> Kondratieff: Long waves (S-shaped, technology-driven cycles of modern capitalism that last decades)
IN WAVES > Business cycles: Economic ups and downs, labor markets, interest rates, stock markets
> Darwin: Survival of the fittest

LINEAR > Knowledge, experience, etc, which are based on what previously existed and therefore steadily increase
(e.g. Hegel: thesis, antithesis, synthesis)
> Religious beliefs of reincarnation

CIRCULAR > The eradication of new epidemics and illnesses, such as the plague in the 14th century, smallpox in the

16th century, cholera in 19th century and malaria, bird flu, HIV, etc., hopefully in the near future
STIMULUS- > Shifts in direction after single events: environmental awareness after Chernobyl, focus on security after 9/11
> Creationism
DRIVEN > Marxism
CHAOTIC > No existing structure, or no structure that humans can identify
190
5. The future can be predicted professionally
> Futurology is concerned with three Ps and a W: possible, probable, and preferable futures plus
wildcards, which are improbable events that would have a strong impact if they occurred (natural
disasters, epidemics, terrorist attacks)
> Futurists have different approaches to making predictions. The most common are the
extrapolation of current technological, economic or social trends, and scenario building based on
an examination of social systems and uncertainties

> When thinking about the future, considering the predictability of future events is key, as is the
probability of the predicted future, the scope of a prediction or trend, the timeframe of the
forecast, and the links between different developments
> Countless people spend their lives predicting the future. There are hundreds of future research
centers worldwide, corporate planning departments, political think tanks, etc. that make sound
predictions. Over 40 colleges and universities worldwide offer courses in future studies
191
Please e-mail us at

future@younggloballeaders.org
with comments and feedback.
192
This material was prepared by the World Economic Forum and Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants.
The trends and predictions presented in this document are based on publicly available
sources. We rely on these sources, without independent verification of the information
presented. All recipients of this material must make their own independent assessment of
the material, and neither Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, the World Economic Forum,

the Forum of Young Global Leaders nor any of its affiliates, partners, officers, employees,
agents or advisers shall be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage
suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement in, or alleged omission from,
this material. This material is not complete without the accompanying discussion.
193

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FUTURE MAPPING for the Global Agenda

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

> This presentation consists of four parts:

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Sources: United Nations Population Division, City Mayors 11

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

4 INTO THE CITIES

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit, TNS Infratest 14

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Sources: UNCTAD, Horizon 2020, DB Research 17

1 INCREASINGLY GLOBAL FOOTPRINT

2 MORE NETWORKS AND FLEXIBILITY

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

3 INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO STAY INDEPENDENT

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Sources: United Nations, UNCTAD, future think tanks 20

Location Road Computers Fully

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Sources: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline, BT Technology Timeline 21

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

MOST IMPORTANT MOST IMPORTANT KEY GOVERNING ACTORS

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Source: United Nations 26

2 CONVERGING GENDER GAP

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

3 UP AGAIN FROM THE BOTTOM

5 GETTING VERY OLD

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Global deaths [m] 1 MORE DEATHS FROM NON-

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

2 Road traffic accidents 4 DYING LATER

Sources: World Health Organization, PLoS Medicine 29

1 MORE DEATHS FROM NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

2 CANCER AND AIDS ON THE RISE

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

3 MORE DEATHS CAUSED BY INJURY

5 LOWER INFANT MORTALITY

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Sources: World Health Organization, PLoS Medicine 32

2 SHRINKING BURDEN OF DISEASE

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

3 HIV/AIDS AND DEPRESSION IN THE LEAD

4 INCREASINGLY UNHEALTHY LIFESTYLES

5 INCREASING EFFORT TO KICK UNHEALTHY HABITS

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Health expenditure [% of GDP] 1 HIGHER COST OF

© 2007 World Economic Forum / Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Source: World Health Organization, national statistics 35

1 HIGHER COST OF HEALTHCARE