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Alamat: http://www.baam.emich.edu/baamsciencelessons/baammillsrules.htm
Mill's methods, here taken from chapter VIII of the 1859 edition of A System of Logic,
describe the basic methods of causal determination that, although not without limits,
continue to form the basis of inferences of causality throughout science. Although a
functional analysis of behavior is a hybrid of inductive and deductive methods, a
behavior analyst will see Mill's rules as comprising the basic methodology for
discovering functional relations in behavior.
The limitations of these kinds of inferences will be seen to lie in the completeness of
the cataloging of events. It is possible arrive at incorrect conclusions if all the
possible causal events have not been identified. Thus, these methods become
increasingly effective as the analysis of the situation becomes more thorough. The examples below show minimum
conditions. As more combinations of events are added, irrelevant conditions can be excluded, and methods of analysis
are combined, the inferences become stronger. For instance, if we see that two events always occur together, we can
determine which causes the other, or if they are both caused by a third unknown event, by presenting each exclusion,
and observing the effect. Further analysis of this type will further narrow possible causes.
While these rules might seem like "common sense," it is to be remembered that such logic was not always clear in the
history of science. The application of these rules in complex cases is not necessarily as straightforward as it would seem
in the kinds of examples we provide below. The fact that so many seem to fail to apply these rules in everyday and
scientific decision making also suggests that "common sense" is not as common as it should be.
Pelajaran Ilmu BAAM Metode Induksi Mill: Aturan Keputusan untuk Inferensi Kausal
________________________________________ Metode Induksi Mill "Metode induksi" John Stuart
Mill adalah lima aturan dasar untuk membuat kesimpulan kausal induktif. Aturan-aturan itu pertama
kali dijelaskan dalam edisi 1848 klasik Sistem Logika Mill dan dipertahankan melalui semua edisi
berikutnya. Dalam A System of Logic, Mill memperluas dan memodernisasi pandangan Francis
Bacon tentang ilmu induktif sebagaimana dinyatakan dalam Novum Organon dan karya-karya
lainnya, dengan manfaat tambahan dari banyak contoh dan penjelasan rinci. Taktik Penelitian Ilmiah
Murray Sidman, di mana Sidman membahas penerapan metode induktif untuk penelitian dalam
analisis eksperimental perilaku, dapat dilihat untuk menjadi keturunan konseptual karya Mill.
Meskipun Mill's System of Logic sekarang sulit untuk dibaca karena gaya penulisan abad ke-19 yang
luas, membaca itu masih sepadan dengan usaha. Metode Mill, di sini diambil dari bab VIII edisi 1859
dari A System of Logic, menggambarkan metode dasar penentuan kausal yang, meskipun tidak
tanpa batas, terus membentuk dasar kesimpulan kausalitas di seluruh sains. Meskipun analisis
fungsional perilaku adalah hibrida dari metode induktif dan deduktif, seorang analis perilaku akan
melihat aturan Mill sebagai terdiri dari metodologi dasar untuk menemukan hubungan fungsional
dalam perilaku. Keterbatasan dari jenis kesimpulan ini akan terlihat terletak pada kelengkapan
katalogisasi peristiwa. Adalah mungkin sampai pada kesimpulan yang salah jika semua
kemungkinan kejadian-kejadian kausal belum teridentifikasi. Dengan demikian, metode ini menjadi
semakin efektif karena analisis situasi menjadi lebih teliti. Contoh di bawah ini menunjukkan kondisi
minimum. Karena semakin banyak kombinasi acara ditambahkan, kondisi yang tidak relevan dapat
dikecualikan, dan metode analisis digabungkan, kesimpulan menjadi lebih kuat. Misalnya, jika kita
melihat bahwa dua peristiwa selalu terjadi bersama-sama, kita dapat menentukan yang
menyebabkan yang lain, atau jika keduanya disebabkan oleh peristiwa ketiga yang tidak diketahui,
dengan menghadirkan setiap pengecualian, dan mengamati efeknya. Analisis lebih lanjut dari jenis
ini akan semakin mempersempit kemungkinan penyebab. Sementara aturan-aturan ini mungkin
tampak seperti "akal sehat," harus diingat bahwa logika seperti itu tidak selalu jelas dalam sejarah
sains. Penerapan aturan-aturan ini dalam kasus-kasus yang rumit tidak harus sesederhana seperti
yang terlihat dalam contoh-contoh yang kami sediakan di bawah ini. Fakta bahwa begitu banyak
yang tampaknya gagal untuk menerapkan aturan-aturan ini dalam pengambilan keputusan sehari-
hari dan ilmiah juga menunjukkan bahwa "akal sehat" tidak umum seperti seharusnya.
References
Bacon, F. (1620/1860). The novum organon, or a true guide to the interpretation of nature[trans. G.W.
Kitchen].Oxford: Oxford University Press. (PDF)
Mill, J.S. (1859). A system of logic, ratioclinative and inductive; being a connected view of the principles of
evidence and the methods of scientific investigation. New York: Harper Brothers. (PDF)
If two or more instances of the phenomenon under investigation have only one circumstance in common, the
circumstance in which alone all the instances agree, is the cause (or effect) of the given phenomenon. (Mill, 1859, p. 224)
ABCDabcd
AEFGahij
We concluded that "A" is related to "a" because they are the only events in common. We are looking for what the two sets
of events have in common.
If cookies are stolen only when Johnny is present in a group of children, we would suspect Johnny as the thief. If another
child were also always present we could use this method only to narrow the suspects down to those two.
If an instance in which the phenomenon under investigation occurs, and an, instance in which it does not occur, have
every circumstance save one in common, that one occurring only in the former ; the circumstance tn which alone the two
instances differ, is the effect, or cause, or a necessary part of the cause, of the phenomenon. (Mill, 1859, p. 225)
ABCDabcd
ABCDabcd
We conclude that "A" is related to "a" because when "A" is absent "a" does not occur.
Cookies are always missing from the cookie jar except on days when Johnny is gone. We suspect Johnny is the thief
because the cookies remain safe when Johnny is not there. Freddy, a clever thief, could use our method of analysis to
"frame" Johnny by stealing cookies only when Johnny is present. A more thorough analysis might be needed to discover
the real culprit.
If two or more instances in which the phenomenon occur have only one circumstance in common, while two or more
instances in which it does not occur have nothing in common save the absence of that circumstance; the circumstance in
which alone the two sets of instances differ, is the effect, or cause, or a necessary part of the cause, of the phenomenon.
(Mill, 1859, p. 229)
We conclude that "A" is related to "a" because "a" only occurs when "A" occurs, and never occurs when "A" is a absent.
Cookies are always missing from the cookie jar whenever Johnny is in a group of children, and never when Johnny is
missing from one or more of those same groups. This does not apply to any other child. We therefore suspect Johnny as
the thief.
Subduct from any phenomenon such part at it known by previous inductions to be the eject of certain antecedents, and
the residue of the phenomenon is the effect of the remaining antecedents. (Mill, 1859, p. 230)
ABCabc
B is known to be the cause of b by prior analysis
C is known to be the cause of c by prior analysis
We conclude that "A" is related to "a" because we know that "B" is not related to "a," but related to "b," and "C" is not
related "a" but is related to "c."
New cookies appear in jar one day shortly after Mary, Sally, and Sue arrive for work. We know that Mary only brought
potato chips and Sally only brought juice. Therefore, we suspect that Sue has brought the cookies.
Whatever phenomenon varies in any manner whenever another phenomenon varies in some particular manner, is either
a cause or an effect of that phenomenon, or it connected with it through some fact of causation. (Mill, 1859, p. 233)
ABCabc
Both A and a change in magnitude, with no change in any other event.
We conclude that "A" is related to "a" because changes in the value of "A" are only accompanied by changes in "a."
The number of cookies missing from the jar in the morning is proportional to the number of crumbs on Johnny's shirt.
Similar corresponding variations are not observed in any other child. We therefore suspect that Johnny is the thief.
Keempat Canon: Metode Residu
Subduksi dari setiap fenomena seperti bagian yang dikenal dengan induksi sebelumnya menjadi pelepasan
anteseden tertentu, dan residu dari fenomena adalah efek dari anteseden yang tersisa. (Mill, 1859, hal 230)
Kami mengamati tiga set ketentuan berikut:
•ABCabc
• B diketahui sebagai penyebab b dengan analisis sebelumnya
• C diketahui sebagai penyebab c dengan analisis sebelumnya
Kami menyimpulkan bahwa "A" terkait dengan "a" karena kami tahu bahwa "B" tidak terkait dengan "a," tetapi
terkait dengan "b," dan "C" tidak terkait "a" tetapi terkait dengan "c". . "
Cookie baru muncul di toples satu hari tak lama setelah Mary, Sally, dan Sue tiba untuk bekerja. Kita tahu
bahwa Mary hanya membawa keripik kentang dan Sally hanya membawa jus. Oleh karena itu, kami menduga
bahwa Sue telah membawa kue.
Canon Kelima: Metode Variasi Sejalan
Fenomena apa pun bervariasi dalam hal apa pun ketika fenomena lain bervariasi dalam beberapa cara tertentu,
entah itu penyebab atau efek dari fenomena itu, atau terhubung dengannya melalui beberapa fakta sebab-akibat.
(Mill, 1859, hal. 233)
Kami mengamati dua set kondisi berikut:
•ABCabc
• Kedua A dan perubahan besarnya, tanpa perubahan dalam acara lainnya.
Kami menyimpulkan bahwa "A" terkait dengan "a" karena perubahan nilai "A" hanya disertai dengan
perubahan "a."
Jumlah kue yang hilang dari toples di pagi hari sebanding dengan jumlah remah-remah di baju Johnny. Variasi
serupa yang serupa tidak diamati pada anak lainnya. Karena itu kami menduga bahwa Johnny adalah pencuri.