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ENGINEERING ECONOMY

SESSION V

PRESENT WORTH
ANALYSIS

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
PURPOSE OF THIS CHAPTER
 FORMULATION OF MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
ALTERNITIVES
 PROPER COMPARISON/ANALYSIS OF
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE ALTERNATIVES
 PRESENT WORTH METHOD
 EXTENSIONS OF THE PRESENT WORTH
METHOD

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CHAPTER TOPICS
Formulating Alternatives
PW of Equal-Life Alternatives
PW of Different-Life alternatives
Future Worth Analysis
Capitalized Cost Analysis
Payback Period
Life-Cycle Costs
PW of Bonds
Spreadsheet Applications

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5.1 FORMULATING MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE


ALTERNATIVES

Viable firms/organizations have the


capability to generate potential
beneficial projects for potential
investment
Two types of investment categories
 Mutually Exclusive Set
 Independent Project Set

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5.1 FORMULATING MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE


ALTERNATIVES

Mutually Exclusive set is where a


candidate set of alternatives exist
(more than one)
Objective: Pick one and only one from
the set.
Once selected, the remaining
alternatives are excluded.

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5.1 INDEPENDENT PROJECT SET

Given a set of alternatives (more than


one)
The objective is to:
 Select the best possible combination of
projects from the set that will optimize a
given criteria.
 Subjects to constraints
 More difficult problem than the mutually
exclusive approach

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5.1 FORMULATING MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE


ALTERNATIVES

Mutually exclusive alternatives compete


with each other.
Independent alternatives may or may
not compete with each other
The independent project selection
problem deals with constraints and may
require a mathematical programming or
bundling technique to evaluate.

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5.1 Type of Alternatives

Revenue/Cost – the alternatives consist


of cash inflow and cash outflows
 Select the alternative with the maximum
economic value
Service – the alternatives consist mainly
of cost elements
 Select the alternative with the minimum
economic value (min. cost alternative)

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5.1 Evaluating Alternatives

Part of Engineering Economy is the


selection and execution of the best
alternative from among a set of
feasible alternatives
Alternatives must be generated
from within the organization
 One of the roles of engineers!

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5.1 Evaluating Alternatives

In part, the role of the engineer to


properly evaluate alternatives from
a technical and economic view
Must generate a set of feasible
alternatives to solve a specific
problem/concern

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5.1 Alternatives
Do
Nothing

Analysis

Alt.
1

Selection
Problem Alt.
2

Alt. Execution
m

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5.1 Alternatives: The Selected Alternative

Problem Alt.
Execution
Selected

Audit and Track

Selection is dependent upon the data, life,


discount rate, and assumptions made.
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5.2 Present Worth Approach Equal-Lifes

Simple – Transform all of the current


and future estimated cash flow back to
a point in time (time t = 0)
Have to have a discount rate before the
analysis in started
Result is in equivalent dollars now!

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD

A process of obtaining the


equivalent worth of future cash
flows to some point in time

– called the Present Worth

At an interest rate usually equal to or


greater than the Organization’s
established MARR.

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD

P(i%) = P( + cash flows) +


P( - cash flows)
OR, . . .
P(i%) = P(+) – P(-).

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD

If P(i%) > 0 then the project is


deemed acceptable.
If P(i%) < 0 – the project is usually
rejected.

If P(i%) = 0 Present worth of costs = Present


worth of revenues – Indifferent!

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD

If the present worth of a project turns out to =


“0,” that means the project earned exactly the
discount rate that was used to discount the cash
flows!

The interest rate that causes a cash flow’s NPV


to equal “0” is called the Rate of Return of the
cash flow!

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD

For P(i%) > 0, the following holds true:

A positive present worth is a dollar


amount of "profit" over the minimum
amount required by the investors
(owners).

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD –


Depends upon the Discount Rate Used

The present worth is purely a


function of the MARR (the
discount rate one uses).
If one changes the discount rate, a
different present worth will result.

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5.2 THE PRESENT WORTH METHOD

For P(i%) > 0, the following


holds true:
Acceptance or rejection of a
project is a function of the timing
and magnitude of the project's
cash flows, and the choice of the
discount rate.

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5.2 PRESENT WORTH: Special


Applications

Present Worth of Equal Lived


Alternatives
Alternatives with unequal lives: Beware
Capitalized Cost Analysis
Require knowledge of the discount rate
before we conduct the analysis

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5.2 PRESENT WORTH: Equal Lives

Present Worth of Equal Lived


Alternatives – straightforward

Compute the Present Worth of each


alternative and select the best, i.e.,
smallest if cost and largest if profit.

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5.2 Equal Lives – Straightforward!

Given two or more alternatives with


equal lives….
Alt. 1

Alt. 2 N = for all


alternatives

Alt. N

Find PW(i%) for each alternative then compare

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5.2 PRESENT WORTH: Example

Consider: Machine A Machine B


First Cost $2,500 $3,500
Annual Operating Cost 900 700
Salvage Value 200 350
Life 5 years 5 years

i = 10% per year

Which alternative should we select?

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5.2 PRESENT WORTH: Cash Flow Diagram


F5=$200
MA

0 1 2 3 4 5

A = $900
$2,500
F5=$200
MB

0 1 2 3 4 5

$3,500 A = $700
Which alternative should we select?

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5.2 PRESENT WORTH: Solving

PA = 2,500 + 900 (P|A, .10, 5) –


200 (P|F, .01, 5)
= 2,500 + 900 (3.7908) - 200 (.6209)
= 2,500 + 3,411.72 - 124.18 = $5,788

PB = 3,500 + 700 (P|A, .10, 5) –


350 (P|F, .10, 5)
= 3,500 + 2,653.56 - 217.31 = $5,936
SELECT MACHINE A: Lower PW cost!

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5.3 PRESENT WORTH: Different Lives

Present Worth of Alternatives with


Different Lives

Comparison must be made over equal


time periods

 Compare over the least common multiple,


LCM, for their lives

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5.3 PRESENT WORTH: Unequal Lives

Present Worth of Alternatives with


Different Lives
Remember – if the lives of the
alternatives are not equal, one must
create or force a study period where
the life is the same for all of the
alternatives

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5.3 Present Worth with Unequal Lives: The Rule

In an analysis one cannot effectively


compare the PW of one alternative with
a study period different from another
alternative that does not have the same
study period.
This is a basic rule!

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5.3 PRESENT WORTH: Lowest Common


Multiple of Lives

If the alternatives have different study


periods, you find the lowest common
life for all of the alternatives in
question.
Example: {3,4, and 6} years. The
lowest common life is 12 years.
Evaluate all over 12 years for a PW
analysis.

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5.3 PRESENT WORTH: Example Unequal


Lives

EXAMPLE
Machine A Machine B
First Cost $11,000 $18,000
Annual Operating Cost 3,500 3,100
Salvage Value 1,000 2,000
Life 6 years 9 years

i = 15% per year


Note: Where costs dominate a problem it is customary to assign a
positive value to cost and negative to inflows

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5.3 PRESENT WORTH: Example Unequal


Lives

A common mistake is to
compute the present
worth of the 6-year
project and compare it to
the present worth of the
9-year project.
NO! NO! NO!

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5.3 PRESENT WORTH: Unequal Lives

Machine A F6=$1,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

A 1-6
=$3,500 F6=$2,000
$11,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A 1-9
Machine B
=$3,100

i = 15% per year


$18,000
LCM(6,9) = 18 year study period will apply for present worth

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5.3 Unequal Lives: 2 Alternatives

Machine A
6 years 6 years 6 years

Cycle 1 for A Cycle 2 for A Cycle 3 for A

Machine B
9 years 9 years

Cycle 1 for B Cycle 2 for B

18 years

i = 15% per year


LCM(6,9) = 18 year study period will apply for present worth

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5.3 Example: Unequal Lives Solving

LCM = 18 years

Calculate the present worth of a 6-year cycle


for A

PA = 11,000 + 3,500 (P|A, .15, 6) –


1,000 (P|F, .15, 6)
= 11,000 + 3,500 (3.7845) – 1,000 (.4323)
= $23,813, which occurs at time 0, 6 and 12

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5.3 Example: Unequal Lives

Machine A

0 6 12 18

$23,813 $23,813 $23,813

PA= 23,813+23,813 (P|F, .15, 6)+


23,813 (P|F, .15, 12)
= 23,813 + 10,294 + 4,451 = 38,558

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5.3 Unequal Lives Example: Machine B

Calculate the Present Worth of a 9-year


cycle for B
F6=$2,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A 1-9
=$3,100

$18,000

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5.3 9-Year Cycle for B

Calculate the Present Worth of a 9-year cycle


for B
PB = 18,000+3,100(P|A, .15, 9) –
1,000(P|F, .15, 9)
= 18,000 + 3,100(4.7716) - 1,000(.2843)
= $32,508 which occurs at time 0 and 9

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5.3 Alternative B – 2 Cycles


Machine A: PW =$38,558

0 9 18

$32,508 $32,508

PB = 32,508 + 32,508 (P|F, .15, 9)


= 32,508 + 32,508(.2843)
PB = $41,750
Choose Machine A
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5.3 Unequal Lives – Assumed Study


Period

Study Period Approach


 Assume alternative: 1 with a 5-year life
 Alternative: 2 with a 7-year life

Alt-1: N = 5 yrs LCM = 35 yrs

Alt-2: N= 7 yrs

Could assume a study period of, say, 5 years.

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5.3 Unequal Lives – Assumed Study


Period

Assume a 5-yr. Study period


Estimate a salvage value for the 7-year
project at the end of t = 5
Truncate the 7-yr project to 5 years

Alt-1: N = 5 yrs Now, evaluate both


over 5 years using
Alt-2: N= 7 yrs the PW method!

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5.4 FUTURE WORTH APPROACH

FW(i%) is an extension of the present


worth method
Compound all cash flows forward in
time to some specified time period
using (F/P), (F/A),… factors or,
Given P, the F = P(1+i)N

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5.4 Applications of Future Worth

Projects that do not come on line until


the end of the investment period
 Commercial Buildings
 Marine Vessels
 Power Generation Facilities
 Public Works Projects
Key – long time periods involving
construction activities

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5.4 Future Worth Example (Figure 5.3)

See Example 5.3


Calculate the Future Worth of
determining the selling price in order to
earn exactly 25% on the investment
Draw the cash-flow diagram!!

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST

CAPITALIZED COST- the present worth


of a project that lasts forever.
Government Projects
Roads, Dams, Bridges (projects that
possess perpetual life)
Infinite analysis period

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5.5 Derivation for Capitalized Cost

Start with the closed form for the P/A factor

 (1  i )  1  N
P  A N 
 i (1  i ) 
Next, let N approach infinity and divide the
numerator and denominator by (1+i)N

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5.5 Derivation - Continued

Dividing by (1+i)N yields


 1 
1 
 (1  i ) N 
P  A 
 i 
 
Now, let n approach infinity and the
right hand side reduces to….

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5.5 Derivation - Continued

1  A
P  A  
i  i
Or,
CC(i%) = A/i

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST

Assume you are called on to maintain a


cemetery site forever if the interest rate
= 4% and $50/year is required to
maintain the site.

1 2 3 4 5 .. ………………….. N=inf.

A=$50/yr

P=?
Find the PW of an infinite annuity flow

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST


P0 = A[P/A,i%,N]

1 2 3 4 5 ..
………………….. N=inf.

A=$50/yr

Find the PW of an infinite annuity flow


P=?

 (1  i ) N  1 
P  A N 
, let N  
 i (1  i ) 
P0=A(1/i)
 (1  i )  1  1 N
lim N   N 

 i (1  i )  i
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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST

P0 = $50[1/0.04]
P0 = $50[25] = $1,250.00
Invest $1,250 into an account that
earns 4% per year will yield $50 of
interest forever if the fund is not
touched and the i-rate stays constant.

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST: Endowments

Assume a wealthy donor wants to endow a


chair in an engineering department.
The fund should supply the department with
$200,000 per year for a deserving faculty
member.
How much will the donor have to come up
with to fund this chair if the interest rate =
8%/yr.

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST: Endowed Chair

The department needs $200,000 per year.

P = $200,000/0.08 = $2,500,000

If $2,500,000 is invested at 8% then the


interest per year = $200,000

The $200,000 is transferred to the department,


but the principal sum stays in the investment to
continue to generate the required $200,000

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5.5 Capitalized Cost Example

EXAMPLE
Calculate the Capitalized Cost of a
project that has an initial cost of
$150,000. The annual operating cost is
$8,000 for the first 4 years and $5000
thereafter. There is an recurring
$15,000 maintenance cost each 15
years. Interest is 15% per year.

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5.5 Cash Flow Diagram

“i”=15%/YR

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 15 30 ………

$4,000
$8,000
$15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000
$150,000
N=

How much $$ at t = 0 is required to fund this


project?
The capitalized cost is the total amount of $ at t
= 0, when invested at the interest rate, will
provide annual interest that covers the future
needs of the project.

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST - Example


Continued

1. Consider $4,000 of the $8,000 cost


for the first four years to be a one-time
cost, leaving a $4,000 annual operating
cost forever.
P0= 150,000 + 4,000 (P|A, .15, 4) =
2.855

$161,420

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST - Continued

Recurring annual cost is $4,000 plus the


equivalent annual of the 15,000 end-of-
cycle cost.

…….
0 15 30 45 60 ……..

Take any 15-year period and find the equivalent


annuity for that period using the F/A factor.

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST: One Cycle

Take any 15-year period and find the equivalent


annuity for that period using the F/A factor

…….
0 15 30 45 60 ……..

$15,000

A for a 15-year period

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST

2. Recurring annual cost is $4,000 plus


the equivalent annual of the 15,000
end-of-cycle cost.
A= 4,000 + 15,000 (A|F, .15, 15)
= 4,000 + 15000 (.0210) = $5,315
Recurring costs = $5,315/i =
5,315/0.15 =$3,443/yr

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5.5 CAPITALIZED COST

Capitalized Cost = 161,420 + 5315/.15


= $196,853
Thus, if one invests $196,853 at time t
= 0, then the interest at 15% will
supply the end-of-year cash flow to
fund the project so long as the principal
sum is not reduced or the interest rate
changes (drops).

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5.6 Payback Period Analysis

Two forms for this method


 Discounted Payback Period (uses an interest
rate)
 Conventional Payback Period (does not use
an interest rate)
Payback is the period of time it takes for
the cash flows to recover the initial
investment.

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5.6 Payback Period Analysis

Discounted Payback Approach


Find the value of np such that:
t np
0   P   NCFt ( P / F , i, t )
t 1

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5.6 Payback Period Analysis - Example

Example 5.8 i = 15%

Machine 1: N=7

Machine 2: N=14

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5.6 Payback Period Analysis - Example 5.8


Tabular Format: Machine 1

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5.6 Payback Period Analysis- Machine A

Payback
is
between
6 and 7
yeas
(6.57 yrs)

PW(15%)= +$481.00

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5.6 Non-Discounted Analysis – Machine A

At a “0”
interest rate
the PB time
is seen to
equal 4
years!

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5.6 Payback for Machine B at 15%, N = 14 yrs

Payback for B is
between 9 and
10 years!
Longer time
period to
recover the
investment.

9.52 years

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5.6 Payback at “0”% for Machine B

Payback for B at
0% is 6 years!

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5.6 Payback for Example 5.8

Discounted
 Machine A: 6.57 years
 Machine B: 9.52 years
Undiscounted
 Machine A: 4.0 years
 Machine B: 6.0 years
Go with Machine A – lower time period
payback to recover the original
investment

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5.6 Payback Method Summarized

Payback is only a rough estimator of


desirability
Use as an initial screening method
Avoid using this method as a primary
analysis technique for selection projects
Totally avoid the no-return payback
period

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5.6 Payback Method Summarized

The “No-return” method


 Does not employ the time value of money
 Disregards all cash flows past the payback
time period
 If used, can lead to conflicting selections
when compared to more technically correct
methods like present worth!

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5.7 Life Cycle Costs (LCC)

Extension of the Present Worth method


Used for projects over their entire life
span where cost estimates are
employed
Used for:
 Military/Defense Projects
 New Product Lines
 Large construction projects

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5.7 Life Cycle Defined – Detailed Phases

Needs Assessment Phase


Conceptual Design Phase
Detailed Design Phase
Production/Construction Phase
Operation – (upgrading to extend)
Phase
Retirement/Disposal Phase
The life can be for years into the future

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5.7 Life Cycle: Two General Phases

Cost-$
Cumulative Life Cycle
Costs

Acquisition Phase Operation Phase


TIME

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5.7 Life-Cycle Costs: Impact of Design


Changes

Cost of a design change tends to


multiply by 10 with each phase
Any design changes that might occur
late in the life cycle drastically increase
the total life cycle costs!

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5.7 Life-Cycle Costs: Acquisition Phase


Rule: About 80% of LCC are locked in
by the end of the Acquisition Phase.
Emphasis is on good design!

Costs - $

Needs Assessment Conceptual Design Detailed Design

Acquisition Phase

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5.7 Life-Cycle Costs – Purpose

Make explicit as possible the


relationship of costs over the total life
span of a product/system
Design Process Objective
 Minimize the life-cycle costs
 And meet other performance requirements
 By making correct trade-offs between costs
in the acquisition phase and costs during
the operations phase

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5.7 Life-Cycle Costs – Warning

Beware of introducing certain cost-


cutting measures in the acquisition
phase and early production phase
Such cost-cutting measures could
impact the future operations and
degrade safety or require modifications
later on
These cost-cutting measures can be
misleading and dangerous!

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5.7 Life-Cycle Costs – Warning

Engineers have a ethical and moral


responsibility to ensure that designs
are:
 Economically sound
 Functional
 Safe
 Perform as expected

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5.8 Present Worth of Bonds

Bonds represent a source of funds for


the firm.
Bonds are sold (floated) by investment
banks for firms in order to raise
additional debt capital
A bond is similar to an IOU
Bonds are evidence of Debt

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5.8 Bond Types – Treasury Bonds

Treasury bonds
 Issued by Federal Government
 Full backing of the Government
 1 year or less; 2-10 year issues; and 10-30
year issues
 Conservative-type investment

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5.8 Bond Types – Municipal Bonds

State and Municipal Bonds


 Issued by states and local governments
 Generally tax-exempt by the Federal
Government
 Used to finance state and local projects
 Backed by future tax and user fees to pay
the interest and face value

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5.8 Bond Types – Mortgage Bonds

Mortgage Bonds
 Issued by Corporations
 Secured by the firm’s assets
 Money received by the firm is used to fund
projects
 Referred to a Debt Capital
 Buyers of these bonds are not owners – they
are lenders to the firm

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5.8 Bond Types – Debentures

Debenture Bond
 Issued by Corporations
 Not backed by specific assets
 Backing – good faith of the firm
 Pays higher interest rates
 Higher risks involved
 Bond interest rate may “float”
 Could be convertible to common stock

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5.8 Present Worth of Bonds – Overview

Investment Bankers

The Firm Sell the Bonds to


The lending public
Commissions/Fees

Proceeds from
The sale
Bondholders

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5.8 Bonds – Basics

Bonds are negotiable instruments


Can be traded by the current
bondholder
Source of funds to the firm
Debt capital
Bondholders are loaning $$ to the firm
Earn periodic interest
Sell the bonds at any time

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5.8 Bonds – Firm’s View

Firm authorizes a bond sale


Bonds are sold by an outside agency
Firm pays a commission to the selling
agency
The firm receives the proceeds from the
sale
This is now DEBT capital to the firm

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5.8 Bond Basics – Continued

The bondholders are not owners


They are lendors
The firm pays periodic interest
payments to the current bond holders
At the end of the bond’s life, the bonds
are redeemed (bought back) from the
current bond holder

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5.8 Bond Basics - Continued

The bond itself is just a piece of paper


Evidence of the debt the firm has
incurred
The firm may be able to “call” the bonds
back by paying the current bondholder a
calculated sum

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5.8 Bonds – Notation

P0 – The time t = 0 selling price of the


bond – the cost to the buyer of the bond
V – The face value of the bond
 The value printed on the bond
 Face values are usually:
 $100, $1,000, $5,000, $10,000 increments

N – The life of the bond in years


r – The nominal annual bond interest
rate

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5.8 Bonds – Notation and Example

Given the nominal annual bond interest


rate, the payment frequency of the
interest (monthly, quarterly semi-
annually, etc.) is also stated
Example:
 V = $5,000 (face value)
 r = 4.5% per year paid semiannually
 N = 10 years

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5.8 Bonds – Example – Continued

The interest the firm would pay to the


current bondholder is calculated as:

0.045
I  $5, 000( )  $5, 000(0.0225)
2
I  $112.50 every 6 months
The bondholder, buys the bond and will receive
$112.50 every 6 months for the life of the bond

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5.8 Bonds – Example 5.11

Given
 V = $10,000 (Face value of the bond)
 r = 4.5% paid semiannually
 N = 10 years or 20 interest periods
 $I/6 months = $5,000(0.045/2) = $112.50
paid to the current bondholder

Bonds are bought at sold in a bond market. Thus


the price of the bond is subject to the pressures of
the bond market.

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5.8 Example 5.11

Key Point – The purchase price of the


bond can be considered a value that is
determined by a willing buyer and a
willing seller.
Assume the potential buyer of this bond
requires a interest rate of no less than
8%/year compounded quarterly.

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5.8 Example 5.11 – Continued

The purchaser will consider this bond if


he/she can earn 8%/yr c.q.
What is fixed?
 The future interest payments are fixed
 The future face value of the bond in fixed
What can vary?
 The purchase price such that the buyer can
earn at least the 8%/yr c.q.

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5.8 Example 5.1 – Continued

8% c.q is the same as


 0.08/4 = 0.02 = 2% per quarter.
 Bond interest flows every 6 months
 Need an effective 6-month rate
 The effective 6-month rate is then
 (1.02)2 – 1 – 0.0404 = 4.04%/6 months
 This is the potential buyer’s required
interest rate

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5.8 Example 5.11 – Solving

The objective is to determine the


purchase price of this bond discounted
at the buyer’s required rate of 4.04%
per 6 months
Draw the cash-flow diagram
Work the problem with N = 20 (not 10)
 We have 20 interest payments (every 6
months) = 10 years

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5.8 Example 5.11 – Cash-Flow Diagram


$5,000

i=4.04%/6 months
A = 112.50/6 months

0 1 2 3 4 …. ….. 19 20

Find the PW(4.04%) of the future cash


P=?? flows to the potential bond buyer

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5.8 Example 5.11 – Solving

P = $112.50(P/A,4.04%,20)
+ $5,000(P/F,2%,40)
P = $3,788
IF the buyer can buy this bond for
$3,788 or less, he/she will earn at least
the 8% c.q. rate.

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Summary: Present Worth

• Present Worth is the basic analysis approach


for most engineering economy studies.
• It also forms a basis for the Internal Rate of
Return method to be presented later
• Requires knowledge of the discount rate as part
of the analysis

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Summary: Present Worth

• PW represents a family of methods


• Annual worth
• Future Worth
• Capitalized Cost
• Life-cycle cost analysis – application
• Bond Problems – application

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End of Chapter 5 Lecture Set

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