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Economic & Housing Market Outlook

By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.


Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®

Presentations to NAR Annual Conference


Boston, MA

November 2, 2018
5000000
5100000
5200000
5300000
5400000
5500000
5600000
5700000
2016 - Jan 5800000
2016 - Feb
2016 - Mar
2016 - Apr
2016 - May
2016 - Jun
2016 - Jul
2016 - Aug
2016 - Sep
2016 - Oct
2016 - Nov
2016 - Dec
2017 - Jan
2017 - Feb
2017 - Mar
2017 - Apr
2017 - May
2017 - Jun
2017 - Jul
2017 - Aug
Since 2016

2017 - Sep
2017 - Oct
2017 - Nov
2017 - Dec
Existing Home Sales

2018 - Jan
2018 - Feb
2018 - Mar
2018 - Apr
2018 - May
2018 - Jun
2018 - Jul
2018 - Aug
2018 - Sep
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
6000000
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
Since 2009

2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
Existing Home Sales

2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
2018 - Jul
500
550
600
650
700
750
2016 - Jan
2016 - Feb
2016 - Mar In thousands
2016 - Apr
2016 - May
2016 - Jun
2016 - Jul
2016 - Aug
2016 - Sep
2016 - Oct
2016 - Nov
2016 - Dec
2017 - Jan
2017 - Feb
2017 - Mar
2017 - Apr
2017 - May
2017 - Jun
2017 - Jul
2017 - Aug
Since 2016

2017 - Sep
2017 - Oct
2017 - Nov
New Home Sales

2017 - Dec
2018 - Jan
2018 - Feb
2018 - Mar
2018 - Apr
2018 - May
2018 - Jun
2018 - Jul
2018 - Aug
2018 - Sep
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800

0
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct In thousands
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
Since 2009

2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
New Home Sales

2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
2018 - Jul
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
2016 - Jan
2016 - Feb
2016 - Mar
2016 - Apr
2016 - May
2016 - Jun
2016 - Jul
2016 - Aug
2016 - Sep
2016 - Oct
2016 - Nov
2016 - Dec
2017 - Jan
2017 - Feb
2017 - Mar
2017 - Apr
2017 - May
2017 - Jun
2017 - Jul
2017 - Aug
2017 - Sep
2017 - Oct
2017 - Nov
2017 - Dec
2018 - Jan
2018 - Feb
Wobbly Stock Market?

2018 - Mar
2018 - Apr
2018 - May
2018 - Jun
2018 - Jul
Dow Jones Industrial Average Since 2016

2018 - Aug
2018 - Sep
2019 - Oct
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000

0
5000
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
Wobbly Stock Market?

2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2009

2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
2018 - Jul
2019 - Oct
Total Home Sales in 2018: Plunging?
2017 2018 Year-to-Date
The Best in Decade (over comparable period)

New Home Sales 613,000 +3.6%

Existing Home Sales 5,510,000 -2.1%

Total 6,123,000 -1.5%


150 Metro Prices
• 90% with Price Gains
• 10% with Price Declines

• Lower-end … Stronger Price Gains


• Upper-end … Weaker Price Gains or Price Cuts

• Near Downtown … Stronger Price Gains


• Distant Suburbs and Rural Areas … Softer Gains
Prices Rising and Rising
100
200
300
400
500
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
(Constant Quality Index)
Rising Home Prices
San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Dallas

2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2014 - Q1
2015 - Q1
2016 - Q1
2017 - Q1
2018 - Q1
Housing Wealth Gain on a Typical Home Purchase
Year Bought Median Price at the Wealth Gain to 2018
Time of Purchase (September)
(September)
2011 $165,300 $92,800
2012 $178,300 $79,800

2013 $198,500 $59,600

2014 $209,100 $49,000


2015 $221,700 $36,400

2016 $233,300 $24,800


Wealth: From 2000 to 2016 to 2018
$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

Renters Homeowners
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000

0
5000
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q3
2001 - Q1 In $billion
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q3
2007 - Q1
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q1
2008 - Q3
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q3
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q3
2013 - Q1
2013 - Q3
2014 - Q1
2014 - Q3
2015 - Q1
2015 - Q3
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q3
2017 - Q1
2017 - Q3
2018 - Q1
Real Estate Wealth = Asset - Mortgage
New Bubble? Small One?
10.0
15.0
20.0

-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
0.0
5.0

-5.0
2009 - Jan
2009 - May
2009 - Sep
2010 - Jan
2010 - May
2010 - Sep
2011 - Jan
2011 - May
2011 - Sep
2012 - Jan
2012 - May
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
2013 - Sep
2014 - Jan
2014 - May
(year over year % growth)

2014 - Sep
2015 - Jan
Red outpaced Blue since 2012

2015 - May
2015 - Sep
Rent Growth From 2012

2016 - Jan
2016 - May
2016 - Sep
2017 - Jan
2017 - May
2017 - Sep
2018 - Jan
A New Bubble? Since Home Prices Outpaced

2018 - May
2018 - Sep
Diminished Optimism about Buying
NAR Survey of Consumers
% Strongly indicating Good Time to Buy
50

45

40

35

30
2016 - Q1 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4 2017 - Q1 2017 - Q2 2017 - Q3 2017 - Q4 2018 - Q1 2018 - Q2 2018 - Q3
National Pending Sales Index
(seasonally adjusted)
116.0
114.0
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
2016 - 2016 - 2016 - 2016 - 2017 - 2017 - 2017 - 2017 - 2018 - 2018 - 2018 -
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Source: NAR
Increased Consideration to Sell
NAR Survey of Consumers
% Strongly indicating Good Time to Sell
60

50

40

30

20
2016 - Q1 2016 - Q2 2016 - Q3 2016 - Q4 2017 - Q1 2017 - Q2 2017 - Q3 2017 - Q4 2018 - Q1 2018 - Q2 2018 - Q3
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul

Source: NAR
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
Inventory of Homes Finally Turning Higher

2018 - Jul
REALTORS® Report on Buyer and Seller Traffic
REALTOR® Buyer Traffic Index REALTOR® Seller Traffic Index
80 70 72
67
70 63 63
60 57
60 53 54
50 46 43 44 45 44 45 44
41 39 39 42 41
40 40
31 34
30
20
10
0

Jul-Sep
Apri-Jun
Jan-Mar
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index
HOTTEST MARKETS
Midland, Texas still number one; Midwest dominates list; California hot but cooling

October 2018
Source: Realtor.com®

2
© 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute.
4
CROSS-MARKET DEMAND
Sacramento, CA shoppers come from Alameda and Santa Clara (Bay Area/Silicon Valley)

© 2018 Move, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy or distribute.


Months Supply and Price Change
Inverse Relationship
If Months Supply >7 then Price Decline
20 14

15 12
10
10
5
8
0
2000 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 - Jan 2014 - Jan 2016 - Jan 2018 - Jan 6
-5
4
-10

-15 2

-20 0

Price Change Months Supply


Housing Conditions in 2004 and 2018
Comparison of Housing Market Conditions in 2004 and 2018
2004 2018

Housing market indicators:

Housing starts, SAAR (millions) 1.9 (Jan 2004) 1.2 (Aug 2018)
Existing homes available for sale, EOP (millions) 2.15 (Jan 2004) 1.88 (Sep 2018)
Months' supply 4.3 (Jan 2004) 4.4 (Sep 2018)
30-year fixed mortgage rate (%) 5.74 (Jan 2004) 4.63 (Sep 2018)
Median price of existing home sales, y/y change (%) 7.6 (Jan 2004) 4.2 (Sep 2018)

Rental vacancy rate (%) 10.4 (2004 Q1) 6.8 (2018 Q2)
Homeowner vacancy rate (%) 1.7 (2004 Q1) 1.5 (2018 Q2)
Homeownership rate (%) 68 (2004 Q1) 64.3 (2018 Q2)

Labor market indicators:

Unemployment rate (%) 5.6 (Jan 2004) 3.7 (Aug 2018)


Total non-farm employment, SA (millions) 130.7 (Jan 2004) 149.5 (Aug 2018)
Housing Conditions in 2004 and 2018 - Continued
Comparison of Housing Market Conditions in 2004 and 2018
2004 2018

Household debt and bank credit indicators:

ARMs, as a percent of loan applications (%) 28.8 (Jan 2004) 6.5 (Sep 2018)
Home equity revolving accounts (millions) 16.7 (Jan 2004) 15.6 (Aug 2018)
Mortgage originations with credit score < 620 (billion $) 79.3 (2004 Q1) 16.1 (2018 Q2)

Households and non-profit organizations mortgage (Tril $) 7.09 (2004 Q1) 10.2 (2018 Q2)
Households and non-profit organizations mortgage to GDP (%) 59 (2004 Q1) 50 (2018 Q2)
Household debt service ratio (%) 12.2 (2004 Q1) 9.8 (2018 Q2)
Mortgage, credit card, and bank loan to disposable income (%) 105.0 (2004 Q1) 93.0 (2018 Q2)
Mortgage debt to disposable income (%) 81.0 (2004 Q1) 66.0 (2018 Q2)

Mortgages in foreclosure inventory 490,708 (2004 Q1) 402,540 (2018 Q2)


Foreclosure inventory as a percent of loans (%) 1.3 (2004 Q1) 1.1 (2018 Q2)

Commercial bank loan to deposit ratio (%) 90.4 (Jan 2004) 76.9 (Sep 2018)
Data sources: National Association of Realtors ®, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Freddie Mac,
U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mortgage Bankers Association, with data downloaded from Haver Analytics.
50
100
150
200
2000 - Jan
2000 - Aug 250
2001 - Mar

Source: NAR
2001 - Oct
2002 - May
2002 - Dec
2003 - Jul
2004 - Feb
2004 - Sep
2005 - Apr
2005 - Nov
2006 - Jun
2007 - Jan
2007 - Aug
2008 - Mar
2008 - Oct
2009 - May
2009 - Dec
2010 - Jul
2011 - Feb
2011 - Sep
2012 - Apr
2012 - Nov
Affordability Index

2013 - Jun
2014 - Jan
2014 - Aug
2015 - Mar
2015 - Oct
Weakest in 10 years, but well above 2004

2016 - May
2016 - Dec
2017 - Jul
2018 - Feb
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
2014 - Jul
(Within two arrows with 1% and 2% above CPI)

2015 - Jan
2015 - Jul
2016 - Jan
2016 - Jul
2017 - Jan
2017 - Jul
2018 - Jan
Inflation-Adjusted Home Price Index
100
120

0
20
40
60
80
2011 - May
2011 - Aug
2011 - Nov
2012 - Feb
2012 - May
2012 - Aug
2012 - Nov
2013 - Feb
2013 - May
2013 - Aug
2013 - Nov
2014 - Feb
2014 - May
2014 - Aug
2014 - Nov
2015 - Feb
2015 - May
2015 - Aug
2015 - Nov
2016 - Feb
2016 - May
2016 - Aug
2016 - Nov
2017 - Feb
Median Days on Market

2017 - May
2017 - Aug
2017 - Nov
2018 - Feb
2018 - May
2018 - Aug
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2016 - Jan
2016 - Feb
2016 - Mar
2016 - Apr
2016 - May
2016 - Jun
2016 - Jul
2016 - Aug
2016 - Sep
2016 - Oct
2016 - Nov
2016 - Dec
2017 - Jan
2017 - Feb
2017 - Mar
2017 - Apr
2017 - May
2017 - Jun
2017 - Jul
2017 - Aug
2017 - Sep
2017 - Oct
2017 - Nov
2017 - Dec
2018 - Jan
2018 - Feb
2018 - Mar
2018 - Apr
2018 - May
2018 - Jun
% of Offers At or Above Asking Price

2018 - Jul
2018 - Aug
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan 6 2017
Jan 27 2017
Feb 17 2017
Mar 10 2017
Mar 31 2017
Apr 21 2017
May 12 2017
Jun 2 2017
Jun 23 2017
Jul 14 2017
Aug 4 2017
Aug 25 2017
Sep 15 2017
Oct 6 2017
Purchase
Oct 27 2017
Nov 17 2017
Dec 8 2017
Dec 29 2017
Jan 19 2018
Refinance

Feb 9 2018
% change from one year ago

Mar 2 2018
Mar 23 2018
Apr 13 2018
Though Refinancings Collapsing

May 4 2018
May 25 2018
Jun 15 2018
Jul 6 2018
Jul 27 2018
Aug 17 2018
Mortgage Applications for Home Purchase is Positive,

Sep 7 2018
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q3
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q3
2007 - Q1
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q1
2008 - Q3
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q3
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q3
2013 - Q1
2013 - Q3
2014 - Q1
2014 - Q3
2015 - Q1
Early Stage of Delinquency:

2015 - Q3
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q3
2017 - Q1
Late Mortgage Payment (30 to 59 days)

2017 - Q3
2018 - Q1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q3
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q3
2007 - Q1
2007 - Q3
2008 - Q1
2008 - Q3
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2010 - Q3
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q3
2012 - Q1
In Foreclosure

2012 - Q3
2013 - Q1
2013 - Q3
2014 - Q1
2014 - Q3
2015 - Q1
Last Stage of Delinquency:

2015 - Q3
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q3
2017 - Q1
2017 - Q3
2018 - Q1
Homeowners
79
In millions
77
75
73
71
69
67
65
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
- Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1
Renters
46
In millions
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
- Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5

-0.5
2009 - Jan
2009 - May
2009 - Sep
2010 - Jan
2010 - May
2010 - Sep
2011 - Jan
2011 - May
2011 - Sep
2012 - Jan
2012 - May
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
2013 - Sep
2014 - Jan
2014 - May
(year over year % growth)

2014 - Sep
2015 - Jan
2015 - May
2015 - Sep
2016 - Jan
2016 - May
2016 - Sep
2017 - Jan
2017 - May
2017 - Sep
2018 - Jan
Rent Growth Solid but now Slowing?

2018 - May
2018 - Sep
Global Comparison:
Canada and New Zealand at Risk?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 - Jan
2010 - May
2010 - Sep
2011 - Jan
2011 - May
2011 - Sep
2012 - Jan
2012 - May
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
2013 - Sep
2014 - Jan
2014 - May
2014 - Sep
2015 - Jan
2015 - May
2015 - Sep
2016 - Jan
2016 - May
2016 - Sep
2017 - Jan
2017 - May
Mortgage Rates to Rise Permanently

2017 - Sep
2018 - Jan
2018 - May
(around 170 basis points spread above 10 year Treasury)

2018 - Sep
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
The Fed … “Gone Crazy”

2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
Fed Funds Rate … from zero to …

2018 - Jan
2018 - Apr
2018 - Jul
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0

-1.0
2010 - Jan
2010 - May
2010 - Sep
2011 - Jan
2011 - May
2011 - Sep
2012 - Jan
2012 - May
2012 - Sep
2013 - Jan
2013 - May
2013 - Sep
Core

2014 - Jan
2014 - May
CPI

2014 - Sep
2015 - Jan
(year over year % growth)

2015 - May
2015 - Sep
2016 - Jan
2016 - May
2016 - Sep
2017 - Jan
2017 - May
Consumer Inflation Stabilizing

2017 - Sep
2018 - Jan
2018 - May
2018 - Sep
Realtors® Gross Income Distribution
50 %

40
30
20
10
0
Under $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000 $250,000 Over
$25000 $250000
Buyers of Multi-Generational Housing
Type of Home Unique to these buyers:
Purchased  Median Age: 51
39% had
 Median Income: $89,500
Detached single-  31% are first-time buyers children under
family, 83%  83% are buyers of previously owned homes the age of 18
Townhouse/row in the home
house, 5%  84% bought through an agent/broker
Duplex/apartment/  Median square feet of home purchased: 2,070
condo, 4%  Median home price: $264,100
58% found the
Other, 8% quality of the
neighborhood to
be important
63% were married
Reasons to Purchase Home 12% couples, 19% single
Change in family situation of all respondents females, 7% single
(e.g. marriage, birth of child, 10% males, 5%
divorce, etc.)
unmarried couples
Desire to be closer to
10% 49% were
friends/family/relatives
located in a
suburb/subdivision
Desire for larger home 10% Reasons for purchasing multi-generational home:
 Aging family members: 44%
 Young adults over age 18: 37%
Desire to own a home of
29%
own

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Buyer, Self, or Spouse are Active in the
Armed Forces or Veteran
 Median Age: 31  Median Age: 59
 Median Income: $80,000  Median Income: $89,000
 52% are first-time buyers  19% are first-time buyers
 84% are buyers of previously owned homes  82% are buyers of previously owned homes
 91% bought through an agent/broker  86% bought through an agent/broker
 Median square feet of home purchased: 1,960  Median square feet of home purchased: 1,950
 Median home price: $251,000  Median home price: $250,000

Unique to these buyers: Unique to these buyers:


58% lived in
Convenience to owned home
job influencing prior to their
neighborhood recent home
factor for 60% purchase
24% purchased 15% purchased
because of a 3% 18% a multi-
job-related of all respondents of all respondents generational
relocation or home
move 83% purchased
14% purchased a detached
a multi- single-family
generational home
home
2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
Realtors® Property Ownership
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Non-Owner Homeowner 2nd Home Commercial
Real Estate and Marijuana
• Property management and lingering smell
• Commercial real estate and development
• Medical use and Fair Housing Laws
• Non-bank cold cash and money laundering
Good Economy
• Job Additions for 8 straight years
• Unemployment Rate 3.7%
• Record High Job Openings
• Historically Low Jobless Claims
• High Net Worth
• Wages picking up
Risk Factors
• International Trade Wars

• Inverted Yield Curve

• Shift to Snowballing Pessimism


500
0
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 - Q1
2000 - Q3
4000 In $billion
2001 - Q1
2001 - Q3
2002 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2003 - Q1
2003 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2004 - Q3
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q3
2007 - Q1
2007 - Q3
Imports 2008 - Q1
2008 - Q3
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q3
2010 - Q1
Exports

2010 - Q3
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q3
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q3
2013 - Q1
International Trade

2013 - Q3
2014 - Q1
2014 - Q3
2015 - Q1
2015 - Q3
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q3
(Growing 5% per year, twice as fast as GDP)

2017 - Q1
2017 - Q3
2018 - Q1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 - Jan
1981 - Jan
1982 - Jan
1983 - Jan
1984 - Jan
1985 - Jan
1986 - Jan
1987 - Jan
1988 - Jan
1989 - Jan
1990 - Jan
1991 - Jan
1992 - Jan
1993 - Jan
1994 - Jan
1995 - Jan
1996 - Jan
1997 - Jan
10-year 1998 - Jan
1999 - Jan
2000 - Jan
2001 - Jan
2002 - Jan
2-Year

2003 - Jan
2004 - Jan
2005 - Jan
2006 - Jan
2007 - Jan
2008 - Jan
2009 - Jan
2010 - Jan
Yield Curve Inversion?

2011 - Jan
2012 - Jan
2013 - Jan
2014 - Jan
2015 - Jan
2016 - Jan
2017 - Jan
2018 - Jan
Forecast
National Existing Home Sales
Little Drop in ‘18; Little Gain in ’19 and ‘20
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Forecast of Home Sales: Boring!
Existing Home Sales Newly Constructed Total

2016 5,450,000 561,000 6.0 million


2017 5,510,000 613,000 6.1 million
2018 forecast 5,345,000 623,000 6.0 million
2019 forecast 5,400,000 690,000 6.1 million
2020 forecast 5,550,000 740,000 6.3 million

2000 Reference 5,173,000 877,000 6.1 million


Forecast of Home Price
Median Home Price % change

2016 $233,800 5.1%


2017 $247,200 5.7%
2018 forecast $258,900 4.7%
2019 forecast $266,800 3.1%
2020 forecast $274,000 2.7%
Forecast of Median Home Price:
$15,000 wealth gain in two years
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
REALTORS® Median Expected Price Change
in the Next 12 Months
Forecast Dependent Upon
Rising Single-Family Housing Starts
2000
In thousand units
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Raise Awareness About Housing
Underproduction
Local Solutions to Consider
On Common Ground
Any Common Ground?

Photos from respective Twitter accounts


Any Common Ground?

HUD Funding to localities be tied to YIMBY (not NIMBY)

Housing Trust Funding to localities be tied to YIMBY (not NIMBY)

Photos from respective Twitter accounts


Thank You !