Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Lowering expectations on pre-election year spending
Strategy We find little evidence of increased spending during pre-election years. However,
market participants seem to be excited about the vote buying practice and the
Taye Shim potential increase in subsidies ahead of the upcoming presidential election (April
+62-21-515-3281 2019). We believe consumers are unlikely to be encouraged by the one-off cash
taye.shim@miraeasset.com income, and also judge subsidies are allocated in good faith rather than covered up
Mimi Halimin in politics. We want to lower market expectations.
+62-21-515-1140 (ext.: 237)
mimi.halimin@miraeasset.co.id Consumption behavior is shifting
Christine Natasya We disagree with the notion that Indonesians are living day-by-day. Given the
+62-21-515-1140 (ext.: 233) continued improvement in the education level, we now believe Indonesians have
natasya@miraeasset.co.id better understanding of the economy and expect a shift towards prudent and
selective spending patterns. E-commerce penetration is gaining pace and we
Emma A. Fauni
+62-21-515-1140 (ext.: 141) expect to see gradual spillover of price decline in the offline retailer space. All in all,
emma.fauni@miraeasset.co.id consumers will be able to take advantage of the low-price environment.
2,500
100
2,000
99
1,500
98
1,000
500 97
1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Indonesia but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
October 19, 2018 Consumer Strategy
C O N T E N T S
Executive summary 3
Balance of positives and negatives 3
Shifting Indonesia’s consumption behavior 3
Industry discussions 4
Valuations and recommendations 4
Key Recommendations 34
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ) 36
Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) 38
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) 40
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP IJ) 42
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ) 44
Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI IJ) 46
Executive summary
The consumer index embeds strong correlation with the composite leading
indicator (CLI) – which is currently positioned in the negative territory. However,
based on our assessment of the key components of the CLI, we are inclined to
believe that the economy is unexciting at this point and unlikely to exhibit an
imminent rebound from here.
The composite leading indicator is heading into its 12 consecutive month of decline.
Given the past 4 down cycles had an average duration of 10.5 months, we suspect
that the decline could be nearing its end. We see low probability of an immediate
trend reversal; however, we equally view current economic conditions worsening
further from here.
Indonesia’s presidential election is just around the corner (April 2019) and market
participants seem to be excited about the nation’s consumption outlook. There are
two reasons behind the excitement – 1) vote buying practice and 2) increased
subsidies. However, we suspect that vote buying has limited impact on the mid-to-
long term spending intentions as they are considered unsustainable. Further,
increased subsidies are allocated in good faith, rather than covered up with politics,
in our view.
We think Indonesian consumers are now smarter and we disagree with the notion
that Indonesians are living day-by-day. Given the continued improvement in the
education level, we now believe Indonesians have better understanding of the
economy and thus are able to plan out their long-term financial objectives. We
expect a shift in consumption towards prudent and selective spending patterns.
Industry discussions
Consumer (Neutral): Consumer players are experiencing slower growth driven by
1) slower recovery of consumers’ purchasing intention and 2) shifting consumers’
spending behavior (e.g., demand shift to non-FMCG products/ services such as
travelling, etc.). We are also witnessing higher competition within the consumption
space. We remain less excited about government’s increased budget on social
spending as it would place limited impact on the decision making of consumption.
We downgrade our recommendations on the consumer industry to Neutral.
Poultry (Neutral): We retain our Neutral call on the poultry sector as we see fair
balance of positives and negatives. We believe there may be pockets of further
improvement to chicken prices. However, risk factors including the prolonged
depreciation of the rupiah, rising interest rates, and slower-than-expected
purchasing intention recovery to act as stiff headwinds for the sector.
Figure 1. Consumer index shows strong correlation with the composite leading indicator
(pt) (pt)
Consumer index (L) OECD Leading Index, SA (R)
3,000 101
2,500
100
2,000
99
1,500
98
1,000
500 97
1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18
(IDRtr) (%)
Private consumption % of total GDP
5,600 100
5,400 90
80
5,200
70
5,000 60
4,800 54.3 54.3 50
54.2 54.3 54.3
4,600 40
30
4,400
20
4,200 10
4,000 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Over the past 7 consecutive months, Indonesia has been positioned in the lower
left quadrant in the business cycle exhibiting sluggish business growth trends.
What is notable to highlight is that the business cycle stepped into the upper left
quadrant (decreasing above average growth trend) on November 2017 and entered
the lower left quadrant (decreasing below average growth trend) in just 2 months.
This is in contrast to the favorable growth cycle (increasing above average growth
trend) that was sustained 9 months from February 2017 through November 2017.
The trade dispute between US and China has sparked concerns over the global
growth trajectory and investors began to de-risk their investment portfolios.
Emerging markets that are largely reliant on foreign capital (including Indonesia)
have seen their local currencies depreciate as foreign investors make their exit.
700 2,000 99
35
600 1,000 14,500 97
500 30 0 95
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Research Research Research
CLI vs. stock market (JCI): The two indicators exhibit synchronized trends with
a time lag of 5 months in between. Valuations have come down to attractive
levels (2.2x trailing P/B vs. 10-year historical average of 2.6x), however, we
believe there may be further downside until the index reaches trough valuation
level (2.0x P/B). We believe prevailing uncertainties related to the trade disputes
between US and China are unlikely to be resolved in the near horizon, hence, we
expect the stock market to trend sideways with a downward bias.
CLI vs. policy rate (inverted): Bank Indonesia (BI) has strongly argued that
maintaining the stability of the local currency is a key priority. Given mounting
pressures on the rupiah on the back of gradual rate hikes by the Federal
Reserve, we expect the central bank of Indonesia to follow the Fed’s tightening
path. We project that policy rate trends will add downward pressures to the CLI.
CLI vs. USD/IDR (inverted): The two key drivers that move the FX rates are GDP
growth gap and interest rate gap between the two nations. Notably, US is in its
expansionary cycle while Indonesia is on the opposite end. Further, policy rate
gap has been steadily narrowing as BI has been adopting expansionary
monetary policy settings over the past couple of years while US Fed has been
tightening. Although monetary policy settings are likely to be tightened for
Indonesia, going forward, we argue that the pace of tightening should not meet
expectations as we near the presidential election (April 2019). Further, we
believe foreign investment outflows are likely to add pressure to the FX rate for
time being. All in all, we expect to see continued pressure building on the CLI.
CLI vs. wholesale price index (inverted): The wholesale price index is an
indicator that captures the amount of price changes on levels of major trading
price/ wholesale price of traded commodities (domestically produced, exported,
and imported) within the country. The index is segmented into 5 sectors,
namely 1) agriculture, 2) mining and quarrying, 3) industrial, 4) import and 5)
export. We suspect key drivers of the wholesale price index to be commodity
prices as well as FX rates. Given our commodity analyst’s bullish stance of crude
oil prices as well as continued weakness of the rupiah, we do not expect an
imminent reversal of the trend.
CLI vs. Consumer confidence index: The consumer confidence index (CCI) is
the average of the current economic condition index (CECI) and the consumer
expectation index (CEI). CECI compiles survey results from 1) household income,
2) right time to buy durable goods and 3) unemployment, while CEI surveys 1)
household income, 2) overall economic condition, and 3) unemployment rate.
The CCI has been trading within a boxed range since mid-2017, which
somewhat coincides with the inflection point of the CLI (August 2017). Given the
key components of the CCI are household income (up), spending on durables
(flat), economy (flat), and unemployment rate (down), we expect CCI trend to
remain boxed, going forward.
CLI vs. tourist arrivals: President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) carefully rolled out
reform policies to stimulate tourist visits to Indonesia. Among key policies, the
number of countries under the visa-free program was enlarged from 45 in 2014
to 169 in 2016, driving tourist inflows higher. Further, restrictions on foreign
ownerships in hotels and restaurants were also relaxed to stimulate the inflow.
However, natural disasters – which are beyond regulatory control – such as
continuous volcanic eruptions from Mt. Agung since September 2017, Lombok
earthquake (August 2018) have acted as challenges to reaching President
Jokowi’s tourism agenda.
Figure 7. CLI vs. stock market (JCI) Figure 8. CLS vs. policy rate (inverted)
Source: OECD, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: OECD, BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 9. CLI vs. USD/IDR Figure 10. CLI vs. wholesale price index (inverted)
165
99 15,000 99
98 15,500 98 170
1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18
Source: OECD, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: OECD, BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 11. CLI vs. consumer confidence index Figure 12. CLI vs. tourist arrivals
Thousands
Consumer confidence (R) Tourist arrivals (R) 1,500
101 101
125
1,400
100 100
120 1,300
98 105 98 800
1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18
Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
As discussed earlier, we see low probabilities of the CLI turning the corner. In terms
of the direction of the economic cycle, we see greater chances of the CLI trending
sideways. That being said, we expect the consumer index to also follow the
footprints of the CLI.
Over the past decade, there have been 4 downward economic cycles in Indonesia
(excluding the 2008 global financial crisis) with an average duration of 10.5 months.
If history is any indication, we suspect that the downward cycle could be nearing its
end. In addition to our view that the economic cycle is less likely to demonstrate an
immediate reversal, we equally see limited downward pressure to the CLI. All being
said, we expect to see flattish movement of the economic cycle, heading forward.
(pt)
101
101
100
100
99
99
7 months 11 months 12 months 13 months
98
1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18
Figure 14. Voters will be going to the polls early next year
In his thesis titled “Buying votes in Indonesia: Partisans, personal networks, and
winning margins” and dated February 2018, Mr. Burhanuddin Muhtadi argues that
“vote buying has become central to electoral mobilization in Indonesia.” Muhtadi
argues that vote buying has inefficiencies due to the 1) misinterpretation that
personal connections equates to loyalty and 2) political brokers who use their
personal networks to identify voters may not necessarily be loyal to the candidate.
If payments are made to such crowd of uncommitted voters, why is vote buying so
pervasive in Indonesia? Indeed, Muhtadi provides evidence that “gifts of money
‘only’ influenced the vote choice of roughly 10 percent to 11 percent of the total
electorate.” However, he adds that “the average margin of victory for successful
candidates in legislative elections… was only 1.65 percent.” Given the low margin of
victory, Muhtadi concludes that politicians show high enthusiasm when it comes to
vote buying as it could be the winning strategy.
During the New Order regime, vote buying would have limited influence over the
voters as the government-backed Golkar Party would win over any challenges from
opponent political parties. Muhtadi adds “vote buying was almost unheard of in the
1999 election (fall of the New Order regime)”, as the competition was centered on
political parties rather than the candidates. He highlights that vote buying gained
traction in the 2009 presidential election when the government permitted “political
candidates to enter the political race.” The fact that candidates did not simply
fighting against peers from competitor parties, but also against candidates within
their own parties accelerated the vote buying practice. Indeed, we witnessed
synchronized M1 growth deceleration (i.e., money withdrawals) during pre-election
years since the 2009 presidential election.
Figure 15. M1 growth showed deceleration during pre-election years since 2009 election
(YoY, %)
30
25
20
15
10
0
1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18
During the past two election years (2009 and 2014), we have witnessed government
allocating higher subsidies (in particular, oil subsidies – which is the largest
component in the central government subsidy program). While many argue that
this was largely a populist strategy in winning the votes, there may be some areas
of argument behind this interpretation. First of all, there was a gradual rise in crude
oil prices that drove the government’s urgency to preserve purchasing power of the
people. Second, president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY)’s second term expired
in 2014 and his political party maintained its neutral stance at the 2014 election. We
argue that the increase oil subsidies were conducted in good faith rather than
covered up in political objectives.
(IDRtr) (USD/b)
600 Social subsidies (L) Oil subsidies (L) Non-oil subsidies (L) WTI (R) 120
500 100
400 80
300 60
200 40
100 20
0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
During his tenure as the mayor of Surakarta (2005~ 2012), Mr. Jokowi
catapulted his hometown to the top ranks in various national surveys
including governance and business environment. His focus on social support
such as healthcare, education and infrastructure enabled him to gain national
recognition which took him to the Jakarta governor seat (2012) and later to
the presidential palace (2014).
As the governor of Jakarta (2012~ 2014), Mr. Jokowi further built his reputation
through strategic focus on social assistance programs (such as the Jakarta
Health Card and Jakarta Smart Card), infrastructure (revamping of the water
channels, Jakarta MRT/LRT, etc.) and transparency.
Since his inauguration as the president of the republic (2014~ present), Mr.
Jokowi surprised the market by removing fuel subsidies. His pragmatic
approach to reallocate idle spending into productive spending – such as
infrastructure and social developments – received much support from the
public.
Ever since his debut into the political scene in 2005, the backbone of president
Jokowi’s populism policy seems to be built on a pragmatic foundation which has a
strong focus on the development of the nation and its people. As noted earlier,
during the early days of his presidency president Jokowi focused much of his
attention to developing the much-needed infrastructure system that could cater
the nation’s growing economic activities. However, his populism strategy seems to
be shifting ahead of the 2019 election.
According to the latest draft of the state budget for 2019, key notables that we
would like to highlight are: 1) infrastructure spending is expected to grow a mere
2% YoY in 2019F, 2) oil subsidies are projected to jump 66% YoY to IDR156.5tr, 3)
social spending such as education (12% YoY) and health (14% YoY) are likely to
demonstrate double digit growths. Key highlights of the state budget draft for 2019
from the Ministry of Finance are summarized in the following table:
Figure 17. Infra spending Figure 18. Education spending Figure 19. Health spending
(IDRtr) Infra spending (L) (%) (IDRtr) Education spending (L) (%) (IDRtr) Health spending (L) (%)
450 Growth (YoY, R) 70 600 Growth (YoY, R) 14 140 Growth (YoY, R) 45
400 12 40
60 500 120
350 10 35
50 8 100
300 400 30
40 6 80
250 25
300 4
200 30 60 20
2
150 200 15
20 0 40
100 -2 10
10 100 20
50 -4 5
0 0 0 -6 0 0
Source: MoF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: MoF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: MoF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 20. Oil subsidies Figure 21. Non-oil subsidies Figure 22. Regional transfers et al.
(IDRtr) Oil subisidies (L) (%) (IDRtr) Non-oil subisidies (L) (%) (IDRtr) Regional transfers (L) (%)
400 Growth (YoY, R) 80 90 Growth (YoY, R) 40 900 Growth (YoY, R) 16
350 60 80 800 14
30
300 40 70 700 12
20
60 600
250 20 10
50 10 500
200 0 8
40 0 400
150 -20 6
30 300
-10
100 -40 20 200 4
50 -60 -20 2
10 100
0 -80 0 -30 0 0
Source: MoF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: MoF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: MoF, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
In a nutshell, the strategy change of president Jokowi in the draft of the 2019 state
budget can be observed by the muted growth in infrastructure spending and a
sharp increase in oil subsidies. Meaningful funds that would have been otherwise
allocated to infrastructure spending seem to have been redirected to oil subsidies.
However, we would remain cautious in hastily assuming that such changes in the
government’s budget strategy are politically intended to enrich the pocket situation
of the people ahead of the presidential election. Our view is premised on the
following arguments: 1) We underscore that oil price jumped 69% since end-2015 at
a time when fuel subsidies no longer exist. The sharp rise in oil price is likely to add
burden to households’ disposable income, weakening the purchasing power of
consumers. That being said, the administration’s strategy to allocate more oil
subsidies is a natural response to the rising oil price, in our view. Indeed, 2019
budgeted oil subsidies of IDR156.5tr represent only 45.8% of that spent in 2014,
when oil price was at current level. 2) Indonesia’s government is currently running
on a tight budget. As of 2017, Indonesia’s budget deficit reached 2.9% of the
nation’s GDP, which is near the 3% legal threshold stipulated under the budget law.
Given prolonged pressures from rising oil price combined with weakening local
currency, we suspect that government will have limited capacity to spend
aggressively on subsidies.
200 60
150
40
100
20
50
0 0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
Figure 24. Government revenue vs. expenditure Figure 25. Budget balance as % of GDP
(IDRtr) 0.0
3,000
Revenue
-0.5
2,500 Spending
-1.0
2,000
-1.5
1,500
-2.0
1,000
-2.5
500
-3.0 -2.92
0
-3.5
(%) 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: MoF, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: MoF, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Despite the cash disbursements and increased subsidies during pre-election years,
we find little evidence of meaningful improvement to consumption. We suspect
that consumers consider benefits during pre-election years to be a one-off event
and unsustainable. As such, temporary benefits are less likely to have profound
impact on the overall consumption behavior.
Figure 26. Consumer confidence index Figure 27. Retail sales growth
(pt) (YoY, %)
130 30
120 25
20
110
15
100
10
90
5
80
0
70 -5
60 -10
12/02 12/04 12/06 12/08 12/10 12/12 12/14 12/16 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18
Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Table 4. Indonesia’s annual oil production and consumption gap (mn tons)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production 47.8 49.4 48.4 48.6 46.3 44.6 42.7 41.2 40.7 43.0 46.4
Consumption 64.2 62.6 63.3 67.4 76.0 78.2 78.9 79.4 73.5 74.2 77.3
Gap -16.4 -13.2 -14.9 -18.8 -29.7 -33.6 -36.2 -38.2 -32.8 -31.2 -30.9
Source: BP Statistical Review, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
…Rising oil prices are likely to offset the positive subsidies impact
According to the draft of the 2019 state budget, oil subsidies are expected to
increase 65.6% YoY to IDR156.5tr (net increment of IDR62.0tr). The 2019 budgeted
fuel subsidies net increment in USD terms (USD4.08bn as of October 12, 2018
exchange rate) would only be enough to buffer USD20/b increase in oil prices.
Furthermore, we also note that further depreciation of the rupiah will also lead to a
reduction in the oil subsidies buffer.
Figure 28. Net oil subsidies increment would have no impact if oil prices rises >USD20/b
(USDbn)
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0 -0.2
-1.1
-2.0
-3.0 -2.2
-4.0 -3.3
-5.0 -4.4
Net increment to Oil price increase Oil price increase Oil price increase Oil price increase Oil price increase
2019 state budget USD1/b USD5/b USD10/b USD15/b USD20/b
Smart spending
We believe consumers have become smarter in their consumption behavior. We
ascribe this changing trend to 2 social factors: 1) higher education level and 2)
aggressive online penetration.
Figure 29. Minimum wage trend (nationwide average) Figure 30. Education level has meaningfully improved
2,266 98 95
2,300
90 94
2,074
2,100 85
1,917 80
1,900 70 71
1,702 72
1,700 1,506
60
1,500 50 55
1,288
1,300 40
1,119 45
1,100 989 30
900 25
20
700 10 13
13
500 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Source: Gajimu, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Given the cut-throat competition within the online retail space, we suspect that
most e-commerce players are sacrificing their profitability in the process of
securing market share. Most of the large e-commerce players, such as Lazada
(Alibaba), Tokopedia (Alibaba, Softbank), JD.id (JD.com), Shopee (Sea/Tencent), etc.
have solid financial backings from global investment firms, which lead us to believe
that the fight for market share may not be over in the near horizon.
All in all, the e-commerce wind of change has inevitably resulted in lower
inflationary pressure for the economy. As long as the fragmented e-commerce
industry maintains its form, we believe consumers will be able to take advantage of
the low-price environment.
Figure 31. Online retail sector value forecast Figure 32. Smart phone price remains low
5 1.0
4.4
4
3.2 100
3 0.5
2.3
2 1.7
1.3
0.9
1 0.6 0 0.0
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Source: Marketline, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 33. Smartphone penetration and cellular data pricing Figure 34. Diverse payment options
(%) (IDR/MB)
60 150
40 100
20 50
0 0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Figure 35. Aggressive promotions Figure 36. Offline vs. online price comparison
Source: Lazada, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Pricebook, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
(YoY, %) (IDR)
CPI (L) USD/IDR (R)
20 17,000
15,000
15
13,000
10
11,000
5
9,000
0
7,000
-5 5,000
1/00 1/02 1/04 1/06 1/08 1/10 1/12 1/14 1/16 1/18
We attribute the divergence of the CPI and USD/IDR trend to the following points:
1) We suspect that there has been increasing price control by the government over
agriculture products– which is a component in the inflation basket (19.2% weight to
the total basket), 2) greater sacrifice in preserving the purchasing power of the
nation by state-owned-enterprises (in particular, utility prices), and 3) higher import
tariffs which limited the appetite for imports. In short, we believe the government is
scrutinizing the overall inflation basket to identify and target areas where it can
squeeze inflation. We also suspect that businesses that are exposed to the items
that form the inflation basket may feel the squeeze in their operating margins.
Figure 38. Yearly price change of inflation components Figure 39. Wholesale agriculture prices reveal similar trend
(YoY, %) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 9/18 (YoY, %) CPI Wholesale price
12 80 Wholesale (imports) Wholesale (agriculture)
10 70
8 60
50
6
40
4
30
2
20
0
10
0
-10
12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17
Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 40. The fight against food cartels Figure 41. Administered prices under control
Source: Google search, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: The Jakarta Post, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
The modest growth pace of consumption is due to the inelastic nature of the
demand. If we breakdown the private consumption components, we can see that
majority of the household spending is essential spending (food/drinks excluding
restaurants, housing, and communication/transport comprise 74.9% of total
consumption as of 2017). Further, we suspect that most of the components are
either domestically sourced and/or intervened by the government (when
necessary) to preserve the purchasing power of the nation. We expect such trend
to continue heading into the election year in 2019, which should keep consumption
growth stable despite further weakness to the rupiah.
The overall impact should have limited contribution in lowering the headline
inflation as we suspect that most of the items that are subject to the additional
tariffs are excluded from the inflation basket. Furthermore, imports of consumption
goods only comprise 9% of the total import value. However, we suspect that
government’s move would contribute to slowing down imports of non-essential
goods (i.e., luxury goods), thus gradually improving the nation’s current account
balance.
Figure 42. Import value by types Figure 43. Import portion by types (2017)
(USDbn) (%)
200
Thousands
180
9.0
160 16.0
140 Capital goods Consumption goods
120
Raw materials/
Raw materials/
100 Auxiliary
Auxiliary
Consumption goods
80 Capital goods
60
40 75.1
20
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
40 Services 0.5
Goods
30 0.0
Currnet account as a % of GDP (R)
20
-0.5
10
-1.0
0
-1.5
-10
-2.0
-20
-30 -2.5
-40 -3.0
-50 -3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
Competition is boiling
The social ministry's budget leaped 43.4% to IDR58.9tr in the latest state budget.
However, we are siding with the view that the budget would only add minimal
impact at the macro consumption (1.0% of 2018F total private consumption).
Further, given rising education level of consumers, unfavorable macro backdrop is
likely to put spending on conservative mode. We are inclined to keep our
excitement on hold, for now.
Figure 45. Combined revenue from UNVR, ICBP, and KLBF Figure 46. A&P costs to pick up as competition rises
0.0%
30,000 5.0% 2,000
0 0.0% 0 -5.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data (UNVR, ICBP, and KLBF combined), Mirae Asset Sekuritas
Indonesia Research
Based on our observation, both companies under our coverage have sold more
lower-priced products in 1H18. GGRM claims to see better sales volume growth
from lower volume per pack of Surya 12 due to its lower price per stick (c.IDR1,300)
despite the same products with Surya 16 (IDR1,450). Its Surya Professional 16,
which has a price per stick of only around IDR1,020, has also seen a rise in sales
volume. Meanwhile, the company’s flagship brands Surya 16 and GG international
have seen growth stagnate. For HMSP, gross margin has contracted due to the
faster growth of lower-margin products (e.g., Magnum Mild).
Downgrade to Neutral
Figure 47. Industry cigarette sales volume (bn sticks) Figure 48. Industry segments market share
SPM SKT SKM
(bn sticks)
100.0%
5.1%
350
90.0%
18.7% 18.2% 17.0%
300 80.0%
70.0%
250
60.0%
200
50.0%
146.7 144.5
150 40.0% 76.7%
30.0%
100
20.0%
50
10.0%
0 0.0%
1Q15 FY15 9M16 1H17 1Q18 2Q15 1Q16 4Q16 3Q17 2Q18
Source: PMI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia research Source: PMI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia research
In the RAPBN 2019, the government’s total budget for social spending stands at
IDR58.9tr, an increase of 43.4% YoY. On top of that, the government stated its
intention to increase the amount of conditional cash transfers by 100%. With the
total number of household recipients to stay unchanged at 10mn, we expect the
amount of conditional cash transfers to double for each household. Although gross
impact may prove to be marginal at the macro level, we firmly believe that the
social budget will have profound impact on the low-income households. All in all,
we anticipate social aid spending by the government to support low-income
consumer demand in the retail sector.
Improvement to continue
Figure 49. Utilities vs. headline inflation Figure 50. Recipients of conditional cash transfers
6 8.0
6.0 6.2
5
6.0
4
4.0 3.5
3 2.88 2.8
2.3
2 2.11 2.0
1
-
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Outlook RAPBN
1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 2018 2019
Source: BI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Ministry of Finance, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
We note that the government is putting hard efforts to stabilize the nation’s
inflation, including managing broiler prices. The Ministry of Trade recently issued a
new set of regulation concerning the purchasing reference price at the farm level
and selling reference price at the consumer level (effective as of October 1). Under
the new regulation, broiler chicken egg and meat prices are set at between
IDR18,000/kg (lower limit) and IDR20,000/kg (upper limit) at the farm gate level (vs.
IDR17,000/kg – IDR19,000/kg in the previous regulation). Meanwhile, the selling
reference price at the consumer level was set between IDR34,000/kg (vs.
IDR32,000/kg previously) for chicken meat and IDR23,000/kg (vs. IDR22,000/kg
previously) for broiler eggs. We believe the government's active intervention will
stabilize the movement of broiler prices, which we view as a neutral event.
Figure 51. Market survey on avg. live bird prices (West Java) Figure 52. Market survey on avg. DOC prices (West Java)
(IDR/kg) (IDR)
24,000 7,000
22,000 6,000
5,000
20,000
4,000
18,000
3,000
16,000
2,000
14,000 1,000
12,000 0
01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18 01/14 07/14 01/15 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 07/18
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia research
A bad surprise
Macro aside, we see high correlation between consumer index and yields
We note that the consumer index displays strong inverse correlation with market
yields. Given our expectation that Bank Indonesia is likely to mirror US Federal
Reserve’s rate hike path, we see further upside risk to the government bond yields.
From a simple correlation perspective, we expect the price performance of
consumers to bear greater downside risk from here.
Figure 53. Consumers vs. FX rate Figure 54. Consumers vs. yield Figure 55. Consumers vs. commodity
120 115
115
115
105
110
105
105 95
100 95
85
95
90 75 85
12/16 6/17 12/17 6/18 12/16 6/17 12/17 6/18 12/16 6/17 12/17 6/18
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securitas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securitas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securitas Indonesia
Figure 56. Revenue growth comparison (1H17 vs. 1H18) Figure 57. Net profit growth comparison (1H17 vs. 1H18)
(YoY, %) (YoY, %)
25 250
22.6 225.5
20 18.0 200
14.8
15 150
10 9.0 100
7.5
65.0
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Note: Consumer average includes revenue aggregation of the companies Note: Consumer average includes net profit aggregation of the companies
mentioned in this report mentioned in this report
Value emerging…
The Jakarta consumer index is trading at 30.9x trailing P/E. Since April of this year,
the consumer index has been trading within a boxed range of -1STD~ -2STD. The
index is trading at a 4.7%/9.4%/7.9% discount to 1-year/3-year/5-year average
historical trends, which lead us to believe that sector valuations are compelling with
limited downside. Indeed, over the past 5 years, the index was able to keep –2STD
level as a strong supporting level.
+2STD
+1STD
35
AVG
-1STD
30
-2STD
25
12/13 4/14 8/14 12/14 4/15 8/15 12/15 4/16 8/16 12/16 4/17 8/17 12/17 4/18 8/18
22 +2STD
20 +1STD
AVG
18
-1STD
16
-2STD
14
12
12/13 4/14 8/14 12/14 4/15 8/15 12/15 4/16 8/16 12/16 4/17 8/17 12/17 4/18 8/18
40 30
35 25
30 20
25 15
12/13 6/14 12/14 6/15 12/15 6/16 12/16 6/17 12/17 6/18
Table 9. Revenue trends and forecasts for key consumer companies (IDRbn)
2018F/ 2019F/ 2011~2017
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
2017 2018F Avg. growth
HMSP 52,856.7 66,626.1 75,025.2 80,690.1 89,069.3 95,466.7 99,091.5 106,178.9 114,788.1 7.2% 8.1% 12.8%
UNVR 23,469.2 27,303.2 30,757.4 34,511.5 36,484.0 40,053.7 41,204.5 43,484.6 46,724.2 5.5% 7.4% 11.3%
GGRM 41,884.4 49,028.7 55,437.0 65,185.9 70,365.6 76,274.1 83,305.9 92,091.1 101,761.0 10.5% 10.5% 12.1%
ICBP 19,367.2 21,716.9 25,094.7 30,022.5 31,741.1 34,375.2 35,606.6 38,517.2 41,409.7 8.2% 7.5% 10.4%
INDF 45,768.1 50,201.5 55,623.7 63,594.5 64,061.9 66,659.5 70,186.6 74,118.5 79,360.5 5.6% 7.1% 9.2%
KLBF 10,911.9 13,636.4 16,002.1 17,368.5 17,887.5 19,374.2 20,182.1 21,299.5 22,901.3 5.5% 7.5% 10.4%
CPIN 17,958.0 21,310.9 25,663.0 29,150.3 29,920.6 38,256.9 49,367.4 53,499.6 58,211.7 8.4% 8.8% 18.8%
JPFA 15,633.1 17,832.7 21,412.1 24,458.9 25,022.9 27,063.3 29,602.7 33,880.8 36,911.6 14.5% 8.9% 11.5%
MAIN 2,634.5 3,349.6 4,193.1 4,502.1 4,775.0 5,237.7 5,441.4 6,219.0 6,709.6 14.3% 7.9% 15.5%
MYOR 9,453.9 10,510.6 12,017.8 14,169.1 14,818.7 18,350.0 20,816.7 23,537.5 26,781.5 13.1% 13.8% 16.6%
HOKI N/A N/A N/A 518.3 658.3 1,146.9 1,209.2 1,477.4 1,971.7 22.2% 33.5% 35.6%
ASII 162,564.0 188,053.0 193,880.0 201,701.0 184,196.0 181,084.0 206,057.0 222,104.0 240,150.5 7.8% 8.1% 7.5%
AMRT 18,227.0 27,177.0 34,897.3 41,495.7 48,265.5 56,107.1 61,464.9 68,112.2 75,048.0 10.8% 10.2% 24.0%
MAPI 5,889.8 7,585.1 9,734.2 11,822.1 12,832.8 14,149.6 16,305.7 18,762.5 21,242.9 15.1% 13.2% 19.7%
LPPF 4,700.7 5,616.9 6,754.3 7,925.5 9,006.9 9,897.0 10,024.0 10,547.3 11,598.7 5.2% 10.0% 13.8%
RALS 5,086.2 5,699.7 6,000.8 5,861.3 5,533.0 5,857.0 5,622.7 6,277.8 7,104.8 11.7% 13.2% 2.5%
Total 436,404.5 515,648.4 572,492.7 632,977.3 644,639.1 689,353.0 755,488.9 820,107.9 892,675.8 8.6% 8.8% 11.2%
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
The consumer index embeds strong correlation with the composite leading
indicator (CLI) – which is currently positioned in the negative territory. However,
based on our assessment of the key components of the CLI, we are inclined to
believe that the economy is unexciting at this point and unlikely to exhibit an
imminent rebound from here.
The composite leading indicator is heading into its 12 consecutive month of decline.
Given the past 4 down cycles had an average duration of 10.5 months, we suspect
that the decline could be nearing its end. We see low probability of an immediate
trend reversal, however, we equally view current economic conditions worsening
further from here.
Indonesia’s presidential election is just around the corner (April 2019) and market
participants seem to be excited about the nation’s consumption outlook. There are
two reasons behind the excitement – 1) vote buying and 2) increased subsidies.
However, we suspect that vote buying has limited impact on the mid-to-long term
spending intentions as they are considered unsustainable. Further, increased
subsidies are conducted in good faith, rather than covered up with politics, in our
view.
Indonesian consumer story is stuck in limbo with very limited upside catalysts.
Furthermore, news headlines continue to feed markets with negative
developments, which have dented the consumption sentiment. However, we view
downside risk to be equally limited as we consider limited downside to Indonesia’s
economic cycle as well as spending profile concentrated on essential spending.
Similar story applies to valuations as consumer index is trading at a 12M trailing P/E
of 30.9x (7.9% discount to 5-year historical average). Current market landscape has
too many moving parts to the equation which are mostly unpredictable. We
recommend investors to take conservative stance on the consumer sector. We
downgrade our sector call from Overweight to Neutral.
While consumer names are – by the nature of their business – defensive, we would
like to take a further look into the debt side of the consumer companies’ balance
sheets. We believe the market is trending on the weak side of the credit cycle and
hence, rising interest rates and further weakening of the rupiah (if a company is
exposed to USD debt) may end up compressing margins further.
Table 10. Profitability and debt profile of consumer companies vs. LQ45 (FY2017)
ROE Total debt to Debt to equity
vs. LQ45 vs. LQ45 vs. LQ45
(%) EBITDA (x) (%)
HMSP 37.1 HIGH 0.0 LOW 0.3 LOW
UNVR 141.8 HIGH 0.3 LOW 66.7 HIGH
GGRM 19.0 HIGH 1.5 LOW 48.8 HIGH
ICBP 20.5 HIGH 0.4 LOW 11.6 LOW
INDF 13.9 LOW 2.3 HIGH 52.0 HIGH
KLBF 19.1 HIGH 0.1 LOW 2.3 LOW
CPIN 16.8 HIGH 1.3 LOW 37.5 LOW
JPFA 11.0 LOW 2.0 HIGH 62.0 HIGH
MAIN 2.8 LOW 5.1 HIGH 108.3 HIGH
MYOR 24.0 HIGH 1.5 LOW 60.6 HIGH
HOKI 13.8 LOW 0.9 LOW 15.3 LOW
ASII 16.0 LOW 2.7 HIGH 48.0 LOW
AMRT 5.9 LOW 2.2 HIGH 149.7 HIGH
MAPI 9.2 LOW 2.0 HIGH 83.3 HIGH
LPPF 91.2 HIGH 0.0 LOW 0.0 LOW
RALS 11.9 LOW 0.0 LOW 0.0 LOW
LQ45 16.3 1.8 47.2
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Narrowing our discussions to debt side only, we highlight the following consumer
names with low debt to EBITDA and low debt to equity against the LQ45: HMSP,
ICBP, KLBF, CPIN, HOKI, LPPF, and RALS. Further trimming down the list with
relatively higher profitability profile, we select HMSP, UNVR, ICBP, KLBF, CPIN, and
LPPF as our preferred names within the defensive theme.
2) Idiosyncratic turnaround
We believe there are industry-specific issues that are driving margins higher. Given
the broad-based negative sentiment hanging over the market, profitability drivers
are likely to grab investors’ attention. We quickly discuss the following industry and
company specific issues:
ASII (Not Rated): We suspect ASII’s margin recovery was chiefly driven by its
tight control over its operating expenses. According to Bloomberg consensus
estimates, ASII is expected to deliver revenue and gross profit growths of
7.8% and 8.4% YoY, respectively in 2018F. However, the diversified
conglomerate is likely to deliver 15.5% YoY growth in its operating profit for
2018F, largely driven by the muted growth in its operating expenses (1.9%
YoY).
Key Recommendations
In 2017, RALS has closed down 16 unprofitable supermarkets (11 stores through
(Maintain) Buy
9M17) due to poor management that has led to slow supermarket traffic. At the
beginning of 2017, management had expected to convert 25 supermarkets into
Target Price (12M, IDR) 1,610 SPAR stores and increase fresh food products’ contribution to supermarket revenue
to around 22-23%. As it turned out, the company had to cancel the supermarkets’
Share Price (10/12/18, IDR) 1,190 conversion, and instead opened up one SPAR supermarket next to one of its
fashion department stores. Meanwhile, fresh food products’ contribution to overall
Expected Return 35.3% supermarket revenue is still far below the goal, hovering around 15-16%. In our
view, closing down unprofitable supermarkets and renting out the space to other
OP (18F, IDRbn) 554.5 vendors is a prudent strategy to mitigate further losses.
Consensus OP (18F, IDRbn) 502.2
Paying closer attention to fashion operations
EPS Growth (18F, %) 36.8
Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 19.7 Following the supermarket closures, management is paying closer attention to its
P/E (18F, x) 16.4 fashion operations, although the company has also closed down three department
Industry P/E (18F, x) 47.2 stores in 2017. Notably, some of the closed supermarket spaces are now being
Benchmark P/E (18F, x) 15.3 used for fashion consignment items. Management sees more opportunities from
expanding the fashion business than from keeping supermarkets running.
Market Cap (IDRbn) 8,444.2
Shares Outstanding (mn) 7,096.0 Strong consignment sales throughout 2018
Free Float (%) 36.6
Foreign Ownership (%) 67.8 Department store fashion sales saw robust growth, mainly supported by
Beta (12M) 0.9 consignment sales. This is consistent with the company’s aim to increase
52-Week Low 865 consignment sales, which have better margins than direct purchase. Consignment
52-Week High 1,555 sales showed the fastest growth in 1H18 (+18.7% YoY), followed by department
stores (+8.6% YoY). Meanwhile, supermarket sales fell 20% YoY in 1H18, mainly due
(%) 1M 6M 12M
to the closures of 18 unprofitable supermarkets since last year.
Absolute -7.0 -16.8 24.0
Relative -6.3 -8.6 26.8 SSSG has turned positive in 2018
(D-1yr=100)
JCI RALS RALS’ same-store sales growth (SSSG) as of June was just 1.9% YTD. For 2018, the
160
company is targeting blended SSSG of 1.5-3%, with fashion SSSG expected to come
in between 5-8% and supermarket SSSG to remain negative (around -10% to -15%).
140
120
We take a conservative approach in our model by adopting the lower band of the
100 company’s guidance in our SSSG assumption.
MAPI has USD risk exposure, as 18% of its COGS is in USD. Nonetheless, we think it
will be able to sustain profitability going forward, given the SSSG recovery across all
of its divisions and the strength of specialty store sales.
Figure 61. Total additions to MAPI’s store space Figure 62. Department store space additions
(Sqm) (Sqm)
Dept store
120,000 MAPI 40,000
30,000
100,000
20,000
80,000
10,000
60,000 0
-10,000
40,000
-20,000
20,000
-30,000
0 -40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 63. Specialty store net space additions Figure 64. Specialty store sales productivity
10,000 10.0
5,000 5.0
0
-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 65. MAPI revenue breakdown Figure 66. F&B division store count
(storecount)
500
13% 15% 450
400
350
Dept store
300
Specialty stores
250
Food & Beverage
200
Others
150
100
50
72% 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
OP (18F, IDRbn) 5,529 ICBP’s 1H18 revenue grew 5.4% YoY to IDR19.5tr, with most of ICBP’s divisions
Consensus OP (18F, IDRbn) 5,677 booked positive YoY sales growth: noodles (+7.1% YoY, driven by both volume and
ASP growth), dairy (+5.4% YoY, driven by both volume and ASP growth), nutrition
EPS Growth (18F, %) 15.6
and special foods (+20.5% YoY, driven by volume growth), and beverages (+5.8%
Consensus EPS Growth (18F, %) 10.7
YoY, driven by ASP growth). However, food seasonings booked negative YoY growth
P/E (18F, x) 23.1
(-21.1% YoY), while snack foods booked flat YoY growth. As for margins, noodles
Industry P/E (18F, x) 27.8
Benchmark P/E (18F, x) 15.4
(63.6% contribution to 1H18 total net sales) booked better EBIT margin in 1H18
(20.5%, vs. 19.6% in 1H17). With domination in noodles market (including its strong
Market Cap (IDRbn) 101,750.2 brand image), coupled with continuous innovation to create new flavors, we believe
Shares Outstanding (mn) 11,661.9 ICBP could maintain its domination in noodles segment in the future. Not to
Free Float (%) 19.5 mention, ICBP is one of the world’s largest instant noodle manufacturers.
Foreign Ownership (%) 6.9
Beta (12M) 1.1 More and more new products in 2018
52-Week Low 7,900
52-Week High 9,275 We believe that consumer companies are facing tighter competition in the market,
especially in the midst of still-weak purchasing intention. Consumers have an
(%) 1M 6M 12M abundance of choices, especially with the rising penetration of online shopping
Absolute -1.7 4.5 0.3 recently. However, we still believe ICBP can retain its leading position in the market.
Relative -1.0 12.7 3.2
The company’s continuing efforts to develop products and innovate could boost
(D-1yr=100)
volume growth, in our view.
JCI ICBP
120
110
Maintain Trading Buy and TP of IDR9,700
100 We maintain our forecast revenue growth of 10.8% YoY and net profit growth of
90 15.9% YoY for FY18. We retain our Trading Buy recommendation on ICBP with a
80
target price of IDR9,700. Risks to our call include intensified competition, a slower-
10/17 12/17 2/18 4/18 6/18 8/18 10/18
than-expected recovery in purchasing intention, and higher-than-expected
USD/IDR volatility and raw material prices, all of which could hamper ICBP’s
profitability.
Forecasts/ Valuations
Cash Flow (Summarized) (Summarized)
(IDRbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F
Operating Cash Flow P/E (x) 28.3 26.8 23.1 20.5
Net income 3,600 3,797 4,400 4,959 P/B (x) 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.1
Depreciation 511 582 641 717 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.5 16.0 15.2 13.5
Changes in operating accounts EPS (IDR) 309 326 377 425
∆ in trade receivables 523 150 777 1,038 BPS (IDR) 1,506 1,678 1,893 2,137
∆ in inventories 563 152 378 689 DPS (IDR) 154 162 181 204
∆ in others CA -191 281 -58 71 Payout ratio (%) 49.9% 49.8% 48.0% 48.0%
∆ in trade payable 502 212 -112 337 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3%
∆ in short term debt -269 232 567 131 Revenue growth (%) 8.3% 3.6% 10.8% 11.9%
∆ in accrued expense 154 -260 501 235 GP growth (%) 11.9% 2.7% 11.7% 11.6%
∆ in others CL 81 174 133 141 OP growth (%) 26.3% 8.9% 2.8% 12.4%
CFO 3,683 4,153 5,033 4,723 EBITDA growth (%) 24.3% 9.4% 3.5% 12.4%
Investing Cash Flow NP growth (%) 20.0% 5.4% 15.9% 12.7%
∆ in PPE 1,069 1,588 1,112 1,600 AR turnover (x) 9.9 9.4 8.5 7.8
Others 173 704 64 832 Invt. turnover (x) 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.0
CFI -1,242 -2,291 -1,177 -2,432 AP turnover (x) 7.3 6.5 7.8 7.8
Financing Cash Flow ROA (%) 12.5% 12.0% 12.4% 12.5%
∆ in other liability 315 456 -38 414 ROE (%) 20.5% 19.4% 19.9% 19.9%
∆ in equity 1,491 1,797 1,889 2,112 Gearing
∆ in minority interest 5 -176 0 0 Total debt (IDRbn) 2,045 2,357 3,135 3,387
CFF -1,726 -1,437 -1,716 -1,578 Debt/equity (%) 11.6% 12.0% 14.2% 13.6%
Net cash 714 425 2,140 713 Net cash (IDRbn) 6,327 6,440 7,801 8,263
beginning balance 7,658 8,372 8,797 10,936 Net debt/equity (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash
ending balance 8,372 8,797 10,936 11,650
Source: Company, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research estimates
This year is a recovery year for poultry companies supported by higher local corn
Not Rated supply and the rebound of live bird and day-old chick (DOC) prices. We attribute the
resilience of DOC prices this year to a combination of factors, including last year’s
Target Price (12M, IDR) N/A supply adjustment and lower industry productivity due to restrictions on the use of
AGP (antibiotic growth promoter), which went into effect January 1st, 2018. As a
Share Price (10/12/18, IDR) 4,990 result, the margins of poultry companies showed a significant YoY increase in
6M18, boosting their net profits. One of the poultry companies that enjoy the better
margin this year is Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ/ Not rated).
Expected Return N/A
CPIN at a glance
OP (18F, IDRbn) N/A
Consensus OP (18F, IDRbn) 5,878 Established in 1972, CPIN was established under the name of PT Charoen
Pokphand Indonesia Animal Feedmill Co. Limited. CPIN has an integrated poultry
EPS Growth (18F, %) N/A
business from upstream to downstream, which make CPIN’s business more
Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 69.5
efficient. CPIN divides its business into five segments, namely: feed (c.54%
P/E (18F, x) N/A
contribution to its 1H18 total sales), broiler (24%), Day-Old Chicks (DOC, 12%),
Industry P/E (18F, x) 16.1
Benchmark P/E (18F, x) 15.4
processed chicken (6%), and others (4%). In term of feed and DOC production
capacity shares, CPIN holds the biggest capacity shares with estimated 35% and
Market Cap (IDRbn) 81,826.0 38% capacity share, respectively (source: Malindo Feedmill presentation). As a
Shares Outstanding (mn) 16,398.0 livestock related company, CPIN’s business has a cyclical, influenced by supply and
Free Float (%) 44.5 demand in the market.
Foreign Ownership (%) 6.0
Beta (12M) 1.0 Exceptional net profit growth in 1H18 on the back of margin recovery
52-Week Low 2,820
52-Week High 5,450 In line with industry performance, CPIN booked 1H18 net profit of IDR2.4tr, surging
59.7% YoY on the back of margin improvement. CPIN’s profit margin on gross,
(%) 1M 6M 12M operating, and net level improved in 1H18 to 18.4%, 13.2%, and 9.5%, respectively
Absolute 0.2 32.7 61.5 (vs. 13.0%, 8.5%, and 6.1%, respectively in 1H17).
Relative 0.9 40.9 64.4
There is still ample room to grow in the future
(D-1yr=100)
JCI CPIN
We believe that poultry industry in Indonesia still has ample room to grow due to:
180
140
countries such as Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam, 2) chicken is one of the most
120
100
affordable (in term of prices) protein sources in Indonesia. Not to mention, our
80
huge population with potential growing middle-income households also provide
10/17 12/17 2/18 4/18 6/18 8/18 10/18
ample room for poultry industry to grow further in the future. However, we also
noticed that several risk factors remain, including rupiah depreciation, higher
interest rates, seasonally lower consumption in the second half of the year, and
negative sentiment from global factors.
(IDRbn) Revenue (L) Growth (R) (%) (IDRbn) Net profit (L) Growth (R) (%)
90,000 35 3,000 80
29.0 30
75,000 27.9 60
2,500
25
60,000 20.4 20 40
18.7
2,000
15
45,000 13.6 20.9 20
10 14.0 12.5
1,500
5.2
30,000 5 0
2.6 -5.7
0 1,000
15,000 -20
-5
-31.0
0 -10 500 -40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 69. Gross profit margin trend Figure 70. Current ratio vs. quick ratio
(IDRbn) Gross profit (L) GPM (R) (%) (x) Current ratio (L) Quick Ratio (R) (x)
10,000 24 4.0 2.0
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 71. Leverage and debt-to-equity ratio Figure 72. P/E and PB
(x) Debt-equity ratio (L) Financial leverage (R) (x) (x) P/E P/B
0.8 2.2 50
0.8
2.0
0.7
0.7 1.8 40
0.6
0.6 1.6
0.5
1.4 30
0.5
0.4 1.2
0.4
1.0 20
0.3
0.3 0.8
0.2
0.2 0.6 10
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.0 0.2 0
6/12 3/13 12/13 9/14 6/15 3/16 12/16 9/17 6/18 5/11 5/12 5/13 5/14 5/15 5/16 5/17 5/18
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
HOKI is a premium rice producer that controls a market share of around 35.0% in
modern channels. With a strong brand image and rice business-focused strategy,
Consumer HOKI enjoys a competitive advantage from its well-known products and strong
distribution channel. Notably, the company is a beneficiary of recent changes in the
(Maintain) Buy rice industry’s competitive landscape following the implementation of the price
ceiling (Harga Eceran Tertinggi/HET) regulation.
Target Price (12M, IDR) 1,350 35.0% market share with strong modern distribution channels
Before the HET implementation, HOKI’s market share in modern channels stood at
Share Price (10/12/18, IDR) 820
35.0%; we believe its market share is poised to rise further with the regulation’s
implementation. For the private label segment, HOKI produces the Indomaret-
Expected Return 64.6% labeled brand, which is distributed in Indomaret stores. Currently, HOKI is in the
process of rolling out a new Alfamart private label brand (having obtained a license
OP (18F, IDRbn) 138.8 from the government in August), which will be distributed in 2,400 Alfamart stores
Consensus OP (18F, IDRbn) 132.7 in Sumatra. Alfamart and Indomaret are the two modern channels with the most
EPS Growth (18F, %) 94.9
outlets throughout Indonesia (accounting for 29,048 of the total 32,151 outlets).
Consensus EPS Growth (18F, %) 64.3
Thus, strengthening the modern channel is a competitive advantage for HOKI.
P/E (18F, x) 20.6 Key drivers: Narrowing price gap, new modern distribution channel
Industry P/E (18F, x) 27.8
Benchmark P/E (18F, x) 15.4 The price gap between modern and traditional channels is narrowing post-HET
implementation, leading to a change in the industry landscape. Customers are
Market Cap (IDRbn) 1,947.4 incentivized to buy more from the modern market than from the traditional one.
Shares Outstanding (mn) 2,374.8 Indonesians’ preferences also have been shifting from hyper/supermarts to
Free Float (%) 28.2 minimarts, which are more widely distributed in residential areas. Rising GDP per
Foreign Ownership (%) 1.4 capita has also fueled the shift in customer preference toward branded packaged
Beta (12M) N/A rice and away from bulk unbranded rice. Given easing competition in the modern
52-Week Low 298 market rice industry, the company will upgrade the capacity of its rice mill (located
52-Week High 1,015 in Subang) to 50 tonnes/hour in late 2018 (from 30 tonnes/hour).
(%) 1M 6M 12M Earnings to grow six times faster than Indonesia’s economy (‘16-‘20F)
Absolute -8.4 53.3 159.5
Relative -7.7 61.5 162.4 Factoring in all of our assumptions, we project HOKI’s net profit to reach IDR93.5bn
in 2020, representing 2016-20 CAGR of +31.1%—six times faster than Indonesia’s
(D-1yr=100)
JCI HOKI economy. (We assume GDP growth to be around 5.0%/year.) Furthermore, we
believe HOKI’s margins will expand further (2020F net margin: 7.3%, vs. 4.0% in
360
320
280 2017).
240
200
160
Reiterate Buy call with TP of IDR1,350
120
80 We reiterate our Buy call on HOKI with a target price of IDR1,350, implying 64.6%
upside potential. It is currently trading at a 2018F P/E of 20.6x. We are positive on
10/17 12/17 2/18 4/18 6/18 8/18 10/18
HOKI’s market development and production capacity expansion. Risks to our call
include regulatory changes and delays to the production capacity upgrade.
Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)
12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F
P/E (x) 40.2 20.6 12.4 11.4
P/B (x) 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.5
Cash Flows (Summarized) EV/EBITDA (x) 26.7 14.4 9.1 8.4
(IDRbn) 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F EPS (IDR) 20 40 66 72
Cash Flows from Op Activities -132 132.7 139 170 BPS (DR) 203 230 277 327
Net Profit 48 93 156 170 DPS (IDR) 0 12 20 22
Depreciation 9 27 33 32 Payout Ratio (%) 0.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Change in Working Cap -146 -37 -63 -34 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.5 2.4 2.6
Others -43 49 13 3 Revenue Growth (%) 5.4 27.3 40.0 8.0
Cash Flows from Inv. Activities -1 -203 -84 -61 EBITDA Growth (%) 1.3 93.5 58.7 7.4
Capex 0 -200 -80 -60 Operating Profit Growth (%) 1.0 90.2 60.3 7.8
Others -1 -3 -4 -1 EPS Growth (%) 9.5 94.9 66.5 8.9
Cash Flows from Fin. Activities 167 54 -39 -59 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 4.8 5.6 6.5 6.5
Change in Financial Liabilities -45 79 1 -10 Inventory Turnover (x) 14.5 14.6 18.3 18.3
Change in Equity 209 0 0 0 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 303.6 214.7 214.7 214.7
Dividends Paid 0 -28 -47 -51 ROA (%) 10.1 14.2 19.3 18.2
Others 3 3 7 2 ROE (%) 13.8 18.4 26.1 23.9
Increase (Decrease) in Cash 34 -16 15 50 Current Ratio (%) 4.6 2.1 2.4 2.9
Beginning Balance 2 36 20 36 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Ending Balance 36 20 36 86 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 7.3 7.6 12.2 14.0
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research estimates
APPENDIX 1
Disclosures
As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia. and/or its affiliates own 1% or more of HOKI`s shares outstanding.
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