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MEMORANDOM TO REEVES CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP
FROM: WES ANDERSON
DATE: 3/1/10
RE: ANALYSIS OF STATEWIDE SURVEY FINDINGS
The following Mississippi statewide survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. Telephone interviews
were conducted February 22‐23, 2010. This survey consisted of 500 likely Republican primary election
voters statewide. The survey was stratified by county to reflect historic turnout trends. The margin of
error for this survey is +/‐ 4.4%.
The findings are very encouraging and strongly suggest a match‐up between Reeves and State Senator
Billy Hewes would greatly favor Reeves.
First, let’s review the images of the two potential candidates.
• State Treasurer Tate Reeves is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by only 3% of the
primary electorate. As a statewide office holder, Reeves is well known in all of the key markets
in the state. His strongest support is found in Jackson, the largest media market in the state
where 57% have a favorable opinion of Reeves. Statewide, 66% of voters approve of the job
that Reeves is doing while only 7% disapprove.
• State Senator Billy Hewes is barely known in the state with only 16% having a favorable opinion
while 3% hold an unfavorable opinion. Across all media markets, Hewes is unknown with the
only exception being his home market of Biloxi where he is viewed favorably by 43% and
unfavorably by 2%. Of course, like any statewide candidate, Hewes' weak name ID could be
remedied but it would require significant resources just to reach parity with Reeves.
Tate Reeves’ experience and performance as State Treasurer leaves GOP primary voters inclined to give
him even more responsibility. In fact, in a hypothetical race for Lt. Governor, Reeves begins as the
frontrunner in every conceivable potential race. For instance:
• In a hypothetical two way race with Hewes, Reeves starts with a majority of the vote and a
huge 50% to 12% lead.
• Reeves leads by at least 33 points in every major media market except Biloxi‐Gulfport (a
market in which Reeves trails by only 5 points). For example, in the critical Jackson media
market, Reeves leads Hewes 67% to 7%. This is driven by a lead of 70%‐9%, 64%‐7%, and 76%‐
5% in Hinds, Rankin, and Madison Counties, respectively.
• Reeves’ overwhelming support in the Jackson market, which makes up 36% of the total GOP
primary vote, gives him a base of support that would be very difficult for any other candidate
to overcome.
• When we look at the area demographics, we find that it does not matter whether you live in a
rural area or suburban/urban setting, voters still flock to Reeves with margins of anywhere
from +20 to +53.
• By ideology, Reeves also has large leads among voters who describe themselves as somewhat
or very conservative. Self‐identified conservatives make up 81% of the GOP primary
electorate.
• Reeves leads among every age group by huge margins, as well as leading among both men and
women.
• Looking at those with a favorable opinion of both candidates, 56% say that they would vote for
Reeves, and with those that have an opinion of both, 65% say that they would vote for Reeves.
Historically, the ballot measure among those voters who have an opinion of both candidates is
a strong leading indicator. The fact that Reeves garners 65% of those voters strongly suggests
hardness to his support that would not easily erode.
• When asked if they would rather vote for a candidate with business experience or a candidate
with political experience, the voters choose business experience 50% to 34%, with another 8%
saying both. Reeves’ experience in both the public and private sectors is a perfect match for
voter expectations heading into next year.
CONCLUSION
State Treasurer Tate Reeves has very strong job approval rating throughout all regions of the state and a
significant base of support in the largest media market (Jackson). With $1,200,000 in cash on hand on
the 2009 campaign finance reports and a strong starting position in all potential matchups, Reeves
begins the 2011 election cycle in an extremely formidable position.
In a hypothetical matchup with Senator Hewes, Reeves holds a more than a significant advantage. He is
a known commodity and voters like what they see. In a primary race for Lt. Governor, Senator Hewes
has a significant disadvantage to overcome. He will have to spend significant resources to become
relevant to the voters, and that is just to get to an equal starting position with Reeves. Every indication
from these numbers points to the fact that State Treasurer Tate Reeves is well positioned to be the
Republican nominee for Lt. Governor in 2011.