Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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THE CONTENDERS
Since the end of the one-party regime headed by the Partido Revolu-
cionario Institucional (PRI) in the year 2000, Mexico’s political land-
scape has been dominated by three major parties, with the PRI in the
center, the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) on the right, and the
Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) on the left.
This time around was no exception. The main contenders were
José Antonio Meade, representing the PRI and its coalition Todos
por México (“Everyone for Mexico”), Ricardo Anaya from the
PAN, with its coalition México al Frente (“Mexico Forward”), and
López Obrador from the newly founded Movimiento de Reno-
vación Nacional (MORENA), and its coalition Juntos Haremos
Historia (“Together we will make history”).
José Antonio Meade was mainly known as a competent adminis-
trator with a penchant for using technocratic language that he picked
up during his years at Yale. The talk of the town was that he has
never seen an econometric model he didn’t like. He could boast of
considerable experience working in important cabinet positions—
Hacienda (an immensely powerful department where economic
policy is designed), Energy, and Foreign Relations—and he was seen
by financial analysts and investors as the best qualified. On the
downside, he never garnered the support of the PRI grass roots
because he was not a party member. Mindful of the erosion of the
PRI’s credibility, outgoing president Enrique Peña Nieto decided to
choose Meade due to the sorry political situation of his government;
as the elections approached fewer than three in ten Mexicans ap-
proved of his administration’s performance. Among the reasons for
Peña Nieto’s remarkable unpopularity were widespread corruption,
high levels of violence and insecurity, and the failure of his economic
reforms to generate growth.
The PAN’s Ricardo Anaya, the youngest of the three contenders,
attempted to reach out to the young and the urban elites. But his
campaign misread the state of mind of the Mexican people as a
whole. From the start, he seemed aloof and showed little genuine
interest in the population. In the language of Peter Thiel, he was
offering bits when the Mexican people demanded atoms. He did not
realize that the election was about the present rather than about the
future. Anaya’s chances were further diminished when, as the
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THE ELECTION
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The biggest loser by any measure was the PRI, for its number of
congressmen shrank dramatically, and perhaps more important, it
will now be entitled to only a tiny portion of the resources it
previously received from the federal electoral authority when it was
the largest party. Moreover, the PRI will now control only twelve
governorships and no longer holds the majority in many state
legislatures. The catastrophe was so great that the president of the
PRI, Claudia Ruiz Massieu, suggested that it would be better for the
party to change its name.
As for the second-largest party in Mexico, the PAN, its influence
has also been greatly diminished. Not only has its presidential
candidate suffered a humiliating defeat, but the party was left deeply
divided and weakened as a result. Even if they wished to, the PRI
and PAN combined could not pose a real challenge to MORENA, at
least in the short term.
AMLO was victorious across the board. His victory has been
described by many pundits as a political tsunami. His voters includ-
ed the wealthy and the poor, the highly educated and those without
schooling, the old and the young, and rural and urban people alike.
How did this happen? One commonly heard explanation is that,
unlike in his previous campaigns, this time public relations wizards
took charge of AMLO’s messaging and skillfully used social media.
Another reason has to do with the fact that AMLO has been
campaigning since 2006, becoming Mexico’s best-known politician.
But the most important reason is that, whereas in 2006 and 2012
voters might have seen the election as a referendum on AMLO, in
2018 voters saw the election as a referendum on the PRI. A case can
certainly be made that AMLO’s victory was not of his own making.
The Mexican ancien régime seems to be entering an advanced stage
of decay. Peña Nieto’s administration was marred by outstanding
levels of self-dealing, permitting or even promoting a series of
governors who engaged in wholesale corruption, remarkable even
by the PRI’s historical standards.
Furthermore, although President Peña Nieto succeeded early in
his administration in garnering support for his “structural re-
forms”—supposedly necessary to get Mexico on track to broad-
based economic prosperity—he was in the end unable to close the
deal. Had these reforms succeeded, private investment in the energy
sector would likely have increased oil production to levels reminis-
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Angel Jaramillo Torres
cent of times past, when Mexico was one of the world leaders in
energy exports. But these hopes were never realized. Moreover, Peña
Nieto’s administration unsuccessfully undertook a modernization of
the education system, attempting to introduce more meritocratic
evaluation, with the goal of reducing the power of the formidable
Mexican teachers’ union. AMLO, however, rejected such a reform
on the grounds that its intention was punitive rather than rehabilita-
tive. In the end, Peña Nieto failed to convince most Mexicans that
his education reform would bring Mexican children into the twenty-
first century.
Peña Nieto’s attempts to grapple with the challenges posed by
drug-trafficking cartels also failed. This problem can be traced back
to the strategy devised by President Felipe Calderón, who, after his
election in 2006, decided to attack head-on the power of the cartels
that had robbed the Mexican state of its monopoly on legitimate
violence in some areas of its territory. The strategy backfired, giving
rise to high levels of violence across northern and central Mexico as
the cartels dug in and reconstituted themselves. Notwithstanding
Calderón’s obviously flawed policy for confronting the drug traf-
fickers, Peña Nieto failed to change gears and doubled down on
Calderon’s brutal yet ineffective strategy. As bodies piled up and
thousands of victims began to raise their voices, it became apparent
that Peña Nieto presided over one of the bloodiest eras in Mexican
history since the Revolution.
As if that were not enough, the scandal of Ayotzinapa also took
place on Peña Nieto’s watch. Under circumstances never entirely
explained, forty-three students simply disappeared from the face of
the earth in the state of Guerrero. The issue remained in the
headlines and became a topic of international concern for years. In a
word, the highly visible failures of Peña Nieto and his team should
not be overlooked as an explanation of the election outcome.
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On the other hand, the PRI was born at a time when nationalist
parties with a monopolizing agenda had become fashionable in
Europe and elsewhere. Although the PRI was not fascist by any
stretch of the imagination, its creation was inspired by the same
motives as its cousins in Europe. Nevertheless, it could also be
argued that Mexico’s PRI bears a closer resemblance to a different
political landscape: corruption and clientelism under the PRI is
perhaps more reminiscent of how politics played out in eighteenth
century Britain under Whig leadership. In the case of Mexico, the
party was meant to represent the state and the Mexican society at
large. It was not just a party, but a way of life. Despite fostering a
merely simulated democracy and promoting political control over
the population, the PRI did significantly contribute to the political
stability of the country. As the political scientist Rafael Segovia has
argued, the PRI saved Mexico from two worse destinies—Marxist-
inspired, guerrilla-motivated military coups and right-wing military
dictatorships, fashionable during most of the twentieth century in
Latin America.
Despite its achievements, however, the era of the PRI seems to
have finally reached its end. The new political hegemon in Mexico is
now AMLO’s party, MORENA, and it has a great opportunity to
turn Mexico around.
AMLO’S MOMENT
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André Breton called Mexico the chosen land of surrealism. And the
end of the technocratic political regime may be leading Mexico to
the renaissance of a baroque political culture: a communitarian
fervor pushed forward by a voluntaristic leader with no convincing
project as to where to go.
The 2018 presidential election might be the first in the history of
modern Mexico in which the chief divide was not that between the
Right and the Left but that between the establishment and those
who rejected it. Another important difference between the 2018
election and the two prior elections when AMLO was on the ballot
(2006 and 2012) was the international context. The most recent
Mexican election was part of a wave of populist political movements
all over the world. What Victor Orban calls “illiberal democracy”
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and Steve Bannon calls “economic nationalism” has taken the West
by storm. Many other “nationalist” or “populist” leaders have come
on the scene as well—Vladimir Putin of Russia, Jarosław Kaczyński
of Poland, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, Recep Tayyip
Erdogan of Turkey, Matteo Salvini of Italy, and Jair Bolsonaro of
Brazil. Meanwhile, the Western world as a whole seems to be going
through one of its periodic phases of self-criticism. What people are
taking issue with is the Panglossian confidence of the Davos consen-
sus, the belief in the almost magical qualities of technology and
economic liberalism (nowadays jointly exemplified by the so-called
fourth industrial revolution) to transform or replace traditional
political action and sources of meaning. This consensus seems to
have reached a point of diminishing returns. Steven Pinker’s naïve
Enlightenment does not seem to touch the man and woman on the
street. This does not mean that these new movements are not playing
with fire, and they could certainly lead to a dead end. The lessons of
radical politics in the twentieth century should never be forgotten.
The current dilemma can be described thus: Can classical liberal
democracy be compatible with the means and ends of the new
populist movement, whether of the Right or Left? Whatever the
answer might be, Mexican politics can be said to be in sync with the
times.
Just recently, Steve Bannon, in an interview with the Economist,
named López Obrador as part of the populist movement he calls
economic nationalism. Although AMLO’s view of the world may be
much different than Bannon’s, he intuitively understands the im-
portance of Mexico’s turn to more nationalistic policies and away
from globalization. Tatiana Clouthier, AMLO’s charismatic spokes-
woman during the campaign, once tweeted that Mexicans should
start buying Mexican products rather than foreign ones. This re-
minds us of “Make America Great Again.” AMLO’s fourth trans-
formation can be interpreted as a moment of Mexican aloofness
from the world. What Octavio Paz identified in his Labyrinth of
Solitude as the temptation of the Mexicans to conceal themselves
from the world coincides with its northern neighbor’s moment of
turning inward.
If asked, AMLO would certainly deny any resemblance between
MORENA and right-wing populist movements. He and his followers
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