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Severe wind and derechos
Wind reports by year
Tons of reports these days! A lot of population bias, plus way more spotters… and trees fall in sub-severe winds.
Derecho quick facts
• Widespread (long track) wind
damage swath from convective
storm line/arc (> 240 nmi, wind
criteria)
• Damage and societal disruption on
par with that of landfalling
hurricane or major tornado
outbreak (Ashley and Mote, 2005)
• Peak months = June, July, August
• Defining event = June 29, 2012 Ohio
Valley-Mid Atlantic Derecho
• The singular warm season severe
event that now strikes
fear/panic/anxiety in people
Derecho climatology
• 1996-2013 (Guastini and Bosart,
2016)
• Summertime progressive
derecho corridor
• Upper Midwest-Ohio
Valley maximum
• Abrupt decrease in
frequency @
Appalachians
• A few slip lee of the
mountains
A typical derecho setup
July 4, 1980 derecho
2
1
12
10
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1998
2009
Increased Mid-Atlantic supercells? Some indication big hail days are more frequent, but remains rather variable.
Mid-Atlantic tornadoes
This is NOT a
Mid-Atlantic tornado
Tornado quick facts
• Consistent if sporadic tornado
activity through warm season, from Timonium, MD
Apr through Sep (and Oct this year!)
June 23, 2015
• Peak tends to come w/ thunderstorm
peak but varies. Jun-Jul favored, Sep if
tropical. Apr some years.
• PA only state in region with F/EF5,
during major May 1985 outbreak.
VA and MD have seen F/EF4. All
other, max is F/EF3.
• Largest outbreaks in region by
numbers: Hurricane Ivan – Sep 17- College Park, MD F3 – Sep 24, 2001
18, 2004 (33) and Jul 27, 1994 (25)
Title stuff
Typical Mid-Atlantic tornado event setup
• Low pressure west and/or
northwest; sometimes more
than one – one in lakes, one Timonium, MD
elsewhere June 23, 2015
• Warm fronts often key;
tropical systems; leeside
trough; squall lines and
derechos; bay breeze, and
terrain influence
• Low instability/high shear;
supercells
• “Backed” winds, usually from
southeast at surface
Typical Mid-Atlantic tornado event setup
Timonium, MD
June 23, 2015