Professional Documents
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Value Score 0% 0% 0% 0%
P/E (F1) 14.61
P/E (F1) Rel to Industry -23.92 Q1 (Current Qtr) Q2 (Next Qtr) F1 (Current Year) F2 (Next Year)
PEG Ratio 1.95 Revisions: 0 Revisions: 0 Revisions: 0 Revisions: 0
Up: 0 Down: 0 Up: 0 Down: 0 Up: 0 Down: 0 Up: 0 Down: 0
P/S (F1) 3.28
Growth Score
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 2.79% 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current
Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days
Hist. EPS Growth (Q0/Q-1) 1.85 Q1 0% Q2 0% F1 0% F2 0%
Qtr CFO Growth -10.07
Momentum Score Most Accurate: 0.55 Most Accurate: 0.55 Most Accurate: 2.15 Most Accurate: 2.21
Zacks Consensus: 0.55 Zacks Consensus: 0.55 Zacks Consensus: 2.15 Zacks Consensus: 2.21
1 week Volume change -3.77%
Q1 0.00% Q2 0.00% F1 0.00% F2 0.00%
1 week Price Cng Rel to Industry -0.35%
Reported: 0.54 Reported: 0.53 Reported: 0.55 Reported: 0.58 Average 4 Qtr
Surprise
Estimate: 0.53 Estimate: 0.50 Estimate: 0.54 Estimate: 0.55
Q End 04/17 Q End 01/17 Q End 10/16 Q End 07/16
© 2017 Zacks Investment Research, All Rights Reserved 10 S. Riverside Plaza Suite 1600 · Chicago, IL 60606
The data on the front page and all the charts in the report represent market data as of 07/31/17, while the report's text is as of
07/18/2017
Overview
Cisco Systems is an IP-based networking company, also offering
other products and services to service providers, companies,
commercial users and individuals. Total revenue was $12.63 billion in
FY16.
Wireless technology includes networking products: wireless LAN controllers, wireless integrated switches and routers, wireless
management software, wireless LAN clients and client software, bridges, antennas and accessories.
Security includes products and services preventing unauthorized access to system resources and protecting from worms, spam, viruses
and other malware. The Data Center product category includes Cisco Unified Computing System (UCS) and Server Access
Virtualization. It also comprises of The Other products segment and Related Services.
In order to counter the threat of SDN, Cisco has devised a strategy of its own, which it is referring to as Application Centric
Infrastructure (ACI). ACI is a comprehensive approach that ties together physical and virtual compute, network and storage by
leveraging centralized policies and orchestration. ACI is made up of new hardware in the Nexus 9000 portfolio and software in the
shape of an updated NX-OS operating system along with the Application Policy Infrastructure Controller (APIC), which is the
centralized point for managing, monitoring and programming the ACI. The solution streamlines operational processes and reduces
operating expenses for power, cooling and cabling. This reduces the total cost of ownership by 75% when compared with software-
only network virtualization. The technology ensures the infrastructure is focused on the application. Nexus 9000 Series switches
deliver high scalability, performance and energy in a compact form factor and are ideal for data center aggregation- and access-
layer deployments in enterprise, service provider, and cloud networks. It is quite encouraging to see that Cisco’s ACI technology is
gaining significant traction with customers. We are positive about Cisco’s strategy to improve its focus on cloud computing.
The company has pioneered a network system, which has been referred to as the Unified Computing System (UCS). This is a
revolutionary blade server system based on x86 architecture that is transforming data centers. The system lowers the cost of
ownership by making the entire data center more network-centric, significantly reducing the number of computers/servers required.
The UCS is intended to simplify the operation of the data center, improving its flexibility and scalability. For this purpose, the
company has tied up with many companies including, Accenture, BMC, EMC, Intel, Microsoft, NetApp, Novell, Oracle, Red Hat and
VMWare. Although a bold initiative, the move placed Cisco on another level. The cost advantage afforded by the UCS system is its
most attractive feature. Therefore, in the current environment, the growing number of data centers across the world is working in
Cisco’s favor. UCS remains a major factor to Cisco's future success as the company builds its Next Generation Data Center stack.
Cisco has resorted to acquisitions to boost its network security capabilities and tap the solid growth prospects in the market.
The company’s recent plans to acquire a cloud-based security company, CloudLock, for $293 will further help the company to
increase its security market share. Cisco's other acquisition of Sourcefire and Meraki, have also been helping the company increase
its security market share.Currently, though the security solutions available in the market have elevated the level of security, the
administrative expenses have also risen exponentially. This has led to a need for an integrated security solution platform that
provides continuous detection, prevention and remediation of security threats without increasing administrative costs. Cisco is
increasingly moving toward an integrated operations and network management system that reduces the overall operating cost for its
primary clients. As the Internet security market is evolving rapidly, we believe these deals are an important move by the company.
Cisco has entered into a number of strategic alliances, striking deals with companies like Accenture Ltd, AT&T, Cap Gemini,Citrix,
EMC , Fujitsu, Intel, International Business Machines Corporation; Italtel SpA; Johnson ControlsInc.; Microsoft Corporation; NetApp,
Inc.; Deutsche Telekom; Oracle Corporation; Red Hat, Inc.; SAP AG; Sprint Nextel Corporation; Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.;
VCE Company, LLC (“VCE”);VMware, Inc.; Wipro Limited; Cloudera, Hortonworks and MapR and others. These alliances have
increased access to new technology, helped innovative product development, facilitated joint sales and marketing programs, and the
creation of new markets.
Cisco has been expanding into what management calls market adjacencies. This is basically a company initiative to use core
competencies supplemented by acquisitions to exploit opportunities in more than 30 adjacent markets. The company has made
some headway in three areas—smart connected communities, small business and smart grids. Management has discussed the
possibility of combining the small business offerings with cloud computing to enable the company’s partners to offer these
Cisco has a very strong balance sheet with around $71.8 billion in cash and highly liquid short-term investments, an increase of
$800 million from the previous quarter. Liquidity is quite good, with cash and short-term investments at roughly 56.2% of total
assets. Management returns value to customers through regular share repurchases and dividends. Cisco recently increased its
quarterly dividend by $0.03 to $0.29 per common share. In the last-reported quarter, Cisco bought back approximately 33 million
shares under the repurchase program.
Reasons To Sell:
Cisco continues to acquire a large number of companies. While this improves revenue Cisco is facing challenges
opportunities, it increases integration risks. The company operates in both developed in China, where it
and emerging economies; therefore there are many cultures and practices that have to generates a huge amount
be incorporated within it. When acquisitions are added to this, not only products and in annual sales. It also
platforms, but also corporate cultures have to be integrated. This takes up management faces the risk of integration
time and effort, which could have been used for organic growth. of acquired business and
from stiff competition.
Cisco has been forced to offer discounts and deals in response to actions by peers due
to stiff competition. The company, together with Juniper, serves almost 80% of the
core router market and enjoys the second position in the market. However, Alcatel-Lucent has now entered the market with its
Extensible Routing System (XRS) 7950 family of core routers. Cisco‘s competitors are revamping their product lines with faster and
power-efficient products. With 15% of Cisco’s sales coming from NGN routers in the reported quarter, the company is likely to feel
competitive pressure. Although the edge business remains strong, the competitive pressure at the core remains intense.
We note that the stock currently has a trailing 12 month P/S ratio of 3.28, which compares unfavorably to some extent with what the
industry saw over the last year. The ratio is higher than the average level of 3.24 and is close to the high end of the valuation range
over this period. Hence, valuation looks slightly stretched from a P/S perspective.
Revenues declined 0.5% year over year to $11.94 billion but beat the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of $11.89 billion. Management had anticipated revenues to decline in the range of
2% or remain flat on a year-over-year basis.
However, Cisco’s fourth-quarter outlook was disappointing. Revenues are anticipated to decline primarily due to lower order growth in
the reported quarter, which affected backlog. Management anticipates order growth to remain weak in the fourth-quarter, similar to the
third-quarter level.
Moreover, ongoing transition to subscription-based model will continue to hurt top-line. The company also expects macro-related
headwinds in the public sector, particularly the U.S. federal government business to impact revenues.
Further, weakness in the service provider business segment in the Americas and intensifying competition from the likes of Huawei in
the emerging markets are other concerns that will continue to hurt top-line growth.
On a year-over-year basis, products (74.4% of total revenue) remained almost flat at $8.89 billion, while services (25.6%) decreased
2.2% to $3.06 billion. Product book-to-bill ratio was greater than 1.
Almost 31% of the revenues were recurring in nature, of which 90% came from the services business. Roughly 10% of the product
revenues were recurring.
Geographically, on a year-over-year basis, revenues from the Americas and EMEA declined 4%, and 6%, respectively. Weak service
provider business in the Americas, foreign currency exchange volatility in the U.K. and oil price related uncertainty in the Middle East
hurt top-line growth.
APJC revenues increased 2% driven by solid growth in India and modest growth in Australia and Japan. Growth in China was affected
by tough year-over-year comparisons (due to service provider video business in the year-ago quarter).
Total emerging markets declined 12% while the BRICs plus Mexico (down 49% year over year) went down 10%.
In terms of customer segments enterprise declined 2%, public sector declined 4% and service provider dipped 10%. However,
commercial grew 3% (not as healthy as management anticipated) in the reported quarter. Weak European market impacted growth in
both enterprise and commercial segments.
Operating Details
Non-GAAP gross margin (including stock-based compensation) contracted 200 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter to 62% in
the reported quarter. The expansion can primarily be attributed to higher service gross margin (up 210 bps).
Operating expenses as percentage of revenues decreased 310 bps to 37.9% primarily owing to decrease in most of the expense line
items. As percentage of revenues, Research and development (R&D), General and Administrative (G&A) and Sales and Marketing
(S&M) expense declined 90 bps, 170 bps and 60 bps, respectively.
As a result, operating margin (including stock-based compensation) expanded 110 bps to 24.2%.
Acquisitions
Cisco completed the acquisition of AppDynamics during the quarter. Moreover, the company announced plans to acquire Viptela and
MindMeld.
Viptela is a privately held software-defined wide area network company. Per Cisco, Viptela combined with its IWAN technology, will
provide an industry-leading cloud-first software-defined (SD) WAN platform that addresses the Edge networking needs of the
company’s most demanding customers. The acquisition is expected to close in the second half of calendar 2017.
MindMeld is a privately held artificial intelligence (AI) company. Cisco expects MindMeld to simplify and enhance the collaboration
experience even further through the power of AI and machine learning.
MindMeld is expected to power new conversational interfaces for Cisco's collaboration products, simplifying user interaction with the
company’s technology as well as increasing ease-of-use and enabling new capabilities simultaneously. The acquisition is anticipated
to close in fourth-quarter fiscal 2017.
Cisco recently announced intent to acquire the Advanced Analytics team and associated advanced analytics intellectual property
developed by Saggezza, a privately held technology services company. The acquisition is expected to close in fourth-quarter fiscal
2017.
Cisco exited the third quarter with cash and investments balance of almost $68 billion compared with $71.8 billion in the prior quarter.
Cash & cash equivalents and investments available in the U.S. at the end of quarter were $2.9 billion.
Cisco repurchased approximately 15 million shares of common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $0.5 billion. As of Apr 29,
2017, the remaining authorized amount under current share repurchase program is approximately $12.9 billion.
Guidance
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2017, revenues are expected to decline in the range of 6–4% on a year-over-year basis. Non-GAAP earnings
are anticipated to be in the range $0.60–$0.62 per share.
Gross margin is expected to be in the range of 63–64%, while operating margin is anticipated between 29.5% and 30.5% for the
quarter.
On Jul 13, 2017, Cisco reportedly acquired Observable Networks, a network behaviour monitoring startup.
On Jun 6, 2017, Cisco declared a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per common share to be paid on Jul 26, 2017 to all shareholders of
record as of the close of business on Jul 7, 2017.
On May 31, 2017, Cisco and IBM announced a collaboration to fight against growing instances of cybercrime. As part of the agreement,
Cisco will create applications for IBM's QRadar security analytics platform.
On May 26, 2017, Cisco completed the acquisition of MindMeld, an artificial intelligence company.
Value Score - -
Cash/Price 4.07 -1.65 9.94 1.12 -11.87 9.52
EV/EBITDA 7.46 7.46 12.68 11.77 8.48 13.45
PEG Ratio 1.95 1.90 1.98 31.57 NA 1.40
Price/Book (P/B) 2.41 1.96 3.19 2.00 2.10 1.38
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 12.15 3.59 13.51 13.82 15.93 13.50
P/E (F1) 14.61 20.35 18.78 210.50 21.67 20.35
Price/Sales (P/S) 3.28 2.12 2.47 2.17 1.12 2.62
Earnings Yield 6.82% 0.51% 5.27% 0.48% 4.43% 4.86%
Debt/Equity 0.43 0.00 0.68 0.57 0.00 0.13
Cash Flow ($/share) 2.60 0.23 5.43 1.18 3.72 3.43
Growth Score - -
Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) 2.79% -19.79% 7.13% -91.43% -15.57% 5.81%
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 0.57% -17.78% 9.33% -92.41% -17.78% 1.66%
Curr. Cash Flow Growth 3.05% -1.53% 5.35% 0.92% 22.96% 24.00%
Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) 4.89% 4.87% 6.55% 4.87% 2.34% 40.32%
Current Ratio 3.52 2.70 1.35 2.48 2.94 1.75
Debt/Capital 30.15% 0.00% 41.73% 36.40% 0.00% 11.46%
Net Margin 20.61% -2.60% 9.63% 2.54% 5.42% 1.60%
Return on Equity 16.93% 6.41% 15.87% 12.49% 11.29% 6.41%
Sales/Assets 0.39 0.70 0.54 0.48 1.22 0.33
Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) -2.57% 0.00% 4.95% 1.95% 4.20% -1.76%
Momentum Score - -
Daily Price Chg -0.22% 0.00% 0.02% 0.40% -4.49% -0.72%
1 Week Price Chg -0.35% 0.94% -0.00% 0.94% 9.07% 3.16%
4 Week Price Chg 0.38% 0.00% 1.08% -0.24% 9.99% -0.86%
12 Week Price Chg -8.28% 0.00% 3.44% 0.32% 4.13% 1.62%
52 Week Price Chg 2.34% -2.56% 10.43% 36.99% -9.35% 25.18%
20 Day Average Volume 16,641,368 29,260 0 5,475,055 384,588 921,765
(F1) EPS Est 1 week change 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.45% 0.44%
(F1) EPS Est 4 week change 0.00% 0.00% 0.28% 0.00% -0.45% 0.44%
(F1) EPS Est 12 week change -1.07% -12.94% 1.00% 20.00% -0.45% -6.09%
(Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -7.21%
Agreement
This is the extent which brokerage analysts are revising their earnings estimates in the same
direction. The greater the percentage of estimates being revised higher, the better the score for this
component.
For example, if there were 10 estimate revisions over the last 60 days, with 8 of those revisions up,
and the other 2 down, then the agreement factor would be 80% positive. If, however, 8 were to the
downside with only 2 of them up, then the agreement factor would be 80% negative. The higher the
percentage of agreement the better.
Magnitude
This is a measure based on the size of the recent change in the current consensus estimates. The
Zacks Rank looks at the magnitude of these changes over the last 60 days.
In the chart to the right, the display shows the consensus estimate from 60-days ago, 30-days ago,
7-days ago, and the most current estimate The difference between the current estimate and the
estimate from 60-days ago is displayed as a percentage. A larger positive percentage increase will
score better on this component.
Upside
This is the difference between the most accurate estimate, as calculated by Zacks, and the
consensus estimate. For example, a stock with a consensus estimate of $1.00, and a most
accurate estimate of $1.05 will have an upside factor of 5%.
This is not an indication of how much a stock will go up or down. Instead, it's a measure of the
difference between these two estimates. This is particularly useful near earnings season as a
positive upside percentage can be used to help predict a future surprise.
Surprise
The Zacks Rank also factors in the last few quarters of earnings surprises. Companies that have
positively surprised in the recent past have a tendency of positively surprising again in the future (or
missing if they recently missed).
A stock with a recent track record of positive surprises will score better on this factor than a stock
with a history of negative surprises. These stocks will have a greater likelihood of positively
surprising again.
Academic research has proven that stocks with the best Growth, Value, and Momentum Growth Score
characteristics outperform the market. The Zacks Style Scores rate stocks on each of these
individual styles and assigns a rating of A, B, C, D and F. An A, is better than a B; a B is better than Momentum Score
a C; and so on.
VGM Score
As an investor, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. That means buying
stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2, Strong Buy or Buy, which also has a Style Score of an A or a B.